illini80
- Forgottonia
My biggest fear is we are forced to play Kipper at the five and we take minutes away from one of our best scoring threats because of fouls and fatigue from trying to guard guys 6 inches taller than him.
Illini Basketball 2018-2019
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LOL... given that I have always been a strong advocate of Fall recruiting and a strong critic of the 5th year transfers or chasing long shot 300+ players, 2ppg transfers, or Zdors in the Spring that choose to go to Weber State I'll chuck your post to the basket of blind faith ignorance that is actually the opposite of what my post claims (a strong Fall recruiting class to eliminate Spring desperation hail Mary's).
It is Fall recruiting that is the cornerstone, rather than looking desperate in the Spring chasing Ekey or Starks, or god forbid, Zdor's and 2ppg Liberty transfers.
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Fifth year transfers and very late Spring/Summer recruiting should be very opportunistic additions rather than necessities. We have gone many years now (Groce and now Underwood) looking for desperate additions in late Spring to fill positions of need. It is an indication that recruiting has not worked.
Oh I agree completely. I just really liked Ekey.
We should be improved at 1-3 next year, and from good sources I trust, look for Feliz to surprise. There is no doubt that the Illini will be improved at 1-3. So doing better (when we won 4 B1G games last year) is not a big hurdle to clear, yet not a given. The big problem is the frontcourt, with the departures of Black, Finke, and Ebo, where we were thin even last year (before the departures).
To be much better, and challenge for post season, Kane has to be back in August, play major minutes without fouling/rest, and emerge as a major major surprise. But right now, without any other additions, there is no way that any analyst will pick the Illini for post-season appearance.
I agree Golffan. We are the most talented at the guard positions and by playing 4 of them at a time with Kane or Giorgi we will likely have our best talent on the floor most of the time. I also believe that Kane and Giorgi will learn quickly because they will get so many minutes instead of having to sit behind and upperclassman. We will no doubt have to go small ball some but a change in pace might be a good thing in small stretches. I know only having 2 freshman bigs isn’t ideal but as long as Kane makes it back I still think this is a very interesting team that could surprise people. We should be better defensively because all the guards now have the physical ability to play it. That means getting beat off the dribble less, tougher feeds to the post, our post defenders not having to rotate as much to help guards who got blown by, and less backdoor alley oops when the help defender turned his head or was helping close a gap.
The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
The inability of some on this board to track nuance in posts is kind of impressive.
Pointing out some of the obvious issues that might bite us in the butt this season and in the future doesn't preclude someone from being a "TRUE fan." Seriously, nobody reading this board in June, let alone posting, isn't a pretty darn die-hard fan. And those of us voicing concerns, myself included, desperately want to be wrong and for us to be successful. We'll see. I-L-L
Pointing out some of the obvious issues that might bite us in the butt this season and in the future doesn't preclude someone from being a "TRUE fan." Seriously, nobody reading this board in June, let alone posting, isn't a pretty darn die-hard fan. And those of us voicing concerns, myself included, desperately want to be wrong and for us to be successful. We'll see. I-L-L
Athleticism, length and shooting looks like it has improved dramatically for the upcoming year, but reality is we have almost no size and you don't tend to win with underclassmen in the Big 10 unless they are pro level talent. We could definitely upset some people at home and I don't think winning more games than last year is out of the question, but making the tournament and finishing in top half of the Big 10 are probably long shots at this point. If we can improve in the front court with the upcoming recruiting class and players develop we could really have something in 19-20.
I think we'll be alright next year. Not getting to the Final 4 alright, but on the bubble alright and continuing to trend upwards. We are longer, bouncier, and supposedly better shooters. Last year BU was really forced to give minutes to guys who either couldn't shoot (so that changed the geometry of how other teams defended us) or were terrible defenders. We'll give up some bulk on the interior but the fact that our wing isn't losing his man on a backdoor cut 4 possessions a game and that we are longer to cut down passing lanes out of the post should we choose to double team I believe will give UI a better defensive product overall. Will there be times when some experienced Big 10 center backs Georgi down (or even Kane) and just shoots over him? Sure...but I still see a better defensive product due to the length overall.
