Oh, it’s quite simple. That long argument you made? Apply it to every single team not named Minnesota or Georgia that is ranked from 5-10 today. And then tell me with a straight face that Georgia (1 loss to unranked and no bowl South Carolina) and Minnesota (Undefeated and still ranked behind Alabama) will win out.
There’s your answer.
An answer that doesn't pass muster.
If you start with week 11, which presumably represents the committee's opinion of the body of work thus far, there are a number of teams that will have better wins than Alabama can possibly have. That's the biggest flaw with your argument --not accounting for the fact that the teams that are lurking behind Alabama and its sterling reputation, will have big games before the season is out, but bama will not. You *might* have a case for Alabama today, but you won't by the end of the season, barring some much-needed help. The final nail in the coffin is that the committee has (supposedly) emphasized conference championships, which bama won't have a shot at.
You also have to consider how badly bama lost to LSU:
* without the late score when LSU is thinking clock, the box score wouldn't have been close
* bama was flat out dominated in the first half and looked terrible
* Bama was AT HOME. To get slapped down on the road would be more forgivable, but they couldn't keep it close until they had a slight ray of sunshine when they got the first of a needed a TD, an onsides kick, and another TD.
Btw, Georgia is good enough to beat LSU. Statistical models have them as roughly 4 point dawgs (see what I did there?) even after this last game. That's not much. There's also the psychological problem for LSU to stay hungry after such a big success, while Georgia will be playing for it's CFP life.
Statistically, last year you had Clemson with Alabama lurking, which wound up being the Championship game. This year, it's tOSU and no one else. But Clemson's so far ahead of the ACC, that it's very likely they're in, and I don't see how tOSU is behind bama even with a loss. So now there's just not a lot of scenarios where Bama isn't leapfrogged by teams that play harder schedules down the stretch. They still have a shot with some help, but they'll need help.