Illini Basketball 2025-2026

Status
Not open for further replies.
#301      
Iloveorangekoolaid
IlliniFan42 said:
I could be misinterpreting, but I think 2025 shows the "loophole" to this rule with Tennessee and Kentucky getting the 2 and 3 seeds in the same region because the SEC had so many good teams (Auburn, Alabama, and Florida ranked ahead of them). So there is a path, it's just unlikely and requires the Illini to be the fifth best team in the Big Ten, but they could get a higher than 5 seed. For example, if Purdue is a 1-seed and three other Big Ten teams are other high seeds, Illinois could be as high as a 2-seed and still find their way into Purdue's region.
Click to expand...
Yes, also A&M was a 4 seed with 1 seed Auburn. I just gave the short version. You need your conference to be really good at the top to run into these type of problems. Ie. 1 Purdue 1 Michigan 2 MSU 2 UCLA 3 Illinois for seeds. To be a 2 seed with 1 Purdue in the same region, we would need 3 other teams to be either 1/2 seeds which is nearly impossible. 3 seed could happen in the way I formatted but if we were the 5th top 4 seed from the B1G, we probably end up on the 4 line
 
#303      
Curbelo Fanboy
Fighter of the Nightman said:
There was some conversation recently about Purdue potentially pushing us out of the Chicago Region by virtue of them beating us out for a #1 seed, with the presumed logic being that the Committee wouldn't "punish" Purdue by putting Illinois in a Chicago Regional with them. However, I wanted to look if there was precedent for that. A few reminders for those unfamiliar:

--- Skip ahead if you already know all of this or don't care, lol... ---

1. While #1 seeds are obviously the best of the best, the Committee officially takes geographic advantage into account for the top 4 seeds in each reason, hence why these are historically called "protected seeds." So, while there might be a pecking order, the Committee is at least theoretically trying to put a #4 seed on a favorable path, just as they are with a #1 seed.

2. The NCAA Tournament locations are obviously determined in advance for the First Weekend (First and Second Rounds), Second Weekend (Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight) and the Final Four. While the Second Weekend locations (i.e., the "Regions") obviously correspond to the bracket, the First Weekend locations can be anywhere. As an example, Purdue and Illinois could both play their First Weekend games in St. Louis this year even if one is in the Chicago Region and another is in a different part of the bracket.

3. As is obvious, since the locations are pre-determined, the "home court advantage" a protected seed gets could vary wildly. While overall top seed Illinois' path was Indianapolis and then Chicago in 2005, overall top seed Virginia's path was Charlotte and (what would have been) Atlanta in 2019 ... all just luck of the draw for where the sites were that year.

4. Per my research, the Committee officially added the NET Rankings for the 2019 season. I'm not sure how much that changed the selection process as it relates to location (after all, they still clearly ranked teams within a seed line before that), but I'm including it just as an FYI.

--- My point as it relates to Illinois and the Chicago Region... ---

Back to the point, I wanted to look if there were any similar situations where a #1 seed got put in a Region where a lower-ranked protected seed had a better home court advantage ... as would be the case in the example scenario that the Committee put a #1 seed Purdue and #3 seed Illinois in Chicago this year. Since the Committee just has to sort of find a spot for NON-protected seeds (again, those #5 and below), I am limiting the examples to top 4 seeds only. After all, if Purdue is a #1 seed in the Chicago Region and we are (SUPER disappointingly!!) like a #7 seed and wind up in the same region, that isn't the Committee "rewarding" us alongside Purdue ... it's just an unlucky draw for Purdue.

Anyway, on to the list. Format is the year of the Tournament on top, the Region below that and then a list of the top 4 protected seeds in that region. Teams in green are clear examples of the lower protected seeds having an even better home court advantage there than the supposedly "more protected" higher seeds, thus giving us hope for sharing Chicago with #1 seed Purdue even as a #2 or #3 seed. For fun and to add some subjective element, I made the especially egregious examples in bold font, too.

