Illini Basketball 2024-2025

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#326      
It seems like it takes at least 2 full seconds for anyone to realize we're actually inbounding the ball.
Kind of seems like that's the key to running their high stack set, everyone jockeys for position and then they make a sharp basket cut. They have scored on BLOB's pretty frequently this year. Of course the turnovers are inexcusable off of them, but they have an open layup at least 2 times a game.
 
#329      
Poor guy should've made millions here with NIL.

Whoever tf told him (if it really was just bad advice from his "camp") to try the overseas route in Asia right as NIL got fully rolling is an absolute idiot. Coleman is making more this one year than Kofi made during his entire tenure here I bet, which is wild to think about.
To be fair most of Kofi's tenure was pre-NIL.

And from what I've read Japan and South Korea pay really well by international ball standards. According to this Kofi is possibly even the highest earning international player in the KBL

 
#330      
Has the relationship with Mo healed a bit since off-season TA stuff/increased chances he returns? I still can't tell if he enjoys it here or not. Never seems to get too animated on the court or even smile much, but assuming he's just a calm kid.

It'd really hurt losing him. Homegrown, Mr. Basketball, committed since sophomore year.
 
#333      
To be fair most of Kofi's tenure was pre-NIL.

And from what I've read Japan and South Korea pay really well by international ball standards. According to this Kofi is possibly even the highest earning international player in the KBL

Making half a mil while playing in Seoul sounds like living the dream. The NBA is every player’s goal but l imagine he’s pretty happy with what he’s made out of his career.
 
#334      
Making half a mil while playing in Seoul sounds like living the dream. The NBA is every player’s goal but l imagine he’s pretty happy with what he’s made out of his career.
Lol, brings up a funny hypothetical......would you rather choose 2 mil and live in Manhattan Kansas, or 500k in Seoul????
 
#335      
This obviously means diddly squat at the end of the day, but I found ESPN's win probability rating for our remaining games very interesting. I used NET Rankings (Illini are currently #10), and I coded projected wins as orange and projected losses as blue:

65.2% at #64 Nebraska
75.7% vs. #28 Ohio State
75.5% at #82 Rutgers
79.4% at #101 Minnesota
76.4% vs. #33 UCLA
65.4% vs. #17 Michigan State

44.8% at #18 Wisconsin
25.5% vs. #3 Duke
(New York, NY)
86.0% vs. #65 Iowa
46.3% at #20 Michigan
62.9% vs. #9 Purdue

Again, this is just a thought exercise, and these same ratings would have had us as clear favorites at home vs. USC and Maryland. However, just "doing what we're supposed to" on paper would have us finish the season 8-3, leaving us at 22-9 (13-7) ... and we have more than a fighter's chance at Wisconsin and Michigan with these ratings.

To sum up, the only game remaining where we are just going to be simply fighting an uphill battle (again, at least on paper...) is Duke at MSG. If this team gets its head right and gets healthy, finishing on a 10-1 hot streak is not out of the question. I doubt it would happen, but it is not a pipe dream.

Winning two this week (at Nebraska and vs. OSU) would just be HUGE for getting back on track. If we are sitting at 8-4 in the Big Ten come Sunday night, we might have climbed back into that top tier of the standings. Teams above us have some losable games this week (Wisconsin at Maryland and Northwestern, MSU at USC, Michigan at Rutgers, etc.), and we need to start stacking wins again fast!
 
#336      
the king has returned GIF
 
#337      
Poor guy should've made millions here with NIL.

Whoever tf told him (if it really was just bad advice from his "camp") to try the overseas route in Asia right as NIL got fully rolling is an absolute idiot. Coleman is making more this one year than Kofi made during his entire tenure here I bet, which is wild to think about.
Remember he even got in trouble for selling some of his gear after his first time trying for the NBA.
 
#338      
This obviously means diddly squat at the end of the day, but I found ESPN's win probability rating for our remaining games very interesting. I used NET Rankings (Illini are currently #10), and I coded projected wins as orange and projected losses as blue:

65.2% at #64 Nebraska
75.7% vs. #28 Ohio State
75.5% at #82 Rutgers
79.4% at #101 Minnesota
76.4% vs. #33 UCLA
65.4% vs. #17 Michigan State

44.8% at #18 Wisconsin
25.5% vs. #3 Duke
(New York, NY)
86.0% vs. #65 Iowa
46.3% at #20 Michigan
62.9% vs. #9 Purdue

Again, this is just a thought exercise, and these same ratings would have had us as clear favorites at home vs. USC and Maryland. However, just "doing what we're supposed to" on paper would have us finish the season 8-3, leaving us at 22-9 (13-7) ... and we have more than a fighter's chance at Wisconsin and Michigan with these ratings.

