Illini Basketball 2016-2017

#526      

whovous

Washington, DC
I figured it would be interesting to show how one of our recent opponents scouted us and how they planned on trying to defeat us.

Most telling for me was that the report was full of compliments for Illini player offensive skills, but almost all were described as sub-par defenders.
 
#527      
I'm more frustrated than I've ever been as a fan..

As far as not understanding the hire, that surprises me. We went after a couple big fish to no avail, and Groce had (has) a fantastic reputation recruiting, and getting good tournament runs from his Ohio team. In 4 years at Ohio, he'd built quite a nice team and had just gotten them to a S16. Under the circumstances, it looked like a very reasonable play.

The nightmare scenario for me is we're better this year, but still not more than the sum of the parts. We wind up sub .500 in the BIG, and very nervous come at-large time. With a fourth miss, well, it doesn't take a lot of imagination to envision some pretty bad fallout.

There's no reason to go think about that now, though. We have 3 resume building opportunities over the next few weeks with bellweather games: a ranked West Virginia team, then NC State and VCU. If we drop 2 of those, the mob will start forming.
 
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#528      
Most telling for me was that the report was full of compliments for Illini player offensive skills, but almost all were described as sub-par defenders.

this, plus a lot of the defensive issues seemed to note lateral quickness as the problem, including all of our bigs.
 
#529      

BananaShampoo

Captain 'Paign
Phoenix, AZ
this, plus a lot of the defensive issues seemed to note lateral quickness as the problem, including all of our bigs.

Noticed that, too. In fact, only JT was called out for his plus defense ("will apply significant ball pressure defensively"). Perhaps that's why we're seeing him out there as much as we are.
 
#530      
As far as not understanding the hire, that surprises me. We went after a couple big fish to no avail, and Groce had (has) a fantastic reputation recruiting, and getting good tournament runs from his Ohio team. In 4 years at Ohio, he'd built quite a nice team and had just gotten them to a S16. Under the circumstances, it looked like a very reasonable play.

The nightmare scenario for me is we're better this year, but still not more than the sum of the parts. We wind up sub .500 in the BIG, and very nervous come at-large time. With a fourth miss, well, it doesn't take a lot of imagination to envision some pretty bad fallout.

There's no reason to go think about that now, though. We have 3 resume building opportunities over the next few weeks with bellweather games: a ranked West Virginia team, then NC State and VCU. If we drop 2 of those, the mob will start forming.

good post, +1 on the hire, I agree it was the best play we had at the time & for what it is worth I still think there is time for this to still look like a great hire in 3-4 years.

Point 2, this is a hard year to gauge...we are fragile/rusty (4 players coming off season ending injuries + JCl summer injury, Black suspension, & Kipper sitting out), we aren't going to be a great defensive team, we aren't very athletic, pg remains a huge concern,...but we do have a lot of experience, a very good player in Hill, a hope at improved pg play with the return of Abrams + adding TJL, a bunch of sophomores where some improvement should be expected, and we replace K Lewis/K. Nunn, with 5 additional faces from where we ended last year. We absolutely should be better, but we are likely fighting for middle of the pack. 2017 is another concern for me, we lose a lot & need this years sophomores to take a big step forward in 2017, find a go to scorer to replace Hill, need more help at center/big even if we hold onto Tilmon, will be counting on TJL and 2 freshman to anchor pg...easy to think we may take a step back in 2017 from this year, even if we are on the right track.

Point 3, definitely too early to throw in the towel on this year. Even if we drop 2/3, let's get Black back, let's shake the rust off of Abrams & Thorne, see if Kipper can play his way into the rotation.
 
#531      
Noticed that, too. In fact, only JT was called out for his plus defense ("will apply significant ball pressure defensively"). Perhaps that's why we're seeing him out there as much as we are.

IMO, defense is part of it, assists/to is part of it, he is only pg who played on year's team is part of it. I'm still hoping Abrams is truly back & I think he will be a better defender than Tate & get the lion's share of the minutes.

The athletic/lateral quickness at big gets a bit better when you add Black back, but we really can't fix that problem. Just hard to see us being better than a mediocre defense team because of lateral quickness & athletic concerns.
 
#532      
I figured it would be interesting to show how one of our recent opponents scouted us and how they planned on trying to defeat us.