Offensively, I can't imagine how we could be any worse. Black surprised me with his outside shooting, but he was the biggest Black Hole since Shaun Pruitt. Finke has been beaten down by the fanbase since he signed. I'm sure going to his Dad's alma matter wasn't the fairy tale he hoped it would be, and it didn't surprise me when he left but his offensive contributions didn't make up for his defensive lapses (and were wildly inconsistent). If Alstork missed his first shot, you might as well play offense/defense with him the entire game, etc etc on Smith and TJL.
Anyway....in my amateur analysis....offense better, defense better has to = a better team, doesn't it?
Offensively, I can't imagine how we could be any worse. Black surprised me with his outside shooting, but he was the biggest Black Hole since Shaun Pruitt. Finke has been beaten down by the fanbase since he signed. I'm sure going to his Dad's alma matter wasn't the fairy tale he hoped it would be, and it didn't surprise me when he left but his offensive contributions didn't make up for his defensive lapses (and were wildly inconsistent). If Alstork missed his first shot, you might as well play offense/defense with him the entire game, etc etc on Smith and TJL.
Anyway....in my amateur analysis....offense better, defense better has to = a better team, doesn't it?
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sbillini
- st petersburg, fl
We're turning on each other Lord of the Flies style. Not surprising, but I do find it amusing
I try to look bigger picture. And, when I think of basic questions, I have a hard time being confident that we'll be a materially better team that'll challenge for a post-season. Sorry, as much as I want to, I can't. And I think you need to drink some seriously spiked orange koolaid to do so. Some basic questions:
1. Is our raw roster talent going to be better next year vs. last? Unsure, but I'd bet not. Outside of TF, we have no proven high level talent returning next year. DMW and KN might step up. So might AJ. But that's yet to be seen. Feel free to bet on that, but one needs to understand that's what you're betting on and that's not what you'll necessarily see and have to discount it accordingly. And all the other talent we have is completely untested unproven. Most have never played a college game - I don't know how you can say with any sort of certainty that they'll be better than what we lose (discussed more below)
2. Where will our strengths/weaknesses lie, and how does that change vs last year? I'd say our weaknesses (inside, esp on D) get worse. Our strength (wings/guards) may or may not get better. We may get raw talent (again, it's a "may" and not definitive being they're ALL new to the team outside of TF and maybe BMW/KN). But, again, this is a larger unknown than even last year. Saying with confidence that Ayo will be better than Mark Smith last year is a lot more uncertain than many on these boards are assuming, IMO. Yea yea, style of play, playing basketball longer, yadda yadda yadda, rationalize away. But those are still so variable case by case, that there's nothing, IMO to make me say with any sort of certainty that'll be the case.
3. Can our coaching "coach em up" and make them play above their talent? Maybe. Last year I'd say it wasn't the case. I think they played largely at their talent level. You could argue the SFA days maybe he did. OSU potentially, though he had a bunch of talent. I think this is a toss-up. But after last year, I'm less convinced BU will be able to get them to play significantly better than their talent level quickly. I think he's a "system" guy and that system is not easy to play/learn. Losing as much experience in that system as we did, I think it'll be harder for it to really click next year.
4. People don't talk about this enough (undertandably) - how will ILL's competitors fare? Sports is usually a relative game. You don't have to be "good", just better than your competition. There's a distinction. Here I can't say with confidence one way or another. I think at the margin the conference will be a bit weaker (MSU losing experience, Michigan too). But OSU, Indiana, potentially Neb may be better. Again, no real confidence either way.
So overall, I think we may be a bit better next year IF 1) our talent plays out how we hope or 2) coaching is able to get them to play better than their talent is or 3) the rest of the conference is weaker. If we get all 3 to some degree then we have a shot at the postseason. If we get homeruns on 1 of the three, then maybe we do then too. But I have no real confidence that any of those three will be meaningfully outstanding.
So, then I go to what I'd like to see. We NEED to show improvement. Even if it's not postseason, we need to outperform expectations. That means showing at least a bit of 1) and 2). If we can do that, then we can build for future years. But that's a multi-year plan. I think we can do that, but it'll be slow and probably still painful.
On a loosely related note...I got a little sad when I saw that Ekey buzzer beater video and immediately thought "those were the good ole days." That's how we've fallen. That was a 20 win season. WITH Starks, Cosby, and Ekey and (lack of) Paul. 20 wins! Remember what that was like?? I'm longing for those days??? :tsk:
Joel Goodson
- ties will be resolved
Spot on. This season is largely riding on Kane. Here's hoping he rises up. Baby Hakeem (no pressure), anyone?
