Not Making Madness... Grade F
Make Tournament But Lose First Game... D-Minus.
Win Only One Game... D
Sweet Sixteen... B
Elite Eight... A- Minus
Final Four... A
Beyond That... A-Plus.
Overview: Seeing growth with all the young talent and seeing the Vets maximize what they've got.
Seeing Coach smiling a lot and not looking so frustrated.
Watching the Players get hot on the floor and watching the Coach get less hot under the collar.
I think this is a pretty steep scale! Haha. While I would grow concerned if 1-2 more "early" losses occurred with Underwood teams before the Sweet Sixteen, the Tournament is a crapshoot. Our 2020-21 team was honestly playing at a National Championship level before the Loyola loss; rewind time and replay that game, and we just might win and cut down the nets instead of Baylor. We'll never know! So, my grading scale would depend a lot more on what we have done to
put ourselves in a position to make a run in March, even if it for some reason does not happen. Additionally, I will be pretty forgiving in simply recognizing the unfortunate reality of where we are right now mentally after the PSU and Mizzou losses ... I think I'd go:
A+: Big Ten/BTT banner in the regular season and a run past the Sweet Sixteen (Elite Eight+)
A: Big Ten/BTT banner in the regular season and a Sweet Sixteen
A-: We rebound to have a good Big Ten season (with no banner) but catch some breaks in March Madness and make the Sweet Sixteen
B+: We never regain our "top 25" status but we remain a dangerous team that sneaks into the Sweet Sixteen with a good draw (like 2022 Michigan)
B: We win the BTT and earn a top 4 seed but lose in the Second Round again
B-: We rebound to be a top 4 Big Ten team, likely ranked again, but lose in the First Round
C+: Make the Tournament easily due to the non-conference wins and being "okay" in the Big Ten but we're a paper tiger that loses early (First/Second Round)
C: Tread water and make the Tournament with a high seed (8+) but we're playing bad basketball by the end of the year and we lose early (First/Second Round)
C-: Scrap our way into the Tournament as a high seed and lose in the First Round
D: Miss the Tournament while on the Bubble
F: Not even come close to making the Tournament
As you can see, while I acknowledge that the Tournament is a crapshoot ... I am indeed prioritizing it over regular season success this season, given the past two March Madness results for this program. To get an A of any kind, we must be in the Sweet Sixteen AND have a "good" regular season, and we must make the Sweet Sixteen PERIOD to even get a B+. A "third place in the Big Ten but ranked #20 and earned a 4-seed!" season that ends in the Second Round? Meh. Even my B involves us hanging a banner for the BTT, but another Second Round loss effectively erases that.
There's always over-reactions on a fan forum, but I think objectively this team is in trouble, at least if you want to compete for the conference title and a good seed (top 4). And if you use the eye test, I think they're in bigger trouble than their record, which is pretty decent given the good SoS.
If the recent stretch of games doesn't alarm you, I don't know what to say. 15 point loss at home to PSU, and what should have been a bounce back turned into utter destruction at the hands of Mizzou. The problems don't look like minor fixable issues, either --lot of fundamentals look off to my eye on things like close-outs, inside help, and knowing where to be generally. The lack of close-outs against PSU was particularly bad given that should have been one of the top items on the scouting list. Every team has a bad game or two, but the depth of the problems is concerning.
Regardless, the team has a lot of talent and a good coach that's willing to adapt. Just need to figure it out.
The bolded is the most concerning. If we lost to a mediocre PSU team at home like we did in 2006 (the McBride buzzer beater that wasn't) and lost by 10 to a red-hot, much-improved Mizzou team that couldn't miss from three at Braggin' Rights to drop to 8-4 ... nobody would be THAT concerned on the surface, given our "resume on paper" to-date.
However, the WAY in which we lost to Penn State, fresh off beating #2 Texas on a neutral court, rightfully caused many to feel alarmed. Many more like me brushed it off as "just an off-day," and we moved on. I did not watch the Alabama A&M game, but it sounds like it was pretty underwhelming for a 21-point win, and we saw a lot of the same issues with lethargy and whatnot. I
attended the game vs. Mizzou, however, and holy smokes ... talk about a team getting punched directly in the mouth and lying down. The atmosphere before tip (with Mizzou actually filling up their side this year) was electric, and it was almost astonishing how quickly half the arena was silenced for most of the rest of the game. I'll give our fans a TON of credit, too - it might have been the Holiday Season booze acting up here, but we were READY to cheer our team toward a comeback! However, every time we showed a sign of life, we'd let Mizzou hit a wide open three or give up a dunk in the lane with no defender in sight; it was a COMPLETELY deflating loss.
So yeah, the way in which we have LOOKED the last three games seems to be what is concerning, and that is WAY more concerning than having a "bad record" but looking good ... because our "good resume" will be gone like dust in the wind if we don't turn things around quickly. Like I said above, the game at Northwestern REALLY is a must-win.