2025 NCAA Tournament
Indianapolis, IN
#1 Houston
#2 Tennessee
#3 Kentucky
#4 Purdue

2024 NCAA Tournament
Los Angeles, CA
#1 North Carolina
#2 Arizona
#3 Baylor
#4 Alabama

2022 NCAA Tournament
Chicago, IL
#1 Kansas
#2 Auburn
#3 Wisconsin
#4 Providence

2019 NCAA Tournament
Washington, DC
#1 Duke
#2 Michigan State
#3 LSU
#4 Virginia Tech

Louisville, KY
#1 Virginia
#2 Tennessee
#3 Purdue
#4 Kansas State

Kansas City, MO
#1 North Carolina
#2 Kentucky
#3 Houston
#4 Kansas

2016 NCAA Tournament
Chicago, IL
#1 Virginia
#2 Michigan State
#3 Utah
#4 Iowa State

2015 NCAA Tournament
Los Angeles, CA
#1 Wisconsin
#2 Arizona
#3 Baylor
#4 North Carolina

2014 NCAA Tournament
Anaheim, CA
#1 Arizona
#2 Wisconsin
#3 Creighton
#4 San Diego State

Indianapolis, IN
#1 Wichita State
#2 Michigan
#3 Duke
#4 Louisville

2012 NCAA Tournament
S. Louis, MO
#1 North Carolina
#2 Kansas
#3 Georgetown
#4 Michigan

2011 NCAA Tournament
Newark, NJ
#1 Ohio State
#2 North Carolina
#3 Syracuse
#4 Kentucky

Anaheim, CA
#1 Duke
#2 San Diego State
#3 UConn
#4 Texas

2010 NCAA Tournament
Houston, TX
#1 Duke
#2 Villanova
#3 Baylor
#4 Purdue

2008 NCAA Tournament
Houston, TX
#1 Memphis
#2 Texas
#3 Stanford
#4 Pitt

2007 NCAA Tournament
San Antonio, TX
#1 Ohio State
#2 Memphis
#3 Texas A&M
#4 Virginia

2004 NCAA Tournament
St. Louis, MO
#1 Kentucky
#2 Gonzaga
#3 Georgia Tech
#4 Kansas

2003 NCAA Tournament
Albany, NY
#1 Oklahoma
#2 Wake Forest
#3 Syracuse
#4 Louisville

Minneapolis, MN
#1 Kentucky
#2 Pitt
#3 Marquette
#4 Dayton

2002 NCAA Tournament
Madison, WI
#1 Kansas
#2 Oregon
#3 Mississippi State
#4 Illinois

--- TL;DR ---

So in the 25 NCAA Tournaments since 2000 (with 2020 being cancelled), there are 20 examples of a 2/3/4 seed being put in a Region with a #1 seed, where the "worse" seed has a very clearly better home court advantage ... ala a scenario where a #2 seed Illini team is in Chicago with a #1 seed Purdue team this year. I will say that for the especially clear examples (e.g., #3 Syracuse being put in Albany, NY with #1 Oklahoma in 2003), there seems to at LEAST be a sort of pattern of wanting that team on the bottom half of the bracket (i.e., a #2 or #3 seed rather than a #4) so as to not make the #1 seed face them in front of a hostile crowd until the Elite Eight ... so let's shoot for that #2 seed or better!

Of course, the Committee could decide it would be unfair to add #2 Illinois to Chicago with #1 Purdue ... but there is a TON of precedent that they could also prioritize "protecting" a #2 seed Illini and adopting the attitude that if they don't face each other until the Elite Eight, it's fine.

P.S. Funny side note, but I left off the example of #1 Kansas in Las Vegas with #2 UCLA in 2023 because of how thoroughly we dominated the crowd in Vegas that very same year vs. a much closer UCLA. :ROFLMAO:
Click to expand...
I think I posted something which may have been what kicked this off. It's happened more than I would have guessed. My comment was more in regard to us not getting the chance to have "favored nation" status & be the 1 seed in Chicago without having to face Purdue. Doesn't do as much good to be in Chicago but have to play Purdue up there. Highly doubt NCAA would do that to Purdue if they are the overall 1. I was hoping for the 2005 scenario where we get teams from clearly outside the region in the regional (AZ, OK State & Boston College were the top 4 seeds. UW Milwaukee upset BC in round 2). Of course AZ gave us all that we could handle plus some. No doubt having the massive home advantage helped pull that game out.

I had forgotten about the 2002 scenario where we got to play in Madison as a 4 against Kansas as a 1. Clear home edge but didn't do us much good at the end of the day. That was around the time frame when the whole "protect seeds" concept started being a thing for the first weekend. And in true NCAA fashion, they screwed 3 seed Pitt by assigning them to Milwaukee where they had to play a 6 seed Wisconsin. To Pitt's credit they did win the game but it was another example of the NCAA enforcing their rules or procedures only when they see fit for their own benefit.
 
