December Bracketology

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#51      
NarrowJ
EmeraldCityIllini said:
Also. That post says seeds 5-16 seeds have never won a national title.

Is that even right?
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Chris Farley Idk GIF


Edit: Villanova was an 8 seed (40 years ago), maybe one of our history buffs can answer if there have been more
 
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#55      
Thaillini22
I don't want to speak for Battle89, but my guess is he's had enough of the exaggerating (in general, not necessarily from you specifically).

It caught my attention too, when you wrote that "this forum was basically scorched Earth for 9 days while we were a sitting on a 5 seed and suddenly everything is back to normal now that we're a 4."

You jumped from a boardwide opinion to one guy's. And you may have put words in his mouth as well.

You can just let things go sometimes bruv, not every post contrary to yours is an attack.
 
#56      
FloridaMan
was referring to the “discussion that we are a 10 seed or some !!!!.” My point is that a seed higher than the last 4 should be the goal. Beating Mizzou, albeit while playing well and showing progress, doesn’t magically put us in a protected seed. Hope we continue to progress and get there but I’m sure that is not rosy enough of an outlook for some
 
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#59      
lstewart53x3
mysterio2525 said:
2 seed should be our goal. 3-4 seed will be decent. anything below that will be disappointing imo and yes I know our big ten schedule. this team is that good... just need to show it
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A 2 seed will be tough this year. This is one of the strongest top 10’s that I can remember.

So far this year, there are 9 teams with an adjusted efficiency margin in KenPom of +29.00 or better (though, we are included in that at #9).

Here’s the number of teams at +29.00 or better the previous couple of years:

2021: 4
2022: 1
2023: 1
2024: 3
2025: 6
2026: 9

So most years, our current adjusted efficiency margin of +29.43 is good enough for a 1 seed. This year, it’s currently a ~3 seed.
 
#60      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
lstewart53x3 said:
A 2 seed will be tough this year. This is one of the strongest top 10’s that I can remember.

So far this year, there are 9 teams with an adjusted efficiency margin in KenPom of +29.00 or better (though, we are included in that at #9).

Here’s the number of teams at +29.00 or better the previous couple of years:

2021: 4
2022: 1
2023: 1
2024: 3
2025: 6
2026: 9

So most years, our current adjusted efficiency margin of +29.43 is good enough for a 1 seed. This year, it’s currently a ~3 seed.
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It's very early. Those numbers fluctuate throughout the course of a full season.
 
#62      
NarrowJ
WCC is especially bad this season, so watching Gonzaga roll through their conf season and get a 1/2 will be an absolute treat.
 
#63      
IlliniFaninHoosierLand
EmeraldCityIllini said:
The UConn versus UK game immediately jumped out to me. Believe UK was an 8/9 - the year they beat #1 seed (GASP!) Wichita state.
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And that was the year the NCAA absolutely overloaded Wichita State's bracket. Even if the Shockers had been able to get past Kentucky, they still would have had to go through Louisville and Michigan just to get to the Final Four. They even had a Duke team in that bracket that was upset in the first round by Mercer.
 
#64      
Second place is 1st loser
Chad Fleck said:
I still contend that the 3 seed is pretty much as good as a 2 seed.
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The 14 seeds are generally pretty good teams from a mid major conference and 15 seeds are decent teams from the low major conferences.

The 14 seeds generally have a player, maybe two that can play at the high major level(and via NIL/Portal will eventually) and have the capability to play a really good first half before depth takes over. That happened to us vs Morehead State. We went down like 9-0, it was really tight at half, then our size and depth was just too much.

The 15 seeds are another tier down which is the Montana's or Samford's of the world that might play well until the 2nd TV time out, then it's downhill from there. So, there is a difference. Obviously, there are always exceptions to that, but for the most part, a 14 can make you a uptight, while a 15 probably won't whatsoever.

As then, of course is the 2 v 7(or 10) or 3 v 6(or 11). Those games both can be brutal. Those are usually very talented teams that have had an up and down year or a dominant mid major. The 11 seeds are scary because they've played a game(play in game) and are lathered up. We got the winner of Xavier vs Texas, which wasn't all that much fun either way. I think Ole Miss got Carolina last year. Again, there's a difference and the ride can be bumpier.

