Illini Basketball 2023-2024

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#52      
He’s been overlooked, including by me.

That win in Wisconsin and the adversity the team dealt with, along with his usage of the transfers and emergence of Coleman puts him firmly in the run. The offense alone is incredible without the benefit of an Edey (or Cockburn), which is why he was overlooked in the past.

Gard, Collins, Pikiell, Hoiberg would have been strong candidates at different times in the season.

Painter is the only real contender, imo. But he started with higher expectations and has relied on Edey as mentioned.

We win out, BU is coach of the year no doubt. Beat Purdue, I still think he wins.
I think Brad is a great coach and I've liked him going back SFU and those Walkup teams.

However, there are some very valid criticisms of him(most coaches have some).

1. In game coaching/adjustments. I've always been a bit baffled by some of his substitution patterns. Leaving Goode in against MSU while he was getting torched is an example. Also just in general sometimes lacks to adjust his gameplan of it's not working.

2. Roster construction. Been a bit better lately but the Ayo/Kofi teams were basically just Kofi and guards, no length on the wing at all. Now they are lacking at point guard(been hidden by Domask).

3. After Gentry left the offense seemed stagnant though it now looks great, but all of a sudden they can't stop anyone. This year it would be more a question of inbounds plays and being unable to defend inbounds.
 
#54      
I'm actually going to do a coin flip bracket this year. I'll pick 1 and 2 seeds in the first round, but then every game after this is a coin flip. Heads for the higher seed, talis for the lower seed. I am confident that my coin flip bracket would be in the top half of a bracket challenge pool and would be 70-75% of my "real" bracket.

Just look at past years Look at all of the lower seeds making the Final Four. Facts are facts - the tournament is a random event today.
2011 - #8 seed and #11 seed
2013 - Two #4s and a #9
2014 - #7 and #8
2015 - #7
2016 - #10
2017 - #7
2018 - #11
2021 - #11
2022 - #8 seed
2023 - #4, two #5s and a #9

The last time all four Final Four teams were #4 seeds or higher was 2009 (#1, #1, #2, #3). FIFTEEN years ago. Not sure how much clearer the facts can be.
That’s some cherry picking of data if I’ve ever seen it. I can make the facts much clearer for you:

2010 - #1, #2, #5, #5
2011 - #3, #4, #8, #11
2012- #1, #2, #2, #4
2013 - #1, #4, #4, #9
2014 - #1, #2, #7, #8
2015 - #1, #1, #1, #7
2016 - #1, #2, #2, #10
2017 - #1, #1, #3, #7
2018 - #1, #1, #3, #11
2019 - #1, #2, #3, #5
2020 - COVID
2021 - #1, #1, #2, #11
2022 - #1, #2, #2, #8
2023 - #4, #5, #5, #9

Look at all those #1s and #2s you left out. With the exception of two tournaments in this time frame, #1s and #2s have been the dominant seeds in the final four. You might want to have the deed for your beach house ready to sign over.
 
#55      
I think Brad is a great coach and I've liked him going back SFU and those Walkup teams.

However, there are some very valid criticisms of him(most coaches have some).

1. In game coaching/adjustments. I've always been a bit baffled by some of his substitution patterns. Leaving Goode in against MSU while he was getting torched is an example. Also just in general sometimes lacks to adjust his gameplan of it's not working.

2. Roster construction. Been a bit better lately but the Ayo/Kofi teams were basically just Kofi and guards, no length on the wing at all. Now they are lacking at point guard(been hidden by Domask).

3. After Gentry left the offense seemed stagnant though it now looks great, but all of a sudden they can't stop anyone. This year it would be more a question of inbounds plays and being unable to defend inbounds.
Just to play devils advocate

1. We are first in the conference in 2nd half scoring margin. There are adjustments almost every halftime. A lot of them just little things that go unnoticed by the common fan.