Weird how the plan to stop- Using Wade, Rondo and Curry names. My guess is

Wade- won't drive around, body him
Rondo- let him shoot, don't let him drive
Curry- guard everywhere!
 
#534      
So a drop step?

Similar I think. A drop step is a seal off move, but if I understand this, it's from a specific position with your back to the basket, facing away from the base line, and going immediately towards the basket off the closer foot. I think it's more of a speed move in that respect.

That's a good move for Thorne --with his length and size he cam often get that off before a reaction.
 
#535      

UofIChE06

Pittsburgh
There's no reason to go think about that now, though. We have 3 resume building opportunities over the next few weeks with bellweather games: a ranked West Virginia team, then NC State and VCU. If we drop 2 of those, the mob will start forming.

You realize the team won't be the favorite in any of those three games. On top of that only 1 is a home game where things tend to go more favorably. Winning one is not the end of the world by any means.
 
#536      
Similar I think. A drop step is a seal off move, but if I understand this, it's from a specific position with your back to the basket, facing away from the base line, and going immediately towards the basket off the closer foot. I think it's more of a speed move in that respect.

That's a good move for Thorne --with his length and size he cam often get that off before a reaction.

Looking at some of the other post play diagrams, I think it is basically horizontal drop step. Instead of starting in the post and moving vertically down with the pivot, you start more outside the lane and deeper. Then you use the same type of pivot to move horizontally to the basket.

I think you may be right that it requires a bit more speed to avoid getting cut off by the defender.
 
#537      

Rad

Nashville, TN
The thing that concerns me is we have players who have been in the same system playing against Big Ten teams for 2, 3 and even 4 years and we are still talking about our lateral quickness after a game against Northern Kentucky. Experience and practice/repetition should make the veterans capable of causing significant problems offensively for young division 1 or 2 players. Some of the Illini's best defensive teams were veteran teams not blessed with lateral quickness (think Winters, Altenberger, Q. Richardson, Montgomery...). This and lack of offensive identity is what bothers me most regarding our coaching. jmo
 
#538      
good post, +1 on the hire, I agree it was the best play we had at the time & for what it is worth I still think there is time for this to still look like a great hire in 3-4 years.

Point 2, this is a hard year to gauge...we are fragile/rusty (4 players coming off season ending injuries + JCl summer injury, Black suspension, & Kipper sitting out), we aren't going to be a great defensive team, we aren't very athletic, pg remains a huge concern,...but we do have a lot of experience, a very good player in Hill, a hope at improved pg play with the return of Abrams + adding TJL, a bunch of sophomores where some improvement should be expected, and we replace K Lewis/K. Nunn, with 5 additional faces from where we ended last year. We absolutely should be better, but we are likely fighting for middle of the pack. 2017 is another concern for me, we lose a lot & need this years sophomores to take a big step forward in 2017, find a go to scorer to replace Hill, need more help at center/big even if we hold onto Tilmon, will be counting on TJL and 2 freshman to anchor pg...easy to think we may take a step back in 2017 from this year, even if we are on the right track.

Point 3, definitely too early to throw in the towel on this year. Even if we drop 2/3, let's get Black back, let's shake the rust off of Abrams & Thorne, see if Kipper can play his way into the rotation.

All of this. Who would of thought UConn could be 0-2 right now? Would many of thought they would be the team to drop two games if compared to us?

Teams all have different reasons for struggling, and we aren't any different. I think getting Abrams and Thorne to play like they did at 80-90% of their healthiest is goal number one. They are game changers-- people seem to forget Tracy was at least an above average defender and Thorne was a shutdown post guy.

Goal two is developing JCL. Like you said, not only for this year, but more importantly years to come. Being a catch/shoot 3pt specialist isn't what we need from him and if he has NBA aspirations hes gotta become a facilitator offensively and a more dynamic shooter. Saw a little of this at the end of the season last year, driving and passing/shooting. He doesn't have to have elite midrange shooting but have two or three diverse weapons in his arsenal will not only help the team and his development, but also make him a better 3pt shot due to defenses having to respect other options.

I don't expect major change this year, but next year hes gotta become a leader.
 
