Chicago Cubs 2021 season

#901      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
Mainly, that it makes it easier for base stealers, especially when sliding.

One of the things instant replay has taught us is that it’s actually really hard to maintain contact with the base after running full speed and then coming to a complete stop.

Guys that used to be safe because “they beat the throw” are now being called out because they didn’t maintain contact with the base.

Making the base a bit bigger would give the runner just a little extra leeway.
It also slightly shortens the basepaths, which matters when we're talking about fractions of a second.

And with other changes designed around reducing pitcher velocity thus the speed of the ball to home plate (pitch clock, batter minimums) and limiting pickoff throws, it all adds up to make the running game more favorable.

Don't ban shifts. Players just need to learn to hit again. Get 10 hits in a row to the opposite field, they will stop.

A random thought I had: since we're getting rid of the DH, why not retain some difference between AL and NL by banning shifts in one but not the other?

Because if they're going to play the exact same baseball in AL and NL and normalize interleague play the way they have, they should really just consider scrapping that entirely and going with four regional leagues in the East, South, Midwest, and West.
 
#902      
If Stripling’s account is accurate, or if it just accurately reflects how players are perceiving owners’ negotiating tactics, then we can probably just forget about a baseball season in 2022. The players don’t think the owners are negotiating in good faith.

(ETA - and IMHO, the players are probably right.)

 
#903      
The pickoff limitation seems odd to me. I know it’s annoying when a pitcher goes to first 6 times…

But if you limit it to 2, and the pitcher uses both…it guarantees to the base runner that the next movement the pitcher makes is going home…gving the runner the ultimate advantage (unless it’s a lefty pitcher).

I guess the whole cat/mouse game between the pitcher and runner would be with that first pickoff attempt…but after that I bet we don’t see many other moves toward first.

So if the intent is the shorten the game and/or get more RISP I guess it achieves it. But it just seems odd to me. (I’m also out of touch with baseball so maybe this is a great thing)
 
#904      
The pickoff limitation seems odd to me. I know it’s annoying when a pitcher goes to first 6 times…

But if you limit it to 2, and the pitcher uses both…it guarantees to the base runner that the next movement the pitcher makes is going home…gving the runner the ultimate advantage (unless it’s a lefty pitcher).

I guess the whole cat/mouse game between the pitcher and runner would be with that first pickoff attempt…but after that I bet we don’t see many other moves toward first.

So if the intent is the shorten the game and/or get more RISP I guess it achieves it. But it just seems odd to me. (I’m also out of touch with baseball so maybe this is a great thing)

Last year was the lowest number of stolen bases for a full season since 1973. There were 1000 fewer stolen bases in 2021 than there were in 2012.

The complaints that there’s less action in the game are real. Limiting pick off throws would definitely make more stuff happen.
 
#905      
Last year was the lowest number of stolen bases for a full season since 1973. There were 1000 fewer stolen bases in 2021 than there were in 2012.

The complaints that there’s less action in the game are real. Limiting pick off throws would definitely make more stuff happen.

Noted. And as per the usual I’ll defer to you @champaignchris with your stats driven explanations. 👍🏻👍🏻
 
#906      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
The complaints that there’s less action in the game are real.
I made a very nerdy spreadsheet about this awhile back pulling data from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference.

Essentially looking at both the growth in "three true outcomes" (HR, K, BB) and decline in SB attempts, along with the lengthening time of game. There are both fewer moments of action and a longer game, they compound one another.

The crucial column there is the "Mins/Play" one, essentially how many minutes go by between plays in the field (either a ball hit in play or a SB attempt) in the average game.

2.4 minutes in 1976, under 3 minutes as late as 2005, 3.3 minutes even in 2015, 3.9 minutes last year and taking a jump every year now.

Bring back the old baseball!

MLB Pace.jpg
 
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#907      
I made a very nerdy spreadsheet about this awhile back pulling data from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference.

Essentially looking at both the growth in "three true outcomes" (HR, K, BB) and decline in SB attempts, along with the lengthening time of game. There are both fewer moments of action and a longer game, they compound one another.

The crucial column there is the "Mins/Play" one, essentially how many minutes go by between plays in the field (either a ball hit in play or a SB attempt) in the average game.

2.4 minutes in 1976, under 3 minutes as late as 2005, 3.3 minutes even in 2015, 3.9 minutes last year and taking a jump every year now.

Bring back the old baseball!

