Chicago Cubs 2026
This isn’t about the Cubs but rather one of their rivals. It also speaks to why stats aren’t the whole story at the minor league level. Teams have a plan for prospects and look for particular development milestones that aren’t always reflected in stats.
Brewers are reportedly bringing up their #17 prospect Tyson Hardin to make a start. I had never heard of him, so I was curious and checked him out. He was drafted in the 12th round in 2024 after being a reliever at Miss St., and tossed a few inning at A ball that year. Last year he had a solid year starting at A+ (11 games) and finishing at AA (10 games). This year he was sent back to AA to start the season. There is where it gets interesting.
Again, I know next to nothing about this guy and some type of injury might have played a part of it or it could have been about adding a new pitch or wanting him to alter his pitch sequencing. I am strictly going off the stats. Looking at those, it is hard to say he wasn’t having a worse season repeating the same level — not what you want to see. His ERA went from 3.29 (10 games) to 7.67 (7 games), his WHIP from 1.23 to 1.77, and his opponent BA from .267 to .313. This year at AA he didn’t give up less than two ERs in a game and in his final 3 starts he gave up 14 ERs in 13.2 innings. So what do you do? Promote him to AAA of course. And in 3 games at the higher level, he’s getting fewer strikeouts but averaging a shade over 6 innings an outing (about 4.1 at AA) with an ERA of 0.96, WHIP of 0.91 and opponent BA of .161.
Brewers are reportedly bringing up their #17 prospect Tyson Hardin to make a start. I had never heard of him, so I was curious and checked him out. He was drafted in the 12th round in 2024 after being a reliever at Miss St., and tossed a few inning at A ball that year. Last year he had a solid year starting at A+ (11 games) and finishing at AA (10 games). This year he was sent back to AA to start the season. There is where it gets interesting.
Again, I know next to nothing about this guy and some type of injury might have played a part of it or it could have been about adding a new pitch or wanting him to alter his pitch sequencing. I am strictly going off the stats. Looking at those, it is hard to say he wasn’t having a worse season repeating the same level — not what you want to see. His ERA went from 3.29 (10 games) to 7.67 (7 games), his WHIP from 1.23 to 1.77, and his opponent BA from .267 to .313. This year at AA he didn’t give up less than two ERs in a game and in his final 3 starts he gave up 14 ERs in 13.2 innings. So what do you do? Promote him to AAA of course. And in 3 games at the higher level, he’s getting fewer strikeouts but averaging a shade over 6 innings an outing (about 4.1 at AA) with an ERA of 0.96, WHIP of 0.91 and opponent BA of .161.
Seiya was up next.
Dansby Swanson has transformed himself to an extremely more expensive version of Andrelton Simmons (but with better hair).
Mario Mendoza with a little more power on the occasion that he does hit the ball.
bdutts
- Houston, Texas
With the way the Brewers develop pitchers, I'd copy everything they do...
It is amazing. On May 10, he starts at AA and throws 3.2 innings, giving up 8 hits, 6 ERs, a HR and 2 walks with 3 Ks. His next start is in AAA on May 17 against Iowa. He throws 7 innings giving up 4 hits, 1 ER and 3 walks with 6 Ks. His next two starts he goes 11.2 innings with 6 hits, 1 ER, 4 walks and 12 Ks. Now he’s in the majors. Just crazy! I’d really like to know what he was working on and what prompted the promotion to AAA.
Sometimes promotions in the minors are just number crunches, just like the bigs. Guy gets hurt, and ready or not, next man up. I'd guess he was battling something in his delivery, (maybe tipping pitches) and finally got it straightened out.
Sometimes a guy can just get locked in and stay there for awhile...
In Jake Arrieta 's last 5 starts in Baltimore in 2013, he averaged 9 hits and 6 walks per 9 IP. He gets to Chicago and immediately it's 5 hits and 4 walks... We all know what happened the following 4 years. (What i wouldn't give to watch 2015 Jake Arrieta pitch in a Cub uniform for the rest of the season...)
Let's hope this kid's story is very different. lol
When they traded Durbin for Harrison to Boston this offseason my brother & I knew they just landed another ace. He's easily a MLB top-20 SP this season, and isn't even the best SP on their team. Truly fascinated by their pitching development and analysis.
In semi-hopeful Cubs pitching news, Edward Cabrera is back from his blister/IL stint this weekend against San Francisco.