#304      
Fighter of the Nightman
^ Yeah, I really didn't disagree with what you said, I just wanted to look at the history of it! And, of course, I desperately want us to be in Chicago not only for the home court advantage but so I can attend my first ever NCAA Tournament game! FWIW, while Purdue indeed looks quite good ... plenty of opportunities for losses left on the schedule. I would imagine Purdue would be favored in almost all of these, but they have the following games left vs. top 25 KenPom teams or top 40 KenPom teams in true road games:

Dec. 6 - vs. #10 Iowa State
Dec. 20 - vs. #23 Auburn (Indianapolis, IN)
Jan. 3 - at #22 Wisconsin
Jan. 17 - at #25 USC ... who admittedly looks terrible, lol...
Jan. 20 - at #21 UCLA
Jan. 24 - vs. #7 Illinois
Jan. 27 - at #24 Indiana
Feb. 10 - at #39 Nebraska
Feb. 14 - at #30 Iowa
Feb. 17 - vs. #15 Michigan
Feb. 20 - vs. #24 Indiana
Feb. 26 - vs. #18 Michigan State
March 1 - at #34 Ohio State

I'm sort of in the "Let's discuss after the UConn and Tennessee games" mode, haha. If we win those two, we are as "on track" as Purdue is, IMO, and nothing to fret about. If we go 1-1, we might need some help from other teams, but we are still in decently good shape. If we lose both? Well, we can probably stop worrying about "catching" Purdue, barring some extraordinary circumstances!

I do think, though, that we should all be watching Purdue's trip to the West Coast in January. That is a long and tiring trip right before returning home to face Illinois and then immediately going to Indiana for a road game ... if PU happens to be in any sort of mid-season slump around that time, we could make up some serious ground!
 
#305      
RollChief
There has been a lot of talk about where this Illinois team is compared to teams of the past, what may or may not be weaknesses/symptomatic of larger problems, etc. and decided to make a quick part 2 to this post:

Week of 11/17 Games Thread

I hope the UC is full of orange. David will be playing against the best team and quickness to this point in his career. Go Illini. Beat them we will be in the top five.
www.illinoisloyalty.com www.illinoisloyalty.com

My goal here is to see if there is any trend in Illinois' teams' performances under BU over the past 5 seasons that could predict how this team will look going forward. To do this, I made a graph of the 3 day moving average of KenPom rank for each season since 2021 and put it into the same graph. See the graph below, followed by my notes:

1764111549811.jpeg


Observations:
  • This team arguably has the best start by net efficiency and is currently tracking most closely to the 2021-2022 team, which had a ton of expectations following the 1 seed season the year before and the retention of Kofi. The team came out of the gate ranked 4 but ultimately leveled out between 15 and 20.
  • Oddly enough, every team over the past 5 seasons ends up between 13-17 by December 15th, and this year’s team is tracking towards that spot currently. For whatever reason, this seems to be an inflection point for BU-coached teams.
  • Teams have gone in 2 directions after this point, with 2021-2022 being somewhat of a neutral spot:
    • a) Tons of variance, like in 2022-2023 or 2024-2025, or
    • b) They hit a stride, and continue to improve (with a few bumps), like in 2023-2024 and 2020-2021.
  • This team certainly has the talent to fall into category b., and if I had to make an honest floor for this team, I would say it is 2021-2022 based on observations from teams of the past.

The craziest thing to me is the consistent inflection at 12/15. I think we’ll know what this team looks like for real after Nebraska and Braggin’ Rights.
 
#306      
21ChampaignSt
RollChief said:
There has been a lot of talk about where this Illinois team is compared to teams of the past, what may or may not be weaknesses/symptomatic of larger problems, etc. and decided to make a quick part 2 to this post:

Week of 11/17 Games Thread

I hope the UC is full of orange. David will be playing against the best team and quickness to this point in his career. Go Illini. Beat them we will be in the top five.
www.illinoisloyalty.com www.illinoisloyalty.com

My goal here is to see if there is any trend in Illinois' teams' performances under BU over the past 5 seasons that could predict how this team will look going forward. To do this, I made a graph of the 3 day moving average of KenPom rank for each season since 2021 and put it into the same graph. See the graph below, followed by my notes:

View attachment 45249

Observations:
  • This team arguably has the best start by net efficiency and is currently tracking most closely to the 2021-2022 team, which had a ton of expectations following the 1 seed season the year before and the retention of Kofi. The team came out of the gate ranked 4 but ultimately leveled out between 15 and 20.
  • Oddly enough, every team over the past 5 seasons ends up between 13-17 by December 15th, and this year’s team is tracking towards that spot currently. For whatever reason, this seems to be an inflection point for BU-coached teams.
  • Teams have gone in 2 directions after this point, with 2021-2022 being somewhat of a neutral spot:
    • a) Tons of variance, like in 2022-2023 or 2024-2025, or
    • b) They hit a stride, and continue to improve (with a few bumps), like in 2023-2024 and 2020-2021.
  • This team certainly has the talent to fall into category b., and if I had to make an honest floor for this team, I would say it is 2021-2022 based on observations from teams of the past.

