Football Coaching Staff / Coaching Carousel Thread

[Hoppy2105]

The prior AD leveled the program, the interim AD actually did a smart think in keeping the interim HC. There was no way we wanted the interim AD to make that hire. I'm impressed with the increase in size and athleticism that Lovie has brought in compared to the prior HC. It is not necessary just recruiting rankings, his OL/DL are bigger. With the experience and addition of numerous key players, I think 6 wins is the baseline, hoping for 7.

I actually disagree...to an extent. There were a lot of quality coaches that Paul Kowalczyk could have hired. In particular he should have gone after Dino Babers. HUGE MISS.

Maybe if Dino still said no I’d have been okay with retaining Cubit for a few extra months and killing a recruiting class to give Whitman a chance to hire “his guy.”

But to say it was smart or right to give Cubit the 2 year deal is completely false.

 

[NScale]

With the experience and addition of numerous key players, I think 6 wins is the baseline, hoping for 7.

If we add back the two games we should have won in 2018, the one against South Florida at Soldier Field and Penn State, we coulda woulda shoulda won 6 games.

 

[ivwilsoniv]

I actually disagree...to an extent. There were a lot of quality coaches that Paul Kowalczyk could have hired. In particular he should have gone after Dino Babers. HUGE MISS.

Maybe if Dino still said no I’d have been okay with retaining Cubit for a few extra months and killing a recruiting class to give Whitman a chance to hire “his guy.”

But to say it was smart or right to give Cubit the 2 year deal is completely false.

Ummm, no one was going to come to Illinois in that situation. Thinking otherwise is completely unrealistic.

 

[Hoppy2105]

Ummm, no one was going to come to Illinois in that situation. Thinking otherwise is completely unrealistic.

Agree to disagree. It’s not unheard of for an Interim AD to hire a coach if need be. Not common, sure, but not unheard of. And I think Dino would have accepted the job.

He doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who cares who his boss is because he will win wherever he goes. And any boss can get along with a guy that wins.

But alas, we will never know.

 

[mhuml32]

Kentucky Recruiting Under Stoops - 247Sports Avg. Rating [Illinois for comparison]
2013 - 0.8486 [0.8294]
2014 - 0.8683 [0.8225]
2015 - 0.8509 [0.8345]
2016 - 0.8504 [0.8126]
2017 - 0.8604 [0.8371]
2018 - 0.8611 [0.8381]
2019 - 0.8639 [0.8641]

If you look at when Lovie was hired, hes quickly closing the gap. It speaks well to our trajectory.

Love this data and the comparison to Stoops is the ideal path for Illinois (realistic or not). Major kudos to the staff for bringing in higher quality this recruiting cycle, and hopefully complementing the group further with Cooper, Ford, and a couple more transfers (5th year QB? WR?). That said, there is a large jump between Stoops' average 247 rating and Illinois' since 2013. By AVR, Kentucky is bringing in a group of recruits that are the equivalent of 700-750th ranked recruit. For Illinois, they're bringing in the equivalent of the 1300-1400th ranked recruit. Now, you can argue that Kentucky/Stoops is finding success in a much tougher environment (SEC) with roughly the equivalent of talent disparity that Illinois is facing in the B1G West, which is fair.

Lovie NEEDS to show he's turning the corner (6-6 minimum) in order to maintain that 2018 AVR in a much bigger class, which is part of the problem, he brought in a much better class but much smaller numbers. He'll need to repeat this with 20-22 players in 2020. I'd also argue that the map will not be as friendly to Lovie and staff in 2020 as it was in 2019. The STL talent isn't as strong + Trinity connection/talent will not be as high + Illinois talent seems to be a secondary target for the staff. Also unlikely that the staff will be able to reel in new top-100 talents like this year (only option is Mookie Cooper (Texas Lean)).

Is .8600 a realistic target? No. Might be best to shoot for .8500, which would be a step up but still behind the majority of the B1G West schools. Hence the necessity of making a significant leap. Can Illinois football be 4-1 heading into the group of UM (home), Wisconsin (home), and Purdue (road) and somehow win two of those games? 6-2 with Rutgers (home), Michigan State (road), Iowa (road), and NW (home). Split those and finish 8-4, then a .8600 recruiting class score is possible (and lays the groundwork for taking that step forward).

 

[ILL_INI]

If we add back the two games we should have won in 2018, the one against South Florida at Soldier Field and Penn State, we coulda woulda shoulda won 6 games.