View attachment 15892

That’s crazy!

Even though I’m a Cubs fan, I can’t help but thinking of Ozzy Smith and how much less valuable he’d be in today’s game, how many fewer opportunities he would have had to show off his talents.

I really do think today’s players are more athletic and more talented than they’ve ever been. They just have so many fewer opportunities to show it.
 
#908      
Are we really surprised by guys who made their fortune off of penny pinching, trying to once again do the same? Of course they're gonna try and squeeze every last drop of profit out of these teams.

Not siding with the owners, but this is far from a shocking outcome.
 
#910      
Are we really surprised by guys who made their fortune off of penny pinching, trying to once again do the same? Of course they're gonna try and squeeze every last drop of profit out of these teams.

Not siding with the owners, but this is far from a shocking outcome.
Agreed. With revenue sharing every single owner is basically guaranteed a significant profit. I understand it's a business and making money is the name of the game, but they have eliminated all the risk associated with running a business.

Billionaires fighting with millionaires over a couple percentages is a bad look for everyone. Play the dang games.
 
#911      
Agreed. With revenue sharing every single owner is basically guaranteed a significant profit. I understand it's a business and making money is the name of the game, but they have eliminated all the risk associated with running a business.

Billionaires fighting with millionaires over a couple percentages is a bad look for everyone. Play the dang games.

I’m not trying to single you out, because I hear it all over the place.

I’ve really grown to hate the whole “millionaires versus billionaires” thing. Every owner is a billionaire. Not all, or even a majority, of players are millionaires. They make mid-six figures for about three years and then have to go get a real job.

It’s really easy to point at Max Scherzer making $40 million a year, but forget that his Dodgers teammate Zach Reks made about $4k plus his ~$14k minor league salary with absolutely no guarantee that he’ll even be on a MLB roster next year.
 
#912      

ChiefGritty

Chicago, IL
I’ve really grown to hate the whole “millionaires versus billionaires” thing. Every owner is a billionaire. Not all, or even a majority, of players are millionaires. They make mid-six figures for about three years and then have to go get a real job.
The modal MLB player, the median guy, has a career length of about 2.5 years, so he never reaches salary arbitration, never makes over ~550k per season (then take out Uncle Sam, agent's cut, the absolutely insane local taxation there is for athletes they pay in every road city that no one knows about), spends multiple years in the minors which are essentially pay-to-play at this point, and foregoes a college education for the privilege in the modal case.

They get to live a dream. They make memories that last a lifetime. But they're getting the worst deal out of the four major sports by a country mile, and are under no circumstances making "life changing" money. No grandkids are going to college off the leftovers from a 2 year MLB career.

And then the players who are better than that average have their service time manipulated to exploit them while they're cheap on the front end and face all sorts of mechanisms to weigh down their free agent value on the back end.

This all used to be quite different. And it's profoundly different in the other sports, where only a small percentage make anywhere near the minimum salary. In baseball more than half of the player population is pre-arb and therefore making within 20-30k of the minimum.

And the owners, who in baseball as in other sports have loss-proof monopolies that are ensured by publicly financed facilities, are trying to squeeze MORE of the pie out of the players fingers.

That's why the players are so determined. There are prominent voices among highly paid stars, Scherzer in particular, but the majority of the votes are these guys, and not only are they getting screwed, the whole union can see a future in which becoming a baseball player is basically a fools errand financially, and they feel a responsibility to demand better for future generations.

Plus, as an aside, both parties pay lip service to wanting to combat tanking and make teams put the best product on the field. The player's proposals are serious in that regard, the owners' are a complete joke. Because tanking keeps labor costs down.
 
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#913      
I made a very nerdy spreadsheet about this awhile back pulling data from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference.

Essentially looking at both the growth in "three true outcomes" (HR, K, BB) and decline in SB attempts, along with the lengthening time of game. There are both fewer moments of action and a longer game, they compound one another.

The crucial column there is the "Mins/Play" one, essentially how many minutes go by between plays in the field (either a ball hit in play or a SB attempt) in the average game.

2.4 minutes in 1976, under 3 minutes as late as 2005, 3.3 minutes even in 2015, 3.9 minutes last year and taking a jump every year now.

Bring back the old baseball!

View attachment 15892
This is amazing. I love pitching, it's an art and science rolled into one when done right. But the idea of having to wait 3.5 - 4 minutes for something to happen in the field of play sounds awful (and is, I've watched it).