The craziest thing to me is the consistent inflection at 12/15. I think we’ll know what this team looks like for real after Nebraska and Braggin’ Rights.
Click to expand...
That is odd. I lean toward it being a coincidence but could have something to do with the schedule. We typically play some of our toughest games directly before 12/15 and some of our easiest directly after.

But based on this, I look at 1/1 as being a good indicator of where we'll end the season. Looks like most years on Jan 1 we're within +/- 5 spots of where we finish the year.
 
#307      
Cary67
Figure IL goes 2-3 in the non conference power games. Losses to Alabama, Tennessee, and UConn. Beat TT and Missouri.
 
#308      
IlliniFan42
Something I noticed about the current AP Top 25 is if you go down the list from the top, every team plays 6+ "real" non-con games until you get to Michigan State. We also would break the streak if we were in Michigan State's place, as we only play 5. It seems like the truly great teams have begun self-selecting by giving themselves tougher schedules. I know Underwood doesn't like MTEs, but the Players Era might be unavoidable when it locks down 32 teams starting next year.
 
#309      
lstewart53x3
IlliniFan42 said:
Something I noticed about the current AP Top 25 is if you go down the list from the top, every team plays 6+ "real" non-con games until you get to Michigan State. We also would break the streak if we were in Michigan State's place, as we only play 5. It seems like the truly great teams have begun self-selecting by giving themselves tougher schedules. I know Underwood doesn't like MTEs, but the Players Era might be unavoidable when it locks down 32 teams starting next year.
Click to expand...
Especially now that the Players Era is paying players to play in it:

www.nytimes.com

A college basketball tournament in Vegas pays players, and shakes up the sport

“These kids are like professional athletes,” said an industry expert. "They don’t care about swimming with dolphins. They wanna get paid.”
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
#317      
Cary67
Piotyr said:
Bunch of ninnies all of a sudden after the Illini lose a single game by 4.
Click to expand...
I never made a prediction for how the rest of the season would transpire only the next few weeks. Need to see if this group of Euros can gel, stay healthy(Tomi regain health and conditioning), and are they quick enough and physical enough on the defensive end against athletically superior teams. Perimeter defense from the bigs hasn't been great. Will they be better at pick and roll defense (fight through screens or just play drop coverage). Play more zone to cover m2m deficiencies? Can we rebound well.out of the zone. Lots of questions to be sorted out in the next few months. If anything Big 10 looks to have raised the floor somewhat with Iowa and Indiana looking better along with a Juwan Howardless Michigan.
 
#320      
FloridaMan
ugottabjoshinme said:
No such thing as a 4 seed ceiling if you do well in conference play.
Click to expand...
Been seeing this word a lot. This team hasn't proven anything yet. That is kind of the point of all of the posts lately lamenting our play the last 2 of 3 games given the tough non con games upcoming. The B10 is going to be rough sledding for most teams night in night out given the depth of the conference this year. Hopefully we round into shape and get a couple more non cons - we will need them - and win a bunch of conference games and are in position for a higher seed.
 
Last edited:
#321      
Fighter of the Nightman
FloridaMan said:
Been seeing this word a lot. This team hasn't proven anything yet. That is kind of the point of all of the posts lately lamenting our play the last 2 of 3 games given the tough non con games upcoming. The B10 is going to be rough sledding for most teams night in night out given the depth of the conference this year. Hopefully we round into shape and get a couple more non cons - we will need them - and win a bunch of conference games and are in position for a higher seed.
Click to expand...
I get your point, but beating Texas Tech isn’t “nothing,” even if they end up being a #6 seed type team … that’s still your Sweet Sixteen ticket if you’re a #3 seed, as we aspire to be.

I would say we’ve proven we are good, given beating TTU and playing with ‘Bama until the last minute. We haven’t proven we are great yet, but we’ll obviously have plenty of opportunities!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back