Illini Basketball 2022-2023

Welcome to the Illini Basketball & College Basketball 2022-2023 thread

Illini Basketball 2022-2023 (17-9, 8-7)

All times CT

Many people are (rightfully) pointing out RJ’s shooting struggles, but I think it is just as notable than TSJ is shooting only 25% from behind the arc in conference.

IlliniBrave75 said:

Click to expand...

We are very lucky to have Tim Anderson as an assistant coach and Deon Thomas as announcer and still so connected to program

The problem with taking so many 3's is although you could get hot and shoot 40+ percent in a game or two, eventually they will cease to fall like we have witnessed. If you are playing most any team in this conference outside of Wisky, Minny or Nebraska, you can very easily lose. Especially if they are on. I would like to see our guys take it to the rack more often. We have the size and skill to do it.

Why doesn’t BU play Sincere and Ty more? They were a lifeless mass losing to a limited Nebraska until he did. I know they are limited offensively, but standing around watching Mayer go 1 on 3 will not end well in March.

Regarding the discussion on threes, I thought it was interesting that the top two three-point shooting teams in conference games (Indiana and Ohio State) are also the bottom two in three point attempts per shot.

Was curious to do a bit more digging - is there any correlation between how often you shoot threes, and how effective they are?

In this plot, the vertical axis is the % of a team's field goal attempts that are threes, and the horizontal is the difference in points per shot for threes versus twos. Teams to the right of 0 generate more points on an "average" three than an average two, and vice-versa for teams to the left. If these were totally independent, every team left of 0 would want to shoot no threes, and every team right of 0 would want to shoot only threes.


There does seem to be some correlation - in general, the more efficient a team is from three relative to from two, the fewer threes they shoot.

Bacon Butkus Swanson said:

Why doesn’t BU play Sincere and Ty more? They were a lifeless mass losing to a limited Nebraska until he did. I know they are limited offensively, but standing around watching Mayer go 1 on 3 will not end well in March.

Click to expand...

Sincere hadn't played well in the previous two games. His obvious strength is on-ball defense, but he's been committing too many fouls of late, which is why he isn't starting anymore. He and Ty both struggled the past few games.
BU is playing the hot hand. We hadn't looked that listless in the past several weeks. He needed a spark last night, and those guys brought it. Hopefully, they are earning the opportunity to get their number called more often. Ty has struggled to score, even when he has had good looks inside. It appears things are finally slowing down for him a bit. We know they aren't sharpshooters, but when they attack the basket, and keep the ball moving, they can be a plus on offense. This won't be the last time we will need them to step up.

IlliniBrave75 said:

Click to expand...

This was very informative and eye opening.

When I looked at the first post in this thread and perused the schedule results so far , the lack of a close game finish is
puzzling , whether we win or lose........

The last 8 games has us winning 7 games and all 8 games have a result with the closest score being 9 points , won by the Illini and the 18 point loss to the loosiers.......

Win big or lose big has been the mantra for this years squad.......the closest game we have had year to date was the 5 point loss @ twerpville..........

What does this mean ??............................I don't have a clue , just struck me as fascinating with the lack of close game results.......

So much emphasis have been directed at the # of 3's and 3 point efficiency by the Illini............I think more emphasis should be directed at the Illini's ability to take over games in the last 10 minutes for double digit wins .......We were down 50-48 and ended up winning 72-56.......That's a total domination of nebby by the Illini with a 24-6 closeout to win going away.......

My final thoughts are to not get down on the Illini regardless of what the game has shown so far as related to 3's shot and 3's made as the Illini have such a smothering D that can change the direction of the game , especially in the latter stages of that said game....

speaks more to me that we have a very well conditioned team , thanks to Fletch , with a solid 8 man rotation that wears down our opponents and seems that we get stronger as the game goes deeper towards the end of regulation.....

we have had only one overtime game against texas and won by 7 points........

I am going to emphasize the talent and skills of the Illini more and stop worrying aboot the 3 point shots attempted and made..................Our defense is a weapon that has been unleashed with devastating results upon the unsuspecting opponents and leaves them with a dazed and confused look on their face as we get stronger and the opponents tongues are dragging the floor.....

