Agreed! (FIFY...)
Illini Basketball 2025-2026
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100%. I will be at both games! There are a lot of SoCal Alums that have been waiting for the team to make the SoCal swing. Can't wait.
skyIdub
"I can't tell you. Secret."
Great post except for the absolute fact that the 1 loss implied in this category is Maryland at home.
Maryland or even Northwestern. Forget the record books games.Great post except for the absolute fact that the 1 loss implied in this category is Maryland at home.
Side note-Penn State if played in a rec league gym.
I find it so hard to predict anymore. These rosters change so much its so hard to tell what's actually going to happen. Chemistry is so important. Look at the year with Clark and Mayer. Everyone thought that was a final four year for sure and that was a massively disappointing season. In the past it was so much easier as players progress throughout their years here
Im to the point where I really don't pay attention to pre season projections. I just tune in and watch
Not criticizing anyone who wants to do predictions, it can be fun.
I feel like a part of me lost some interest with all the changes. I miss following recruiting and actually knowing the players
Im to the point where I really don't pay attention to pre season projections. I just tune in and watch
Not criticizing anyone who wants to do predictions, it can be fun.
I feel like a part of me lost some interest with all the changes. I miss following recruiting and actually knowing the players
Now that most teams have actually played 1 game, KenPom's "fun stats" are beginning to populate. These are the KP stats that can't be easily be predicted until it becomes clearer how rosters will be applied to rotation, and these 4 stats are Avg Height, Experience, Bench, and Continuity.
I was interested in what the top 10 KP teams look like so far in each of these stats. These are all subject to change a fair amount over the course of the season as coaches further define their rotations, but was excited that we can now finally look at these stats for this season. I've pasted the table below, and you can find the explanation for the calculation of each of these stats linked here. Height and Other Stuff
Observations:
I was interested in what the top 10 KP teams look like so far in each of these stats. These are all subject to change a fair amount over the course of the season as coaches further define their rotations, but was excited that we can now finally look at these stats for this season. I've pasted the table below, and you can find the explanation for the calculation of each of these stats linked here. Height and Other Stuff
Observations:
- Illinois average height is ranked 5th in the nation. 5 of the top 10 teams are also top 10 in height. If you averaged the top 10, average height would rank ~22nd in the nation (out of 365). Conclusion? Good teams are big!
- Illinois is 41st overall and 4th amongst the top 10 teams in continuity. This will definitely decrease as Stoj and Petro are implemented into the rotation, but should remain in the top 100 overall. Right now, there are only 8 more continuous P5 teams than Illinois.
- Continuity has obviously plummeted in recent years. I created another table below showing continuity over the past decade.
- The top 10 teams are also more experienced and utilize the bench more than lower ranked teams, but these are less correlated with being in the top 10 then the former 2 stats.
- Illinois’ experience is accurate in terms of CBB but definitely understated with Mirk, Petrovic, and the Ivisic brothers all having “low” CBB experience.
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No, everyone didn't think that. Not even close.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I agree with you that this was far from some unanimous opinion. HOWEVER, I do remember after the upset of #2 Texas that several fans said we might have our most complete team since 2005, which sort of implies competing for a Final Four. We had truly looked great all year, with wins over a top 10 UCLA and now #2 Texas, both on a neutral court, and our only losses were close losses to UVA in Vegas and at Maryland. Obviously, things fell apart, lol...
Seemed a bit ambitious unless Kofi stayed. That would have changed the complexion and ceiling of that team tremendously.
(I got too excited when their were reports of Kofi and TSJ hanging out together in Chicago before Kofi left and TSJ signed)
I wanted those 2 to play together so bad...
Seriously? You've been on this board a while. There are fans that talk like that every other year. And not just our fans. Most teams have a few loud over-enthusiastic fans that spout crazy talk after a big win or two.
Unless you're a special team (eg 1989 or 2005 team) you have ups and downs through a full season. You beat some higher-rated teams, then you have a bad streak where you get beat by lower-ranked teams.
I’ve followed college basketball long enough to know being sure ANY team is going to the Final Four is foolish.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
I’m a sicko so I looked through the 2022-2023 season prediction thread:
www.illinoisloyalty.com
Not very many F4 predictions. A lot of 3-5 seed NCAAT predictions, which would be more like ~S16 expectations and that sounds about right going into that year with two top transfers (TJ and Mayer) to go along with a couple star freshmen (Skyy and Epps), but not a whole lot of returning production. Obviously, they never really clicked and underperformed compared to expectations (20-13, 9 seed, first round exit).
