Foul Rate

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#51      
IlliniJim20
HTT said:
I watched the game. There was one hassle play from Jordan that he actually fouled the opponent but the ball went our way (inbound). Also the first 3 very quick fouls in early second half are just reckless - nothing to do with the refs.
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Actually the play you mention, iirc, went off the UNLV player. Jordan may have fouled him, but as a hustle play, diving for a loose ball, that call is often let go.

Probably a case where ref gives ball to team A, even though it bounced off that player, rather than call a foul on Team B.
 
#52      
IlliniJim20
Ransom Stoddard said:
What difference does it make? Do we really want a coach whining to the media like Collins does, or like Weber did? There's no empirical evidence that suggests it does any good.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk
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Worked for Lute back '01, may be off on the year, but Lute Olsen was working the refs in the media the week prior to our game. Complained about physicality, blah blah blah. It worked
 
#54      
Vermilion Slim
As everyone has been posting, I think we are going to have to get used to giving up more fouls per game given Underwood’s up-tempo style and aggressive defense. That being said, I think the big frustration with fouls this year comes down to three things:

1.) All the games have been close, so perceived injustices get magnified and quickly become decisions that turned a game against us.

2.) We have been subjected to a string of bad/questionable calls in a few games in a row: missed goaltending x 3, rule-breaking call reversals, free-throws awarded on a charge, and free-throws with less than a second left during a physical game.

3.) The foul discrepancy on the road (vs. Wake and UNLV) was pretty awful given both teams were physical and playing fast. At home Illinois is fouling 22.6/game and the competition is fouling 25.8/game; this gives us a +3.2 advantage. On the road, we are fouling 27.7/game and the opposition is fouling 19.7/game; this is a -8 disadvantage. It’s a small sample size, but that is a really big swing between home and away.
 
#55      
zpfled
Vermilion Slim said:
2.) We have been subjected to a string of bad/questionable calls in a few games in a row: missed goaltending x 3, rule-breaking call reversals, free-throws awarded on a charge, and free-throws with less than a second left during a physical game.
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This is a huge one. I'm frustrated with some of the ticky-tack fouls that got called against us vs UNLV when, for example, they got a rebound and then we got called for a reach-in foul...that just slows down the game and compounds an already-huge foul disparity. Otherwise, though, I don't have a problem with the foul calling so far this season.

The real head-scratcher calls, though, were the missed goaltending calls and that damn illegal reversal...those refs should get fined/fired/punched for that one.
 
#56      
wettsten
Vermilion Slim said:
As everyone has been posting, I think we are going to have to get used to giving up more fouls per game given Underwood’s up-tempo style and aggressive defense. That being said, I think the big frustration with fouls this year comes down to three things:

1.) All the games have been close, so perceived injustices get magnified and quickly become decisions that turned a game against us.

2.) We have been subjected to a string of bad/questionable calls in a few games in a row: missed goaltending x 3, rule-breaking call reversals, free-throws awarded on a charge, and free-throws with less than a second left during a physical game.

3.) The foul discrepancy on the road (vs. Wake and UNLV) was pretty awful given both teams were physical and playing fast. At home Illinois is fouling 22.6/game and the competition is fouling 25.8/game; this gives us a +3.2 advantage. On the road, we are fouling 27.7/game and the opposition is fouling 19.7/game; this is a -8 disadvantage. It’s a small sample size, but that is a really big swing between home and away.
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it doesn't really mean anything unless you can compare it to other P5 schools. it could be that everyone experiences foul discrepancies like this.
 
#57      
Ransom Stoddard
Statistical analysis from a decade ago which interestingly uses one of UIUC's tournament games from the '05 run.

This is the abstract for what I think is the paper I remember. The paper itself requires purchase, but the abstract at least provides a bit of insight.

