Ran out of time to edit. At times we've had multiple players hit right at 30% in a single season:
2021-22: Cockburn 32%, Curbelo 31%
2020-21: Ayo 30%, Kofi 29%
David Mirkovic suffers left foot injury
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Ran out of time to edit. At times we've had multiple players hit right at 30% in a single season:
2021-22: Cockburn 32%, Curbelo 31%
2020-21: Ayo 30%, Kofi 29%
Here’s a fun stat for you, to add another layer to this. The last time a team had a KenPom “Go-to-guy” and won a championship was UConn with Shabazz Napier in 2014. Since then, there hasn't been a Championship team with a guy with usage >28%. Below is how the categories are set up in KenPom:
- Go-to-guy: >28% of possessions used (2022 Kofi, Edey, Dybantsa, etc.)
- Major Contributors: >24-28% of possessions used (Keaton this year was at 25.5%. Michigan’s highest usage player this year was Mara at 23.7%)
- Significant Contributors: 20-24% of possessions used (this year: Mirk, Bam, Stoj)
- Role Players: 16-20% of possessions used (this year: Tomi at 19.7% and Z at 16.0%)
- Limited roles: 12-16% of possessions used (2025 Humrichous and Jake Davis)
- Nearly Invisible: <12% of possessions used (2026 Humrichous and Jake Davis)
So this begs the question: Do we want any of our players to be high-usage, NPOY-stat guys, or do we want a team full of significant contributors and role players?
I think we definitely want the latter.
The real argument against a 30% USG rate being achievable for Mirkovic is what you say (we have Andrej & Stefan) and much less so that he couldn't increase his FGA, FTA, TOV.
30% is indeed a big step up from 23%, but given the talk about Mirkovic this summer and the fact that we've had players achieve that # 5-6x over the last 5 years or so, it seems... not unreasonable that he could add a couple shot attempts, increase the FT rate, and maybe another 1/2 turnover due to facilitating more.
Also, as an aside since I've mentioned FT rate: its a huge area where Mirkovic can improve. About 42% of his shots were 3 pointers last year. I want to see more possessions this season where he gets the ball as deep as possible, use his size to score or his ability to pass out of the digs and traps when those come.
Kofi and TSJ had FT rates that nearly doubled Mirkovic's .305 rate last season:
Kofi .589
TSJ . 599
Ayo was at .333 his senior year, which is wild... I remember him getting to the line more often than that for some reason.
Yeah I looked at the wrong year for Tshiebwe, and went off sports reference, not torvik (SR has his usage for NOPY season at 24.1%). In any event, the point still stands. Half these guys didn't hit 30%.
Do we know what happened to his foot? Obvi speculative, but is there a component of his running mechanics that is at play in the injury? He has such a unique prancing type of jog up the court, wondering whether this is putting more strain/impact on his feet than other high level athletes. Wishing him all the best and can't wait to see him back this year.
I have no doubt he will work hard to get back where he needs to be... However, Even if starts playing again in November again based on an optimistic timetable, I am concerned that it will take a lot longer to get back to the same level he was playing at prior to injury.
As an example, look at Boswell pre and post injury stats. While his points and rebounds stayed similar, Boswell efficiency really fell off (see below). While I am not claiming that Mirk will have the same trajectory as Boswell coming back from injury (....I know they're different injuries), it would not surprise me, if Mirk may not be 100% for several months after he's reinserted in the Illini rotation again
Kylan Boswell
| Period | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before injury | 12.3 PPG | 4.0 RPG | 3.0 APG | Strong scoring; consistent usage |
| After return (Feb 15–Mar 8) | ~10.5 PPG | ~4.0 RPG | ~3.5 APG | Solid but slightly reduced scoring |
| Postseason | 7.8 PPG | 3.8 RPG | 1.6 APG | Noticeable scoring drop |
| Period | FG% | 3P% | FT% | eFG% | TS% | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before injury | ~48% | ~33–34% | ~78–80% | ~55% | ~59% | Efficient, strong finishing, stable 3P |
| After return | ~41% | ~26% | ~67–75% | ~47% | ~52% | Lower rhythm, reduced 3P accuracy |
Couple things I look at:
1) Mirk looks like one of the hardest workers on the team. Dude will come back with a vengeance to benefit himself and the team. Re: “I’d probably kill myself if we lost and I wasn’t playing.”