? Penn State won by 39.

 

[618MattD]

Love this data and the comparison to Stoops is the ideal path for Illinois (realistic or not). Major kudos to the staff for bringing in higher quality this recruiting cycle, and hopefully complementing the group further with Cooper, Ford, and a couple more transfers (5th year QB? WR?). That said, there is a large jump between Stoops' average 247 rating and Illinois' since 2013. By AVR, Kentucky is bringing in a group of recruits that are the equivalent of 700-750th ranked recruit. For Illinois, they're bringing in the equivalent of the 1300-1400th ranked recruit. Now, you can argue that Kentucky/Stoops is finding success in a much tougher environment (SEC) with roughly the equivalent of talent disparity that Illinois is facing in the B1G West, which is fair.

Lovie NEEDS to show he's turning the corner (6-6 minimum) in order to maintain that 2018 AVR in a much bigger class, which is part of the problem, he brought in a much better class but much smaller numbers. He'll need to repeat this with 20-22 players in 2020. I'd also argue that the map will not be as friendly to Lovie and staff in 2020 as it was in 2019. The STL talent isn't as strong + Trinity connection/talent will not be as high + Illinois talent seems to be a secondary target for the staff. Also unlikely that the staff will be able to reel in new top-100 talents like this year (only option is Mookie Cooper (Texas Lean)).

Is .8600 a realistic target? No. Might be best to shoot for .8500, which would be a step up but still behind the majority of the B1G West schools. Hence the necessity of making a significant leap. Can Illinois football be 4-1 heading into the group of UM (home), Wisconsin (home), and Purdue (road) and somehow win two of those games? 6-2 with Rutgers (home), Michigan State (road), Iowa (road), and NW (home). Split those and finish 8-4, then a .8600 recruiting class score is possible (and lays the groundwork for taking that step forward).

2013 was Stoops first year, not Lovies. In order to compare Stoops first years to Lovies recruiting wise you have to look at Illinois in 2017. Not as big of a difference there

 

[Orange Line to Blue Line]

I actually disagree...to an extent. There were a lot of quality coaches that Paul Kowalczyk could have hired. In particular he should have gone after Dino Babers. HUGE MISS.

Maybe if Dino still said no I’d have been okay with retaining Cubit for a few extra months and killing a recruiting class to give Whitman a chance to hire “his guy.”

But to say it was smart or right to give Cubit the 2 year deal is completely false.

I would imagine it would have been a miracle to get Coach Babers with an Interm AD and no clear vision for the program. That would have been an amazing sell by an interm coach.

 

[MadSeason]

Lovie NEEDS to show he's turning the corner (6-6 minimum) in order to maintain that 2018 AVR in a much bigger class, which is part of the problem, he brought in a much better class but much smaller numbers. He'll need to repeat this with 20-22 players in 2020. I'd also argue that the map will not be as friendly to Lovie and staff in 2020 as it was in 2019. The STL talent isn't as strong + Trinity connection/talent will not be as high + Illinois talent seems to be a secondary target for the staff. Also unlikely that the staff will be able to reel in new top-100 talents like this year (only option is Mookie Cooper (Texas Lean)).

So many things we don't know at this point but there are a couple of important recruits in East St. Louis as we look to continue the rebuild of that relationship. As you indicated Mookie is a Texas lean, but our good friend Title indicated that a big season from Jeff Thomas in the slot could show Mookie what can happen here and obviously our relationships there are as good as anyones. Will Luke Ford become eligible this season? If you get Thomas and Ford eligible this season who knows what could happen. We hire a couple of good recruiters and maybe that takes us to another level.

Course we could just win 5 games and all hope goes down the drain, because Illinois

 

[ChiefIllini]

I actually disagree...to an extent. There were a lot of quality coaches that Paul Kowalczyk could have hired. In particular he should have gone after Dino Babers. HUGE MISS.

Hindsight my friend. There will always be some good coaches on the market. Some obtainable by UI, others not so much. Dino Babers had 2 years of DIII success, and two at a MAC school. For comparison sake, most thought Beckman was a lack luster higher at the time. His conference record the two years prior to joining us were both 7-1 seasons. Babers went 5-3 and 7-1 respectively. Now you can argue Toledo is and was a better program/ easier to win at, or any other metrics, which I know I kind of cherry picked, and I will admit Babers had a better looking resume than Beckman did, but there were plenty of cautionary flags around him too.

