College hoops advanced stats

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#2      
urbanite
If I understand the G-SCORE stat correctly, we've played at the level of a Top 25 team (i.e. Pythagorean above 89) in three of the four past games (NC State, VCU, and Central Michigan). Let's hope we continue to play at that level.
 
#3      
ballislife17
I can't help but feel like we are better than a 17-14 team. I put a lot of effort into being as objective as possible, but I still feel like I am drunk off of the Orange Kool Aid when I see these projections, am I a homer for thinking 19-12 is likely?
 
#4      
ChiefIllini
ballislife17 said:
I can't help but feel like we are better than a 17-14 team. I put a lot of effort into being as objective as possible, but I still feel like I am drunk off of the Orange Kool Aid when I see these projections, am I a homer for thinking 19-12 is likely?
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No youre not a homer. TBH theres not many P5 teams out there at couldn't win two more games than this site projects. We are a team that, although on paper might look like a rollercoaster type season, a pretty steady increase in effectiveness (sans IUPUI). Sure the three game streach of losses looks bad, but Id say the order to judge our team on is: FSU, WV, then Winthrop. FSU is a borderline top 25 team. We actually played them close, but we never could've won. Thats disappointing and says a lot about this team. WV is a potential one seed. Getting demolished by them isn't the worst thing, but we really looked like we didnt prep at all. Lastly Winthrop was fluke, but one a tournament team shouldn't commit more than once--which we haven't. We had probably 6 possessions both on off and def that went their way. Hard to lose like that and not see that luck wasn't on our side.

Our floor could be 16 wins. Our ceiling? maybe 23 after the BTT. Sadly, like water, we have a way of leveling ourselves out. Any good/great wins will be equalled by crap losses. 19 regular season wins is still, at this point, an optimistic view. Its hard to judge record by non con games--look at NW most years they play the cuppiest of cupcakes and even though they may end the season with 18 wins, only 6 of those come from BT play. If we someone can get 2 wins in the first 5 BT games, this team will be favored to make the tourney. Its still an uphill battle.
 
#5      
UrbanaIsTheShiz
Thanks for this link! Looking at the predictions we are in for quite a time. I think they have 10 games where the prediction is a margin of 2 points or less.
 
#6      
UrbanaIsTheShiz
I cant believe I am saying this because I honestly dont think too much of this team yet, with such goofy defense, but I feel like they actually have a legit shot to make the dance. I think a ton depends on our games against the middle of the Big Ten - MSU who i think is legitimately down, Minnesota, OSU, NU, Maryland (who stinks), Nebraska and Penn State. if we win the majority of games against these teams, we will probably wind up in the 4th-5th-6th spot in the league and get a bid. I think we have 6 home games against these teams and 4 on the road, with road wins conceivable in all 4 cases. I think it would be absolutely huge if they can come into Maryland and steal one while the students are out of town. One game at a time.
 
#7      
UofIChE06
ballislife17 said:
I can't help but feel like we are better than a 17-14 team. I put a lot of effort into being as objective as possible, but I still feel like I am drunk off of the Orange Kool Aid when I see these projections, am I a homer for thinking 19-12 is likely?
Click to expand...

I wouldn't put too much stock into the 17-14. The team is already +1 on the predictions. -1 from Winthrop and +1 for each of NcSt and VCU. Today is basically a toss up at -0.5 spread as well
 
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