College Football Playoff
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Lower per-game TV rights than the initial CFP deal signed in 2012, and ESPN will be trying to recoup some of that money hawking the rights to non-ESPN parties
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
The contract was signed in 2012 to begin in 2014, it was the initial CFP contract, so three games.
It's true that the "new" 8 games of the package are the earlier round games so in some sense less valuable, but for the per-game take to go down in any context is a radical departure from where this industry was a decade ago.
Sports ability to hold up cable TV is finally collapsing. College football wasn't interested in moving their new showpiece to streaming-only to get closer to the money they were hoping for, the next big contract to come is the NBA, I suspect they will be much more willing to leave cable behind in search of dollars, but will any of the streamers be offering them any revenue growth?
Mr. Tibbs
- southeast DuPage
no doubt that the execs of these cable networks that were spending money like drunken sailors have been shown the door .
things are changing and tv rights and media deals will stagnate or decrease .
it wasn’t sustainable
nor is just about everything with regards to media in general and
college in general
lotsa changes coming
things are changing and tv rights and media deals will stagnate or decrease .
it wasn’t sustainable
nor is just about everything with regards to media in general and
college in general
lotsa changes coming
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
And I will play my role here.
College sports COULD HAVE chosen not to permanently disfigure itself in order to chase a short term sugar high that has crystal clearly been a bubble this entire time. They didn't. Now we have an absurd structure no one wants. For shame, and the sport will reap the whirlwind for it.
It's challenging to find apples to apples comparisons, but a few things to add:
To clarify, the original CFP-specific TV deal signed in 2012 was for 12 years, $5.64 billion, and for *FOUR* games each year (the two semi final games, plus the championship game, plus one other bowl game to be in the rotation of the semis). When this contract was coupled with the already existing at the time contracts for the Rose, Sugar and Orange, the average annual cost for the rights of *SEVEN* games was $685 million, or $97 million/game.
In today's announcement, the new six year deal starts with the 2026 season, and pays out an average of $1.3 billion/year, or $118 million for each of the 11 playoff games.
Correct. The amount of potential revenue media companies can extract from college sports fans is finite. Media companies behave as though more promotion will yield more revenue, but there’s a limit somewhere, and they‘re determined to find it. Most fans will only pay so much before shifting their focus and spending to other interests.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Well said, and this is the correct end of the telescope to be looking through. How much money can you extract from consumers? Can that amount continue to show growth quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year?
A lot of corporate share value is on the line for the notion that the screens on our phones and computers and TV's can burrow deeper into each of our wallets. It's not going well.
As a non-profit enterprise that isn't accountable to shareholders for endless revenue growth, college sports should have been very well positioned to avoid some of the pitfalls and mistakes in this industry. That they didn't, and in fact are probably one of the worst offenders to me is a big lesson in the way that the overarching culture of business and leadership in this country (which produces University presidents and athletic directors as surely as corporate CEO's) has just totally lost the plot. But that's opening up a whole different can of worms.
There's a huge disconnect between the people at the top who pull the strings and all of us regular people down here. And I don't know what it's going to take for that to change. Crash and burn? That happened in the viewable past and yet here we are again. Elect a wholly unqualified, professional troll in protest? Still nothing.
I'm curious what college football will look like once everything shakes out, in 5, 10 years? Will they try to expand markets in the UK and Europe with more games there? and would the schools go along with it? Is there a point where uni presidents say enough, or are they all in now?
At the core of it you have all these kids who want to play for the love of the sport whether they get paid or not. But now there's no more BMOC, they're all siloed off in their own housing taking online courses, spotted on occasion at Kam's or Chipotle. They might as well live in Rantoul.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
It will look like movie theaters and the movie business do now.
Still in business, still breaking box-office records if you look at the numbers from certain angles, still very much a part of everyday life. The hardcore fans still being served. Great entertainment still being provided if you know where to look.