He didn't make the best choice by retaining Cubit, but he was spot on with his assessment of his actions. He will not be the reason for 5 more years of futility, that will fall on Lovie/Whitman, if it does happen. I think he made the safe play, and for a man in his position, it was one of the right moves.

 

[mhuml32]

2013 was Stoops first year, not Lovies. In order to compare Stoops first years to Lovies recruiting wise you have to look at Illinois in 2017. Not as big of a difference there

Was providing a comparison of talent on the 2017-18 roster between the two.

 

[FT35]

So many things we don't know at this point but there are a couple of important recruits in East St. Louis as we look to continue the rebuild of that relationship. As you indicated Mookie is a Texas lean, but our good friend Title indicated that a big season from Jeff Thomas in the slot could show Mookie what can happen here and obviously our relationships there are as good as anyones. Will Luke Ford become eligible this season? If you get Thomas and Ford eligible this season who knows what could happen. We hire a couple of good recruiters and maybe that takes us to another level.

Course we could just win 5 games and all hope goes down the drain, because Illinois

I don't think this season matters that much in terms of 2020 recruiting. A lot of recruiting is done well before he season starts with the Spring Official Visits and the early signing period. Just look at how recruiting went this year. We closed on most of our targets before training camp. Guys like Fedanzo are guys that we used to offer and try to close on in January.

Of course, this is actually a major problem for us since recruits are judging us based on last year's results.

It's hard to convince kids to come here under ordinary circumstances. It's even harder to sell hope in year 4 with Lovie on the hot seat. We can't even really sell early playing time anymore which I think was a major problem with our OL recruiting this year.

This performance center is a wild card with recruiting but a lot of kids who will visit in the Spring and Summer won't see the finished product.

I would think Zeriah Beason is probably the best bet to commit here at some point. Marquez lives with him and Zeriah's parents have already bought in to the program.

After that, maybe look at some of the Trinity kids. I don't know about Mookie, but guys like Frenchie and St. John are at positions of need and haven't blown up with the blue bloods yet. I also think someone like Reggie Love may be beyond our grasp at this point. In state is always a disaster. Almost anyone with a P5 offer other than Illinois.

The results from this season really only matter in terms of Lovie not being fired. If he is then this class is a lost cause. It's going to be another small class so the staff also needs to be careful in terms of who they offer.

Another scenario is that this class never even gains any traction. Kansas had one commit when Beaty was fired and that commit was not part of the class that signed in December.

The Class of 2021 will be a full class since we will have 29 Scholarship Juniors on the roster this year so we need to have everything in order in terms of the coaching staff this time next year.

 

[Title]

I don't think this season matters that much in terms of 2020 recruiting. A lot of recruiting is done well before he season starts with the Spring Official Visits and the early signing period. Just look at how recruiting went this year. We closed on most of our targets before training camp. Guys like Fedanzo are guys that we used to offer and try to close on in January.

Of course, this is actually a major problem for us since recruits are judging us based on last year's results.

It's hard to convince kids to come here under ordinary circumstances. It's even harder to sell hope in year 4 with Lovie on the hot seat. We can't even really sell early playing time anymore which I think was a major problem with our OL recruiting this year.

This performance center is a wild card with recruiting but a lot of kids who will visit in the Spring and Summer won't see the finished product.

I would think Zeriah Beason is probably the best bet to commit here at some point. Marquez lives with him and Zeriah's parents have already bought in to the program.

After that, maybe look at some of the Trinity kids. I don't know about Mookie, but guys like Frenchie and St. John are at positions of need and haven't blown up with the blue bloods yet. I also think someone like Reggie Love may be beyond our grasp at this point. In state is always a disaster. Almost anyone with a P5 offer other than Illinois.

The results from this season really only matter in terms of Lovie not being fired. If he is then this class is a lost cause. It's going to be another small class so the staff also needs to be careful in terms of who they offer.

Another scenario is that this class never even gains any traction. Kansas had one commit when Beaty was fired and that commit was not part of the class that signed in December.

The Class of 2021 will be a full class since we will have 29 Scholarship Juniors on the roster this year so we need to have everything in order in terms of the coaching staff this time next year.

ESL running back Witherspoon is person to keep an eye on for the 2020 class.

