Coaching Carousel (Basketball)

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#176      
BackThatPassUp
grue2 said:
I've heard a rumor that Hamer may stay on in a reduced roll. I'm unsure about that. I saw a bunch of promotions past abilities in the tech field during the tech boom. Corrections within the company rarely worked, especially if there was an accompanying financial correction; Hamer isn't worth 100k of budget IMO. With another 5-10 years of experience, Hamer may turn out to be great. He needs time to learn to mesh theory (data) with reality (experience). The latter is critical for making in game adjustments.
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Data is only as good as your ability to understand the true correlations and causations that creates the data.

People always act as if there were two definitive camps of "analytics" vs "feel" but the two overlap a lot more than we assume. The feel guys just subconsciously use analytics in a lot less formal manner.
 
#177      
Navy_illini
What big ten program do you think has the most unrealistic expectations on what success looks like?
 
#179      
InDaAZ
CoachHooleyHoo said:
Hearing Hamer is likely to stay.
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To top it off, the program is going to honor Hamer by raising his ‘jersey’ to the rafters… 😁
IMG_0270.jpeg
 
#181      
Keisersose
BackThatPassUp said:
Data is only as good as your ability to understand the true correlations and causations that creates the data.

People always act as if there were two definitive camps of "analytics" vs "feel" but the two overlap a lot more than we assume. The feel guys just subconsciously use analytics in a lot less formal manner.
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This is exactly right.
 
#182      
OrangeKrush1981
BackThatPassUp said:
Data is only as good as your ability to understand the true correlations and causations that creates the data.

People always act as if there were two definitive camps of "analytics" vs "feel" but the two overlap a lot more than we assume. The feel guys just subconsciously use analytics in a lot less formal manner.
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That looseness between correlation and causation owes (1) to lack of experimental controls (read it and weep!) and (2) routinely small N. By which I of course mean: too few experimental measures.
 
#184      
JD76
AirNeazy said:
Sorry but this doesn't jive with reality. Tyler was integral in the move to bootyball midseason last year as reported in the Athletic. Then he switched up our offensive philosophy to the 5-out, spam 3's offense this year. If anything, you could make the argument that he was too quick to jump the gun with changing to a different offensive scheme after bootyball worked so well for us last year.
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And who coaches the players to make crisp passes and cuts, to not be sloppy and lazy in execution? Do we have an assistant coach for playing hard, or is that on the 25 yr old prodigy? Getting them to buy in and properly execute a system is probably more important than the system itself.
 
#185      
PasadenaIllini
Second place is 1st loser said:
I'd start by saying that we're off to a great start with Boswell, White and Ivisic already committing to next season. It sounds like Morez is pretty close, if not already done. That's four starters returning. That's a LOT better situation than nobody returning last year. With that being the case, NOW you can supplement the roster using the portal versus building it from scratch. You're bringing back older guys, with continuity, a year under their belt and expectations from day 1. You don't have to search for a leader next year.

I'd say we're in a pretty good spot. How we came into the 2024-2025 season should never happen again.
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Until Hamer and Tyler are confirmed as replaced, I feel completely differently about this. So we get some of our best guys back, but we still have the same braindead offensive and defensive schemes and planning? Better coaching is desperately needed by our team. Unless that's what we get, my concern is that we'll get similar results to this season.
 
#186      
illini0440
PasadenaIllini said:
Until Hamer and Tyler are confirmed as replaced, I feel completely differently about this. So we get some of our best guys back, but we still have the same braindead offensive and defensive schemes and planning? Better coaching is desperately needed by our team. Unless that's what we get, my concern is that we'll get similar results to this season.
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Top 20 offenses are braindead?
 
#187      
illini011
All I want at least is Hamer gone or demoted and Kwa demoted. Xs and Os is the most significant issue right now. Brad needs an assistant who can help make in-game adjustments especially.
 
#188      
WyattEarp
AirNeazy said:
Sorry but this doesn't jive with reality. Tyler was integral in the move to bootyball midseason last year as reported in the Athletic. Then he switched up our offensive philosophy to the 5-out, spam 3's offense this year. If anything, you could make the argument that he was too quick to jump the gun with changing to a different offensive scheme after bootyball worked so well for us last year.
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Well, not really…in this case…and in Tyler’s defense..we didn’t have anyone near as proficient at it as Domask was the previous year. You’ve gotta build your offense around the strengths of your personnel, right?
 