To sum up, the only game remaining where we are just going to be simply fighting an uphill battle (again, at least on paper...) is Duke at MSG. If this team gets its head right and gets healthy, finishing on a 10-1 hot streak is not out of the question. I doubt it would happen, but it is not a pipe dream.

Winning two this week (at Nebraska and vs. OSU) would just be HUGE for getting back on track. If we are sitting at 8-4 in the Big Ten come Sunday night, we might have climbed back into that top tier of the standings. Teams above us have some losable games this week (Wisconsin at Maryland and Northwestern, MSU at USC, Michigan at Rutgers, etc.), and we need to start stacking wins again fast!

Good way to visualize the last stretch of the season.

This is certainly in the realm of possibility and would make for a very exciting February, especially as a build-up to Duke. The past 3 seasons' teams finished the year (last 11 games, comparing apples to apples, or another similar fruit) at 8-3 (2022), 6-5 (2023), and 8-3 (2024). comparing metrics, this team is more similar to 2022 and 2024 than 2023. In terms of SOS, these final 11 regular season games compared to the past 3 seasons are probably the toughest, but not by much. It seems like the Big 10 isn't getting as much credit as they should for being a pretty whole conference in terms of top-floating parity, especially with the SEC as good as it is this year as a conference.

If Tomi can get healthy enough, guys like Tre, Kylan and DGL can stay consistent, and guys like Will & Hummer can really come into their own, this team can clear the board. As an Illini fan this is the reality that I'm choosing to live with instead of considering the possibility of a petering out like 2023. Brad and staff, just keep them off the monster energies (or at least ensure they're indulging responsibly).
 
#340      
A little confirmation bias for all of you "where is the Orange Krush, we were #1 when I was walking uphill both ways in the snow to the games" guys here;

KenPom does a home-court advantage ranking from an aggregate of several stats & uses the past 60 home and away conference games. I compared all B1G teams, and Illinois is dead last in home-court advantage. The score in the right column is D-1 rank:

1738188892763.png
 
#341      
A little confirmation bias for all of you "where is the Orange Krush, we were #1 when I was walking uphill both ways in the snow to the games" guys here;

KenPom does a home-court advantage ranking from an aggregate of several stats & uses the past 60 home and away conference games. I compared all B1G teams, and Illinois is dead last in home-court advantage. The score in the right column is D-1 rank:

View attachment 39217
A couple of my quasi-subjective opinions I will choose to believe are 110% confirmed by this! :ROFLMAO:

1. The Kohl Center is just as much of a shadow of itself as SFC compared to the mid-2000s. While SFC AT LEAST gets really loud for big moments vs. big opponents, I have watched a lot of Wisconsin home games the last couple of years where that place just feels stale, even during its "loud" moments. Compare that the the atmosphere we walked into in 2005 for that "Something's Gotta Give Game," and MAN ... the Grateful Red has deteriorated at least as bad as Orange Krush.

2. It's really funny to see Iowa's placement, as it REALLY speaks more about how absolutely awful they are on the road. :ROFLMAO: Knock on wood and everything since we play them in Champaign next month, but they seem to fluctuate between a mediocre squad that has a 30% chance of just lighting it up from three at home to a thoroughly spineless and truly bad team on the road.

3. This jives with my paradoxical feeling sometimes that I am more nervous about home games than away games, all else equal. Don't get me wrong, we still have a much better chance at home, and the stats show that every single year. However, we have played remarkably well on the road during the Underwood Era, and I have always wondered if our "Everyday Guys" mentality helps to get our guys ready to play on these so called Business Trips and get some #roadkill. It too often seems like we are comparatively too relaxed while in Champaign.
 
#342      
A little confirmation bias for all of you "where is the Orange Krush, we were #1 when I was walking uphill both ways in the snow to the games" guys here;

KenPom does a home-court advantage ranking from an aggregate of several stats & uses the past 60 home and away conference games. I compared all B1G teams, and Illinois is dead last in home-court advantage. The score in the right column is D-1 rank:

View attachment 39217
That hurts.
 
