Illini Basketball 2025-2026

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#201      
IlliniFan42
the juiceman cometh said:
That's not the infinite. I think our floor is higher than a sub-.500 season for one, and I think our ceiling is lower than an undefeated season. And if someone thinks our ceiling is, say Final Four I'd buy that.

But essentially you are saying if absolutely everything goes right, the best case scenario is we have the same result as last season. And if everything goes absolutely wrong, the worst case scenario is we win one fewer game than if everything goes absolutely right. You can't actually believe that, can you?
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Yeah that's practically infinite when it comes to our team. Forgive me, but when people say "you don't know what a ceiling is" when what they're really saying is "I don't like that your ceiling isn't as high as mine" I get annoyed. No offense but there's not a whole lot of value in a discussion if someone asked you your range of outcomes and that's the range you gave them.

"How do I think they'll do this year? I think they'll be at least over .500, but I don't think they'll go undefeated. They might make the Final Four too." Like that's it?

But yes, if our team doesn't mesh very well, I think we have the talent and the staff to make the tournament, that's basically what Shannon's first year was. At this point we can sleepwalk in.

And if everything works out, we lose in the second round, because I expect our defense to be exploited and our shallow guard depth to bite us in the !!!.

If you want me to raise the ceiling, I need to hear Ty Rodgers has recovered by the time the season starts.
 
#202      
NarrowJ
IlliniFan42 said:
Yeah that's practically infinite when it comes to our team. Forgive me, but when people say "you don't know what a ceiling is" when what they're really saying is "I don't like that your ceiling isn't as high as mine" I get annoyed. No offense but there's not a whole lot of value in a discussion if someone asked you your range of outcomes and that's the range you gave them.

"How do I think they'll do this year? I think they'll be at least over .500, but I don't think they'll go undefeated. They might make the Final Four too." Like that's it?

But yes, if our team doesn't mesh very well, I think we have the talent and the staff to make the tournament, that's basically what Shannon's first year was. At this point we can sleepwalk in.

And if everything works out, we lose in the second round, because I expect our defense to be exploited and our shallow guard depth to bite us in the !!!.

If you want me to raise the ceiling, I need to hear Ty Rodgers has recovered by the time the season starts.
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We aren’t raising the ceiliing, youre lowering it using your own imaginary set of two data points

We are using data from respected sources (Evan Miya, Torvik, etc) and gleaning a ceiling from it. I am sorry that you do not like/agree with the data available, or that it does not align with your extremely narrow-minded view of things, but it is what it is.

To say this coming season only has two possible outcomes is not only ignorant, it’s just factually incorrect.
 
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#203      
the juiceman cometh
IlliniFan42 said:
Yeah that's practically infinite when it comes to our team. Forgive me, but when people say "you don't know what a ceiling is" when what they're really saying is "I don't like that your ceiling isn't as high as mine" I get annoyed. No offense but there's not a whole lot of value in a discussion if someone asked you your range of outcomes and that's the range you gave them.
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No, again my problem is the very tiny range of possibilities. If your ceiling is genuinely the 2nd round that's fine, but your floor has to be way lower. No team that is absolutely incapable of winning a 2nd round tournament game is also a lock to make the tournament. It doesn't make any sense.

And yeah, I don't actually think there is a ton of value in any discussion of a team's floor and ceiling because 99% of teams don't end up seeing their floor or ceiling.
 
#204      
blackdog
IlliniFan42 said:
Yeah that's practically infinite when it comes to our team. Forgive me, but when people say "you don't know what a ceiling is" when what they're really saying is "I don't like that your ceiling isn't as high as mine" I get annoyed. No offense but there's not a whole lot of value in a discussion if someone asked you your range of outcomes and that's the range you gave them.

"How do I think they'll do this year? I think they'll be at least over .500, but I don't think they'll go undefeated. They might make the Final Four too." Like that's it?

