Game Thread: Illinois vs Houston

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#51      
Remember, doesn’t matter if we win by 30 or 1. Pretty or ugly. Just win & advance. Let’s go illini’! You got this.
 
#52      
I saw the stat that Illinois is 13 and 1 when Kofi scores 20 or more. Here's hoping for over 20 for kofi!.

Sounds like Houston really likes to take away the three by pressuring the guards. That might be able to open up Kofi
 
#54      
Houston is very good when you look at the various metrics and efficiency stats. But, do those metrics take into account opponent strength, or are they just based off of raw statistics? I'm unsure how they rank so highly in offensive efficiency when they shoot so poorly from 3-pt range and the FT line. They also aren't elite as far as turnovers/game. Maybe they just get so many extra possessions from offensive rebounding (they're 1st in Div. I in off. reb. %).

If you look at SOS, Illinois is 10th and Houston is 51st. How much different would the efficiency metrics be if both teams played the same competition over the 33-35 games/sample size?

I know Vegas is very good at this, so -4.5 HOU is probably about right, but I think too many people are giving us next to no chance to win today.

ILL!
Ken Pom takes SOS into account.
 
#55      
We need to avoid long scoring droughts today.
LFG!!!!
 
#56      
Houston is very good when you look at the various metrics and efficiency stats. But, do those metrics take into account opponent strength, or are they just based off of raw statistics? I'm unsure how they rank so highly in offensive efficiency when they shoot so poorly from 3-pt range and the FT line. They also aren't elite as far as turnovers/game. Maybe they just get so many extra possessions from offensive rebounding (they're 1st in Div. I in off. reb. %).

If you look at SOS, Illinois is 10th and Houston is 51st. How much different would the efficiency metrics be if both teams played the same competition over the 33-35 games/sample size?

I know Vegas is very good at this, so -4.5 HOU is probably about right, but I think too many people are giving us next to no chance to win today.

ILL!
Offensive rebounding will drastically improve your offensive efficiency - points per possession go up when you get more shots per possession.

I’m not sure how much SOS factors into efficiency metrics, but i imagine to some degree it can’t capture everything. From what I could understand on KenPom, it is difficult to see where SOS really factors into the O and D metrics. I admittedly didn’t dig super deep, but it sounds like the metrics do indeed factor in SOS, but not sure how that all works as it seems it would be a bit of a circular formula (strength of opponent is based on your own strength which is based on your strength of schedule), so not sure how they calculate it all out to avoid that
 
#57      

Whitmans Sampler

Eastern Iowa
Come out with your hair on fire. We got this.

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#65      
Have a hard time taking KenPom ratings seriously with them being #2 (ahead of Arizona, for example). If they were in the teens, I'd be more receptive.
Honestly, I feel like KenPom is one of the better systems in place, IF you just realize that it is a computer and there are times there are outliers. Obviously, Houston is good and for whatever reason, this system puts them up higher than most.
 
#67      
I think the question is how? How do you determine the strength of team b while considering their strength of schedule, which inherently includes team A
SOS is a line item in a teams overall rating. It doesn’t effect O or D efficiency. Personally, I think the SOS adjustment is too weak. That’s why we have several mid major teams that I believe to be overrated by Ken Pom.
 
#68      
Man, I'd love to see us win this.

We absolutely cannot come out and shoot 0-9 from three, need to hit 75% plus from the free throw line and hang with them on the boards.

Guard play will determine this, and Hawkins can be the x factor, we really need his energy.
 
#70      
Well, guys, this is it. It’s one thing to come out flat/stiff/“off” in a First Round game vs. a 13-seed in what is pretty much everyone’s first REAL NCAA Tournament game. It is quite another to not take that absolute gift of a wake-up call and then not come out fired up for a chance to go to the Sweet Sixteen.

I’m a bit scarred from Friday, but I’ve seen these guys battle before and I’m optimistic they’ll come out and give Houston all they’ve got! Let’s do this.
 
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