Coaching Carousel (Football)

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#951      
jamarvelous31
bluemountain said:
NFW is Vandy a top 30 job. Agree with your point about Nashville however. He could make several million $/year and coach with middling success for the next 20 years there if he wanted to. Not a bad gig actually.
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Generational wealth and job security is pretty neat.

The question for Lea, Kiffin & Cigs, is the blueprint repeatable for more than 4 years?
It's a zero sum game and there's a lot of programs out there that are going to spend more resources than your school has to make sure that's not the case..
 
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#952      
Gary J
Nostradamus says that Dabo is in trouble… $50M buyout may save him but Clemson is headed in the wrong direction. Especially for a team desperate to leave the ACC.
 
#953      
the juiceman cometh
jamarvelous31 said:
Generational wealth and job security is pretty neat.

The question for Lea, Kiffin & Cigs, is the blueprint repeatable for more than 4 years?
It's a zero sum game and there's a lot of programs out there that are going to spend more resources than your school has to make sure that's not the case..
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We still pretending Indiana doesn't have money, even after that extension?
 
#954      
band camp
I certainly am not, I have been discussing this topic with my east coast sister who is my best college sports buddy.
Indiana has money, and Ive speculated that IU is in a better finacial situation than Penn St.
 
#955      
mhuml32
Gary J said:
Nostradamus says that Dabo is in trouble… $50M buyout may save him but Clemson is headed in the wrong direction. Especially for a team desperate to leave the ACC.
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$60 million is the number I've seen. Clemson's NIL operation isn't good enough to swallow that cost.
 
#956      
STLini25
Gary J said:
Nostradamus says that Dabo is in trouble… $50M buyout may save him but Clemson is headed in the wrong direction. Especially for a team desperate to leave the ACC.
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100%. BT does not have interest in them and I’m not sure the SEC will either as I’d think South Carolina would be strongly against it. Their choices could be to stay in a very weak ACC that might not even be part of the top level of college football or pay to leave ACC to join B12. They might not have a good path ahead unless SEC bails them out.
 
#957      
jamarvelous31
the juiceman cometh said:
We still pretending Indiana doesn't have money, even after that extension?
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IU has traditionally been on the low end of ability to invest, they have obviously invested of late, but are they going to keep up when others escalate the cost to compete?

They don't have a monopoly on billionaires interested in sports. They're tied for 8th in billionaires in the B10 according to AI.

Cigs obviously believes IU can. Do Kiffin and Lea believe their schools can? They also may not care.
 
#958      
fuddrules
STLini25 said:
Can you provide the data you are referring to? Vanderbilt is a private school so data is very scarce. NIL data is not publicly available so that data is very difficult to know. If you provide your source it would be helpful. Do you even know what Illinois’ NIL is? Or Vandy’s spending or NIL?

But some actually data. It is documented that Vandy is paying their Heisman candidate QB over $2M per year, they are finishing up a $300M stadium renovation and they have a top 10 ten team and one of the best SEC teams so I doubt they are lagging Illinois by 2 to 1. They likely pay their QB more than twice what we pay Luke. They have some dudes and dudes aren’t cheap.
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I was primarily looking at the coaches and where they were at previously. Only the OC is being paid (known pay) the going rate for a top coach. I just don't think where Vandy is pulling assistant coaches from - they have to pay top B1G or SEC pay. Otherwise they'd be pulling better known coaches whereas they seem to be on the economy plan. Not to say their coaches aren't good, those coaches just aren't in a position to command premium pay (yet).

I also wasn't referring to NIL as I assume all B1G and SEC schools are topping at out the 20.5 million. AI provided some info, hence I said, if the data is accurate, which I completely agree, AI is questionable.
 
#959      
Battle89
STLini25 said:
The Athletic just ranked Vandy as 10th best job in SEC which probably means around 16-18th in BT/SEC. Calling Vandy top 30 isn’t controversial.
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This is why I said long-term in my post. I totally agree this year that Vandy is doing something special and is outperforming most or all of the teams you listed. I'm just not sure it's sustainable over many years. And that sustainability level is how I would define something as a 'top job' or not.

However, those words above are exactly what most of the college football world thinks about Illinois and Bret, so point taken.
 