...every additional unit of foul differential was found to raise the odds of a foul on the home team by 12.5% in 2004-2005. Using a generalized linear mixed model with the same terms, along with random effects for game, home team, and visiting team, raised that estimate to 19.9% and improved the quality of the model. A more in-depth analysis of this data also found that a foul on the home team becomes less likely as the game progresses, particularly when the home team is winning.
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Here's someone's analysis of that paper.

So what to make of all this? The academic studies certainly indicate that refs try to "keep it even" but when an aggressive defense, coupled with less experienced players, goes up against a predominantly zone D, the refs can't (and shouldn't) try to even it out.
 
#58      
BRucks
pruman91 said:
I'd like to hear what he thinks " off the record "
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Well, at the Rebounders meeting today he stated that the fouls called on us in Nevada were fouls that we committed. He had no problem with the refs. He had a problem with our players, especially those committing fouls in the backcourt.
 
#59      
Ga65
BRucks said:
Well, at the Rebounders meeting today he stated that the fouls called on us in Nevada were fouls that we committed. He had no problem with the refs. He had a problem with our players, especially those committing fouls in the backcourt.
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The Wake game was a travesty but UNLV didn't seem nearly as bad to me. We need to eliminate the offensive fouls. Our aggressive defensive style is going to result in fouls but we are lucky to have depth in the backcourt.
 
#60      
pruman91
BRucks said:
Well, at the Rebounders meeting today he stated that the fouls called on us in Nevada were fouls that we committed. He had no problem with the refs. He had a problem with our players, especially those committing fouls in the backcourt.
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Still not what I would call off the record.....It is what it is.....the goal tending calls and call reversals are what bugs me more than aggressive fouls...we have to play aggressive D to make up for our limited frontcourt numbers
 
#61      
yeahyeahyeah
BRucks said:
Well, at the Rebounders meeting today he stated that the fouls called on us in Nevada were fouls that we committed. He had no problem with the refs. He had a problem with our players, especially those committing fouls in the backcourt.
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like the first one where Alstork loses the ball (mistake 1) and then goes recklessly after the person with the ball (mistake 2)... a little later he's guarding a player driving fast on the right and get's enough body and that's foul #2, and he's out of there.
 
#62      
doowink
The number of fouls we're committing per game is to high...but with the defensive pressure that the coaching staff wants the players to put on our opponents we're going to foul more than most teams.....what I've been a little upset with is the number of fouls we've committed on 3 pt shots....don't know exactly the number of 3 pt shots we've fouled on this year, but it seems too many
 
#63      
alexander58
Blaming officiating for your problems is like cursing the dark. You play through tough calls like you play through injuries. Both are incidental. Winning teams don’t constantly blame officials for their losses.
 
#64      
I Bomb
That's kind of like saying the rich don't complain about being poor... Besides, complaining about the refs is half the fun.
 
#65      
BRucks
alexander58 said:
Blaming officiating for your problems is like cursing the dark. You play through tough calls like you play through injuries. Both are incidental. Winning teams don’t constantly blame officials for their losses.
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Lute Olson must not have gotten the memo.
 
#66      
PtownIllini8
IlliniJim20 said:
Worked for Lute back '01, may be off on the year, but Lute Olsen was working the refs in the media the week prior to our game. Complained about physicality, blah blah blah. It worked
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Yep, that's the year. Both he and Roy complained about that. It helped Lute, but not Roy as we crushed KU. Still sticks in my craw, but was there to see us get payback in a big way at Allstate Arena in '05. Best game ever!!!
 
#67      
alexander58
PtownIllini8 said:
Yep, that's the year. Both he and Roy complained about that. It helped Lute, but not Roy as we crushed KU. Still sticks in my craw, but was there to see us get payback in a big way at Allstate Arena in '05. Best game ever!!!
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Arizona was the better team. Self’s plan was to use to his deep bench in both of those games. It worked well against Kansas, but against Zona..... not so much.
In the press conference after the game, Self was asked about all the fouls called against the Illini. He said “we fouled a lot”. IIRC , Frankie Williams was completely taken out of the game by Richard Jefferson.
 
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