 

[Hoppy2105]

Hindsight my friend. There will always be some good coaches on the market. Some obtainable by UI, others not so much. Dino Babers had 2 years of DIII success, and two at a MAC school. For comparison sake, most thought Beckman was a lack luster higher at the time. His conference record the two years prior to joining us were both 7-1 seasons. Babers went 5-3 and 7-1 respectively. Now you can argue Toledo is and was a better program/ easier to win at, or any other metrics, which I know I kind of cherry picked, and I will admit Babers had a better looking resume than Beckman did, but there were plenty of cautionary flags around him too.

He didn't make the best choice by retaining Cubit, but he was spot on with his assessment of his actions. He will not be the reason for 5 more years of futility, that will fall on Lovie/Whitman, if it does happen. I think he made the safe play, and for a man in his position, it was one of the right moves.

I was all in on Babers. It wasn’t hindsight at all. For some reason I felt he was a sure thing. He just has IT. I watched his EIU team in his 2nd year there and payed extra close attention to his BG teams. You could literally see the improvement from game to game and year to year.

I completely understand why PK was covering his own butt. But in this case, he had a chance to make a great hire and didn’t for those very conservative “cover my a$$” reasons.

If I were an incoming AD, I would have actually been okay with PK making the hire. Sure it might be a bust, but that’s one less hire Whitman would have had to make and if the coach WAS a bust, he could fire him sooner and not be saddled with the “you didn’t give him enough time” backlash since Whitman could counter with “he wasn’t my guy.” If he does work out, like I fee Babers would have, Whitman has one revenue sport on track and Illinois looks much better as a sports school in 2019.

All of this doesn’t matter, though, but it’s an interesting thing to discuss.

 

[ILL_INI]

If I were an incoming AD, I would have actually been okay with PK making the hire. Sure it might be a bust, but that’s one less hire Whitman would have had to make and if the coach WAS a bust, he could fire him sooner and not be saddled with the “you didn’t give him enough time” backlash since Whitman could counter with “he wasn’t my guy.” If he does work out, like I fee Babers would have, Whitman has one revenue sport on track and Illinois looks much better as a sports school in 2019.

This is part of the reason why a coach like Babers probably wouldn't take a job with an interim athletic director as his boss.

 

[Hoppy2105]

This is part of the reason why a coach like Babers probably wouldn't take a job with an interim athletic director as his boss.

Definitely a possibility. The thing I’d like to know is if PK reached out. If he did and was turned down, I’m okay with the punt. If he didn’t even reach out, that is a major foul. (IMO)

 

[Epsilon]

? Penn State won by 39.

Beckman says it's just a few plays difference.

 

[RedRocksIllini]

Beckman says it's just a few plays difference.

Right. By his logic, we were one or two plays from thrashing Iowa.

 

[ChiefGritty]

Interesting quote from November that resurfaced after the Kentucky win over PSU yesterday and overall progress of their program:

"Mark Stoops’ plan to build the Wildcats into a contender took six seasons, the first three with finishes under .500 (2-10 in a 2013 debut). That’s a lifetime of patience in modern college football and an eternity in the SEC. 'I’m not sure you could last anywhere else in the league with that kind of track record, except Vanderbilt,' an SEC assistant coach told SB Nation. But it was the right move all the way. That’s what’s interesting. Will it get other programs to reevaluate firing guys after three years? Maybe not. But... it’s a hell of an argument for letting coaches build out a roster over a long period.”
[https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/11/2/18053874/mark-stoops-kentucky-football-coach]

Hopefully this can be the story of Illinois football...

Kentucky Record Under Stoops
View attachment 3932

Kentucky Recruiting Under Stoops - 247Sports Avg. Rating [Illinois for comparison]
2013 - 0.8486 [0.8294]
2014 - 0.8683 [0.8225]
2015 - 0.8509 [0.8345]
2016 - 0.8504 [0.8126]
2017 - 0.8604 [0.8371]
2018 - 0.8611 [0.8381]
2019 - 0.8639 [0.8641]

View attachment 3933

F/+ ratings:

Joker Phillips at Kentucky
2010: +3.8%
2011: -18.2%
2012: -21.5%
Mark Stoops at Kentucky
2013: -16.1%
2014: -5.2%
2015: -15.3%

Beckman/Cubit at Illinois
2013: -4.0%
2014: -8.0%
2015: +0.2%
Lovie at Illinois
2016: -25.3%
2017: -45.5%
2018: -39.2%

247 Recruiting Class Rankings

Mark Stoops at Kentucky
2014: 22nd
2015: 38th
2016: 34th

Lovie at Illinois
2017: 46th
2018: 53rd
2019: 66th (so far)

In the era for which we have reliable ways to quantify recruiting rankings and team quality there is no example in which three years like Lovie has had has turned into success. Nothing even close. There are precious few examples of being this bad for three years under one coach period.