#960      
fuddrules
STL Illini said:
Nashville is known for country music and hot chicken. Yes, the traffic sucks, because so many people want to live there. Nashville is booming not just because of country music and hot chicken. Any type of music you might want to hear you’ll find in Nashville. My wife and I joke that the worst band we hear in Nashville would be the best local band we hear in STL. (Some truth to that)
They have the Titans and Predators. Vandy is beautiful. Concerts galore from every genre. Every kind of food you could want. Large police presence on and around Broadway to keep the vibrant night life as safe as reasonably possible.
Nashville is awesome to this non-country music fan who doesn’t care to eat hot chicken.
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Thank your for the answer. I know Nashville is booming. TN in generally seems to be hot with their low taxes. I don't know much of anything about pro sports. I had to look up the Predators to see what a Predator is. If it's not college, I'm lost other than catching a few minutes of the Bears here and there.

I guess if I lived in Nashville, I'd have Vandy tickets to a few sports, otherwise there's not much there for me.
 
#961      
SoCal Illini
fuddrules said:
Thank your for the answer. I know Nashville is booming. TN in generally seems to be hot with their low taxes. I don't know much of anything about pro sports. I had to look up the Predators to see what a Predator is. If it's not college, I'm lost other than catching a few minutes of the Bears here and there.

I guess if I lived in Nashville, I'd have Vandy tickets to a few sports, otherwise there's not much there for me.
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Username checks out.
 
#962      
the juiceman cometh
TentakilRex said:
Heck I will support you there:

Are these jobs better than jobs are Vandy?

FSU- This job is better than Penn State! Maybe better even better than Michigan

Clemson- another easy yes

Miami- not as good you would think it is, still better than Vandy
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So here are three programs that expect to be in the playoff every year, yet realistically, the ACC is a 1-2 bid conference, so at best, two of these teams are making it in in any given year. And right now, SMU is better than all of them, Louisville is doing well, and there are a number of other programs who are going to have good years from time to time. Basically, a coach taking any of these jobs is almost guaranteed not to live up to expectations. If you're choosing a job, do you really want one where you're set up to fail?

At Vandy, you just have to be one of the top 4/5 Big Ten teams to make the playoff. There is a good chance Vandy will make the playoff more in the next decade than at least one of those historically vaunted ACC teams. And guess what? When Vandy doesn't make the playoff, fans won't be calling for the coach's head.

GA Tech, also on your list, doesn't have the same weight of expectation, but also has a far worse chance of making the playoff year-to-year. Again, the ACC is at most a 2-bid conference. What's easier, making GT a top-2 ACC team or Vandy a top-5 SEC team? I would go with the latter.

Same issue with the Big 12 - at most 2 of those schools are making the playoff in any given year. Yet you've listed almost every job in the Big 12 as being better than Vandy.

And then there's the resources issue. Every single year the gap between the Big Ten/SEC and Big 12/ACC grows. That's going to mean less money for the assistant pool, potential problems with fully allocating the revenue share, less money for facilities, potentially less NIL money. Some of these programs may get lucky and get an opportunity to bolt for the Big Ten or SEC. The majority won't, and will be even worse off when that happens. Over time, what remains of the ACC and Big 12 will get a lot closer to the G5 than the P2. You might have a couple programs who continue to do well, kind of the equivalent of Gonzaga in basketball, but with the way things are going membership in the Big Ten or SEC is almost going to be a pre-requisite for being taken seriously.
 
#963      
bluemountain
the juiceman cometh said:
So here are three programs that expect to be in the playoff every year, yet realistically, the ACC is a 1-2 bid conference, so at best, two of these teams are making it in in any given year. And right now, SMU is better than all of them, Louisville is doing well, and there are a number of other programs who are going to have good years from time to time. Basically, a coach taking any of these jobs is almost guaranteed not to live up to expectations. If you're choosing a job, do you really want one where you're set up to fail?

At Vandy, you just have to be one of the top 4/5 Big Ten teams to make the playoff. There is a good chance Vandy will make the playoff more in the next decade than at least one of those historically vaunted ACC teams. And guess what? When Vandy doesn't make the playoff, fans won't be calling for the coach's head.

GA Tech, also on your list, doesn't have the same weight of expectation, but also has a far worse chance of making the playoff year-to-year. Again, the ACC is at most a 2-bid conference. What's easier, making GT a top-2 ACC team or Vandy a top-5 SEC team? I would go with the latter.