But at the same time something whose golden age has very clearly passed, the problems obviously caused by greed and lack of understanding of what the audience actually wants, and just kind of a sad and frustrating reminder of the social institution that once was.
It hit movies before it hit sports for a variety of reasons, but it's the same process.
A postseason playoff game played between perennial powerhouses at a neutral site in an antiseptic NFL palace in a major urban city is the Marvel comic book sequel of college football.
Last edited:
I'd argue the power brokers here are giving the audience exactly what they want. Top teams, playing other top teams, with a defined playoff system to crown a champion.
We are an NFL nation, and we want the Saturday version of it, and they're giving it to us. Sure, it's being wrapped in school logos and colors and tradition and pageantry, but in substance, it's AAA NFL. The fans are driving this all, if you ask me. That smart business people have continued to find ways to monetize it, to benefit the universities (and soon, hopefully players), is just logical.
If some small subset of fans want to watch Kent State vs Toledo, they'll still be able to do so. Yes, there may be teams/schools that get unjustly left out (WSU, OSU come to mind), but the tent is only so big. We want Ohio State and Georgia, Texas and Michigan, and they're going to make sure we get it.
As someone who was raised in the era of the old bowl system, do I like it? No, but I understand it.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Thus the Marvel comparison.
What people want is the Avengers! Give them more more more! Make the whole industry out of Avengers movies! Look at this spreadsheet with 20 Avengers sequels all lined up over the next decade! We're all going to be rich!
It's a failure to appreciate that the public's affection for certain things that can be separated into an individually successful unit exist with a broader context. You just stuff more and more of that same unit into the system you're altering (and in these cases destroying) the ecosystem in which that successful unit came in the first place.
I'm clueless on movies and comics, but I get your point.
And to that point, it's why Rutgers, Vandy, Indiana, Northwestern and South Carolina are in this ecosystem. Optically, OSU or Alabama at 10-2 is better than say 7-5.
There will still be a certain, familiar pace to the college football season, there will still be a sub set of non conference games, there will still be upsets. Unlike the NFL, where everything is built around parity, the collective of top college football can schedule more freely, building to crescendos as the season progresses. We as a nation literally eat it up.
The top is going where ever the top wants to go. ADs, commissioners and TV execs will control this. Nothing's going to stop it. What I'm interested in, is who is going to be the first to tap out and say "we're done, we're not doing this anymore". Vandy? ND? Northwestern? Somebody will, and it'll be interesting to follow.
Mr. Tibbs
- southeast DuPage
its rare , but it happens
U of Chicago in 1940
Villanova in late 1970's
just two that I can think of quickly.
I sometimes imagine a scenario ten or fifteen years in the future where the CFB super-league that most of us believe is inevitable finally forms and Illinois is left out. We then align with other former P5 cast-offs who missed the cut to form a second-tier minor league with a manageable number of roughly 8-10 midwestern schools with roughly equivalent revenues. Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue, Michigan State, Missouri, Kansas, Colorado, for example. I could certainly live with this. In some ways, I think I’d almost prefer it, because many of our traditional rivalries would be salvaged, and that’s a league in which we might be consistently competitive. But I just don’t know what would need to happen for something like that to be viable or attractive to those universities in the strange new media world.
(1) Take that in the midwest, create 3 similar conferences in the east, south and west (roughly comprised of the old ACC, SEC, PAC); (2) set it up so that the four winners of the league each year get promoted to the "Super League" (and the bottom four "Super" teams get relegated back down), and then (3) that might create something fairly compelling? Maintains many traditional rivalries + provides something to play for at the end of the season that is way more exciting and tangible than just a victory in a minor bowl.
That's perfect. And it makes the contrarian in me wonder if a lower tier of CFB emerges (maybe like the non-colossal or independent studios), which becomes akin to spending one's sports-leisure calories on minor league baseball or hockey. I think one of the coolest sporting experiences I've ever had was sitting along the glass at a Phoenix Mustangs game (WCHL).