2. The reason we went guards w/ Kofi is because we were strictly high ball screen with Kofi & Ayo so we needed shooters(every team needs them I get it) in the corners. The only real baffling roster was last year and on paper it looked good.

3. The lack of defending in bounds mostly comes down to lack of focus/awareness by the players….really just one in particular against PSU. They go over at nauseam the opponents top 2-3 BLOBS.
 
#56      
Just to play devils advocate

1. We are first in the conference in 2nd half scoring margin. There are adjustments almost every halftime. A lot of them just little things that go unnoticed by the common fan.

2. The reason we went guards w/ Kofi is because we were strictly high ball screen with Kofi & Ayo so we needed shooters(every team needs them I get it) in the corners. The only real baffling roster was last year and on paper it looked good.

3. The lack of defending in bounds mostly comes down to lack of focus/awareness by the players….really just one in particular against PSU. They go over at nauseam the opponents top 2-3 BLOBS.
But also those Ayo/Kofi teams were early on in a massive rebuild.

Look at the offers Illinois had out, they tried to get length with the high level guys not buying it (TSJ, Hunter, Brazdeikis & Nolley) and the kids they got didn't quite work out (sort of THT, Jones, Griffin).
 
#58      
That’s some cherry picking of data if I’ve ever seen it. I can make the facts much clearer for you:

2010 - #1, #2, #5, #5
2011 - #3, #4, #8, #11
2012- #1, #2, #2, #4
2013 - #1, #4, #4, #9
2014 - #1, #2, #7, #8
2015 - #1, #1, #1, #7
2016 - #1, #2, #2, #10
2017 - #1, #1, #3, #7
2018 - #1, #1, #3, #11
2019 - #1, #2, #3, #5
2020 - COVID
2021 - #1, #1, #2, #11
2022 - #1, #2, #2, #8
2023 - #4, #5, #5, #9

Look at all those #1s and #2s you left out. With the exception of two tournaments in this time frame, #1s and #2s have been the dominant seeds in the final four. You might want to have the deed for your beach house ready to sign over.
In the years you've listed 26 of 52 were 1/2 seeds, 50% . I'm taking those odds all day long.... And I'm sure going back further that percentage is even higher.
 
#59      
Just to play devils advocate

1. We are first in the conference in 2nd half scoring margin. There are adjustments almost every halftime. A lot of them just little things that go unnoticed by the common fan.

2. The reason we went guards w/ Kofi is because we were strictly high ball screen with Kofi & Ayo so we needed shooters(every team needs them I get it) in the corners. The only real baffling roster was last year and on paper it looked good.

3. The lack of defending in bounds mostly comes down to lack of focus/awareness by the players….really just one in particular against PSU. They go over ad nauseam the opponents top 2-3 BLOBS.
BOLD: THIS!!!
 
#60      
View attachment 31746

Thinking the Top Lineups window from EvanMiya is interesting...
our top five lineup (small sample size) is Domask / Harmon / Hawkins / Rodgers / Shannon 🤠
Didn’t we discover this fact like 5 games ago? I thought it was an ah-ha moment when that lineup clicked. Harmon in for Guerrier has just been better but we still rarely see that lineup still. And Ty is never on the floor at the end of games.

I would love to see that lineup extensively against Purdue - bigs kill us anyway so why not just accept it and get a smaller guard on the floor to create more offense/ on ball D
 
#61      

OrangeBlue98

Des Moines, IA
That's one of the things I love about March Madness - everyone has a chance. However, the better your seed is, the better your chances. That fact is pretty clear.

Here are a couple more facts:

13/15 national champions since 2008 were ranked in Torvik's top 10 prior to the tournament.

37/60 Final Four teams since 2008 were ranked in Torvik's top 10 prior to the tournament.

It's a wild coincidence that teams who prove to be the best at basketball from November to March are also the best at flipping coins in March and April.
Everything you’re using for stats happened before NIL and the transfer portal. The rules of the game have totally changed.