Same issue with the Big 12 - at most 2 of those schools are making the playoff in any given year. Yet you've listed almost every job in the Big 12 as being better than Vandy.

And then there's the resources issue. Every single year the gap between the Big Ten/SEC and Big 12/ACC grows. That's going to mean less money for the assistant pool, potential problems with fully allocating the revenue share, less money for facilities, potentially less NIL money. Some of these programs may get lucky and get an opportunity to bolt for the Big Ten or SEC. The majority won't, and will be even worse off when that happens. Over time, what remains of the ACC and Big 12 will get a lot closer to the G5 than the P2. You might have a couple programs who continue to do well, kind of the equivalent of Gonzaga in basketball, but with the way things are going membership in the Big Ten or SEC is almost going to be a pre-requisite for being taken seriously.
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Vandy has had exactly 0 playoff caliber teams in their history. Coming into this year, their best team went 8-4 and they have NEVER finished in the top 5 in the SEC. Every single team in the SEC has a far better football history than Vandy does - there is nobody even close. Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, LSU, Oklahoma and Texas are all national powers historically with massive fan bases and funding. Not only does Vandy have to be better than 3 or 4 of these teams to make a playoff, they also have to be better than Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Auburn and Missouri, who all have strong histories and massive funding. And if they can somehow also be better than these 4, they also have to beat out Arkansas, Kentucky, South Carolina and Mississippi State, who all look at Vandy as their ideal homecoming opponent.

What you are seeing out of Vandy this year is a once in a century type of thing. The chances of it happening again in our lifetime are extremely small. Given all this, you are telling me Vandy has a better chance of making a playoff than a school such as Clemson or Georgia Tech - that it is more likely Vandy will be a top 5 SEC team than it is that Ga Tech is a top 2 ACC team?
 
#964      
the juiceman cometh
bluemountain said:
Vandy has had exactly 0 playoff caliber teams in their history. Coming into this year, their best team went 8-4 and they have NEVER finished in the top 5 in the SEC. Every single team in the SEC has a far better football history than Vandy does - there is nobody even close. Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, LSU, Oklahoma and Texas are all national powers historically with massive fan bases and funding. Not only does Vandy have to be better than 3 or 4 of these teams to make a playoff, they also have to be better than Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Auburn and Missouri, who all have strong histories and massive funding. And if they can somehow also be better than these 4, they also have to beat out Arkansas, Kentucky, South Carolina and Mississippi State, who all look at Vandy as their ideal homecoming opponent.

What you are seeing out of Vandy this year is a once in a century type of thing. The chances of it happening again in our lifetime are extremely small. Given all this, you are telling me Vandy has a better chance of making a playoff than a school such as Clemson or Georgia Tech - that it is more likely Vandy will be a top 5 SEC team than it is that Ga Tech is a top 2 ACC team?
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For one - yes.

It is easier for ANY team in the SEC to make the playoff than ANY team in the ACC. That's just a matter of numbers. If you are going somewhere as a head coach the fundamental belief you have is that you can do a good job. Given that, going forward, Vandy will have more money coming in than Clemson or GT, in the long run Vandy will have better resources than either. So given that you believe you are the right guy to turn resources into wins, where is it easier to make a playoff? The 16 team conference getting 4 or 5 in, or the 17 team conference getting 1 or 2 in?

Second, is this really the only factor in deciding which job is better? I think another way to measure how good a job is could be the delta between the expectations of your boss and the odds of you meeting those expectations. By that standard, Clemson is the worst job of the three you mention, even if it gives you the highest odds of making the playoffs.

Finally, the Big Ten and the SEC are, by far, the biggest conferences in the sport, and that gap is only widening. I mean, would you rather take a job coaching a bad NFL franchise or a really good, well-run CFL franchise? If you chose NFL, then you'd probably also rather take a stab at trying to win in the Big Ten or SEC, even if it's unlikely.
 
#965      
OrangeBlue98
Not going to lie-I originally read this as “country music and hot chicks”, which isn’t incorrect based on the times I’ve visited Nashville. The question is how many of them are out of towners compared to natives…….
 