Granted, this discussion is largely about televi$ion, and no minor leagues are gonna impact the CFP one iota (just as the Marvel Universe is seemingly impervious to its detractors), but I do find the idea of the Illini being in a second tier somewhat attractive.
At least in FB, I think I'd rather be in a division with teams that are "on our level," like, say, Texas Tech, Indiana, Oregon State, Wake, BC, Cincinnati, ASU, BYU, Iowa State, TCU, NC State, Minnesota, Pitt, etc. etc., with new rivalries developing, new traditions, etc. That seems cooler than getting smoked by OSU, USC, Georgia, PSU all the time, for the privilege of being able to say that we're a top program (by virtue of having enough money to be in the “Big Two Association” as Orange Roughy calls it).
The big west conference in early 90s lost Long Beach state, cal st Fullerton, Pacific. A lot of great coaches went through pacific at some point, and Long Beach had George Allen as a coach and Terrell Davis, who transferred to Georgia after football was dropped. Willie brown was hc for their final season I believe. So there was some pedigree at those places. Bottom line was football was too expensive.
Last edited:
Historically Illinois has had some pretty exciting and impressive upsets over Ohio state and usc specifically. It feels good to see their smug fans so disappointed. It’s the only time I laugh at kids crying. Maybe that makes me a bad person, but I’ve come to terms with that.
There have been years of recent where the illini are looking pretty good, and going up against a big time team the lead up I think is exciting, but they’ve typically fallen flat. Still important for interest… can’t beat the best if you don’t play them.
Just got back inside from yelling at a cloud.
I don't care about who is the national champion in college. I grew up in an era where getting to and winning the Rose Bowl was the goal each year. If the old, cigar chomping, mustard-stained sports writers voted the Rose Bowl champ number one fine. But winning the Rose Bowl was the pinnacle.
The CFP/ESPN is trying to duplicate March Madness. I'll watch. I'll probably even enjoy. But I mourn the loss of The Rose Bowl being the be-all and end-all of a college football season.
Oops, sorry. I see another cloud.
I don't care about who is the national champion in college. I grew up in an era where getting to and winning the Rose Bowl was the goal each year. If the old, cigar chomping, mustard-stained sports writers voted the Rose Bowl champ number one fine. But winning the Rose Bowl was the pinnacle.
The CFP/ESPN is trying to duplicate March Madness. I'll watch. I'll probably even enjoy. But I mourn the loss of The Rose Bowl being the be-all and end-all of a college football season.
Oops, sorry. I see another cloud.
Just some additional details to add to what Dan posted:
-In most years, the top 4 conference champions will likely be the ACC, Big 10, Big XII, and SEC Champions though there will be a season where a Group of 5 (though that name won't be used by the CFP going forward) team finishes ahead of a Power 5 school. For example, in 2021, Cincinnati would have gotten a first round bye over Pitt as Cincinnati was ahead of them in the final rankings.
-Notre Dame will only ever be able to make the CFP as an at-large and can be no higher than a 5 seed in the playoff.
-Something else that will be a result of this model will be that the team that finishes #12 in the final CFP rankings will not make the playoff. For example, this past season that meant that Oklahoma would have not made the playoff and Liberty would have been in. The season before that, Washington would have not made the playoff and Tulane would have been in.
-In most years, the top 4 conference champions will likely be the ACC, Big 10, Big XII, and SEC Champions though there will be a season where a Group of 5 (though that name won't be used by the CFP going forward) team finishes ahead of a Power 5 school. For example, in 2021, Cincinnati would have gotten a first round bye over Pitt as Cincinnati was ahead of them in the final rankings.
-Notre Dame will only ever be able to make the CFP as an at-large and can be no higher than a 5 seed in the playoff.
-Something else that will be a result of this model will be that the team that finishes #12 in the final CFP rankings will not make the playoff. For example, this past season that meant that Oklahoma would have not made the playoff and Liberty would have been in. The season before that, Washington would have not made the playoff and Tulane would have been in.