Torvik has us as the 3rd highest rated team in the B1G behind Purdue and MSU (#1 and #7 overall) and just ahead of Indiana, Wisconsin, and Northwestern. So I would say you're both right. We should challenge for top 3 but we're also not clearly a tier above teams projected 4 - 6.
I have literally no idea what to expect because I've never seen half our players play basketball before.
*Torvik has some weirdness in his projections like Dain, Luke, and Ty being 6th, 7th, and 8th in minutes. Just used it because it's probably the best real time ranking available right now.