Illini Basketball 2019-2020

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#126      
JFGsCoffeeMug
NET Rankings (thru 1/15/20):

10 MSU
17 OSU
18 MD
22 Rutgers
25 Wisc
27 Michigan
30 Iowa
32 Purdue
37 Illinois
40 Minny
41 PSU
47 Indiana
139 NU
161 Nebby
 
#127      
ILLHangOut
JFGsCoffeeMug said:
NET Rankings (thru 1/15/20):

10 MSU
17 OSU
18 MD
22 Rutgers
25 Wisc
27 Michigan
30 Iowa
32 Purdue
37 Illinois
40 Minny
41 PSU
47 Indiana
139 NU
161 Nebby
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Generally, top 40 teams feel decent about tourney chances depending on some surprise conference tournament winners. Crazy that if the season ended today 11 of the 14 B10 teams would be feeling pretty good about their chances at a bid. Indiana would at least be in the discussion as well.
 
#128      
Truffaut
JFGsCoffeeMug said:
NET Rankings (thru 1/15/20):

10 MSU
17 OSU
18 MD
22 Rutgers
25 Wisc
27 Michigan
30 Iowa
32 Purdue
37 Illinois
40 Minny
41 PSU
47 Indiana
139 NU
161 Nebby
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Curious that every B1G team we've defeated this year is ahead of us in the NET ranking. I realize that NET is emphatically not about head to head match-ups, but it is still curious.
 
#130      
NotThatPierre
jmilt7 said:
This doesn't exactly belong here but I don't know where else to put it. Former Illini DJ Williams enrolls at DePaul. Eligible immediately. I don't quite understand so you can read it for yourself

George Washington transfer DJ Williams enrolls at DePaul
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I looked at this a couple months ago and noticed he didn't have a landing spot.

Good luck. DePaul could use a shot in the arm, although they can lose every game as far as I care. (unless they're playing the usual suspects.)
 
#133      
bombayIllini
JFGsCoffeeMug said:
NET Rankings (thru 1/15/20):

10 MSU
17 OSU
18 MD
22 Rutgers
25 Wisc
27 Michigan
30 Iowa
32 Purdue
37 Illinois
40 Minny
41 PSU
47 Indiana
139 NU
161 Nebby
Click to expand...

Is there a NET ranking just for B10 games?

If it is not there, then I bet that the sequence will not be the same. IL would be top 2, worst top 3.

IL has morphed for the B10 sequence. Not even close.



However, the rankings you posted will hold for the Dance.

I would not use it for the B10 games here on out. I doubt they have held for the past few B10 games.
 
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#134      
bombayIllini
I am in the process of completing a simple stat-based exercise. Gathered averages (only for team IL will face here on out):

Home: points scored :: points allowed by opposing team per game
Away: points scored :: points allowed by opposing team per game

And, compare the numbers between the two teams (HM vs. AW).

The only team that scares me is Iowa.

Based on the latest numbers no other team - anywhere in the B10 - scares me --------- IF (BIG IF) IL plays D the way they have played so far.

I hope to post the results on Monday/Tuesday and then we can - together - compare the results.
 
#135      
illinitiger
OrangeNTude said:
Speaking of playing games earlier, that is an interesting factor. When you play a team can have a significant affect on the outcome.

Think we got fortunate with when we played Wisconsin and that we only play them once. Since then Micah Potter has emerged with a 24 point game including 4 treys vs. Penn State. If Wiscy had that up their sleeve when we played them I imagine it would have been a loss. Just glad Alan, Ayo, and Trent hit the big shots.
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Potter actually did heat up against us...just not 24 points.
 
#137      
bombayIllini
OrangeNTude said:
Speaking of playing games earlier, that is an interesting factor. When you play a team can have a significant affect on the outcome.

Think we got fortunate with when we played Wisconsin and that we only play them once. Since then Micah Potter has emerged with a 24 point game including 4 treys vs. Penn State. If Wiscy had that up their sleeve when we played them I imagine it would have been a loss. Just glad Alan, Ayo, and Trent hit the big shots.
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Our D is pretty good you know.

Hitting shots is pretty much secondary.
 
#140      
1stsgttb
Winning cures all. BU changed his philosophy on defense and we are seeing good results for that. I-L-L
 
#141      
Steelyunk
Look at the "streak" column. Wonder if anyone will get to 5 consecutive wins again this season. One COULD argue that the Illini COULD get five in a row at end of season: @Rutgers, @PSU, Neb, @NU, IN but I think it's unlikely. I'm guessing it's 11 wins and a 10 seed - but I'm hanging on to ticket from my $5 bet to win it all at 75/1.

1579274091789.png
 
#142      
ILL in IA
Steelyunk said:
Look at the "streak" column. Wonder if anyone will get to 5 consecutive wins again this season. One COULD argue that the Illini COULD get five in a row at end of season: @Rutgers, @PSU, Neb, @NU, IN but I think it's unlikely. I'm guessing it's 11 wins and a 10 seed - but I'm hanging on to ticket from my $5 bet to win it all at 75/1.

View attachment 5486
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After NW we also go on a stretch that every game is a toss-up. Make a hell of a run, or rack up 8 losses in a row. God this league is tough this year.
 