Now, where the HUGE difference is between the 4 and 5 seeds. That 5/12 game is well documented.

I agree with you when the 2 vs 3, if both get that far.....it's splitting hairs.
 
#65      
Fighter of the Nightman
Chad Fleck said:
I still contend that the 3 seed is pretty much as good as a 2 seed.
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It is on paper as far as your path for a deep run, in that the difference between a #6 see and #7 seed is immaterial and you still need to get through a #1 seed. However, the idea is that if you’ve done enough to break into that #2 seed group, those experiences that separated you from the #3 seeds have you JUST an extra notch more battle tested and refined.

So it’s more like if you’ve done enough to earn that #2 over the #3, it’s probably because you are really humming down the stretch.
 
#66      
NarrowJ
Fighter of the Nightman said:
It is on paper as far as your path for a deep run, in that the difference between a #6 see and #7 seed is immaterial and you still need to get through a #1 seed. However, the idea is that if you’ve done enough to break into that #2 seed group, those experiences that separated you from the #3 seeds have you JUST an extra notch more battle tested and refined.

So it’s more like if you’ve done enough to earn that #2 over the #3, it’s probably because you are really humming down the stretch.
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I mentioned Gonzaga earlier: might be the lone exception.

They may not even face another tournament team until the actual tournament, and that is wild to me (guess I could go ahead and assume St Mary's gets in though)
 
#67      
21ChampaignSt
Second place is 1st loser said:
The 14 seeds are generally pretty good teams from a mid major conference and 15 seeds are decent teams from the low major conferences.

The 14 seeds generally have a player, maybe two that can play at the high major level(and via NIL/Portal will eventually) and have the capability to play a really good first half before depth takes over. That happened to us vs Morehead State. We went down like 9-0, it was really tight at half, then our size and depth was just too much.

The 15 seeds are another tier down which is the Montana's or Samford's of the world that might play well until the 2nd TV time out, then it's downhill from there. So, there is a difference. Obviously, there are always exceptions to that, but for the most part, a 14 can make you a uptight, while a 15 probably won't whatsoever.

As then, of course is the 2 v 7(or 10) or 3 v 6(or 11). Those games both can be brutal. Those are usually very talented teams that have had an up and down year or a dominant mid major. The 11 seeds are scary because they've played a game(play in game) and are lathered up. We got the winner of Xavier vs Texas, which wasn't all that much fun either way. I think Ole Miss got Carolina last year. Again, there's a difference and the ride can be bumpier.

Now, where the HUGE difference is between the 4 and 5 seeds. That 5/12 game is well documented.

I agree with you when the 2 vs 3, if both get that far.....it's splitting hairs.
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I'd say you're both right. When it comes to making it to and winning the championship, their odds are pretty much the same.

But historically, the twos have an easier time in the first two weekends.

Once you get past the protected seeds, the difference between a seed and the seed directly beneath it does become more of a splitting hairs situation.

This is a cool site to bookmark. Notice how the results aren't random like they are in a game of, oh I don't know, craps.

BracketOdds - How Far Does Each Seed Advance?

March Madness: What are the odds? A tool for bracketologists.
bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu
 
#68      
mysterio2525
lstewart53x3 said:
A 2 seed will be tough this year. This is one of the strongest top 10’s that I can remember.

So far this year, there are 9 teams with an adjusted efficiency margin in KenPom of +29.00 or better (though, we are included in that at #9).

Here’s the number of teams at +29.00 or better the previous couple of years:

2021: 4
2022: 1
2023: 1
2024: 3
2025: 6
2026: 9

So most years, our current adjusted efficiency margin of +29.43 is good enough for a 1 seed. This year, it’s currently a ~3 seed.
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I agree the efficiency variance is rather high this year and I do think it's for a few reasons.

1. teams are so much more aware of the metrics so are making their offenses and defenses geared towards maximizing it. we did that for sure on offense

2. teams are scheduling more towards the metrics, like we have, with less quad 3 games in the pre conference games. trying to either do quad 4 or quad 1/2 is just risk management. also lot more neutral games seem to be scheduled than in the past

3. there seem to have been an inordinate amount of blowouts even amongst ranked teams early this season.

