Illini Basketball 2024-2025

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#151      
MurphysBurger
This is also the counterpoint I make to the, well BU is a CEO and he can spot talent. He also has some swing and misses for consistency and 'EDG' talent combined with chasing off talent.

Someone needs to put up a chart of talent that left, their stats, and NIL money and the guys who came in, their stats, and NIL money and if damn feels like Brad just loves shiny !!!! and to go shopping because even though we landed some nice incoming freshman, all the known commodities that were illini guys left and were replaced by scabs that were, over a course of a season, worse than those that they replaced for basically the same price. And this is why I compare BU to some terrible bosses I've had who love to yell, place blame on others, and think everyone is replaceable and act accordingly.
 
#152      
Ramrod2010
eas23 said:
Every utterance of KJ and Riley needing more time in college reflects poorly on us as a ball-knowing fanbase.
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Reading both sides to this so many times over the past few weeks I believe there is a language gap to an extent.

KJ/Will may not need more time in college, but at the same time they may not be ready for the NBA.

I think it's a fair assessment to suggest that, while getting drafted in the 1st round, both KJ and Will may not see a whole lot of playing time in the NBA. At that point there are several questions to answer... Money (in hand and potential), looking at future draft classes (probably just the next one) to compare how stacked or baren it, does the G League or college provide a better opportunity for improvement (in game ability, body/conditioning).

Comparing college and G League can be aided by the fact that we have guys in the both right now, and TSJ has spent sizeable time in both. Use them and their experiences.

To your point about not knowing ball... I'm not familiar with how NBA contracts work but if either guy gets feedback that he'll fall outside of the lottery it might make sense to come back for one more year to try and work his way into the lottery.

Maybe I'm an idiot (first step is admittingto the problem, right?), but I can rationalize it as not being as cut and dry as they are gone.
 
#153      
Homecoming 2019
Ramrod2010 said:
Reading both sides to this so many times over the past few weeks I believe there is a language gap to an extent.

KJ/Will may not need more time in college, but at the same time they may not be ready for the NBA.

I think it's a fair assessment to suggest that, while getting drafted in the 1st round, both KJ and Will may not see a whole lot of playing time in the NBA. At that point there are several questions to answer... Money (in hand and potential), looking at future draft classes (probably just the next one) to compare how stacked or baren it, does the G League or college provide a better opportunity for improvement (in game ability, body/conditioning).

Comparing college and G League can be aided by the fact that we have guys in the both right now, and TSJ has spent sizeable time in both. Use them and their experiences.

To your point about not knowing ball... I'm not familiar with how NBA contracts work but if either guy gets feedback that he'll fall outside of the lottery it might make sense to come back for one more year to try and work his way into the lottery.

Maybe I'm an idiot (first step is admittingto the problem, right?), but I can rationalize it as not being as cut and dry as they are gone.
Click to expand...
Non Lottery first round picks are guaranteed between 5.1-8.7 mil, 12-20mil over 4 year options. We aren't paying these guys that much.
 
#154      
thefalcon5
B- season. Immediately following an A season. I’ll take that as a 2 year norm.

The absolute most disappointing part of this season was the inability to have the immense talent click for longer than a couple games at a time.

If anything, I think this season showed how good at evaluating the staff is. Time to upgrade the X’s and O’s. IMO it still feels like we’re building something big here.

Riley showing that kind of emotion solidified my beliefs that this team does actually care, that they weren’t just looking at making money. If we continue to find guys like that and upgrade our schemes, there’s no reason to not have very high goals for this program.
 
#156      
ChiefGritty
eas23 said:
Every utterance of KJ and Riley needing more time in college reflects poorly on us as a ball-knowing fanbase.
Click to expand...
The NBA is a better player development environment than college, and always has been.

The only reason a player with a first round grade should ever return to college is if they have a great opportunity to get up to the very top picks the next year and can collect a huge check for staying (and spend part of it on catastrophic injury insurance).