Season Predictions Thread
The Illini will have an undefeated season. If any game appears to end with the opponent having more points, we will claim victory anyway, saying the game was obviously 'rigged' and get the courts to order the NCAA to review the game tape doing a manual recount of the points scored, and point out...
www.illinoisloyalty.com
Not very many F4 predictions. A lot of 3-5 seed NCAAT predictions, which would be more like ~S16 expectations and that sounds about right going into that year with two top transfers (TJ and Mayer) to go along with a couple star freshmen (Skyy and Epps), but not a whole lot of returning production. Obviously, they never really clicked and underperformed compared to expectations (20-13, 9 seed, first round exit).
A bit misleading visually when the average continuity goes to 25 rather than 0.
But very interesting.Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Well, you would need to look through the postgame thread after the Texas win to analyze this.I’m a sicko so I looked through the 2022-2023 season prediction thread:
Season Predictions Thread
The Illini will have an undefeated season. If any game appears to end with the opponent having more points, we will claim victory anyway, saying the game was obviously 'rigged' and get the courts to order the NCAA to review the game tape doing a manual recount of the points scored, and point out...
Not very many F4 predictions. A lot of 3-5 seed NCAAT predictions, which would be more like ~S16 expectations and that sounds about right going into that year with two top transfers (TJ and Mayer) to go along with a couple star freshmen (Skyy and Epps), but not a whole lot of returning production. Obviously, they never really clicked and underperformed compared to expectations (20-13, 9 seed, first round exit).
More vague comments than I remembered, but several comments (including one from me) about that team having an extremely high ceiling, having so many options on offense, it looking like this could be a “special season,” etc. and at least a few clear references to a Final Four.
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Yeah fair point, I tend to agree with bar graphs, but with line graphs, as long as there aren't large irregular breaks in the y-axis, then going far outside one of the top or bottom limits makes it look a little sloppy.A bit misleading visually when the average continuity goes to 25 rather than 0.
With that said, to make the graph more interesting and relevant, I also added how Illinois tracks against the average over the past decade, and how the National Champion tracks against the average.
Since 2016, the only Champion that had less continuity than the national average was the 2023 UConn team. To @ElderIlliniFan 's point, the decrease in national average for this year is probably overstated because of how many teams play freshmen and try new lineups in the first games, but it wouldn't be surprising to see an additional 5-10% decrease this year from ~35% decrease from years prior.
Good stuff. I was going to suggest adding in final four teams and Illinois teams as reference points. This view is a better look at the value of continuity. Even though, on average, teams don't have as much continuity, it's a competitive advantage for those that do.
Also, do I see a pattern here??
2018: Below average continuity. Down year
2019: Below average continuity. Down year.
2020: Above average continuity. Good year.
2021: Above average continuity. Good year.
2022: Above average continuity. Good year.
2023: Below average continuity. Down year.
2024: Above average continuity. Good year.
2025: Below average continuity. Down year.
2026: Above average continuity....
Do any insiders have any info on if Illinois is apart of the initial 16? Def sucks we can't take that guys word for it lol
Not an insider by any means but considering Illinois being one of the larger (likely top 10) markets for CBB, I would be shocked if they weren't included.
The list below is from KenPom and it represents the amount (%) of subscribers that commit to a certain team. I know that it isn't a direct correlation to total market size but I would say it's a pretty good indicator. Illinois is #5 on this list out of all teams, and I went through the top 16 below.
Now it becomes a guessing game on which team they could replace us with to screw us over. I feel like Arizona, UCLA, and USC are good candidates.
*Cough* post 33 *Cough*I’m a sicko so I looked through the 2022-2023 season prediction thread:
Season Predictions Thread
The Illini will have an undefeated season. If any game appears to end with the opponent having more points, we will claim victory anyway, saying the game was obviously 'rigged' and get the courts to order the NCAA to review the game tape doing a manual recount of the points scored, and point out...
Not very many F4 predictions. A lot of 3-5 seed NCAAT predictions, which would be more like ~S16 expectations and that sounds about right going into that year with two top transfers (TJ and Mayer) to go along with a couple star freshmen (Skyy and Epps), but not a whole lot of returning production. Obviously, they never really clicked and underperformed compared to expectations (20-13, 9 seed, first round exit).
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