#541      
Goal two is developing JCL. Like you said, not only for this year, but more importantly years to come. Being a catch/shoot 3pt specialist isn't what we need from him and if he has NBA aspirations hes gotta become a facilitator offensively and a more dynamic shooter. Saw a little of this at the end of the season last year, driving and passing/shooting. He doesn't have to have elite midrange shooting but have two or three diverse weapons in his arsenal will not only help the team and his development, but also make him a better 3pt shot due to defenses having to respect other options.


This....

JCL, DJW, and MF need to step into leadership roles this year, and with the 2017 class (hopefully with JT in it) lead our Illini back to greatness!!
 
#542      
You realize the team won't be the favorite in any of those three games. On top of that only 1 is a home game where things tend to go more favorably. Winning one is not the end of the world by any means.

End of the world? That seems a bit dramatic.

We should have more than a dozen games against tournament teams on our schedule because the BIG is deep, if not top heavy. If we win 1 in 3 of those games, we still might get to the dance. However, many of those teams are projected to be well ahead of us and are more likely to be in the loss column. So when you have one against a similar opponent that gives you a decent opportunity to win, you could argue those are pretty important. That's my view, personally, that we'll get maybe 14 of these games, with about half a dozen of them as serious underdogs. West Virginia will be a load, so that's one I'm not terribly optimistic about. The other 2 in that span are, again based on the logic I just put forth, very important games. If the goal is to squeak into the dance, maybe those losses aren't the ones that tank us, but if we don't have a sense of urgency now, I'm not going to assume we make it up later.

YMMV
 
#543      
Winthrop is one of the stronger teams Illinois will play against in the non-con. That's darn good timing the more you think about it.

It is good timing and I don't think that is a coincidence. I think this schedule was designed to start easy and ramp in to the game against West Virginia.
 
#544      

Bailey

Los Angeles
Weird how the plan to stop- Using Wade, Rondo and Curry names. My guess is

Wade- won't drive around, body him
Rondo- let him shoot, don't let him drive
Curry- guard everywhere!

I think it pertains to how close you can guard him as a jump shooting threat.

Curry - get in his shirt, take away shooting space.
Wade - cushion, in between
Rondo - dare them to shoot a jump shot
 
#545      

Ryllini

Lombard
I was looking at those scouting reports and specifically with regards to AJ. There was a play in the first half against McKendre, where he caught the ball behind the 3 point line and he made a terrific pump fake and got right to the rim. I don't necessarily remember the result of the play, I think he was fouled and resulted in free throws, but that pump fake just got me giddy. Last year that would've been a rushed, flat footed shot and a brick, but this year development resulted in a pump fake, dribble drive, and foul shots. We have some very physical wings, who obviously can fill it up from deep, but to put the onus on defenses by attacking the rim will and should be a huge asset to this team going forward, as this team can get up the floor in a hurry.

A small thing, but I see you AJ.
 
#546      
The thing that concerns me is we have players who have been in the same system playing against Big Ten teams for 2, 3 and even 4 years and we are still talking about our lateral quickness after a game against Northern Kentucky. Experience and practice/repetition should make the veterans capable of causing significant problems offensively for young division 1 or 2 players. Some of the Illini's best defensive teams were veteran teams not blessed with lateral quickness (think Winters, Altenberger, Q. Richardson, Montgomery...). This and lack of offensive identity is what bothers me most regarding our coaching. jmo

I've been concerned about defense too. We are allowing opponents to drive way too much, especially PGs. Then we collapse the paint and leave open shooters on the perimeter.
 
#548      

CAHALL15

Central Illinois
I think a lot of people, on this board especially given AJ's dad being a former poster, want to see AJ really do well and come into his own. I know I do.

I second that. I think one of these games it's just going to click for him. He's a lot stronger and more athletic and we all saw his skills before he ever put on the uniform. Now all of that needs to transfer over to practice and games.
 
#549      
He still just looks a little rushed. I don't know if it's nerves, extreme desire to be successful and getting himself riled up or what. When he does break through it is gonna be fun to watch.
 
#550      

Hoppy2105

Little Rock, Arkansas
He still just looks a little rushed. I don't know if it's nerves, extreme desire to be successful and getting himself riled up or what. When he does break through it is gonna be fun to watch.

Definitely. I know we all WANT to see wings make impacts as freshman and then become solid contributors or even starters after the sophomore leap, but maybe AJ will hit his stride late this year or as a junior.

If that is the case, all I can say is, perfect timing.