If you squint you could KINDA make that case for Will Riley. But I think he and KJ have their eyes dead-set on the NBA and that's a good call for both of them.
 
#158      
Emerson Bigguns
Ramrod2010 said:
Reading both sides to this so many times over the past few weeks I believe there is a language gap to an extent.

KJ/Will may not need more time in college, but at the same time they may not be ready for the NBA.

I think it's a fair assessment to suggest that, while getting drafted in the 1st round, both KJ and Will may not see a whole lot of playing time in the NBA. At that point there are several questions to answer... Money (in hand and potential), looking at future draft classes (probably just the next one) to compare how stacked or baren it, does the G League or college provide a better opportunity for improvement (in game ability, body/conditioning).

Comparing college and G League can be aided by the fact that we have guys in the both right now, and TSJ has spent sizeable time in both. Use them and their experiences.

To your point about not knowing ball... I'm not familiar with how NBA contracts work but if either guy gets feedback that he'll fall outside of the lottery it might make sense to come back for one more year to try and work his way into the lottery.

Maybe I'm an idiot (first step is admittingto the problem, right?), but I can rationalize it as not being as cut and dry as they are gone.
Click to expand...
I agree with most of your assessment, except I would change falling out of the lottery to falling out of the first round. First round picks get an extremely nice, guaranteed salary, and the sooner you get on a rookie contract, the sooner you get off a rookie contract.

I do think KJ will play and play a lot, if he is indeed taken in the lottery. He will likely go to a team that needs him and will be willing to let him take his lumps on the big stage. The only circumstance where that might be the case is if he is drafted to a good team that has someone else's draft rights in the lottery. (a la TJ's fellow 1st round teammate, Rob Dillingham)
 
#159      
skyIdub
I mean, if you didn’t truly enjoy KJ from a pure basketball perspective this year, I feel sorry for your basketball feels.
Same goes for this last burst from Will. Good grief those kids are so talented.

I hate that the team didn’t come together with a run as much as any of us, but both those kids are the one and dones we’ve pined for and watched at other unis for so long.

Hope we can find some more soon.
 
#160      
Illini2010-11
eas23 said:
Every utterance of KJ and Riley needing more time in college reflects poorly on us as a ball-knowing fanbase.
Click to expand...
It is more of a misunderstanding of the current landscape of how NBA executives treat the draft. Both of them can and will get drafted if they declare for NBA draft. KJ is still in lottery draft territory, despite what many say on this board. If you look at mock draft boards for CBS (used as example only), all three of their "experts" have KJ going with the 4th pick. For the top 10 draft picks, freshman are projected to be picked in all slots (with exception of maybe 1 international player).

This clearly illustrates how the NBA is treating the draft these days. They want youth that has a ton of talent and upside, even if they are not what we keyboard warriors would call "NBA ready Day 1".

I believe that Riley will end up staying in the draft, especially if he gets guarantees that he would be drafted in Round 1. The only way he sticks in college is if he gets feedback that he is Round 2 material, but the way he performed the last two months, I fully expect him to get drafted at this point. The season may have fallen short of expectations, but it will be a good reflection on the program if we can get two players drafted in the first round, and will be an extra incentive to wear the orange and blue for recruits (in addition to the plethora of NIL available here).
 
#161      
ChiefGritty
skyIdub said:
I mean, if you didn’t truly enjoy KJ from a pure basketball perspective this year, I feel sorry for your basketball feels.
Same goes for this last burst from Will. Good grief those kids are so talented.

I hate that the team didn’t come together with a run as much as any of us, but both those kids are the one and dones we’ve pined for and watched at other unis for so long.

Hope we can find some more soon.
Click to expand...
There's a certain irony in us getting bounced by that UK team though, in that we just experienced a very late Calipari-esque season.

There may very well not be a single meaningful NBA career on that Kentucky roster, but it's a more successful season, and surely a more satisfying one, especially to the extent that they're going to return and build with some of their younger talent.