I think our non-conf. record is going to be pretty bad....not going to be many W's in Maui....may be a struggle to finish that part of the schedule above 500....would have to win 10-12 B10 games to even be in the discussion for ncaa invite...IMO
JFGsCoffeeMug
BU:1 Trash cans:0
- Chicago
This is where I am right now. It's one thing to feel like we'll be better this year; it's an entirely different matter to actually finish with a better record. Compared to last year, our non-con schedule is pretty brutal this year. We could be better and still end up with a worse record.
Joel Goodson
- ties will be resolved
If we have no rim protector, save Kane, good teams (and mediocre ones) will dine on us. So, yeah, I stand by my earlier comment.
Echoing Obelix, I think we'll be better across the board, but we need that rim protector.
AEX
- Danger Zone
Great post. I think the talent has improved overall, but it's going to be very raw and inexperienced talent this year. Realistically, it's going to be a year or two before most of these guys get their footing. Ayo is the only likely exception, but still not a given. Guys outside the RSCI 100 simply do not have a strong track record their first year in college (regardless of their performance later in their careers). It would be nice to have more known quantities returning.
As for the above, would it be more fair to say that staff had inconsistent results in their development of talent. Black and Ebo definitely outperformed expectations coming in. I know I'll get hounded for my appreciation of Ebo, but many seem to have forgotten that he had been playing organized ball for a short period of time (a couple years, maybe). The staff did an amazing job developing a freshman big with little prior experience, getting him to play within himself, and putting him in situations to excel. Trent was amazing last year, and while that wasn't a total shock, he did still outperform his ranking. Jordan also showed improvement, and was our best player in a stretch of games early in the season. I'm really hoping he'll bring that level of play more consistently this year. I don't think I've ever been more eager to see a player in their final year and see what they can accomplish.
The flip side, though, is equally significant: Finke, Smith, Alstork. All those guys performed below expectations. Now, whether that's on them, the staff, or unrealistic expectations, whose to say? And given the lack of success last year, a lot of us fans tend to focus on the underperformers than the outperformers (excuse my made up words). Still, we shouldn't disregard that the coaching staff did have a few notable success stories last year in terms of developing talent. I really hope whatever magic they worked with Ebo and Black can be replicated with Kane and Bez (which will be more difficult without Kane this summer and without experienced bigs to practice against).
So much depends upon a green front court, thinned by departures, muddled with transcript issues.
Why?
We spent years complaining we were playing 4 on 5 because our PG wouldn't shoot. Right now we have 3 likely options at 5 & none of them an unbiased observer would be betting on for success. Kane is by far the most likely to be a passable option. Remember a few years ago when Thorne/Black got hurt & we were stuck with only RS Freshman Finke/Morgan, we could well end up wishing we were that good at 5 next year.
AEX
- Danger Zone
Something something weakest link.
Getting a guy like Okoro would've probably given us the chance to win 3/4/5 other games coming up.
Getting a guy who averaged less than 5/5 on a mid/low major will maybe give us a chance at another win.
The season isn't riding on getting some mediocre 5th year. The season was riding on getting more skilled players in here. That ship sailed. Our problems are much larger than just lacking guys 6'10" and taller--experience and ability to play to the system are equally detrimental to this upcoming years team. We were a pretty awful shooting team last year, that will need to improve. We were bad in set defense last year, that will also need to improve. Of course, having a 7 footer who can shoot 60+% and is a lockdown defender would immediately fix a lot of issues, but it isn't needed nor is someone like that available and really hasn't been for over a year now.
Getting a guy who averaged less than 5/5 on a mid/low major will maybe give us a chance at another win.
The season isn't riding on getting some mediocre 5th year. The season was riding on getting more skilled players in here. That ship sailed. Our problems are much larger than just lacking guys 6'10" and taller--experience and ability to play to the system are equally detrimental to this upcoming years team. We were a pretty awful shooting team last year, that will need to improve. We were bad in set defense last year, that will also need to improve. Of course, having a 7 footer who can shoot 60+% and is a lockdown defender would immediately fix a lot of issues, but it isn't needed nor is someone like that available and really hasn't been for over a year now.
Or Giorgi. Or some other big yet to be named. Or some combination of all of the above.
If we can just find a way to get to a D+/C- at the 5 position, we can have a chance in games against real teams.
If not, get ready to watch Nick Ward drop 50 on us.
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