But yes, if our team doesn't mesh very well, I think we have the talent and the staff to make the tournament, that's basically what Shannon's first year was. At this point we can sleepwalk in.

And if everything works out, we lose in the second round, because I expect our defense to be exploited and our shallow guard depth to bite us in the !!!.

If you want me to raise the ceiling, I need to hear Ty Rodgers has recovered by the time the season starts.
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What happens if everything clicks, Petrovic looks like a stud pg, Stojakovic is a clear 1st round pick, the twin towers lock down the paint, Kylan continues his play from the end of the season, Wagler looks as good as early reports, and Ben gets his shot back on track? If you say all of those things go right and they only make the 2nd round then we are doomed forever.
 
#205      
skyIdub
I guess I should do a weekly PSA here that your Fighting Illini Football squad is 3-0 and headed up in the Top 10 this week?

Can I recommend debating RB1 vs Rb2, or Barry Lunney play calling?

Debating Illinois Basketball’s “ceiling” in early September is like determining the “ceiling” of my grandmas chili by looking at her recipe.
Maybe wait til you taste it?
 
#206      
Ryllini
skyIdub said:
I guess I should do a weekly PSA here that your Fighting Illini Football squad is 3-0 and headed up in the Top 10 this week?

Can I recommend debating RB1 vs Rb2, or Barry Lunney play calling?

Debating Illinois Basketball’s “ceiling” in early September is like determining the “ceiling” of my grandmas chili by looking at her recipe.
Maybe wait til you taste it?
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Channel 9 Reaction GIF by LEGO Masters Australia

You have to love our sickos we have. Why not debate both. We are riding high. 🤣
 
#207      
logjam
skyIdub said:
I guess I should do a weekly PSA here that your Fighting Illini Football squad is 3-0 and headed up in the Top 10 this week?

Can I recommend debating RB1 vs Rb2, or Barry Lunney play calling?

Debating Illinois Basketball’s “ceiling” in early September is like determining the “ceiling” of my grandmas chili by looking at her recipe.
Maybe wait til you taste it?
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Good luck with that...
We haven't even figured out what athletic means yet.../s
 
#208      
thrillini
IlliniFan42 said:
Just because it's a narrow range doesn't make it any less valid. The competitive aspect of sport analysis is to see who can narrow their range the most while maintaining accuracy. Last year I said there were three possible outcomes and the Illini hit the middle one. This year I am saying there are two. I wish I could project a higher ceiling because I'd love for them to succeed, but I just don't see it at this time.

I'd love to be proven wrong, but if I expected to be proven wrong, their ceiling would be higher.
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It seems you're describing the ceiling of your imagination, but not the ceiling of this team.
 
#209      
IlliniFan42
blackdog said:
What happens if everything clicks, Petrovic looks like a stud pg, Stojakovic is a clear 1st round pick, the twin towers lock down the paint, Kylan continues his play from the end of the season, Wagler looks as good as early reports, and Ben gets his shot back on track? If you say all of those things go right and they only make the 2nd round then we are doomed forever.
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I'm just cynical when it comes to practice reports. We went from a top 10 freshman class to top 70. I think Andrej is recovering from an injury they haven't told us much about and will need to make a massive step to be a first rounder. I think the Ivisic brothers won't contribute much defensively, maybe high block numbers to indicate how often they're getting beaten to shots and then saving themselves with their reach, but that's not sustainable.

Kylan's awesome I actually don't doubt him at all, but I don't think one man can cover up the collective defensive flaws. I think Ben might improve his shot, but the game will still move too fast for him which will still cause turnovers when he's the pass target and he'll put effort in on defense but it'll not be enough.

I think without Ty this team is desperately missing a 6th man who can also start when needed. I think any foul trouble at the 1-2 spots and we start getting cooked fast.