The promotion to AAA could have been just a numbers game, but on the surface a very strange choice to be promoted. He had a 7.76 ERA, a 1.77 WHIP and hitters were batting .313 against him in 7 starts this year. And it’s not like the bad start right before the promotion just screwed up his numbers. In his final three AA starts, he threw 13.1 innings and had a 9.47 ERA and 1.88 WHIP.
As to Arrieta, very dissimilar situation. He switched organizations and spent 1.5 months at Iowa before pitching with the Cubs, so he and Cubs had time to make adjustments. Hardin is with same organization and there was only 7 days between his last start at AA and his first start at AAA. Obviously, something clicked. Just very curious what it is they were working on.
Boyd is making his second rehab start on Saturday. Hopefully, that’s all he’ll need.
Because he’s only bunted one time in his major league career
Illiniaaron
- Geneseo, IL
They either walk him, or the fly ball he hit scores Hoerner.
I’m still waiting for Bregman to do something. Not much power this far.
I’d rather see Shaw playing 3rd. His defense is better and he has speed. A little undisciplined at the plate. But I’d like to the chance with him. Unfortunately, with Bregman’s contract, he will be playing everyday.
Btw, I believe House is going to regret this signing.
I’d rather see Shaw playing 3rd. His defense is better and he has speed. A little undisciplined at the plate. But I’d like to the chance with him. Unfortunately, with Bregman’s contract, he will be playing everyday.
Btw, I believe House is going to regret this signing.
Between high A & AA last year he pitched to a 2.72 ERA last season. (21 starts)
Sometimes you just bet on regression...
Despite the 7+ ERA, his Strikeouts per 9 innings was 14.8 in April. They were likely betting on his stuff, which apparently is pretty darn good. (I still wonder if he was tipping pitches)
I've said this before on this thread....They should have signed Milwaukee's front office instead of their manager. And it probably would have been cheaper.
Honestly, I'm glad you said this because I said the exact same thing when he was coming up to the plate. I believe that the heart of the Cubs order(3, 4, 5) is the worst in baseball over the last month. We're into double digits with the amount of times that 1 and 2 got on, with nobody out, and they don't only not score, but they don't advance.
It's usually a combination of K, pop out, fly out......Pop out, K, K, etc. Whether it be Bregman, Happ or Suzuki, they can't even get a productive out much less a hit.
Counsell doesn't have the rocks to do it, but if those situations come up, for the foreseeable future....they're bunting. The outcome literally can't be any worse than what they're getting. The K rate in those situations from all three guys is AWFUL.
Also looks like his batting average on balls in play has cratered since the call up. (.435-.316) AA defense might be sub-par too.
If Bregman moves the runners along, at worst it's 2nd and 3rd and only one out. There are a lot of ways to get that runner in from third. There's a decent chance that they walk Seiya to load the bases. A walk or wild pitch gets the run across.
The second Bregman K'd, it means that Seiya or Happ has to come through with a hit and the hasn't been happening very often. Happy has had a K rate of over 50% with RISP. Suzuki not much better.
They either have to start playing small ball in what would be an incredibly embarrassing situation for any of those guys of you have to split them up in the order.
Bregman hasn't earned the right to have any discontent with being told to bunt.
in the words of the immortal Ernie Banks on Home Run Derby in the early 60's, " its home run or nuthin' "
Bregman has been a much better 2nd half hitter in his career. (1st: .262, 2nd: .286) Hopefully that holds up.
He has been lousy at Wrigley (.217) and really good on the road. (.293)
For a guy as pull happy as he is, he isn't generating the slug you'd expect.
In regard to him bunting in that 9th inning situation, it looks like he has attempted a total of 3 bunts in his career...
I'd be ok with the philosophy if we had the home run portion of the quote in effect. Currently, we're solely nuthin.
While it's pretty unorthodox, to say the least.....it can't be worse than what's currently happening. I put Happ and Suzuki right with him. The lack of run production is at their feet. It's abysmal. At this point, let's try something different. Either commit to small ball or break 3, 4, 5 up.
Illiniaaron
- Geneseo, IL
Well, he did get picked off first tonight. If Shaw was playing third this season, I don’t think he would have as high an average, but I think he’s capable of five homers and 19 driven in. He’d also be playing better D for a lot less $$$.