His numbers without Hankwitz aren’t that good
Coaching Carousel (Football)
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His numbers without Hankwitz aren’t that good
The problem with this kind of chart is you see what look like wild swings in any coach's tenure on here, because of course SP+ changes drastically from year to year.
If you drill down, what this graph shows is one season (2021) that was pretty average by Wisconsin standards (the circle right before the one with the arrow about Chryst being fired - practically even with both of Gary Anderson's seasons and better or equal to all but two of Bielema's) followed by a bad-ish start (losing to 2 ranked teams and an Illinois team that ended up 8-4) in 2022, and then Chryst was fired. And its hard to say whether that season would have been as bad if he had been retained - certainly a HC being fired can affect a team negatively. What really impresses upon me is that the bad-looking 4-3 COVID year is actually really liked by this chart. That makes his firing even more confounding!
By this metric, Barry Alvarez should have been fired after the 1997 season, which was way worse of a backslide than anything under Chryst, and was the lowest point of a prolonged 4-season regression. Of course, immediately after that, Alvarez won back to back Rose Bowls (which he followed up by backsliding again for the next two seasons).
And looking more, this chart actually makes the case for keeping Zook (and I am NOT one of those people)! By this metric, 2011 was not that far off from Zook's peak and was well above Illinois' typical standard.
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I kind of liked Zook. The comedy of his coaching combined with his incredible recruiting of talent made for some interesting games. The recruiting lost some of it's shine so I get why people were ready to move on.
11/10/07
He was terrible his last four seasons
I read this quite differently - it looks to me as though Chryst was operating at a consistently high level with the exception of his 5 games in 2022.
I get what you are saying....UW had plateaued, albeit at a very high level, and the powers that be wanted to take it up a notch and compete for national titles. It was a high risk move with a high likelihood of failure - this type of move seems to work when it is done by a traditional powerhouse (eg OSU firing John Cooper and hiring Tressel), but I can't think of a situation in which a non-power that was winning 9 or 10 games/year benefited from firing their coach.
Yeah, I don't understand how his reputation is what it is. Yes, I get that Northwestern has been historically bad, but after a decade and a half of building up the program...he jammed the absolute three worst seasons of his entire tenure into a four year span (and the one outlier season in that 4-year span was the Covid year). He went 1-11 his last season, which was a worse record than either of his two predecessors ever recorded. His successor managed to take that 1-11 team and turn it into an 8-5 record in his first year. Clearly, whatever magic he displayed earlier in his tenure was all used up by the end.
Sounds familiar. Ped State?
In this scenario you have Clemson, LSU, FL, PSU, OU and USC (by domino), all looking for dudes who can win a big game, so they hire retread coaches that couldn't elsewhere?
But honestly you're probably not wrong, this cycle has too much money and too few adults in charge not to be wild.
....he had a top 10 team in one of those seasons and the year he was axed the team won 8 games?
It's Northwestern, the fact that he had a 9-10 win season every 2 to 3 years is very impressive (a covid 8 win season is still impressive).
He also oversaw a program with institutionalized sexual assault, so I personally wouldn't hire him.
The year he was axed the team won one game (which was Nebraska in week zero). One of, if not the worst B10 team I've ever seen.
He was fired in July 2023. The "year he was axed" the team (minus 4 transfers) won 8 games..
Feel like if you're fired within weeks of camp the coach probably had some influence. But I struggle to care too much about this point...because of the sexual assault...that will inevitably be ignored by campus leadership somewhere because he won a lot of games at frickin Northwestern
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Cignetti’s success at perennial doormat Indiana makes every under-performing blue blood and wanna-be Playoff program think that they are just one coaching hire and an Brinks truck of NIL away from the same thing.
But there aren’t a dozen unicorns out there.
But there aren’t a dozen unicorns out there.
The crucial part you're missing is that they won 8 games with a completely different coach on the sideline.
The last season in which he was on the sideline Fitz went 1-11. The season before that 3-9. Then under the most chaotic coaching change imaginable someone with no head coaching experience, whose previous job had been as DC to an FCS team, took that team and got 2x as many wins in one season as Fitz had gotten in the last two combined. That's not a glowing endorsement of Fitz's ability at the helm.
The ultimate glass is completely empty approach is giving 0 credit to the guy that set up 99% of the program (scouting, S&C, admin), hired the staff and recruited the roster that won 8 games.
Fitz wasnt know for being top 10 every year. It was for hazing and achieving 9 to 10 wins with 1/10th of what UM/PSU/etc had. Shoot, 2020s 7 win season was NWs highest AP finish in 25 years and 2nd highest in 70 years.
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How about this. Fitz had created a culture that meant that good talent could only win 4 games over two years. When he left, and his terrible culture, the similar talent started to win.
Everyone predicted NW to be an easy out that year. No one thought that team was talented. But it turns out they were. They just had a POS for coach.
In coaching you typically get credit for wins that you're actually the coach for.
The last 11 games Fitz coached - he lost every single one of them. It was Northwestern's worst season since 1989.
I think the decade of decent football before it, 1 of those 4 seasons being (according to the final AP poll) his best season as NW coach and the season with his staff & players (after he was fired 3 weeks before the start) resulting in 8 wins is why his rep stands.
Argue all you want, but that's the answer.
If an AD wants to hire Fitz because he did well in a wonky Covid shortened year and ignore the 3 full seasons surrounding that year where he went a combined 7-29, then more power to him I guess.
Or. Their leading rusher, passer, and receiver were all injured, transfers or redshirts heading into 22.
Their D sucked both in 21 & 22. So it sure seems like Braun inherited improved talent..
Feel like you're ignoring a few years there...
I also think there's A LOT of openings which will lead to A LOT of dominos, and a very small number of sure fire coaches. If I'm delusional in Madison or desperate in the twin cities (assuming row your boat boy heads for greener pastures) I think he gets a long look and has a better rep than some here are willing to acknowledge.
I'm also sick of litigating Fitzy and NW, I wouldn't hire him, so hate as you will.
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Sorry, 23*
I’ve seen two interesting names tied to the Oregon State opening. Not holding my breath on either one though. One has been mentioned here — Paul Chryst. He was OC in Corvallis for a year. No idea if he has any interest. The second name “reportedly” is interested — Ed Orgeron.
BZuppke
- Plainfield
Alvarez made a strong statement that he needs more time but I believe your point is a strong reason to sit this carousel out.
The skeptic in me wonders if Barry truly feels that way. OR could he just be aware of the fact that a buyout isn't coming.
It kinda makes sense but also begs the question of whether the pool of candidates is really going to be much better next cycle. Anyone who Wisconsin would have missed out on because they went elsewhere is still not going to take the Wisconsin job next year. And then some guys who may have considered Wisconsin will also take new jobs this offseason and not be available next offseason.
It's not a great choice but I think the right move is to just yank off the bandaid. Indiana was certainly not high on the pecking order and struck gold. That's not likely to happen but certainly it's more likely than Fickell turning this around.
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