JMHO

Birdus said:

The problem with taking so many 3's is although you could get hot and shoot 40+ percent in a game or two, eventually they will cease to fall like we have witnessed. If you are playing most any team in this conference outside of Wisky, Minny or Nebraska, you can very easily lose. Especially if they are on. I would like to see our guys take it to the rack more often. We have the size and skill to do it.

Click to expand...

Basketball has become a game of Threes. It’s nearly impossible to win in today’s game without taking and hitting a decent percentage from Three Land.

Of course, when the chance is there to take it to the rim you need to do that since that is always better than missing from Three. But in College Ball and the Pros... the Three has become as fundamental to the game as the pass-happy offenses became in Football. Nobody wins any more just running the ball or dinking the ball off laterally to a running back. You have to stretch the field and throw the ball to win. What separates the ‘Elite’ teams from the dregs are the Flamethrowers and the Speedy Wides. Distance guys.

So it is with roundball. If your opponent is not playing all that well you can get away with your own poor shooting from Three and slog out a win. But that won’t work against a good team and certainly not an opponent that is draining the ball from distance.

In the case of the Illini... this is not a team that shown it can thrive on mid-range shots or even taking the ball to the rim. A couple guys have this in their game. But this is just not a strength of this team.

Like most teams today, the Illini will thrive or fail on their strength of their Three Game. And since some of the Illini are struggling from distance... if they can ever get their shot straightened out The Orange will be a dangerous team in Dance Time.

If they can’t... then it will be a short dance again.

With the NCAA tournament being next month (), I thought it would be interesting to see if there are any recent Final Four teams who have a profile similar to ours.

I think 2014 UConn is the template.

Illinois Kenpom as of 2/1:
Rank: 22
AdjEM: 18.65
AdjO rank: 57
AdjD rank: 14

2014 UConn Kenpom at end of season:
Rank: 15
AdjEM: 22.13
AdjO rank: 39
AdjD rank: 10

This type of profile is certainly attainable. UConn finished the regular season in a three way tie for 2nd place in the AAC and entered the tournament as a somewhat unheralded 7 seed before going on to win it all.

Some other Final Four teams that had an AdjD between 5-20 and AdjO outside the top 30:

2016 Syracuse, 10 seed (27/18.57/50/18)
2018 Loyola, 11 seed (31/16.39/63/17)

So, dream on friends. EVERYTHING is still on the table this year.

To add to the 3’s discussion, I do think continuing to shoot them is a calculated risk by Brad. RJ, CoHawk, TJ, Epps and Mayer have all shown the ability to be 35% or better 3pt shooters. Even if we are a poor shooting team this year if we get “hot” and even turn into a league average 3 pt team over a 2-3 week span we will be incredibly tough to beat. Even if we shoot 30% last night we win by 30.

The flip side is if we abandon the 3 we probably run into a team that will pack it in like Nebraska did last night only they will be a better team and we are probably screwed anyway. So, within reason (ie fewer step back chucks early in the clock), may as well let ‘‘em fly.

Revisiting our 3 point shooting the last several games:
PSU: 7/23 (30.4%)
AL A&M: 7/27 (25.9%)
Mizzou: 7/31 (22.6%)
B-C: 8/28 (28.6%)
NW: 8/28 (28.6)
WI: 10/19 (52.6%)
Neb: 8/29 (27.6%)
MSU: 6/18 (33.3%)
Minn: 5/16 (31.3%)
IND: 8/19 (39.1%)
WI: 6/20 (30%)
Neb: 5/29 (17.2%)
Total: 85/287 (29.6%)
Avg: 7.1/23.9

Bacon Butkus Swanson said:

Why doesn’t BU play Sincere and Ty more? They were a lifeless mass losing to a limited Nebraska until he did. I know they are limited offensively, but standing around watching Mayer go 1 on 3 will not end well in March.

Click to expand...

More games like last night and they will play more. Bluntly though, Ty has only been able to show effectiveness on offense against bottom feeders (Minnesota, Nebraska). 30 % on free throws is also going to make it hard to play you. I think Harris needs to be more consistent, his performances are very uneven. For every good game or two he has, he has three where he's a bit of a disaster. It's hard to have all three of Rodgers, Harris and Dainja on the floor as that's basically no shooting out of three spots, even having two on the court makes the Illini a lot easier to defend, imo.