#343      
A little confirmation bias for all of you "where is the Orange Krush, we were #1 when I was walking uphill both ways in the snow to the games" guys here;

KenPom does a home-court advantage ranking from an aggregate of several stats & uses the past 60 home and away conference games. I compared all B1G teams, and Illinois is dead last in home-court advantage. The score in the right column is D-1 rank:

View attachment 39217
Every part of this is sad, but being below Northwestern hurts the most.

Hurting Ryan Reynolds GIF by First We Feast
 
#344      
A couple of my quasi-subjective opinions I will choose to believe are 110% confirmed by this! :ROFLMAO:

1. The Kohl Center is just as much of a shadow of itself as SFC compared to the mid-2000s. While SFC AT LEAST gets really loud for big moments vs. big opponents, I have watched a lot of Wisconsin home games the last couple of years where that place just feels stale, even during its "loud" moments. Compare that the the atmosphere we walked into in 2005 for that "Something's Gotta Give Game," and MAN ... the Grateful Red has deteriorated at least as bad as Orange Krush.

2. It's really funny to see Iowa's placement, as it REALLY speaks more about how absolutely awful they are on the road. :ROFLMAO: Knock on wood and everything since we play them in Champaign next month, but they seem to fluctuate between a mediocre squad that has a 30% chance of just lighting it up from three at home to a thoroughly spineless and truly bad team on the road.

3. This jives with my paradoxical feeling sometimes that I am more nervous about home games than away games, all else equal. Don't get me wrong, we still have a much better chance at home, and the stats show that every single year. However, we have played remarkably well on the road during the Underwood Era, and I have always wondered if our "Everyday Guys" mentality helps to get our guys ready to play on these so called Business Trips and get some #roadkill. It too often seems like we are comparatively too relaxed while in Champaign.

#3 is a really good point I didn't consider when thinking about this - the stat is subjective to on the road vs at home performance, so maybe the Underwood era Illini are remarkably consistent, whereas when Buttgers leaves Jersey Mike's and goes on the road, they're more likely to lose. Our away games are comparatively outperforming our home games, perhaps? At least to an extent.

An interesting aside in the KP home-court ranking system- the best home court advantages aren't necessarily your power house blue bloods, and there are a lot of teams in the top 20 that are either a significant increase in elevation (4K feet+) or just logistically challenging to travel to. The average elevation for D-1 schools is around 800 ft, while the average elevation for D-1 schools in top 20 for home court advantage is 1,915 ft.

1738190955494.png
 
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#345      
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#347      
Lol, brings up a funny hypothetical......would you rather choose 2 mil and live in Manhattan Kansas, or 500k in Seoul????
Pretty easy to me. $2M in Kansas is probably worth a lot more given the cost of living there vs. a big city in the US. Not to mention the COL in Seoul is very high. I do recognize the tongue in cheek that Kansas might be pretty boring and Seoul exciting, but I can handle a boring year and then make that $2M last a long time.

1738193813191.png
 
#348      
A little confirmation bias for all of you "where is the Orange Krush, we were #1 when I was walking uphill both ways in the snow to the games" guys here;

KenPom does a home-court advantage ranking from an aggregate of several stats & uses the past 60 home and away conference games. I compared all B1G teams, and Illinois is dead last in home-court advantage. The score in the right column is D-1 rank:

View attachment 39217
I mean I’m not sure you can take this without a huge grain of salt purdue and Michigan state are 9th and 12th.

I’ve never heard OSU being a hard place to play.
 
#349      
A little confirmation bias for all of you "where is the Orange Krush, we were #1 when I was walking uphill both ways in the snow to the games" guys here;

KenPom does a home-court advantage ranking from an aggregate of several stats & uses the past 60 home and away conference games. I compared all B1G teams, and Illinois is dead last in home-court advantage. The score in the right column is D-1 rank:

View attachment 39217
This is good research, but I call BS. You're telling me that UCLA, that can barely fill a thimble with their reported crowds has a better home court advantage than Purdue over the last 60 games, in which UCLA was facing mostly Pac 10 foes?

We are supposed to believe we are worse than Minny? NW, where we fill 50% of the seats, at least?
 
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#350      
This is good research, but I call BS. You're telling me that UCLA, that can barely fill a thimble with thier reported crowds has a better home court advantage than Purdue over the last 60 games, in which UCLA was facing mostly Pac 10 foes?

We are supposed to believe we are worse than Minny? NW, where we fill 50% of the seats, at least?
I mean, I'm not an in the weeds, details and stats guy...but sheesh.
 
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