Cubs 2022 Season

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#101      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
bdutts said:
I think the difference was the Cubs were on the cusp of contending AND Maddon became available. Not sure Renteria would have been canned if Maddon hasn't become available, but I don't recall who else was available at the time. Right now, the Cubs are not on the cusp of anything, other than getting a top 3 draft pick.
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The Cubs would have happily kept going with Renteria had Maddon never become available.

I just mentioned Ross’ job security because when a team underperforms expectations, it often falls on the manager. And 10-18 is underperforming expectations, even when expectations were pretty modest.

If I was able to corner Hoyer, the main things I’d want to know is why he couldn’t get a better bridge to Davis and Crow-Armstrong in CF and why there doesn’t seem to be any plan at DH at all before Caissie makes it up circa 2025. This team would be so much better with, say, Canha and Schwarber added to it, and they’d still only be about 10th in MLB in payroll.
 
#102      

KBLEE

KBLEE
Montgomery, IL
KBLEE
champaignchris said:
I just mentioned Ross’ job security because when a team underperforms expectations, it often falls on the manager. And 10-18 is underperforming expectations, even when expectations were pretty modest.
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Not by much. Many were expecting this to be a 100 loss (62 win) team this year. They are currently on pace for 58 wins.
 
#103      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
KBLEE said:
Not by much. Many were expecting this to be a 100 loss (62 win) team this year. They are currently on pace for 58 wins.
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Other than pessimistic fans, I didn’t see too many 100-loss predictions. Most models had them as a 75-ish win team and in third place. Even with the awful start, Fangraphs is still projecting the Cubs as a 71-91 team.

I know we’re splitting hairs and talking about degrees of bad here, but the Cubs were an “if everything goes right they might eke into the playoffs” team, but instead almost everything has gone wrong.

1. Hendricks and Stroman have been bad.
2. The rest of the starting pitching staff has been injured.
3. Schwindel didn’t just come back to earth, he completely cratered. I’ve seen some speculation that his back is still bothering him from the injury in ST.
4. Madrigal has completely collapsed and the guy they brought in specifically as insurance against that has been hurt all year, forcing Villar to put on that horror show in the middle infield.
5. The outfielder they brought in specifically to hit left handed pitching got appendicitis.
6. None of the 4 guys that were options to play CF are hitting at either MLB or AAA levels. If Davis were OPSing .800 at AAA like he did last year, he’d be with the team already. Instead he’s struggling to get to .600.

The starting pitching should get better as people get healthy, Stroman and Hendricks figure things out, and Killian comes up. But I don’t see much hope for the offense.
 
#111      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
If you want a little Cubs hope…

They have 127 games left in the season. 43 of those games are against the Reds, Pirates, Nationals, Orioles and Red Sox.

Maybe the Red Sox aren’t as bad as their record indicates. I’d suggest the remainder of those teams are exactly as bad as their records indicate.
 
#113      

bdutts

bdutts
Houston, Texas
bdutts
Warren Carter Fanclub said:
I'm not saying that the Cubs are good but their run differential is +5.
On the other hand, the World Series lock White Sox are -26.
Just sayin'.
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If you take out that 21-0 game, the run differential is where it should be for how good their team really is.
 
#114      

Emerson Bigguns

Emerson Bigguns
Emerson Bigguns
There was a lot of gloom and doom in here a week ago. We look a lot better now that the schedule has softened a bit. Miley pitching well is a big boost for this team. Hopefully Mills will be back soon. Simmons may not help the offense much (he has had decent years at the plate in the recent past), but is a massive upgrade from what we've seen defensively.

Hughes' debut was awesome. (It was the Pirates, so...) Morel had a great moment. Not sure what his profile is long term, but kind of sounds like a younger Pat Wisdom. (Lots of power, lots of swing and miss) I guess we will see. He looks like a young Aramis Ramirez, so that's fun.

It's not a good team, but they don't suck... at least not as bad as the Pirates or... whatever the Reds are doing.
 
#115      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
bdutts said:
If you take out that 21-0 game, the run differential is where it should be for how good their team really is.
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The Cubs have had a lot of extreme results this year. In addition to the 21-0 game, they beat the Brewers 9-0 and have had these last two games against the Pirates for a combined 16-0. That's a +46 run differential in four games. On the other hand, they have the back-to-back games against the Brewers where they lost 20-2 and the three game series against the Dodgers where they were outscored 20-3. So, 5 games with a -35 run differential.

They also had an absolutely savage stretch of 11 games where the starting pitchers they faced - including Fried, Wright, Burnes, Kopech, Kershaw and Buehler - have combined for a 2.81 ERA on the season. They only scored 19 runs in those 11 games with a 2-9 record. They're 13-11 outside that 11 game stretch. The disparity in performance between facing the elite pitchers and everyone else isn't the oddity. The oddity was how they were all bunched together. 11 straight games where they didn't see a marginal 5th starter, an emergency starter due to injury, or a bullpen game.

I like how the pitching staff is coming together. I think they have a good chance of being above average. I think the offense is going to remain frustrating but sporadically entertaining.

The Cubs are 4.5 games behind the Cardinals for the last wild card spot. If you look at their respective schedules for the 60-ish games remaining until the trade deadline, there's a pretty good chance the Cubs will gain some ground on them. What do the Cubs do if we get to August 1 and they're 3 games out of the playoffs?
 
#116      

Emerson Bigguns

Emerson Bigguns
Emerson Bigguns
champaignchris said:
What do the Cubs do if we get to August 1 and they're 3 games out of the playoffs?
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I have a hard time believing the front office's strategy would change significantly regardless of the 1st half results. While the front office may not believe the farm is as mediocre as national pundits, it is still not for lack of a better term... "elite". It isn't an old team, but it isn't young either. We have several position players who are just getting their feet wet in the majors, but are closer to 30 than to 20. The best path forward for the franchise will be to let these guys prove they belong, and then flip them for prospects. They will certainly do that with some of these older pitchers. Miley and Robertson are obvious potential trade pieces. With their ages and contracts, it would be counter productive to hang on to them. Hopefully, they continue to pitch well and can yield us a piece or two for our next contender.
What they do with Willson is anyone's guess. I'd prefer they extend him, but if they are bowled over by an offer, I wouldn't blame them.

I don't see the sense in chasing a Wild Card berth, when we aren't near good enough to win a post season tournament in the next couple of years.
 
#117      

bdutts

bdutts
Houston, Texas
bdutts
champaignchris said:
The Cubs have had a lot of extreme results this year. In addition to the 21-0 game, they beat the Brewers 9-0 and have had these last two games against the Pirates for a combined 16-0. That's a +46 run differential in four games. On the other hand, they have the back-to-back games against the Brewers where they lost 20-2 and the three game series against the Dodgers where they were outscored 20-3. So, 5 games with a -35 run differential.
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Forgot about those games...
 
#120      

Illiniaaron

I
Geneseo, IL
Illiniaaron
IlliniFaninHoosierLand said:
Cubs entering a pretty soft spot in their schedule starting next weekend. Starting next Friday, they're at Arizona, host the Pirates and Arizona, and then travel to Cincinnati. Will be interesting to see where they stand after that stretch.
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Unfortunately still bad.
 
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