Illini Basketball 2023-2024

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#1      

Dan

Admin
Welcome to the Illini Basketball & College Basketball thread :illinois:


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2023-2024 Illini Basketball (14-4, 5-2)

DateOpponentResult
Mon, Nov 6Eastern IllinoisW 80-52
Fri, Nov 10OaklandW 64-53
Tue, Nov 14MarquetteL 64-71
Fri, Nov 17ValparaisoW 87-64
Sun, Nov 19SouthernW 88-60
Fri, Nov 24Western IllinoisW 84-52
Sat, Dec 2at RutgersW 76-58
Tue, Dec 5Florida AtlanticW 98-89
Sat, Dec 9at TennesseeL 79-86
Sun, Dec 17ColgateW 74-57
Fri, Dec 22MissouriW 97-73
Fri, Dec 29Fairleigh DickinsonW 104-71
Tue, Jan 2NorthwesternW 96-66
Fri, Jan 5at PurdueL 83-78
Thu, Jan 11Michigan StateW 71-68
Sun, Jan 14MarylandL 67-76
Thu, Jan 18at MichiganW 88-73
Sun, Jan 21RutgersW 86-63
Wed, Jan 24at Northwestern8:00pm BTN
Sat, Jan 27Indiana2:00pm FOX
Tue, Jan 30at Ohio State6:00pm Peacock
Sun, Feb 4Nebraska5:30pm BTN
Sat, Feb 10at Michigan State1:00pm CBS
Tue, Feb 13Michigan6:00pm Peacock
Sat, Feb 17at Maryland4:30pm FOX
Wed, Feb 21at Penn State5:30pm BTN
Sat, Feb 24Iowa1:15pm BTN
Wed, Feb 28Minnesota8:00pm BTN
Sat, Mar 2at Wisconsin12:00pm BTN
Tue, Mar 5Purdue6:00pm Peacock
Sun, Mar 10at Iowa6:00pm FS1

All times CT
 
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#3      

pruman91

Paducah, Ky
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#4      

ILLINI76

Springfiled, IL.
FanDuel came out with new odds today for the BIG and making final four. We went from +1100 preseason to +2000 to finish 5th in BIg and we are not in the top 15 to make the final four but Michigan St is at +750
 
#6      

lstewart53x3

Scottsdale, Arizona
There’s obviously no timeline for TJs return and there’s no guarantee he ever does return. But I’ll put an imaginary timeline that says he returns after his January 18th court date. The next game up would be home against Rutgers on the 21st.

Until then we play:

Northwestern
@Purdue
Michigan St
Maryland
@Michigan

If we can escape this stretch with 2 losses (@Purdue and one slip up elsewhere), we’re likely still in the top 15 for TJs return with a chance to make a run in the final 2 months of the season.
 
#7      
This might sound silly, but this is absolutely enormous game. Let's, for poops and giggles, say that TSJ comes back in February. Again, just theoretically. For this first month, we have the keep our heads above water. Let's just be honest with ourselves. There are some games that even with TJ, it's a high likelihood that we're going to get beat with Purdue being #1 on that list. I think that MSU is reverting to what we thought they would be. While they're not at Purdue's level, they'd also be a challenge even with TJ.

What does that mean? We need to win the games again good teams, not elite ones, especially at home. I put NW on that list. They gave us a ton of problems last year. If we win this one, we'll feel a TON more confident. We need to beat the lines of Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, Minnesota and while Wisconsin and Ohio State are very, very good teams....have to beat them at home.
If we lose on Tuesday, the feeling of impending doom will be present and rightfully so.

If TJ does not come back, we're going to be judged on what we do, not on what we did. As we sit here right now, those solid wins, never happened. With TJ, they did. If we were without him starting in March, a selection committee couldn't make a true determination. We'd have, at minimum, 20 games without him. There'd be a huge body of work to judge us on. If we were 10-10 in conference, there's a good chance that we'd be out of the tournament at 20-12(possibly 20-13 if we lost our first BTT game).
HAVE to win this game and all of the similar ones.

That said:

Illinois. 74
NW 70

Can't let Buie go off on us again.
 