We're not doomed forever, I just see a good team this year that's not better than last year's team and certainly isn't better than the Ayo+Kofi team that both lost in the Round of 32. The team as built had potential of Sweet 16 but Ty got hurt. When Virginia's 6th man got hurt they lost to a 16-seed, it happens.
 
#210      
BretMyBeachHouse
IlliniFan42 said:
I'm just cynical when it comes to practice reports. We went from a top 10 freshman class to top 70. I think Andrej is recovering from an injury they haven't told us much about and will need to make a massive step to be a first rounder. I think the Ivisic brothers won't contribute much defensively, maybe high block numbers to indicate how often they're getting beaten to shots and then saving themselves with their reach, but that's not sustainable.

Kylan's awesome I actually don't doubt him at all, but I don't think one man can cover up the collective defensive flaws. I think Ben might improve his shot, but the game will still move too fast for him which will still cause turnovers when he's the pass target and he'll put effort in on defense but it'll not be enough.

I think without Ty this team is desperately missing a 6th man who can also start when needed. I think any foul trouble at the 1-2 spots and we start getting cooked fast.

We're not doomed forever, I just see a good team this year that's not better than last year's team and certainly isn't better than the Ayo+Kofi team that both lost in the Round of 32. The team as built had potential of Sweet 16 but Ty got hurt. When Virginia's 6th man got hurt they lost to a 16-seed, it happens.
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One's predictions of what will happen is actually irrelevant to judging the ceiling for the team.

Your projecting that these things won't happen. Not that they can't happen.

No one here, including you, has much of a clue what petrovic will do. That's a big reason why there's a wide gap between our floor and ceiling.
 
#211      
Rap47
How can your range of wins for this team be between winning the first round in the tournament and second round. I would imagine everyone on this site would take that bet.
 
#212      
illiniguy24
skyIdub said:
I guess I should do a weekly PSA here that your Fighting Illini Football squad is 3-0 and headed up in the Top 10 this week?

Can I recommend debating RB1 vs Rb2, or Barry Lunney play calling?

Debating Illinois Basketball’s “ceiling” in early September is like determining the “ceiling” of my grandmas chili by looking at her recipe.
Maybe wait til you taste it?
Click to expand...
There are fans who, while they cheer for both major sports, are really in the weeds nerding out on message boards about only one of them.
 
#214      
OB positive
IlliniFan42 said:
I'm just cynical when it comes to practice reports. We went from a top 10 freshman class to top 70. I think Andrej is recovering from an injury they haven't told us much about and will need to make a massive step to be a first rounder. I think the Ivisic brothers won't contribute much defensively, maybe high block numbers to indicate how often they're getting beaten to shots and then saving themselves with their reach, but that's not sustainable.

Kylan's awesome I actually don't doubt him at all, but I don't think one man can cover up the collective defensive flaws. I think Ben might improve his shot, but the game will still move too fast for him which will still cause turnovers when he's the pass target and he'll put effort in on defense but it'll not be enough.

I think without Ty this team is desperately missing a 6th man who can also start when needed. I think any foul trouble at the 1-2 spots and we start getting cooked fast.

We're not doomed forever, I just see a good team this year that's not better than last year's team and certainly isn't better than the Ayo+Kofi team that both lost in the Round of 32. The team as built had potential of Sweet 16 but Ty got hurt. When Virginia's 6th man got hurt they lost to a 16-seed, it happens.
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Here we go. Doom and gloom before the season has even started. 🙃
 
#216      
Bbuck21
Maybe we just need a new thread entitled, "What's your ceiling for the Illini, include your work". That way I can more easily skip it. Just kidding.
 
#217      
jamarvelous31
IlliniFan42 said:
Just because it's a narrow range doesn't make it any less valid. The competitive aspect of sport analysis is to see who can narrow their range the most while maintaining accuracy. Last year I said there were three possible outcomes and the Illini hit the middle one. This year I am saying there are two. I wish I could project a higher ceiling because I'd love for them to succeed, but I just don't see it at this time.

