College Sports / Conference Realignment
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
The question is who's bidding.
If the streamers have matured as sports broadcasting entities by then, Big Two college football is relatively well positioned as a survivor of the media transition. It's a horrendously degraded product relative to what it was, but the American public is so addicted to football it might not matter. Nothing draws a mass audience anymore, Big Ten football is declining much more slowly than other things Netflix or Amazon might spend their riches on. You don't have to outrun the bear, you just have to outrun the other people fleeing the bear.
But Fox, CBS and NBC are attached to rapidly declining conglomerates. They and ESPN aren't going to be able to sustain these kinds of rights deals.
The fate of the SALT deduction would be a pretty big deal in all of this, right?
the national
- the Front Range
I think the college athletes would care more about pepper than the SALT deduction.
This would be amazing for the second tier big ten teams like Illinois.
Big Ten gets 4 bids, and Illinois can probably get to 3rd or 4th in special seasons. But I bet we could get to the level where we're consistently finishing 5th or 6th, which gives you a fighting chance to win that "play in" game and steal the 4th Big Ten slot for the CFP.
Illini92and96
- Austin, TX
About would hinge on the non conference. Finish 6th and win in the playin might only work if you have a clean non conference. 4 losses might do you in, regardless of winning the play in.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
The play in is literally a play in. Win the game, you are in.
"Ah, but Gritty, does that not then make nonconference play entirely meaningless?"
"These vandals aren't thinking any of this through, young padawan"
Illini92and96
- Austin, TX
I didn’t understand it as such. That is an asine idea then. An 8-4 (6-3 conf, 2-1 non conf) 6 seed beats a 11-1 (8-1 conf, 3-0 non conf) 3 seed, wins, and gets in over the 3 seed? Stupid. Or the 3 seed gets in even with the loss to the 6th seed, meaning the 3 seed is in regardless the outcome of the playin?
Just make the entire season a massive round robin tournament with multiple elimination rounds. Every week can be playoff week!
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Just to emphasize it for clarity, yes, that is what is being proposed.
(One big thing lurking in the background BTW is the absolute mess of tiebreakers for these spots in 18-20 team leagues playing 8-9 game schedules.)
Why is all this happening?
Because the two additional "play-in" games are theorized as "premium" events for TV purposes, adding more inventory for the networks to pay for, with the theory further being that keeping more teams within potential striking distance of the "pre-playoff" for more of the season gooses interest in those teams games.
But non-conference becomes a glorified pre-season (TV poison), and late season battles between elite teams have only hypothetical access to a potential bye at stake, nothing more.
All of it on net moves the competitively relevant action of the college football season away from the school calendar and away from campuses. Escalate season ticket prices everywhere while bleeding as much of the stakes and drama of the season out of the games on offer in those packages as you can.
Pave paradise, put up a parking lot.
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Illini92and96
- Austin, TX
Nothing about sports in this country makes sense any more. From beginning youth level on up.
Joel Goodson
- how was I to know, she was with the Russians too?
estimated $100M per additional game (so, $200M for math majors). the rationale here is revenue, plain and simple
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Because no harm to the competitive structure can ever negatively impact fan interest, ever, all new money is purely additive and never cannibalizes from existing revenue. That is to be assumed in all calculations.
In 2007 the finest quantitative minds with the best tools at the most esteemed financial institutions assumed house prices could never go down either.
Battle89
- Cary-Grove, the better Trojan team
My very thought when I first read your table
Joel Goodson
- how was I to know, she was with the Russians too?
yep, packaging sub-prime mortgages into "safe" securities and leveraging the hell out of them is strikingly similar to highest level college football financials.
Joel Goodson
- how was I to know, she was with the Russians too?
gloom and doom special:
The NFL seems to do fine when the 14-3 Minnesota Vikings lose their first round playoff game @ the 10-7 LA Rams. And for Illinois, anything that involves potential 8-4 teams getting to the playoff seems better than wishing for an Illinois 11-1 season.
This is all really quite simple. As a nation, we literally consume as much top level football as humanly possible. The B1G and SEC know this, which is why this is all happening. It's not stopping any time soon.
The sad part is, however, that on balance, September college football is going to become a wasteland and non-conference games. See Nebraska cancelling on Tennessee as a great example. Miami and Northern Iowa, come on down. Yes, there are a lot of really good non-conference match ups set for the next 3-5 years, but those games were scheduled 3-5 year ago, if not more. Once those cycle thru, they won't be replaced. Instead, teams will want to make the "top 6" of their conference, so they can make it to Championship Saturday, for the right to play in to the playoff.
The sad part is, however, that on balance, September college football is going to become a wasteland and non-conference games. See Nebraska cancelling on Tennessee as a great example. Miami and Northern Iowa, come on down. Yes, there are a lot of really good non-conference match ups set for the next 3-5 years, but those games were scheduled 3-5 year ago, if not more. Once those cycle thru, they won't be replaced. Instead, teams will want to make the "top 6" of their conference, so they can make it to Championship Saturday, for the right to play in to the playoff.
Joel Goodson
- how was I to know, she was with the Russians too?
a 10 game conference schedule is inevitable (the only question is how soon), which will cut 1 non-conference game. that said, yes, the non-con portion of the season is trending towards a pre-season, tune-up city. bring on the cupcakes! for some schools, they're already there
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
College basketball has done an excellent job at orienting their postseason selection rules to encourage high-profile teams to play exciting nonconference games that add value and interest to the schedule.
This would be the exact opposite.
(I do agree that 10 game conference schedules for the B1G/SEC is probably in the near future)
When this guy says "college football", what does that mean? FBS? Power 5/4?
I don't see a 10 game conference schedule a certainty. I see 9 becoming the standard, which functionally means the SEC will have to step up.
But, I do see the idea of a B1G/SEC cross scheduling agreement coming to life. It won't be a 10th conference game, but it will be nice additional inventory for the broadcast partners. And don't hold your breath on getting Ohio State/Alabama, in late September out of that. I think it'll more likely be OSU/Vandy, or Alabama/Maryland.
But, I do see the idea of a B1G/SEC cross scheduling agreement coming to life. It won't be a 10th conference game, but it will be nice additional inventory for the broadcast partners. And don't hold your breath on getting Ohio State/Alabama, in late September out of that. I think it'll more likely be OSU/Vandy, or Alabama/Maryland.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
The trouble is, there's no juice in those games if they don't count for anything, which they don't under this new proposed system.
These expanded conference championship weekend games as CFP play-ins just aren't a good idea even within the imperial logic of Big Two NFL-ization. It subtracts more than it adds.
Right, there's no big time juice in them, by design. The juice will be saved for marque conference match ups in Oct/Nov, with Championship Saturday being the cherry on top, in early December.
But, there will be some squeeze, because you can get like Iowa/Ole Miss or Illinois/A&M or Minnesota/Auburn type match-ups, spread out amongst the first 5 or so weeks of the season. Those'll attract eyeballs at the bars on Saturday nights in late September, and fan bases will travel. Just typing that out, it's essentially taking what are now common B1G/SEC bowl slots, and tucking them into the broadcast contracts for the conferences.
the national
- the Front Range
Is this click bait?
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