#144      
TxChief
Steelyunk said:
Look at the "streak" column. Wonder if anyone will get to 5 consecutive wins again this season. One COULD argue that the Illini COULD get five in a row at end of season: @Rutgers, @PSU, Neb, @NU, IN but I think it's unlikely. I'm guessing it's 11 wins and a 10 seed - but I'm hanging on to ticket from my $5 bet to win it all at 75/1.
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Would be more likely, we could have 5 in a row in the next 2 games, 3 are already in the bank.. Should get to 4 on Sat. Then just have to beat Purdue at Mackey.
 
#145      
ILLHangOut
Next week will really set the stage for the rest of the season. I sense a couple different perspectives on this site, and this week should help consolidate them, IMO. Some think the tourney is optimistic, all the way to some thinking we've turned a corner and project to be top 4 B10.

Last year for example, only 3 teams made the tourney with more than two Q3/4 losses combined:
Arizona State (4) - 23-11 overall record, 10 Road/Neutral wins with a winning record both on road and at neutral sites
Baylor (3) - NET 39 but nothing really stands out beyond that. Every team except 3 with NET 40 and better last year made the tourney (Clemson, Texas, NC State missed)
VCU (3) - 34 NET, #2 NC SOS

Only two teams had a single Q4 loss; ASU, and Baylor.

Losing to NW puts Illini in the position of being one of those last couple teams trying to explain the Q4 loss with the rest of the resume.

On the other hand, winning against NW, @Purdue, and @Michigan would likely put Illini as favorites with MSU to win B10 championship half way through the season.
 
#148      
Illwinsagain
ILLHangOut said:
Next week will really set the stage for the rest of the season. I sense a couple different perspectives on this site, and this week should help consolidate them, IMO. Some think the tourney is optimistic, all the way to some thinking we've turned a corner and project to be top 4 B10.

Last year for example, only 3 teams made the tourney with more than two Q3/4 losses combined:
Arizona State (4) - 23-11 overall record, 10 Road/Neutral wins with a winning record both on road and at neutral sites
Baylor (3) - NET 39 but nothing really stands out beyond that. Every team except 3 with NET 40 and better last year made the tourney (Clemson, Texas, NC State missed)
VCU (3) - 34 NET, #2 NC SOS

Only two teams had a single Q4 loss; ASU, and Baylor.

Losing to NW puts Illini in the position of being one of those last couple teams trying to explain the Q4 loss with the rest of the resume.

On the other hand, winning against NW, @Purdue, and @Michigan would likely put Illini as favorites with MSU to win B10 championship half way through the season.
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Not to pick on your post, but I have been noticing a lot of comparison to last year's Q3/Q4 losses. And really, what else can you compare against. However, my question, it appears that there have been a lot more major upsets this year. Even the blue bloods have lost at home to un-ranked (and not close to ranked) teams. If our worst losses are Miznoz (neutral) and Miami (home/ouch), shouldn't we be ok? I guess I wonder who have the other 30ish rated teams lost to?
 
#149      
Illwinsagain
Decided to answer my own question; 30 Creighton, no bad losses, best wins, Tx Tech & Marq (both rated behind them). 31 Purdue lost to Marq (35), UI (36) Tx (53), Nebby (167) there 1 big win, MSU, nothing else of note. 32 Texas Tech, lost at DePaul (63), but no wins of any note. 33 BYU, lost to Boise St (119) and Utah (68). Best win V Tech. Coincidentally, 34 V Tech, lost to BYU and Virginia on road (66), big win over MSU. 35 Marquette, lost to WI (25), Creighton (30), Providence at home (86), beat Nova (20) at home. 36 U of I, I think you know. 37 UNI, lost at Illinois State (207) on road, no major wins. 38 Kentucky, lost to Utah (68) and SC (112) on road and EVANSVILLE (245) at HOME (sorry, in case anyone forgot) :), but they did beat MSU, only major win. 39 Akron, no losses to teams rated below, no major wins.

Strange, MSU is the signature win for 3 of these teams. Hopefully, we can give them a fourth loss in this group.
 
#150      
ILLHangOut
That's a great point. Most of my perspective on this come from last year because I followed very closely, and I was one of the people who thought the Illini had a chance much later than most simply because the teams ahead of them in the rankings and on the bubble weren't very good themselves. I can appreciate that aspect.

Something to keep in mind is that Q3/4 losses don't really matter to teams in the top 30 besides seeding impact. Only 1 team EVER ranked in the top 30 has not made the tournament; 2006 Missouri State (also Texas Tech but they were under post-season ban). History indicates that if a team is in the top 30 they're safe, and off the bubble. By virtue of being ranked that high the summary of the season is enough to overcome those Q3/4 losses. Illini aren't there yet, and if they continue losing to teams like NW it becomes less likely they will get there considering a NW loss at home will probably drop them 10-15 spots to the mid 50s in NET.

Personally, I have it categorized like this for following and keeping tabs:
Safe, 100% teams make it: Top 30
Likely, 90-95% teams make it: Top 45
Bubble, 20-30% teams make it, Top 45 - 70

Regarding the bubble teams last year 7 teams made it ranked lower than 45 in NET, but 5 of those teams had an RPI better than 45. Only 2 teams had both an RPI and NET worse than 45.

So to address the great point you made I think as a team becomes higher ranked the less impact the Q3/4 losses have on making the tournament. So, as long as Illini stay in that bubble territory Q3/4 losses tend to be large influencing factor, it appears.
 
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