#8      
There’s obviously no timeline for TJs return and there’s no guarantee he ever does return. But I’ll put an imaginary timeline that says he returns after his January 18th court date. The next game up would be home against Rutgers on the 21st.

Until then we play:

Northwestern
@Purdue
Michigan St
Maryland
@Michigan

If we can escape this stretch with 2 losses (@Purdue and one slip up elsewhere), we’re likely still in the top 15 for TJs return with a chance to make a run in the final 2 months of the season.
"for TJ's return....."

I know that the commentary is trending positive, but simply can't assume we'll see him again. Until that's officially decided, we're without him.

Let's show what we're capable of!
 
#9      

lstewart53x3

Scottsdale, Arizona
"for TJ's return....."

I know that the commentary is trending positive, but simply can't assume we'll see him again. Until that's officially decided, we're without him.

Let's show what we're capable of!
Hence my qualifiers:

“There’s no timeline for TJs return. There’s no guarantee he ever does return. This is an imaginary example of what could happen if he does return”.
 
#11      

Goillinikobd

Southeastern US
This might sound silly, but this is absolutely enormous game. Let's, for poops and giggles, say that TSJ comes back in February. Again, just theoretically. For this first month, we have the keep our heads above water. Let's just be honest with ourselves. There are some games that even with TJ, it's a high likelihood that we're going to get beat with Purdue being #1 on that list. I think that MSU is reverting to what we thought they would be. While they're not at Purdue's level, they'd also be a challenge even with TJ.

What does that mean? We need to win the games again good teams, not elite ones, especially at home. I put NW on that list. They gave us a ton of problems last year. If we win this one, we'll feel a TON more confident. We need to beat the lines of Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, Minnesota and while Wisconsin and Ohio State are very, very good teams....have to beat them at home.
If we lose on Tuesday, the feeling of impending doom will be present and rightfully so.

If TJ does not come back, we're going to be judged on what we do, not on what we did. As we sit here right now, those solid wins, never happened. With TJ, they did. If we were without him starting in March, a selection committee couldn't make a true determination. We'd have, at minimum, 20 games without him. There'd be a huge body of work to judge us on. If we were 10-10 in conference, there's a good chance that we'd be out of the tournament at 20-12(possibly 20-13 if we lost our first BTT game).
HAVE to win this game and all of the similar ones.

That said:

Illinois. 74
NW 70

Can't let Buie go off on us again.
I can’t see TSJ coming back so what you see Tuesday is what you are going to see for 18 BIG games plus the BTT. We need to grind it out. No slow starts, no 6 minute scoreless streaks, no 20% 3 pt games, no 15 TO games. Actually I think DD is the wild card that may drag us to a 13 win BIG record before the BTT.
 
#12      
There’s obviously no timeline for TJs return and there’s no guarantee he ever does return. But I’ll put an imaginary timeline that says he returns after his January 18th court date. The next game up would be home against Rutgers on the 21st.

Until then we play:

Northwestern
@Purdue
Michigan St
Maryland
@Michigan

If we can escape this stretch with 2 losses (@Purdue and one slip up elsewhere), we’re likely still in the top 15 for TJs return with a chance to make a run in the final 2 months of the season.
Time will tell I guess, but the 18th is only the arraignment, right? If the DA were to not pursue the felony charge at the arraignment due to insufficient evidence (something that isn't all that likely for felonies from my understanding), I think that would probably clear some of the bigger hurdles for the panel to reinstate him. That said, the misdemeanor charge if the DA still were to pursue that, still seems like it could be problematic to me if the panel were to view that charge as something that would break the zero tolerance against sexual crimes policy. I know the insiders are fairly optimistic right now, but unless all charges were to be dropped, I would guess reinstatement would be a far more open-ended process.