4. NIL has allowed for more super teams combined with more international players.

maybe the difference between a 2 and 3 are negligible but I will think 2 is a tough but reasonable goal. Illinois has a lot of quad 1a opportunities because the tough big ten schedule
 
#69      
mhuml32
lstewart53x3 said:
A 2 seed will be tough this year. This is one of the strongest top 10’s that I can remember.

So far this year, there are 9 teams with an adjusted efficiency margin in KenPom of +29.00 or better (though, we are included in that at #9).

Here’s the number of teams at +29.00 or better the previous couple of years:

2021: 4
2022: 1
2023: 1
2024: 3
2025: 6
2026: 9

So most years, our current adjusted efficiency margin of +29.43 is good enough for a 1 seed. This year, it’s currently a ~3 seed.
Click to expand...

I get the thought here but it's a little apples-to-oranges to compare the current KenPom scores before (most) non-conference games and final KenPom scores for each season. Do we know how these compare to end-of-calendar scores to previous years? My thought is (a) teams are spamming the system with strategic scheduling (avoiding Q2 games so teams can either pick up valuable Q1s or run up the score on Q3/Q4 teams) and the pending conference schedule is going to expose teams to real road games, which will create upsets and lower quality scores.
 
#70      
RichAdams
Second place is 1st loser said:
The 14 seeds are generally pretty good teams from a mid major conference and 15 seeds are decent teams from the low major conferences.

The 14 seeds generally have a player, maybe two that can play at the high major level(and via NIL/Portal will eventually) and have the capability to play a really good first half before depth takes over. That happened to us vs Morehead State. We went down like 9-0, it was really tight at half, then our size and depth was just too much.

The 15 seeds are another tier down which is the Montana's or Samford's of the world that might play well until the 2nd TV time out, then it's downhill from there. So, there is a difference. Obviously, there are always exceptions to that, but for the most part, a 14 can make you a uptight, while a 15 probably won't whatsoever.

As then, of course is the 2 v 7(or 10) or 3 v 6(or 11). Those games both can be brutal. Those are usually very talented teams that have had an up and down year or a dominant mid major. The 11 seeds are scary because they've played a game(play in game) and are lathered up. We got the winner of Xavier vs Texas, which wasn't all that much fun either way. I think Ole Miss got Carolina last year. Again, there's a difference and the ride can be bumpier.

Now, where the HUGE difference is between the 4 and 5 seeds. That 5/12 game is well documented.

I agree with you when the 2 vs 3, if both get that far.....it's splitting hairs.
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If you’re worried about 14 and 15 seeds, I have no recollection of Illinois ever losing to such a team. The game two days later is the “trick bag.” A seed of 6, 7, 8, or 9 seems to be about the same to me, but I have felt that short preparation has been more of an issue for Illini teams in the past.
 
#71      
Second place is 1st loser
RichAdams said:
If you’re worried about 14 and 15 seeds, I have no recollection of Illinois ever losing to such a team. The game two days later is the “trick bag.” A seed of 6, 7, 8, or 9 seems to be about the same to me, but I have felt that short preparation has been more of an issue for Illini teams in the past.
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We weren't talking about Illinois specifically, but if you want to bring up a sore subject.....as a #3 seed, we lost to Austin Peay(1987), lost to UT Chattanooga (#14 seed) in 1997, beat #13 seed UT Chattanooga by 1 point in 2022, so yes..... we've had our share of brutal games vs the lower seeds.

Those losses were under Henson and Kruger, two Hall of Fame caliber coaches.

I agree 100% that 6 and 7 are about the same, but I don't think that 10 and 11 are. That 11 seed usually comes from a play in game and those games are usually two big names having turbulent seasons and getting in the tournament is a lifeline. It's house money or you get a team with something to prove because they don't think they belong there. The winner has a game under their belt and the jitters are gone. UNC, Texas and Xavier were all 11 seeds last year. I think Colorado, who has 2 NBA players, also came out of that game and beat Florida in the 6/11 game. It's a big difference.

That's purely MO.
 