Both have played a good amount though and I think they're both finding themselves a bit more. They're both justifying bigger roles and eating into Melendez's playing time a bit. I think it's clear our five best players are the five that are starting but amongst the next three and how much they play, there is still fluidity as we round the end of the season. I really think the free throw shooting is the biggest issue for each of them. They are a combined 9-35 from the line this season. If you have a Backup that you don't care about fouling out, you may as well grab either of them any time it's a one and one situation the instant they touch the ball right now.

This is a good spot light on CH.

BMoreIllini said:

Revisiting our 3 point shooting the last several games:
PSU: 7/23 (30.4%)
AL A&M: 7/27 (25.9%)
Mizzou: 7/31 (22.6%)
B-C: 8/28 (28.6%)
NW: 8/28 (28.6)
WI: 10/19 (52.6%)
Neb: 8/29 (27.6%)
MSU: 6/18 (33.3%)
Minn: 5/16 (31.3%)
IND: 8/19 (39.1%)
WI: 6/20 (30%)
Neb: 5/29 (17.2%)
Total: 85/287 (29.6%)
Avg: 7.1/23.9

Click to expand...

Only 1 game above 40% and that's because a douche nozzle on Wisconsin talked smack to Matthew.... Yikes

RockfordIllini said:

To add to the 3’s discussion, I do think continuing to shoot them is a calculated risk by Brad. RJ, CoHawk, TJ, Epps and Mayer have all shown the ability to be 35% or better 3pt shooters. Even if we are a poor shooting team this year if we get “hot” and even turn into a league average 3 pt team over a 2-3 week span we will be incredibly tough to beat. Even if we shoot 30% last night we win by 30.

The flip side is if we abandon the 3 we probably run into a team that will pack it in like Nebraska did last night only they will be a better team and we are probably screwed anyway. So, within reason (ie fewer step back chucks early in the clock), may as well let ‘‘em fly.

Click to expand...

I think this is important. We have to keep shooting to a certain extent. Because what people don't realize is that even missed 3s accomplish a couple things.. spacing and offensive rebound chances.

We get some of our open 2s because teams know we are so willing to let it fly from 3 and have to guard that.

And the long rebounds allow our athletes more chances at O rebounds.

I will still agree that there are 5 ish per game I could do without but I don't think only shooting 10 per game is the answer either

Of course, but there's just no reason we should be attempting 25.6 per game, when we can keep the defense honest with less than 20 attempts per game. Our KenPom adjusted offense rating is 57th, which is the lowest it's been since Underwood turned the program around in 2019-20.

It's not an all or nothing thing, you want to shoot the wide open ones where you have time to set your feet and get into a nice rhythm shot without having to rush it with a defender coming over. And you'll always have your end of shot clock scenarios where a mediocre-ish attempt at three is the best you'll be able to muster. So of course Underwood is never going to explicitly say "don't ever shoot a three" or bench players for doing so, they have to be able to make those kind of judgements themselves from the flow of the possession.

Right now though, the scale is just way too tilted on the side of shooting too many threes, and it's really hampering our offensive efficiency. Hampered offensive efficiency means a limited ceiling against better teams (of course on an individual game we can still win if lightning catches in a bottle on a given night like against UCLA on a neutral floor when Shannon couldn't miss, and against Texas on a neutral floor when Mayer couldn't miss).

I just hope this team is recognizing its issues (it's a tough situation, Underwood is already kind of a hardass coach, and if you are just screaming at the team about how much they suck when they're winning, you lose their trust, so you don't want to go too far in that direction, all goes into the psychology of being a coach which Underwood is going to understand better than I am) and attempting to correct them and it won't take getting smacked around by Iowa or god forbid dropping an inexplicable one to Minnesota (not that I expect that to happen, but I take nothing for granted) to see the issues right now.

Rather than be a team hoping for a miracle sun run in March Madness, I know we all just want to see the team play to its maximum ability to put itself in the best possible position for success. We're all, of course, on the same side there. This isn't a team with bad players that just needs to accept that they're a bad three point shooting team but shoot them anyways in the hopes of having a good day (like, for instance, Nebraska), I think they have the abilities to play at a better level of offensive efficiency if they just play more to their strengths and less to "what will make me look better to NBA scouts if they can see what I can do"

BMoreIllini said:

Revisiting our 3 point shooting the last several games:
PSU: 7/23 (30.4%)
AL A&M: 7/27 (25.9%)
Mizzou: 7/31 (22.6%)
B-C: 8/28 (28.6%)
NW: 8/28 (28.6)
WI: 10/19 (52.6%)
Neb: 8/29 (27.6%)
MSU: 6/18 (33.3%)
Minn: 5/16 (31.3%)
IND: 8/19 (39.1%)
WI: 6/20 (30%)
Neb: 5/29 (17.2%)
Total: 85/287 (29.6%)
Avg: 7.1/23.9

Click to expand...

