Okay, let's do this real quick, can someone tell me right now if [enter team name here] wins out (including any conference championships), they're in for sure. This would mean no help from other teams. For example, we know that if Ohio State wins out, they're in no matter who else wins or loses. We can go from there after I see this list.
My list would be this:
AAC
There's no team from this conference getting in regardless of what they do without major, major help.
ACC
Clemson
Big 12
Gosh... I want to say Baylor and Oklahoma, but I'm not sure either gets in without help. Baylor would be undefeated with a win over Oklahoma, but who else? Oklahoma would have a couple nice wins over Baylor and Texas, but I don't think they're a sexy 1-loss team. They'd need a handful of other teams to either lose their first game or their second.
Big 10
Ohio State
Minnesota
Penn State
C-USA
The entire NCAA organization would have to collapse.
FBS Independents
No one without help
MAC
See C-USA
MWC
Nope. Too bad though. Some day I'd like to see Boise State get their chance, but until they play tougher opponents and quit blowing games against weaker ones...
Pac-12
Similar to the Big 12, I want to say Oregon and Utah. They both benefit from being ranked high right now, but both have rather uninspiring resumes... Oregon's one loss comes from one of the only two top 25 teams its faced, and Utah's loss came at the hands of USC. I think they both need to run the table and meet in the Pac-12 championship in order for on of them to be in. Even then, I'm not sure they get the "sexy 1-loss" moniker either. I think they both need help.
SEC
LSU
Georgia even with one loss, an SEC Champion Georgia goes regardless of anything and everything else that shakes out over the rest of the season.
I want to put Alabama here, too, but honestly, even if Alabama wins out, they NEED either LSU or Georgia to lose before the championship game. If neither do, then they NEED LSU to win the SEC Championship. The Playoff committee has always had a hardon for 1-loss SEC teams (even if they don't play in the SEC Championship), but it'd be hard to reconcile a 1-loss Alabama team over a 1-loss LSU team or 1-loss SEC Champion Georgia. Thus, byt definition, Alabama needs help to get in. But they are certainly not out.
Sun Belt Conference
Hahahahahaha
Long story short, I would say there are at best 10 teams right now with a "it's in our own hands" possibility of getting to the Playoffs. Would you all agree, or am I off base here?