Big deal about what happened in the past about different rules. The pendulum was already shifting toward more random results even before the rules of the game completely changed. Of course a couple of high seeds will always go deep. They are always playing minnows early which are essentially guaranteed wins.
 
#63      
Just to play devils advocate

1. We are first in the conference in 2nd half scoring margin. There are adjustments almost every halftime. A lot of them just little things that go unnoticed by the common fan.

2. The reason we went guards w/ Kofi is because we were strictly high ball screen with Kofi & Ayo so we needed shooters(every team needs them I get it) in the corners. The only real baffling roster was last year and on paper it looked good.

3. The lack of defending in bounds mostly comes down to lack of focus/awareness by the players….really just one in particular against PSU. They go over ad nauseam the opponents top 2-3 BLOBS.
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#64      
Just to play devils advocate

1. We are first in the conference in 2nd half scoring margin. There are adjustments almost every halftime. A lot of them just little things that go unnoticed by the common fan.

2. The reason we went guards w/ Kofi is because we were strictly high ball screen with Kofi & Ayo so we needed shooters(every team needs them I get it) in the corners. The only real baffling roster was last year and on paper it looked good.

3. The lack of defending in bounds mostly comes down to lack of focus/awareness by the players….really just one in particular against PSU. They go over at nauseam the opponents top 2-3 BLOBS.
1. The lack of adjustments is mostly a concern of mine defensively and goes back to prior years. Despite the poor defensive I actually think they have done a better job this year of adjusting their scheme instead of continually letting the same thing cook them. Notably the Maryland game they started blitzing Young on the pnr and he was way less efficient late. However in the past I remember them stubbornly attempting the same thing over and over like trying let Kofi guard Edey 1 on 1 and never sending doubles and then allowing TJD to go off last year.

2. The Kofi teams definitely needed shooting even moreso then they had and the transfer portal was brand new Kofi's final year but they could have really used some length and athleticism on the wing imo. Alan Griffin or EJ Liddell would have been a huge add to both those teams. The 22 team really missed Grandison when he got injured but outside of Kofi they were either small or couldn't shoot. The offense really should have been unstoppable with how much attention Kofi drew.

3. I don't really know what they need to do about inbounding but they need to clean it up defensively and at least stop giving up layups. More importantly need to work on getting the ball inbounds when the other team is pressuring late game.

Harmon wasn't really working out as as the inbounder, looks like they have started to use Domask but he's not exactly the quicker decision maker(also may be the best ft shooter), Coleman might be the best choice as an inbounder but his length also makes him a good target to inbound the ball. I think Rodgers would do a good job but he's rightfully not going to be on the floor in a situation where they're fouling(Guerrier isn't a good ft shooter either). Goode has seemingly fallen out of the rotation but he does at least have some height and should be a good ft shooter(hasn't been great in a limited sample size).

Honestly, wonder if Nico or DGL might have a role simply being a late game inbounder and being able to knock down free throws but Brad would have to trust them to guard and it would be a small lineup (could maybe swap offense/defense with one of them and Ty though).
 
#65      
He’s not even in the discussion for it. It is what it is.
During basketball season my tv is parked on BTN. I don’t know if I have ever heard his name mentioned for COTY ever! Kinda baffling when you consider the dung heap he started with. My theory is instead of getting lucky and catching lightning in a bottle for one season, he built the program for the long haul and now it is expected that he will contend for the BT title every season. So there is no way to over-acheive in the voters eyes. He might not ever win the award, but it’s my opinion that Brad and Painter are probably the two best coaches in the conference long term. But I still yell at Brad through my TV sometimes.
 