I'd love to be proven wrong, but if I expected to be proven wrong, their ceiling would be higher.
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Slogging through 4 pages of you all arguing with a pick me pessimist is a lot. Is there any chance you guys can have this 3 person pedantic discussion in DMs?

Just to be clear on this definition:
 

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#218      
pruman91
skyIdub said:
I guess I should do a weekly PSA here that your Fighting Illini Football squad is 3-0 and headed up in the Top 10 this week?

Can I recommend debating RB1 vs Rb2, or Barry Lunney play calling?

Debating Illinois Basketball’s “ceiling” in early September is like determining the “ceiling” of my grandmas chili by looking at her recipe.
Maybe wait til you taste it?
Click to expand...
0000000000000000000000.gif
 
#219      
EllderIlliniFan
skyIdub said:
I guess I should do a weekly PSA here that your Fighting Illini Football squad is 3-0 and headed up in the Top 10 this week?

Can I recommend debating RB1 vs Rb2, or Barry Lunney play calling?

Debating Illinois Basketball’s “ceiling” in early September is like determining the “ceiling” of my grandmas chili by looking at her recipe.
Maybe wait til you taste it?
Click to expand...
Now that I know the full details of the ceiling and the floor, I may not even have to watch the games. :(:(
 
#221      
amillini#2
jamarvelous31 said:
Slogging through 4 pages of you all arguing with a pick me pessimist is a lot. Is there any chance you guys can have this 3 person pedantic discussion in DMs?

Just to be clear on this definition:
Click to expand...
What is needed is the definition of ‘floor’ and ‘ceiling.’ Otherwise agree with the spirit of this.
 
#222      
Mobi
IlliniFan42 said:
No, my logic is that because Underwood isn't routinely reaching the second weekend, he doesn't strike me as a coach that overperforms his roster, and in my opinion his teams often underperform their rosters in March, and I'm pretty sure the stats back that up.

Please inform me what a ceiling is, because while y'all might disagree with where I'm placing the ceiling, I don't see you actually saying what you think a ceiling is, but if I'm just supposed to play coy and post memes instead of have an actual discussion, I could resign myself to that.
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While I agree so far Underwood has not overperformed in the tourney, he mostly (except for the 1 seed year) performs to the level of talents. I think it is too early to say that we don't have the talent for Sweet 16. Also we all know seeding and drawing play a large role. While you might be right, I think you are too pessimistic preseason. Personally, I think this team can be anywhere from round of 32 to elite 8.
 
#223      
RollChief
For someone who is tech-savvy - Is there a way to feed the full Illinoisloyalty.com Illini basketball historical archive through a model to gauge sentiment? I’d love to see whether there’s any measurable correlation between preseason board sentiment and actual season results. For example, what was the ratio of positive vs. negative takes the season before the Elite 8 run, and how does that compare to the years immediately before and after?

Personally, I think we’ve got top-5 talent at four of the five positions (Petrovic at PG, Bam at SG, Stoj at the wing, and Tomi at C). If this group gels, they’re absolutely capable of making a deep run, so here’s some positive sentiment to balance out the negativity. But is there really a correlation between sentiment and success, given that there will always be “Negative Nancy’s”? After all, I'm sure people were saying the ’05 team was too three-point dependent and wouldn’t make it past the first weekend.
 
#224      
the juiceman cometh
amillini#2 said:
What is needed is the definition of ‘floor’ and ‘ceiling.’ Otherwise agree with the spirit of this.
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Is it really unclear what these concepts mean in sports? They're used all the time, and I think pretty consistently.

Anyway sorry for my contribution to the offending discussion. I guess I'll just look forward to seeing whether we win our first round game in the Tournament (apparently the best result we can hope for) or whether we lose that game (worst-case disaster scenario we are all hoping to avoid). In the meantime, let's enjoy some Illini football, which has a floor of 9 wins, and a ceiling of 9 wins (but with a better point differential).
 
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