 

[Illwinsagain]

This is part of the reason why a coach like Babers probably wouldn't take a job with an interim athletic director as his boss.

If you give him enough $$$ and guarantees, it could work.

 

[Qwiksilvur]

Using the numbered ranking instead of the average rating ala IVWilson is bit disingenuous... This is why...per Werner
https://twitter.com/JWerner247/


#illini have a small class and it will remain that way as they focus current 4 spots on transfer targets.

Teams with 15 or fewer commits in rankings

56. Boise State (15)
61. Illinois (12)
68. Oregon State (15)
71. Utah (12)
72. Houston (15)
73. Kansas State (14)
74. Cincy (15)

 

[Deleted member 654622]

I am not saying I am arguing your point. But I am going to for fun. And it will be more geared to the possibilities for Lovie than Brohm.

1. Lovie stays the course and we win 2 more games this year.
2. The staff continues to get diamonds in the ruff in recruiting due to their ability to spot talent
3. Add those diamonds to IW, Beason and Shammond Cooper (who picks us on National Television), legit talent we can see right away
4. The football center gets finished and looks/works amazing
5. A few more Illini get into the pros that played under Lovie and surprisingly make impacts. They let it be known that Lovie's culture really prepared them to be on an NFL roster.
6. The Fresh and Soph on this D turn into Juniors and Sophs, showing much improvement on the field. We become a middle of the pack defense nationally
7. This defensive improvement added to the surprising fact we land Kahlil Tate as a Grad Transfer to lead this Offensive, results in 7 wins and a bowl victory over Miznoz.
8. We start to get a little more recruiting buzz. We land higher talent out of California, Texas and Florida, plus we extend our still fresh roots in Chicago and St. Louis. Now we are adding depth to our roster where kids are actually getting redshirted.
9. Now players like Bobby Roundtree are Seniors. We DOMINATE on defense. A more mature MJ Rivers/I Williams leads a very potent offense, anchored by a great, experienced offensive line.
10. We win the B1G West, lose to Michigan in the Champ game.
11. Lovie's boys actually start getting drafted. University of Illinois football is in the big time light again!
12. More recruits want to come...yada yada yada


Oh yeah, and Brohm leaves Purdue for Louisville after the 2019 season and they fall back to Indiana status.

Ok. How did I do?

OK I know not all are going to be right. But I still feel pretty good about my way over the top optimistic outlook for Lovie's tenure.
Excuse me while I ….

 

[Deleted member 645583]

I think Vic Fangio should be next Illini DC.

Seriously, I'd like to see Lovie overseeing the whole operation with a capable DC under his wing a la Bears and Nagy-Fangio.

 

[ILL_INI]

OK I know not all are going to be right. But I still feel pretty good about my way over the top optimistic outlook for Lovie's tenure.
Excuse me while I ….
View attachment 3952

Are you patting yourself on the back for point #3 (Shammond Cooper)? Because you whiffed on #1 and #7 and the rest are T.B.D.

 

[ivwilsoniv]

Using the numbered ranking instead of the average rating ala IVWilson is bit disingenuous... This is why...per Werner
https://twitter.com/JWerner247/


#illini have a small class and it will remain that way as they focus current 4 spots on transfer targets.

Teams with 15 or fewer commits in rankings

56. Boise State (15)
61. Illinois (12)
68. Oregon State (15)
71. Utah (12)
72. Houston (15)
73. Kansas State (14)
74. Cincy (15)

Which is exactly why I did it the way I did. Comparing Illinois' small class to other classes isn't really fair due to the way that 247Sports does their overall rankings. Looking at the quality of talent specifically is what we should be focusing on. Not completely disregarding the quantity, but only having 16 scholarships available limits your ability to bring in the 20+ size class that vaults your rankings into the 40s and 30s. Latest Avg.

Avg. Ranking (read incoming "talent") on 247Sports for 2019 Illinois recruiting class after Shammond's commitment last night is 0.8673, which for comparison is higher than Purdue's 25th ranked class with 25 recruits.