As well, if none of the rumors are officially corroborated by the DA or by law enforcement and no case evidence is leaked, I just wouldn't think there'd be all that much for the panel to go on for reinstatement. And what I mean by that is that it'd still be a felony rape charge, something incredibly serious, and no matter how adamant TSJ might be that he never committed the crimes he's being charged with, I'm just not sure how willing an independent panel would be to take on the additional liability of clearing him. For example, what would happen if the panel were to give him the benefit of the doubt and reinstate him, and a week later, someone in Champaign were to come forward with a similar allegation? And please note, this is not saying anything about TSJ's character, or the probability of something like this, just that this is an example of something the panel would have to consider and overcome to reinstate him. I just think that even in a best case scenario where TSJ is completely innocent (i.e. the charge were to later be found completely fraudulent), it'd be very difficult to overcome a looming felony charge without significant significant evidence in his favor.

So for me at least, this is a lot more wait and see what ends up happening.
 
#13      
Time will tell I guess, but the 18th is only the arraignment, right? If the DA were to not pursue the felony charge at the arraignment due to insufficient evidence (something that isn't all that likely for felonies from my understanding), I think that would probably clear some of the bigger hurdles for the panel to reinstate him. That said, the misdemeanor charge if the DA still were to pursue that, still seems like it could be problematic to me if the panel were to view that charge as something that would break the zero tolerance against sexual crimes policy. I know the insiders are fairly optimistic right now, but unless all charges were to be dropped, I would guess reinstatement would be a far more open-ended process.

As well, if none of the rumors are officially corroborated by the DA or by law enforcement and no case evidence is leaked, I just wouldn't think there'd be all that much for the panel to go on for reinstatement. And what I mean by that is that it'd still be a felony rape charge, something incredibly serious, and no matter how adamant TSJ might be that he never committed the crimes he's being charged with, I'm just not sure how willing an independent panel would be to take on the additional liability of clearing him. For example, what would happen if the panel were to give him the benefit of the doubt and reinstate him, and a week later, someone in Champaign were to come forward with a similar allegation? And please note, this is not saying anything about TSJ's character, or the probability of something like this, just that this is an example of something the panel would have to consider and overcome to reinstate him. I just think that even in a best case scenario where TSJ is completely innocent (i.e. the charge were to later be found completely fraudulent), it'd be very difficult to overcome a looming felony charge without significant significant evidence in his favor.

So for me at least, this is a lot more wait and see what ends up happening.
The possible additional allegations is what has worried me most.
 
#14      
I can’t see TSJ coming back so what you see Tuesday is what you are going to see for 18 BIG games plus the BTT. We need to grind it out. No slow starts, no 6 minute scoreless streaks, no 20% 3 pt games, no 15 TO games. Actually I think DD is the wild card that may drag us to a 13 win BIG record before the BTT.
To prevent anyone from twisting my words I am first going to say that we are NOT better without TJ.

I kinda want to expand on your DD point though. I think every player is the wild card now.

With TJ, everyone knows who is taking the most shots, who is scoring the most points. The question was always who would be number 2 in a particular game, and that was usually answered based on matchups.

Now without TJ, we are not harder to guard, because we are less talented, but we are harder to predict. Will it be Domask, will it be Coleman, Quincy, Dain? Hell, will it be Ty bullying a normal sized pg? Will it be Luke or Harmon off the bench hitting 5 3s?

We have good flow and the ball moves. All 5 guys on the floor are a threat, even if not to the level of TJ. They must all be guarded. TJ’s nightmare trait was obviously his strength/athleticism combo. Coleman/Domask is their overall versatility. Ty, his absurd offensive rebounding. Quincy, solid all around offensive player, who can take what you give him. You can’t formulate a game plan around stopping just one guy now. Your team defense has to be solid because there’s enough weapons to hurt you, but you don’t know which one it will be that possession. To use a BU quote, “there’s tremendous value in that.”

The real question now, is who will have the ball in their hands at the end of a close game? Most teams switch everything in those moments, and not having a guy who can split seams created by switching in the blink of an eye, or easily blow by 1 on 1 pressure after a good switch, takes your late game ace out of your sleeve.
 
#15      
To prevent anyone from twisting my words I am first going to say that we are NOT better without TJ.

I kinda want to expand on your DD point though. I think every player is the wild card now.

With TJ, everyone knows who is taking the most shots, who is scoring the most points. The question was always who would be number 2 in a particular game, and that was usually answered based on matchups.