Interesting to note the 29 three attempts in both games against Nebraska.

That was par for the course until the Northwestern loss, but since then those are outliers.

There must be something about Nebraska's defensive scheme that encourages this, because they are allowing the highest percentage of 3-point attempts in the conference.

SoILIllini said:

We have to keep shooting to a certain extent. Because what people don't realize is that even missed 3s accomplish a couple things.. spacing and offensive rebound chances.

Click to expand...

The old wisdom goes that you ‘Have to keep shooting’ to shoot your way out of a slump.

As for the Three Ball... this is correct but only to a point. This assumes you are a ‘good’ shooter at your natural innate play level... and that you can in fact find your stroke after a while.

But those things are assumptions. Maybe your natural Three level isn’t actually that great after all. Maybe with practice you still can’t discover your secret sauce to find your shot again (if you had one). Look how so many guys can’t seem to improve on making FREE THROWS. If you can’t hit from that distance while unguarded then, well...

The World is make of three kinds of long-range Shooters. Shooters that are great at long distance because they have the right kind ball release and footing preparation to find the right launch angles and spin consistently. Shooters that need to pray the ball in much or most of the time. And shooters who couldn’t throw it in the hoop from distance if they spent all night in the gym. And the next.

We know it’s possible to improve from Three because there are guys who have done it. But they in the minority in terms of the total number of players.

The way to ‘shoot yourself out of a slump’ is to be more relaxed and flowing with your release and less tense about missing. To think not of your last five shots that you missed but when you were in The Zone one night and shooting the lights out. In short, stop thinking so much and let your natural grace come through.
And yes... practice. And more practice. With defenders and without.

As for the Illini... this current group has guys who can hit from Three but not with any kind of reliable consistency. Can be Red Hot one night and then cold as ice the next.

With 9 games left, most likely it will be 4-5 for beloved Illini for a 20-11 season
with wins at home over Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan and a win at Penn State.
Predicting losses against at Iowa, Rutgers (at home), at Indiana, at Ohio State and at Purdue.

msphdillini said:

With 9 games left, most likely it will be 4-5 for beloved Illini for a 20-11 season
with wins at home over Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan and a win at Penn State.
Predicting losses against at Iowa, Rutgers (at home), at Indiana, at Ohio State and at Purdue.

Click to expand...

8-1 at worst. Our defense is ridiculous. We have enough guys on offense, I swear some of you are not watching the same games I am. We’re a very very very good basketball team. Book it.

Based on ESPN BPI - Illinois is 23rd in BPI, it's not identical but it tracks *mostly* closely with KenPom at this point in the season.

38.1 % to win @ Iowa
95.7 % to win vs. Minnesota
60.6 % to win vs. Rutgers
47.6 % to win @ Penn State
31.2 % to win @ Indiana
75.6 % to win vs. Northwestern
31.6 % to win @ Ohio State (analytics still really like the Buckeyes despite their 11-10 record)
86.2 % to win vs. Michigan
22.9 % to win @ Purdue

Based on a Favored-Not Favored (per BPI) metrics, we'd be expected to be 4-5, using weighted probability (i.e., @ Penn State is a "tossup", vs. Minnesota is a monster favorite), so give .381 win for Iowa, .957 win for Minnesota, .606 wins for Rutgers, etc. etc. etc. we'd be expected to be 4.896 - 4.104, which is closer to expecting us to go 5-4.

Per my note on BPI earlier, BPI likes Indiana and Ohio State a lot more than KenPom. BPI has Indiana at 16 and Ohio State at 19, whereas KenPom has Indiana at 21 and Ohio State at 26, and Illinois is a steady 23 in BPI and 22 in KenPom, so I think KenPom would say those two road games will be a bit closer in terms of probability. Rutgers also has a lot of BPI love, 12th in BPI and 17th in KenPom, so KenPom would probably have us a bigger home favorite in that one.