Apologies if this is not the correct thread, but the preseason predictions one is now locked. I was thinking about our "ceiling" and "floor" again, and I thought it would be interesting to divide up our games using the current
KenPom Rankings. Obviously we have been good for a few surprise big wins and a few dud losses during the Underwood Era, but those would theoretically cancel out. So, below is a COMPLETELY SUBJECTIVE categorization that simply uses the rankings and doesn't take into account how teams looked (e.g., Iowa looks underrated and Purdue looks a little overrated).
For reference, Illinois is #5 in these rankings. Whether or not you think we are overrated there is kind of irrelevant to the exercise, as I think I was pretty conservative... They are also in descending order from how much we "should win" to how much we "should lose," more or less. The blue record below each category is a sort of "expected record" if we are "staying on track," if you will.
Already Won: Already in the bag as a 1-0 record!
1-0
vs. #266 Jackson State
Simply Cannot Lose: These would be disastrous losses, and they are INCREDIBLY unlikely to happen.
5-0
vs. #292 LIU
vs. #221 UTRGV
vs. #181 Colgate
vs. #188 FGCU
vs. #176 Southern
VERY Heavy Favorites: A step up from the previous category, but we should REALLY not be losing these games, especially with them all at home.
2-0
vs. #86 Rutgers
vs. #67 Minnesota
Heavy Favorites: These are not necessarily bad teams by any means. However, if we are going to have any type of successful season by this program's standards, we cannot be losing to these teams at home without making up for it with a huge Quad 1A win or something.
4-0
vs. #59 Northwestern
vs. #50 Nebraska
vs. #46 Oregon
vs. #43 Washington
We Should Win: These are scarier games than the previous category, and some are away from home. However, if we come to play, we will win these games, period.
4-1
vs. #38 Indiana
vs. #104 Penn State (Philadelphia, PA)
vs. #37 Maryland
at #59 Northwestern
at #50 Nebraska
Protecting Home Court: These are great wins on paper, but since they are the types of games we'd expect to lose on the road ... we need to expect to have a winning record vs. these teams on our turf (which includes the UC).
2-1
vs. #18 Wisconsin
vs. #24 Alabama (Chicago, IL)
vs. #13 Texas Tech
------- We are now at an "on track" record of
18-2 before entering the matchups that I believe sort of "make your resume" and determine how battle-tested you will be come March.
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"Resume Maker" Games: These are the types of games that good teams simply FIND a way to win in order to earn a great seed. It's really tough to win on the road in-conference or to beat a solid Mizzou team in a Braggin' Rights environment ... these will show us what we are made of.
3-2
vs. #29 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
at #35 Ohio State
at #23 USC
at #40 Iowa
at #37 Maryland
Statement Wins: These aren't quite "icing on the cake" wins (see below), but they will be very tough. Assuming we go winless in the last category, we'll go with 1-2 here ... or take your 0-3 here and 1-2 in the next to get the same result.
1-2
vs. #15 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
vs. #9 Michigan
at #34 Michigan State
Icing on the Cake: Winning these is getting into #1 seed territory where we are just on fire and out for blood!
0-3
at #20 UCLA
vs. #7 UConn (New York, NY)
at #1 Purdue
------- That would get us to a record of
22-9 before the BTT.
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I think that is a solid way to look at it. 22-9 likely means a top 4 seed and several impressive Quad 1 wins, given the schedule. Once we start talking about fewer than 8 losses, we are REALLY talking about a great resume!! You can shift teams however you'd like (I was just using the only rankings available), but I think it would probably end at a similar result. Personally, I think we would be better off in this type of scenario beating one of UCLA/UConn/Purdue and dropping another Statement Wins or Resume Maker game ... getting those marquee Quad 1A wins seems quite valued by the Committee.
