With the way it appears underwood likes to play, kipper and jones at 4 is optimal. No way you put an slow-footed lesser athlete at the four in this scheme. Think Villanova and just maybe people are too worried about needing another big.
Illini Basketball 2018-2019
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With the way it appears underwood likes to play, kipper and jones at 4 is optimal. No way you put an slow-footed lesser athlete at the four in this scheme. Think Villanova and just maybe people are too worried about needing another big.
That's the wrong way to think of it. It's not so much a question of athleticism in quickness terms as length. You want a 4 who clogs passing lanes and can rotate over and defend at the rim.
Kipper is not ideal there and I wouldn't imagine Jones could do it at all, at least not as a freshman.
We're gonna have to make it work and exploit some mismatches at the other end.
Tevo
- Wilmette, IL
Regarding our front court next year, one positive thing is that you don't HAVE to have offense from your bigs to win, but you DO need to have defense from them. Fortunately, the big guys we have seem to be long enough and athletic enough to be good defenders. Unfortunately, they are all freshmen or a low-minutes sophomore. And those guys tend to be fouling machines. Unless our perimeter defenders are fast enough to stay in front of opposing guards, I predict our bigs will be in perpetual foul trouble, and the opponents will have a field day from the line. If Kane and Ebo can prove to play solid rim-protecting defense, and help on drives without fouling, we'll be a LOT better as a team, whether or not they can score much.
Agreed. Defense and 3 point shooting is the key to improvement. Both were horrendous last year.
Kane/Ebo rim protection and increased length from wings will hopefully improve the defense BU wants to play.
sacraig
- The desert
We really just need to find 40 minutes of "better defense than Finke" time.
Year 1 of this rebuild(or with any rebuild) is about instilling an identity on defense. We turn opponents over at a high clip. I for one thought it was pretty impressive we were able to force so many turnovers and get steals at the rate we did considering we weren’t a particularly long, athletic, seasoned, or all that talented of a team. If the defense improves I consider the year a success. The 2 glaring areas of improvement were 2pt fg % and a hilarious inability to be effective in transition once we forced a turnover. We couldn’t convert there, whether it be a take to the hole or a transition 3. It’s a huge momentum piece that we couldn’t capitalize on. The pieces to improve here are coming together.
A very valid point. We created a lot of havoc even with weirdo lineups and a bunch of freshman. We also fouled a ton and were the most dunked-on team in America though, so those are the next steps.
Kenpom can't "objectively say whatever", it can only say what the stats say actually happened.
Saying whatever is saying stuff like "2-11 in close games" when what actually happened is that we were 6-8 in games decided by 7 or less; 3-4 in games decided by 5 or less. Which is pretty close to being split down the middle.
With the pressure up top that Underwood wants, we'll always foul a fair bit and give up a decent number of layups/dunks. That's what happens when the other team breaks the pressure. Clearly need to cut both of the issues down, but we have to accept it will never look like a Weber defense.
I think the next steps are to get more efficient at turning those turnovers into points (the 7 second offense), and when that fails, transitioning from the 7 second to the set offense. That transition was brutal last year, often taking over half the shot clock. Get the offense in rhythm to get the defense in rhythm.
We were #343 out of 351 D1 teams in KenPom's "Luck" rating, which reflects that balance of close games. But our #102 overall rating takes that into account, it's not like we would have flown up the list had we inbounded the ball against Maryland and had Nebraska's buzzer beater rim out. Seeing through those lucky bounces to the underlying quality of a team is what advanced stats are all about.
Absolutely. True at West Virginia as well.
We're never going to be among the nation's leaders in FG% defense, but we can't be 313th like we were last year either.
If we can keep the turnovers, do a better job of exploiting those turnovers at the other end as you said, and get into just the top 200 in FG% D, we'll be much improved.
It really is a chicken v. egg question of whether offensive improvements will drive defensive improvements or vice versa. I think they will show up in the games/stats at the same time, that's how closely I think they are related. This system is very much a "game" system, not two separate offensive and defensive systems.