#68      
NW 41% W
PU 45% L ( we got outrebounded by 15)
MSU 42% W
Md 46% L (we shot 33%)
MI 48% W
Ru - 37% W
NW - 55% L OT (problem was we shot 41%)
IU - 46% W (despite ILL shooting 37%)
OSU- 50% W
Neb 43% W
MSU 53% - L (problem was we shot 43%)
MI 43% - W
MD 41% - W
PSU 54% - L (we shot 48%, but had 18 turnovers)
IA 48% - W
Mn 60% - W

JMO - combination of recency bias and bad optics from high scoring games . MN win, PSU loss, and NW loss were only games where we allowed opponent to shoot 51% or better. Mn shooting 70% from 3 on 20 attempts may not happen again in another 20 years. Take away the PSU choke job and people would be clammering for a #2 seed.

Our offense became more high powered/shoot faster once TSJ returned.

People have expectation we should be blowing teams out by 20 points like we did early in year. It turns out that beating up FAU and Missouri was fools gold. We outscore our competitors by 12 ppg for the year. That is good enough.

I think Brad is only concerned about stacking wins and staying healthy for the big dance. Imagine the discussion board if TSJ had not gotten the injuction. Be thankful for what we have. #2 team in B10. Everybody healthy. High ceiling with 3 headed monster TSJ, Marcus and Domask.

:hailtotheorange::hailtotheorange::hailtotheorange::hailtotheorange::hailtotheorange::hailtotheorange:
Without PSU and MSU "chokejobs" on the road, winning Purdue game on Tuesday could be for reg season title.
 
#69      
Didn’t we discover this fact like 5 games ago? I thought it was an ah-ha moment when that lineup clicked. Harmon in for Guerrier has just been better but we still rarely see that lineup still. And Ty is never on the floor at the end of games.

I would love to see that lineup extensively against Purdue - bigs kill us anyway so why not just accept it and get a smaller guard on the floor to create more offense/ on ball D
As much as I love Ty. You probably want to have 5 shooters on the court at all time. Would be a good time for Goode to regain some confidence.

Think a lineup with Ty and 4 shooters works for stints with Ty setting ball screens. Other then that get Goode and Guerrier in. Might also be a decent spot for Moretti.

Edey can't guard out to the perimeter so Illini need to make them pay for it that by knocking down shots.
 
#70      

lstewart53x3

Scottsdale, Arizona
As much as I love Ty. You probably want to have 5 shooters on the court at all time. Would be a good time for Goode to regain some confidence.

Think a lineup with Ty and 4 shooters works for stints with Ty setting ball screens. Other then that get Goode and Guerrier in. Might also be a decent spot for Moretti.

Edey can't guard out to the perimeter so Illini need to make them pay for it that by knocking down shots.
Hawkins
QC
TJ
Harmon
Domask

+ Goode & Nico

^^^ All 7 can shoot. Edey either has to defend the perimeter or leave someone open.

Maybe Amani gets a few minutes? He can step out and take a 3 + grab a foul or two on Edey.
 
#71      
is there one particular coach or someone on staff who has been mostly responsible for this year's offense? I think it was Indy who said he wasn't initially thrilled with Tyler coming on staff, but he's helped out with the X's and O's quite a bit.
 
#72      
As much as I love Ty. You probably want to have 5 shooters on the court at all time. Would be a good time for Goode to regain some confidence.

Think a lineup with Ty and 4 shooters works for stints with Ty setting ball screens. Other then that get Goode and Guerrier in. Might also be a decent spot for Moretti.

Edey can't guard out to the perimeter so Illini need to make them pay for it that by knocking down shots.
Goode doesn't play much because he is too slow to defend. I just hope Quincy can hold the guy who avgs. About 4 points considerably under the 23 he got in first game.
 
#73      

theNewGuy

Dallas, TX
Everything you’re using for stats happened before NIL and the transfer portal. The rules of the game have totally changed.

Big deal about what happened in the past about different rules. The pendulum was already shifting toward more random results even before the rules of the game completely changed. Of course a couple of high seeds will always go deep. They are always playing minnows early which are essentially guaranteed wins.
Also, this year just seems particularly random.
Ranked teams are losing away games at a staggering rate compared to even just last year.
Parity is real.
 
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