I'm going to say this is about as close to a must win as possible for our NCAA hopes.
Using current rpi numbers (yes, I know they will change, but what can you do), we are currently:
1-1 quadrant 1 (6 games left).
0-3 quadrant 2 (3 games left).
1-1 quadrant 3 (5 games left).
7-0 quadrant 4 (2 games left).
Assuming we win all remaining games in quadrants 2-4, we sit at 19-5 (no Augustana) overall, 10-2 big ten. This includes beating Wisconsin, Nebraska, Indiana, and Rutgers on the road. Also Nebraska, Wisconsin, Penn State, Indiana, Iowa, and Rutgers at home.
Beating Michigan State and Purdue will be very difficult, so I'm going to assume we lose those three games for arguments sake. Now we are hypothetically 19-8 overall, 10-5 big ten.
This leaves three games left:
@ Minnesota
@ Michigan
@ Ohio State
Three tough games. I think we need to go 2-1 here to be a very solid bubble team. 3-0 to offset a loss to any in the bottom 3 quadrants that I earlier assumed were wins. This is a young team and I don't see us making 0 hiccups through the end of the season, making this just about a must win ball game.
2-1 puts us at 21-9 overall, 12-6 in the big ten.
Unlikely to happen IMO, but this is the path I see where we have a fighting chance to go dancing. It has to start with a win tonight.
Go Illini!
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