Game Thread: Illinois at Ohio State

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#3      
Hereforit
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#7      
Second place is 1st loser
How fun would it be to be down only 10 or 7 headed into the fourth
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It would be a blast, but the only way that happens is if we get an inordinate amount of turnovers and the only way that happens is if they're forced to throw the ball and the only way they're forced to throw it is if we can stuff the run. We can't. There will be no reason for them to do anything, but run between the tackles.

For arguments sake, let's say we do mildly well against the run. We don't have anywhere near the speed or physicality with our corners to stay within 5 yards of some of those receivers. They'll have to play 10 yards off to keep from being blown by, which is going to open up the short stuff, then the corners have to be able to tackle. Tackling, across the board, has been an major problem and now they're being asked to be sensational vs the best athletes and NFL prospects (Oregon has an argument) that we'll see all year.

To beat OSU, we'll have to be decent vs the run and get a pass rush without having to blitz. We haven't shown the ability to do any of that.

I think we play a decent first half of the first quarter, but then the route will be on.

We'll give them a better game than Kent State, which puts us in the 49-13 type range. We get two FG's and a TD, possibly late, and they score when they want until they take their foot off the gas out of respect for Bielema.

Sucks, but I don't see any avenue for us remotely making this competitive. There's not one position on the field where we can say it's a stalemate.
 
#8      
DeonThomas
Been watching the Fox pregame and I'm about to puke. Give me Brian Barnhart and the guys on WDWS -- PLEASE!

(Let's quiet the crowd, the FOX broadcast team, and especially Urban Myer with a stellar first half!).
 
#9      
lstewart53x3
TheChief4Life said:
Our 2007 would be 26 point favorites against this team too. Honestly, the 14 point spread at the time was more about how good Ohio State was than Illinois was bad. Illinois was 2 stupid plays away from being 10-1 at that point. They had lost three games by a total of like 14 points; two of them in games in which they had the ball to end the game I think (including that bullcrap Iowa hidden receiver call).
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Uhm no, it wouldn’t. I can’t find the SP+ numbers from 2007 for a 1:1 comparison, but our 2007 team finished ranked #35 in FPI. This year’s team is currently ranked #33 in SP+, #44 in FPI, #39 in Slate, and #30 in FEI for an average ranking of #37. So the matchup would be closer to a pick ‘em than either team substantially favored.

And that Ohio St team wasn’t that good either. They finished the year ranked #7 in FPI (+19.1) They’re currently #1 in FPI (+28.2) and #1 SP+ (+29.7). So this year’s Ohio St would be a 10’sh point favorite on a neutral field.
 
#12      
skyIdub
DeonThomas said:
Been watching the Fox pregame and I'm about to puke. Give me Brian Barnhart and the guys on WDWS -- PLEASE!

(Let's quiet the crowd, the FOX broadcast team, and especially Urban Myer with a stellar first half!).
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Lol, surely you didn't tune in expecting them to talk about us.
 
#13      
pvaughn8
lstewart53x3 said:
Uhm no, it wouldn’t. I can’t find the SP+ numbers from 2007 for a 1:1 comparison, but our 2007 team finished ranked #35 in FPI. This year’s team is currently ranked #33 in SP+, #44 in FPI, #39 in Slate, and #30 in FEI for an average ranking of #37. So the matchup would be closer to a pick ‘em than either team substantially favored.

And that Ohio St team wasn’t that good either. They finished the year ranked #7 in FPI (+19.1) They’re currently #1 in FPI (+28.2) and #1 SP+ (+29.7). So this year’s Ohio St would be a 10’sh point favorite on a neutral field.
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Let's see where this team finishes before comparing non conference 2026 to 2007 end of season. I wouldn't bet on this team to win one of PSU, UW, or OSU like 07
 
#14      
Second place is 1st loser
Bless all you happy optimists, I hope you are right. Sincerely.

Speaking for the other side I worry about our #1 QB getting hurt playing behind an OL full of second and third stringers.
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That's where I'm at. If we can make it out of there in one piece, it's a win of sorts. Their second string would start on our roster. It is what it is. I hate Saturdays where we won't have a shot(literally 0%), but we have two of them this year.
 
#15      
TheChief4Life
lstewart53x3 said:
Uhm no, it wouldn’t. I can’t find the SP+ numbers from 2007 for a 1:1 comparison, but our 2007 team finished ranked #35 in FPI. This year’s team is currently ranked #33 in SP+, #44 in FPI, #39 in Slate, and #30 in FEI for an average ranking of #37. So the matchup would be closer to a pick ‘em than either team substantially favored.

And that Ohio St team wasn’t that good either. They finished the year ranked #7 in FPI (+19.1) They’re currently #1 in FPI (+28.2) and #1 SP+ (+29.7). So this year’s Ohio St would be a 10’sh point favorite on a neutral field.
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Oh man... I looked into this more, and you're right. I feel like even I'm remembering the '07 team more fondly than it actually was and '07's OSU team WAY more fondly than it was. Refusing to believe I could be wrong, I had AI run some algorithms using cross ERA SP+ ratings and tools used today to set lines, etc etc and it told me that on a neutral field (which I think is hilarious) '26 would be about a 6 to 6.5 point favorite over '07's team. That's crazy!

So, my bad! I retract my previous comment! that said, it's still early season. Like pvaughn said, let' see how conference play turns out... lol
 
#17      
lstewart53x3
TheChief4Life said:
Oh man... I looked into this more, and you're right. I feel like even I'm remembering the '07 team more fondly than it actually was and '07's OSU team WAY more fondly than it was. Refusing to believe I could be wrong, I had AI run some algorithms using cross ERA SP+ ratings and tools used today to set lines, etc etc and it told me that on a neutral field (which I think is hilarious) '26 would be about a 6 to 6.5 point favorite over '07's team. That's crazy!

So, my bad! I retract my previous comment! that said, it's still early season. Like pvaughn said, let' see how conference play turns out... lol
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Nostalgia’s a hell of a drug. The ‘07 team is likely my favorite team ever too so I get it. Had season tickets with my dad that year. Such a fun team to watch.
 
#21      
jimbo72
We look like a JV team playing 8a Varsity team. 64-10 Buckeyes. We were asleep at wheel for Portal and Defense Coaching hires. I don't know what CoachB was doing other than waiting for Henry to get hired. Horrible mistake. We'll finish 3-9, 4-8 hopefully.
 
#22      
jimbo72
Nostalgia’s a hell of a drug. The ‘07 team is likely my favorite team ever too so I get it. Had season tickets with my dad that year. Such a fun team to watch.
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Nfl players all over that 07 team. Despite not having a throwing Juice, one of my favorite memories. And I go back to 88, 89,90 91. Coach White and Coach Mack. LineBackerU.
 
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