#967      
STLini25
bluemountain said:
Vandy has had exactly 0 playoff caliber teams in their history. Coming into this year, their best team went 8-4 and they have NEVER finished in the top 5 in the SEC. Every single team in the SEC has a far better football history than Vandy does - there is nobody even close. Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, LSU, Oklahoma and Texas are all national powers historically with massive fan bases and funding. Not only does Vandy have to be better than 3 or 4 of these teams to make a playoff, they also have to be better than Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Auburn and Missouri, who all have strong histories and massive funding. And if they can somehow also be better than these 4, they also have to beat out Arkansas, Kentucky, South Carolina and Mississippi State, who all look at Vandy as their ideal homecoming opponent.

What you are seeing out of Vandy this year is a once in a century type of thing. The chances of it happening again in our lifetime are extremely small. Given all this, you are telling me Vandy has a better chance of making a playoff than a school such as Clemson or Georgia Tech - that it is more likely Vandy will be a top 5 SEC team than it is that Ga Tech is a top 2 ACC team?
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Any analysis has to put a heavy focus on post NIL positioning for how a school is positioned for the future. Non BT/SEC are not positioned well for the future. A few will be fine (North Carolina, FSU, Miami and a couple others) All other non BT SEC schools are not positioned well. Competitiveness pre-NIL has very little relevance.
 
#968      
Battle89
fuddrules said:
Thank your for the answer. I know Nashville is booming. TN in generally seems to be hot with their low taxes. I don't know much of anything about pro sports. I had to look up the Predators to see what a Predator is. If it's not college, I'm lost other than catching a few minutes of the Bears here and there.

I guess if I lived in Nashville, I'd have Vandy tickets to a few sports, otherwise there's not much there for me.
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Just my personal experience from my little corner of the world, so take it as you will, but I have multiple people in both my family and friends groups who are planning to retire in Tennessee. All originally from here (Chicago area). Hotter than hot as a retirement destination around here. And those that don't pick Tennessee are choosing Texas.
 
#969      
mattcoldagelli
bluemountain said:
Vandy has had exactly 0 playoff caliber teams in their history.
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Who cares? The 12-team playoff is one (1) year old. The NIL Era is in toddlerhood. These are the timelines that matter, not whether Joe Bob McDougal put up numbers in the 1974 Tangerine Bowl.

bluemountain said:
What you are seeing out of Vandy this year is a once in a century type of thing. The chances of it happening again in our lifetime are extremely small.
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Do you know how many times this was said about Indiana last year?
 
#970      
bluemountain
STLini25 said:
Any analysis has to put a heavy focus on post NIL positioning for how a school is positioned for the future. Non BT/SEC are not positioned well for the future. A few will be fine (North Carolina, FSU, Miami and a couple others) All other non BT SEC schools are not positioned well. Competitiveness pre-NIL has very little relevance.
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How well can Vandy compete in terms of NIL (I honestly don't know)? If the SEC is concerned with eyeballs and revenue, why wouldn't they dump Vandy (and Miss State for that matter) and add FSU and Miami or UNC? Same with the BIG and Northwestern - other than tradition, why hang onto a school with no following when you can add a UNC?
 
#971      
LFOD
Battle89 said:
Just my personal experience from my little corner of the world, so take it as you will, but I have multiple people in both my family and friends groups who are planning to retire in Tennessee. All originally from here (Chicago area). Hotter than hot as a retirement destination around here. And those that don't pick Tennessee are choosing Texas.
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TN ... we're number 3 in the nation in violent crime. As they say, you come down for the music and BBQ, and you stay 'cause you got murdered.

Vandy is a nice campus, however.
 
#972      
STLini25
bluemountain said:
How well can Vandy compete in terms of NIL (I honestly don't know)? If the SEC is concerned with eyeballs and revenue, why wouldn't they dump Vandy (and Miss State for that matter) and add FSU and Miami or UNC? Same with the BIG and Northwestern - other than tradition, why hang onto a school with no following when you can add a UNC?
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Bylaws don’t allow it
 
#973      
Ramrod2010
mattcoldagelli said:
Who cares? The 12-team playoff is one (1) year old. The NIL Era is in toddlerhood. These are the timelines that matter, not whether Joe Bob McDougal put up numbers in the 1974 Tangerine Bowl.



Do you know how many times this was said about Indiana last year?
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Regarding the bolded, I think it's fair to call out that the one year at Indiana coincided with Cigs whereas Clark Lea has gone 2-10, 5-7, 2-10, 7-6.

So while the landscape is different in CFB I think it's reasonable to look at what Vandy (and Lea) have done and not be sold on their future prospects.
 
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