#189      
PasadenaIllini
#190      
lstewart53x3
PasadenaIllini said:
I'm seeing 29th in the NCAA in offensive efficiency this past season.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/offensive-efficiency
but all that aside, I know what my own lying eyes saw having watched every game this season. Lots of standing around the perimeter and chucking 3s with no motion, poor screen setting, and not too much purpose.
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KenPom, which is opponent adjusted, has us at 14 in offensive efficiency this year and #3 in offensive efficiency last year:


Defense is what has killed us the past two years.
 
#191      
Snoopy
mtaylor said:
Illinois lead the Big10 in scoring. Offense wasn't the problem. It was on defense.
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And had a 12-8 record with some head scratching losses to the bottom 1/3rd of the the conference. Tyler may not be the problem, but he isn't the solution either. Maybe further along in his career.

There were tactical decisions being made on offense the might not have been the best game winning strategy. Say trying to play with pace against Duke. Sure, if you are really the most talented team, analyics say you want more possessions. When you are less talented, well more possessions just result in the worst loss in program history.

Or selling out to offensive rebound. Increased scoring, if you do get to the ball, but leaves the team vulnerable on transition D. Against teams like Duke, Maryland and Kentucky, where we didn't have a size or rebounding skill advantage, how many fast breaks were there off misses?
 
#192      
PepeSilvia
illini0440 said:
Top 20 offenses are braindead?
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Last years offense supposedly needed a phone call from Jay Wright before the adjustment was made where the offense took off. Plus any team that had 5th year TJ should be a dominant offense.

Even as a top 20 offense(14th on Kenpom and Bart) id argue they underachieved for their talent level. Also, even if it averaged out to be that 14th best offense it was maddeningly inconsistent from game to game which allowed them drop games that they had no business losing.

Purdue put up the 7th best offense in the country by Kenpom with two players.
 
#193      
WolfpackIllini
illini0440 said:
Top 20 offenses are braindead?
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IMVHO, I think we had a top-20 offense in spite of our brain dead OC team, due to the talent on this team.

There were a few times this season when our boys ran some sets that worked great - like when that Ant guy posted a video analysis, some kind of pick and roll at the top of the key where a guy came free into the lane for a pass and easy bucket.

And when Tomi would be at the top of the key, covered, dish to KJ or Boz a couple steps to the side, and coverage would shift to them, then (KJ or Boz) would kick it right back to Tomi for an open 3.

Nice. Kudos to the OC for those. Why not rinse and repeat? After the Ant guy posted, I watched but never saw that set play again. The Tomi kickback happened a couple times a game; shoulda been double or triple that. Good stuff. But that seemed like all we had.

I am sure there were other set plays run, but mostly what I remember is a lot of driving the lane thru traffic, where the skills of our guys were often seen, but if there was a finish-thru-contact moment, our guys (esp KJ ) either lost the handle, or if they got thru, seldom got the bucket with an and-one. Our guys this year were not strong enough or quick enough to do that, whereas TSJ was, last year. OTOH, Boz (and Tre) had some amazing baseline drives with reverse layups.

I am not a hoops coach, but I suspect a lot of these plays are individual efforts, not something drawn up by an OC.
Unless you give the OC credit for saying "go dribble around like crazy til you see an opening, then drive the lane or baseline for a bucket".

Kudos to our kids for their talent and heart.
And prayers that we bring in an OC to bring out their full potential.
 
#194      
PepeSilvia
WolfpackIllini said:
IMVHO, I think we had a top-20 offense in spite of our brain dead OC team, due to the talent on this team.

There were a few times this season when our boys ran some sets that worked great - like when that Ant guy posted a video analysis, some kind of pick and roll at the top of the key where a guy came free into the lane for a pass and easy bucket.

And when Tomi would be at the top of the key, covered, dish to KJ or Boz a couple steps to the side, and coverage would shift to them, then (KJ or Boz) would kick it right back to Tomi for an open 3.

Nice. Kudos to the OC for those. Why not rinse and repeat? After the Ant guy posted, I watched but never saw that set play again. The Tomi kickback happened a couple times a game; shoulda been double or triple that. Good stuff. But that seemed like all we had.

I am sure there were other set plays run, but mostly what I remember is a lot of driving the lane thru traffic, where the skills of our guys were often seen, but if there was a finish-thru-contact moment, our guys (esp KJ ) either lost the handle, or if they got thru, seldom got the bucket with an and-one. Our guys this year were not strong enough or quick enough to do that, whereas TSJ was, last year. OTOH, Boz (and Tre) had some amazing baseline drives with reverse layups.