I will never turn my nose up at elite one-and-dones which can really make an impact in college, but let's not pretend KJ's exploits in the NBA will be as meaningful for us fans as, say, Ayo's.
 
#162      
skyIdub
ChiefGritty said:
I will never turn my nose up at elite one-and-dones which can really make an impact in college, but let's not pretend KJ's exploits in the NBA will be as meaningful for us fans as, say, Ayo's.
Click to expand...

Is there any indication of this in my post? Or any others?

I haven’t read anything remotely approaching this.
 
#163      
skyIdub
A second follow up to that is that if KJ played 3 years of college ball like Ayo (TSJ)…he would be the #1 or 2 overall pick in the draft barring injury and a similar draft class.
 
#164      
ChiefGritty
skyIdub said:
A second follow up to that is that if KJ played 3 years of college ball like Ayo (TSJ)…he would be the #1 or 2 overall pick in the draft barring injury and a similar draft class.
Click to expand...
That's absolutely not the way that works.

And Ayo and TSJ make for a good explanatory case. Both guys completely dominated college basketball resulting in minimal gain to their NBA stocks.

Especially with KJ's NBA skillset which is so based on his creativity and craftiness and space exploitation in the pick and roll, there's not much more the NBA can see from him until he's doing it against the older and longer players in the pro game.

So he tightens up his handle and with greater experience is regularly destroying college talent every night next year. That's table stakes, that's ALREADY his projection, he's just getting another year older.

He'd be a fool to stay.
 
#165      
skyIdub
ChiefGritty said:
That's absolutely not the way that works.

And Ayo and TSJ make for a good explanatory case. Both guys completely dominated college basketball resulting in minimal gain to their NBA stocks.

Especially with KJ's NBA skillset which is so based on his creativity and craftiness and space exploitation in the pick and roll, there's not much more the NBA can see from him until he's doing it against the older and longer players in the pro game.

So he tightens up his handle and with greater experience is regularly destroying college talent every night next year. That's table stakes, that's ALREADY his projection, he's just getting another year older.

He'd be a fool to stay.
Click to expand...

Of course.

But to suggest he doesn’t improve his game to the point of being an even higher pick than he will this year is also ridiculous.
 
#166      
Homecoming 2019
skyIdub said:
Of course.

But to suggest he doesn’t improve his game to the point of being an even higher pick than he will this year is also ridiculous.
Click to expand...
NBA scouts don't need to see another year of KJ if they think he's a lottery pick. He's not all the sudden going to develop Anthony Edward level athleticism. Another year changes nothing other than the possibility that next year's draft class is weaker.
 
#167      
ChiefGritty
skyIdub said:
But to suggest he doesn’t improve his game to the point of being an even higher pick than he will this year is also ridiculous.
Click to expand...
I mean he's a non-freakazoid athlete projected to go in the top 5. To stay in the SAME draft position as a year-older player he would need to improve his game to a significant, potentially unrealistic degree.

NBA scouts think he can be a PnR wizard against NBA length and talent as an 18 year old. He has no ability to prove that hypothesis right or wrong in college. So he just becomes a guy NBA scouts think can be a PnR wizard as a 19 year old, a strictly worse proposition.

It cannot be overemphasized how much the NBA does not care how *good* a player is in college, versus the projectible traits they demonstrate in college. We can all see how much better KJ could be as a college player next year. Totally, totally meaningless.

I'm dropping this, this is the kind of argument I would get in in 2009. Serenity now.
 
#168      
Homecoming 2019
ChiefGritty said:
I mean he's a non-freakazoid athlete projected to go in the top 5. To stay in the SAME draft position as a year-older player he would need to improve his game to a significant, potentially unrealistic degree.

NBA scouts think he can be a PnR wizard against NBA length and talent as an 18 year old. He has no ability to prove that hypothesis right or wrong in college. So he just becomes a guy NBA scouts think can be a PnR wizard as a 19 year old, a strictly worse proposition.