#72      
Battle89
RichAdams said:
If you’re worried about 14 and 15 seeds, I have no recollection of Illinois ever losing to such a team. The game two days later is the “trick bag.” A seed of 6, 7, 8, or 9 seems to be about the same to me, but I have felt that short preparation has been more of an issue for Illini teams in the past.
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#75      
Fighter of the Nightman
Haven't done this for a bit. Updated Illini resume using NET Rankings and the Quad classifications. A quick reminder of how games are categorized:

Home Opponents: #1-30 Quad 1, #31-75 Quad 2, #76-160 Quad 3, #161+ Quad 4
Neutral Site Opponents: #1-50 Quad 1, #51-100 Quad 2, #101-200 Quad 3, #201+ Quad 4
Away Opponents: #1-75 Quad 1, #76-135 Quad 2, #136-240 Quad 3, #241+ Quad 4

Now for the Illini:

Record: 10-3
NET Ranking: #10
Home Record: 7-1
Away Record: 1-0
Neutral Record: 2-2
Quad 1 Record: 3-3
Quad 2 Record: 1-0
Quad 3 Record: 0-0
Quad 4 Record: 6-0

And our results and upcoming games by Quad:

Quad 1 | 3-3
vs. #1 Michigan
at #6 Purdue
L 61-74 vs. #8 UConn (New York, NY)
at #11 Nebraska
L 80-83 vs. #11 Nebraska
at #12 Michigan State
at #13 Iowa
L 86-90 vs. #14 Alabama (Chicago, IL)
W 81-77 vs. #20 Texas Tech
W 75-62 vs. #26 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
at #39 UCLA
at #40 USC
W 88-80 at #43 Ohio State
at #69 Northwestern

Quad 2 | 1-0
vs. #33 Indiana
vs. #52 Washington
vs. #66 Wisconsin
vs. #69 Northwestern
W 91-48 vs. #93 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)

Quad 3 | 0-0
vs. #97 Oregon
vs. #108 Minnesota
vs. #140 Penn State (Philadelphia, PA)
at #146 Maryland
vs. #146 Maryland

Quad 4 | 6-0
W 87-73 vs. #172 UTRGV
W 84-65 vs. #183 Colgate
W 98-58 vs. #190 LIU
vs. #199 Rutgers
W 113-70 vs. #201 FGCU
W 90-55 vs. #297 Southern
W 113-55 vs. #355 Jackson State

Some Observations
- Zero excuse to drop the dreaded dud home losses that have come out of nowhere in past years. Oregon, Minnesota and Maryland are not good enough to come into the House of 'Paign and beat a focused Illini squad this year, and if we don't show up those days ... it will be an absolute resume torpedo.
- The Iowa game is so huge next weekend. If we can beat PSU and Rutgers and Iowa holds serve until next Sunday, that will be a hugely hyped game and a potential opportunity for both teams to score a signature win vs. a rival. Going into Iowa City and beating #13 Iowa MORE than makes up for a home loss to #11 Nebraska. If we win our next three, all of a sudden Illinois has a resume that garners legitimate conversations about a top 2 seed, given we would be 13-3, top #6-8 in the NET and have 5 Quad 1 wins, including two on the road ... that's one of the best resumes in the nation up to this point, period.
- The West Coast trip is also looking to be huge. Two Quad 1 games nestled between Quad 2 home games vs. Indiana/Wisconsin and a massive opportunity vs. Michigan on the other side. We need to come out West jazzed up and ready to take care of business.

My Homer Illini Spin(s)
- As far as Quad 1 wins, I would argue that winning the Michigan or Purdue games are icing on the cake at this point. We should have plenty of motivation going into Lincoln, too, but let's throw that in the "don't need" category. I don't think there are any remaining Quad 1 opponents of ours that will be tougher than Alabama or especially UConn. Sure, winning a game like at Iowa or at Michigan State will be really tough challenges, but this is the value of our tough non-conference schedule. At this point, we are used to hitting the road to playing tough opponents in gyms that are not our own, and we have come out on the winning side of two of those already. We are battle tested, and if we come to play every game ... I think our non-conference has prepared us really well for what's to come, and we could actually see this squad go on a hot streak.
- On the note of a hot streak, I think the schedule sets up really nicely for some runs. If we can go 2-0 in these next two games, the Iowa game will truly serve as an "axis" of sorts. If we can get out of Iowa City with a W, you are all of a sudden staring down an 8-game winning streak before we head to West Lafayette. Never count a win before it's in the win column, of course, but this is the Homer Illini Spin(s) section!! Mackey is a house of horrors and all, but they've proven themselves beatable there, regardless of how good Iowa State is!
 
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