Do not see how we could not improve on defense. Finke gets the blame but Black was awful also. Then there was Smith who was too slow and out of position. The bad news however is that the best two defensive men in Alstork and Lucas are gone. Do not believe Feliz is an equal replacement defensively. But I do believe the length and quickness of Ayo, Jones, Williams, Ebo, Kane and the improvement of Trent and Kipper will make us significantly better. Would love to see Braun added to the group. Our avg pts were 6 below our opponents with them shooting .504 and us shooting .436 and yet we were still equal without the free throws. 3 less dunks, 2 more 3 pointers, equal FTs, lots of possibilities.
eMitch
- Quincy, IL
But, had a few of those gone our way, maybe our guys have more confidence and bring that to the court which swings a few more games our way. Maybe Mark Smith play with confidence instead of without (eh, probably not).
The stats say what happened, but they don't include any what ifs. Yes, what ifs are like excuses, nobody wants to hear about them, but a what if is a what if because you don't know. Who knows what other dominoes fall if the first one doesn't.
sacraig
- The desert
I am a big fan of the KenPom ratings (as I am with most statistical methods like that). To me, though, the fact that we were #102 is not cause for despair necessarily. It seems to me that on paper, we are overall a more athletic team and a less experienced team than last year, which leads to a lot of unknowns. Being #102 means that if things go a bit our way (particularly if the freshmen develop quickly enough that we can compete well in conference play) then we don't have that far to go to really be a nice, competitive team.
Of course, if the freshmen show the opposite trend and take longer to develop (which might be more likely since most are under-the-radar type guys), then we also have the potential to be pretty bad.
Time will tell, and I can't wait to find out.
Of course, if the freshmen show the opposite trend and take longer to develop (which might be more likely since most are under-the-radar type guys), then we also have the potential to be pretty bad.
Time will tell, and I can't wait to find out.
Peoria Illini
- Peoria, IL
Agree. But I like that these newcomers come from winning programs, and hopefully we are tougher mentally than we were last year. Too much bad body language when times got tough, and that will spread like a disease through a team.
State championship guys like Ayo and Griffin. Braun if he commits comes from a state power in KS. Giorgi comes from a program that has a lot of top talent, so competing everyday in practice is good for him. Feliz from a high ranked JUCO. Jones is about the only one that didn't see a ton of success compared to the other schools.
sacraig
- The desert
I agree with all of that.
Yes and yes. Guard play wins NCAA games.
DudeIllini
- Malibu
How do you quantify team cohesion and system execution other than ultimately scoring more team points than the opponent? Seems like you're saying that you think we should win more, which I support.
Winning games obviously has a lot to do with it. But there can be complications there. Injuries, suspensions, guys playing better late than they did early, gaping holes in the lineup, there can be reasons for reasonable optimism that defy the win-loss record in certain ways.
Last year's team had nowhere to hide. They lost games because they executed extremely poorly. They simply did not play basketball well, and showed no evidence of taking to the coaching they were being given.
If that stuff changes this year AND we stay healthy AND the frontcourt situation works itself out, we're gonna win a lot more games. But if we lose next year, it makes a huge difference whether it's because we lack a full, balanced roster versus us just looking like a soggy mess at both ends of the floor from November to March again.
Tevo
- Wilmette, IL
Let's say each of those guys, if playing for 40 minutes, might have 8 good minutes, 20 serviceable minutes, and 12 bad, oh-my-God-he's-a-freshman minutes. The trouble is, when any one guy goes in, you're not sure what he's going to give you. You could put Kane in and see him flounder, and then quickly sub in Ebo, and watch HIM flounder, and then put Kipper in (undersized and totally not a paint defender) and watch him be disinterested, and on and on. It's not the case that having a large rotation of 6 guys to play 1 spot means that the total performance you get in that spot is any good. In fact, since only two of them have played even a minute of college ball, and three of them should really be playing as one of the "4 out" spots, then it's reasonable to doubt that we'll get much serviceable play out of the "1 in" position. At least this year.
Team cohesion = less mistakes, fewer turnovers, defense lapses, maybe accurate passes. No way to gauge points gained but those things are what makes difference in close games.
The staff has assembled a group with more talent and are winners. These are things that can't be taught. It is part of the culture we want. Be on the same page , playing as a unit is as important than anything. Take UM for example, they made it to the highest point last year, mostly by being a unit , making team plays, hate to use them as an example, but they are in B1G, and we have similarities in style of play. Plug in right guys I'll take abit of the success they have had in last couple years anytime soon!
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