It cannot be overemphasized how much the NBA does not care how *good* a player is in college, versus the projectible traits they demonstrate in college. We can all see how much better KJ could be as a college player next year. Totally, totally meaningless.

I'm dropping this, this is the kind of argument I would get in in 2009. Serenity now.
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But Jereme Richmond should have stayed, right??
 
#169      
lstewart53x3
Emerson Bigguns said:
I agree with most of your assessment, except I would change falling out of the lottery to falling out of the first round. First round picks get an extremely nice, guaranteed salary, and the sooner you get on a rookie contract, the sooner you get off a rookie contract.

I do think KJ will play and play a lot, if he is indeed taken in the lottery. He will likely go to a team that needs him and will be willing to let him take his lumps on the big stage. The only circumstance where that might be the case is if he is drafted to a good team that has someone else's draft rights in the lottery. (a la TJ's fellow 1st round teammate, Rob Dillingham)
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Having a single one and done on a team full of upperclassmen, probably smart.

Having 4 of the top 6 rotational players be freshman, even if 2 of them are one and dones, probably not so smart.
 
#170      
skyIdub
ChiefGritty said:
I'm dropping this, this is the kind of argument I would get in in 2009. Serenity now.
Click to expand...

Lmao, you literally created the argument dude.

Strawman arguing with Gritty was also not on my to do list today!
 
#171      
Illini2010-11
skyIdub said:
Of course.

But to suggest he doesn’t improve his game to the point of being an even higher pick than he will this year is also ridiculous.
Click to expand...
Not sure that I agree with this conclusion. KJ is projected to be a lottery pick, and many expect him to go by the #4 or 5 pick. This very well could be a down year in the draft. With his youth, the NBA executives are going to want him to improve his game in their system. Another year in college will likely not change that much. If anything, he will be a year older than what executives are looking for in the draft. I see absolutely no upside in staying in college for an additional year for guys like KJ (projected to be lottery pick), except of course if they truly wanted to win a natty at the college level.
 
#172      
LvilleILL1
KJ is 1000% gone, as he should be. Say what you want about him but we will be getting the best European college prospect next year because of his love for the program (along with ties we now have). Sarr has seen how KJ has raised his stock to a top 10 prospect along with Tomi having a great season.
 
#173      
camo202
If Sarr and Jakucionis were in the same class how big is the gap between them?
 
#174      
skyIdub
I have not suggested KJ should stay or that college would prepare him more.

I made the regrettable decision to respond to an strawman argument and engage in a hypothetical comparison to Ayo et al..and staying 3 years.

Regret. Out.

batista-leave-ring.gif
 
#175      
Curbelo Fanboy
Illini2010-11 said:
It is more of a misunderstanding of the current landscape of how NBA executives treat the draft. Both of them can and will get drafted if they declare for NBA draft. KJ is still in lottery draft territory, despite what many say on this board. If you look at mock draft boards for CBS (used as example only), all three of their "experts" have KJ going with the 4th pick. For the top 10 draft picks, freshman are projected to be picked in all slots (with exception of maybe 1 international player).

This clearly illustrates how the NBA is treating the draft these days. They want youth that has a ton of talent and upside, even if they are not what we keyboard warriors would call "NBA ready Day 1".

I believe that Riley will end up staying in the draft, especially if he gets guarantees that he would be drafted in Round 1. The only way he sticks in college is if he gets feedback that he is Round 2 material, but the way he performed the last two months, I fully expect him to get drafted at this point. The season may have fallen short of expectations, but it will be a good reflection on the program if we can get two players drafted in the first round, and will be an extra incentive to wear the orange and blue for recruits (in addition to the plethora of NIL available here).
Click to expand...
It would seem this approach is higher in risk but I guess the potential upside is greater. If KJ stayed for say 3 years (assuming he cleaned up the sloppiness in his game) he’d enter the league as a high level player day 1. As it is he’ll get drafted high based on potential. There’s a chance he doesn’t fully develop and ends up buried on the bench somewhere before getting shipped to Europe in a few years.
 
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