Now without TJ, we are not harder to guard, because we are less talented, but we are harder to predict. Will it be Domask, will it be Coleman, Quincy, Dain? Hell, will it be Ty bullying a normal sized pg? Will it be Luke or Harmon off the bench hitting 5 3s?

We have good flow and the ball moves. All 5 guys on the floor are a threat, even if not to the level of TJ. They must all be guarded. TJ’s nightmare trait was obviously his strength/athleticism combo. Coleman/Domask is their overall versatility. Ty, his absurd offensive rebounding. Quincy, solid all around offensive player, who can take what you give him. You can’t formulate a game plan around stopping just one guy now. Your team defense has to be solid because there’s enough weapons to hurt you, but you don’t know which one it will be that possession. To use a BU quote, “there’s tremendous value in that.”

The real question now, is who will have the ball in their hands at the end of a close game? Most teams switch everything in those moments, and not having a guy who can split seams created by switching in the blink of an eye, or easily blow by 1 on 1 pressure after a good switch, takes your late game ace out of your sleeve.

I would be pretty comfortable with Domask having the ball at the end of a close game.
 
#17      

ILLINI76

Springfiled, IL.
Andy Katz just dropped us to 6th in his BIG power rankings behind Northwestern.
 
#19      
It's a good time to look at the NET rankings now that preseason is over and the real conference schedule starts...

#3 Purdue
#12 Illinois
#17 Wisconsin
#29 Michigan St
#33 Ohio St
#63 Nebraska
#67 Iowa
#72 Northwestern
#79 Michigan
#86 Minnesota
#93 Rutgers
#100 Indiana
#108 Maryland
#115 Penn St

I'm cautiously optimistic we can stack some wins even if we don't have TSJ. On one hand, the way we play gives us a very high floor. We should be able to win a good amount of games by simply being consistent defensively, on the glass, and attacking the basket. On the other hand, I still wouldn't call many of the teams at the bottom "bad"...more like "inconsistent". Many of them remind me of our Illini during Ayo's freshman year. We lost a lot of games, but nobody really wanted to play us because we played tough. We should win these games on paper, but I'm still not looking forward to games @Maryland, @Iowa, @Mich, etc.

IMO A good way to make sure we are staying on track is to split the B1G into 2 tiers.

Tier 1 is Purdue, MSU, Wisconsin, tOSU. We have 6 games against these teams. Unfortunately, we kind of got screwed by scheduling and only get 2 of them at home (Purdue, MSU). With Purdue being so good, we are realistically looking at 2-4 as a goal against this tier. Anything better is gravy.

Tier 2 is everyone else. 8 home games, 6 away games. Sweep the home games and split the away games (we've already won 1 away game @Rutgers). 11-3 against this tier.

That puts us at 13-7 and 22-9 on the year, which would be a success without our all-american.
 
#21      
I would be pretty comfortable with Domask having the ball at the end of a close game.
I don’t know how you can say that since the FAU game he hasn’t hit the broad side of a barn!! In the Tennessee game he looked like a frightened deer caught in the headlights of an oncoming truck
 
#23      

theNewGuy

Dallas, TX
This whole TJ thing is very interesting on so many levels.
If he had gotten hurt and did not have an exact timeline for return, I think that we would be much less hopeful.

Regardless, I think this could be a great experience for our team. DGL, Harmon, and even Amani could get much more PT which imo can only help their development and might make them better, more confident players come march.
Purdue will be a real test, and if we can somehow win, it will be because everyone chipped in, including Goode lol.

TJ will have a chip on his shoulder if/when he comes back.

I am still very much excited for the rest of this season regardless of if TJ will play again. The vibes are good and this team plays better than the sum of its parts.
 
#24      
I would be pretty comfortable with Domask having the ball at the end of a close game.
The Domask we know exists because TJ was occupying the other teams best wing defender.

Can Domask be that same guy with the other teams best wing defender on him? I’m not sure how I feel about that. If an insider tells me he consistently cooks TJ, Ty and Guerrier in practice, I’d feel much better.
 
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