2) Mirk even at 85-90% (for a while; until fully ramped by Conference play) makes us deadly.
What he needs most is to be medically ready, as in no risk of further injury. Which by the sound of “full recovery” leads me to believe they know this will not be a lingering soft tissue type thing. It will not impact him so long as he gives himself the time to heal. But ultimately once that is set, he’s not at risk for aggravating it or anything worse, the team can use absolutely use him and only improve game over game. It seems realistic that he could be 100% decently early still in the season. Great, it’s a long season and come March and April, he’ll be a dawg again.
A broken hand is way different than a broken foot. We've seen in two consecutive seasons players get hand injuries (KJ, Kylan) and the shooting was worse after they returned (with the hand/wrist in a wrap). That's pretty obvious, I think.
A better comp might be Goode before and after his foot injury? Genuinely asking, because that still might not be the best comp because they do vastly different things on the basketball court.
The argument I'm making isn't necessarily about achievability (totally agree with you when you factor in Drej and Stef), but more so about whether we want our offense to depend that much on one guy. It seems like it's pretty difficult to go on a deep run when that much of your offense depends on one guy, and a much more sustainable model is to have a team of contributors and role players.
purcy51
- Louisville, KY
Not to derail the thread, but...i'm a huge Monty Python fan. Saw spamalot back in 2007, treat from my then girlfriend. She got pissed b/c i was laughing before the punch lines/ funniest parts b/c i knew what was coming. Probably one of my favorite musicals
This is really interesting. I tried to look at other possible reasons (stats padding in the non-conference, etc.) and the only other thing I could find that could be considered a major factor for this is the emergence of new guys (Wagler, Mirk, Stoj, etc.). I think the FG% is the most telling drop in performance pre- and post-injury.
Thankfully timing is somewhat fortunate in this case, as he isn't making a mid-season return. I think a better comp might be Stoj or Tomi last year. Stoj was able to bounce back and make a major impact early, and Tomi took longer to get into rhythm. With that said, Tomi's role/usage changed YOY, which also probably factors into his slow start.
purcy51
- Louisville, KY
You must be new here...
I don't know is its a fair comparison since Goode got injured after his freshman year but, unlike Mirk, barely played as freshman..In addition, Goode was not considered an elite player going into his sophomore season and his sophomore stats were underwhelming to say the least ...but here you go..
| Season | Games | Minutes | Points | Rebounds | FG% | 3P% | eFG% | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021–22 (Freshman) | 28 | 8.2 MPG | 2.0 PPG | 1.8 RPG | 32.7% | 37.2% | ~48% | Full season, healthy |
| 2022–23 (Post‑injury only) | 10 | 14.5 MPG | 4.0 PPG | 1.6 RPG | 48.4% | 42.1% | 61.3% | Returned Feb 11 after broken foot |
Battle89
- Cary-Grove, the better Trojan team
I think it’s reasonable to think/expect Mirk to post numbers that are worse than if he hadn’t gotten injured, but a wrist injury that required special wrapping is an unfair comparison to a foot injury.
But again, completely realistic to believe Mirk will not be the same player he would have been without injury. At least for some period of time.
Homecoming 2019
- Chicago
Going to need those rate numbers normalized to the opponent too. Usually easier opponents early in the season. And a lot of the counting stats are due to Keatons rise.
skyIdub
"I can't tell you. Secret."
Sir this is a cottage cheese driven blog.
We make cottage cheese out of curdled milk.
It's a fan board so people are all over the place. I am not a "Mirk is slow and not athletic" but I am also not a "he's a lottery pick." I do think he is the best player on the team.
Having said that I don't think we have a shot against Texas Tech (assuming JT Toppin healthy), Duke or UCONN without Mirk.
Joel Goodson
- it's all ball bearings, nowadays
dem bones need cottage cheese immersion therapy
could unlock super Mirk
could unlock super Mirk
confirmed mirk will go from npoy consideration to now NBA MVP after he returns
View attachment 51105 View attachment 51106
Brad's gonna Brad...Doesn't mean it's not true of course...
Brad is absolutely elite at hyperbole.
RichardKeenesCousin
Richard Keene's Cousin
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