I am not a hoops coach, but I suspect a lot of these plays are individual efforts, not something drawn up by an OC.
Unless you give the OC credit for saying "go dribble around like crazy til you see an opening, then drive the lane or baseline for a bucket".

Kudos to our kids for their talent and heart.
And prayers that we bring in an OC to bring out their full potential.
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I think the fact that a team with with a bunch of decent shooters shot so incredibly poorly from 3 is a testament that scored because of talent and they were great on the offensive boards as all of Brad's teams have been not because of offensive scheme.

Its a short season and fairly small sample size so a guy or two having a down year is unremarkable but it seemed like the entire team shot worse from 3 than their abilities would suggest that shot selection and scheme was a huge part of that.

Boswell was a 39% shooter at Arizona and aiot 24% here.
Davis was a 40% shooter that dropped to 34%
Hum was a 41% shooter that dropped to 34%
Kasparis and Riley both looks they should be very good shooters and shot 32%
Even DGL who looks like he should be able to shoot and was an 80% free throw shooter only shot 25%.
Ivisic was solid but I think even he could shoot better that 36%.
 
#195      
Peteronthespot
Disagree. We’re a top 10 regular season program who generally can’t win the big ones in March. We will stay that way until we get another ice in the veins sniper like TSJ or underwood goes. Watch his snap interviews during the Kentucky game this year and U Conn game last year. He was dumbfounded by the obvious questions and it showed on the court
 
#196      
OrangeBlue98
PepeSilvia said:
I think the fact that a team with with a bunch of decent shooters shot so incredibly poorly from 3 is a testament that scored because of talent and they were great on the offensive boards as all of Brad's teams have been not because of offensive scheme.

Its a short season and fairly small sample size so a guy or two having a down year is unremarkable but it seemed like the entire team shot worse from 3 than their abilities would suggest that shot selection and scheme was a huge part of that.

Boswell was a 39% shooter at Arizona and aiot 24% here.
Davis was a 40% shooter that dropped to 34%
Hum was a 41% shooter that dropped to 34%
Kasparis and Riley both looks they should be very good shooters and shot 32%
Even DGL who looks like he should be able to shoot and was an 80% free throw shooter only shot 25%.
Ivisic was solid but I think even he could shoot better that 36%.
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Maybe it's my biases showing, but I felt like we had really good looks in a lot of games as opposed to our shooting being low because of contested shots.

For me, those shooting percentages scream out more for a skills development-type coach. While I do think the offense can always improve (and I've posted plenty on that, so I won't rehash all of that here), I felt like the issues this year were more about players not hitting open shots.
 
#198      
amillini#2
lstewart53x3 said:
KenPom, which is opponent adjusted, has us at 14 in offensive efficiency this year and #3 in offensive efficiency last year:


Defense is what has killed us the past two years.
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14th on Torvik as well. As frustrating as the low shooting percentage was it led to lots of offensive rebounds and second chance points. You can’t ignore that part of it.
 
#199      
Actually...
PepeSilvia said:
Last years offense supposedly needed a phone call from Jay Wright before the adjustment was made where the offense took off. Plus any team that had 5th year TJ should be a dominant offense.

Even as a top 20 offense(14th on Kenpom and Bart) id argue they underachieved for their talent level. Also, even if it averaged out to be that 14th best offense it was maddeningly inconsistent from game to game which allowed them drop games that they had no business losing.

Purdue put up the 7th best offense in the country by Kenpom with two players.
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I thought it was dinner with Jay Wright ?
 
#200      
NarrowJ
PepeSilvia said:
Last years offense supposedly needed a phone call from Jay Wright before the adjustment was made where the offense took off. Plus any team that had 5th year TJ should be a dominant offense.

Even as a top 20 offense(14th on Kenpom and Bart) id argue they underachieved for their talent level. Also, even if it averaged out to be that 14th best offense it was maddeningly inconsistent from game to game which allowed them drop games that they had no business losing.

Purdue put up the 7th best offense in the country by Kenpom with two players.
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Loyer is one of the most efficient offensive players in the entire NCAA.

So you're forgetting about him.

They also shot nearly 50 percent overall and nearly 40 percent from 3 as a team.

We had a top 5 offense last year with really 2-3 guys doing the bulk of the work on offense as well. So it can be done.

If we have to posit that one of the best offenses in the country was ran by a bunch of scrubs then I think it hurts your point more than it helps.
 
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