Illini Basketball 2025-2026

Status
Not open for further replies.
#26      
Fighter of the Nightman
BBlock24 said:
Uh oh. The dreaded early tip 😬
Click to expand...
My recollection was that the 11:00 am games tended to be more of a problem for our home games over the last few years, but I wanted to look up to be sure. Going back to 2022-2023...

Home Games at 11:00 am CST
2022-2023
L 59-74 vs. Penn State (ILL #17)

2023-2024
N/A

2024-2025
L 72-82 vs. USC (ILL #13)

Away Games at 11:00 am CST
2022-2023
L 68-71 at #14 Indiana
L 60-72 at Ohio State
L 71-76 at #5 Purdue

2023-2024
L 79-86 at #17 Tennessee (ILL #20)

2024-2025
L 78-80 at #12 Michigan State (ILL #19)

So while you can obviously just look at the record and draw the conclusion that we always lose these, it seems like there are two things that should be considered:

1) Even in the losses, the efforts for the away games were much better overall.
2) The 2022-2023 team was just sort of a disaster anyway, and they own over half of these losses all by themselves, lol.

BTW, if you go back to 2022, we pick up two very impressive road wins in 11:00 am games - W 74-57 at Indiana and W 79-74 at #19 Michigan State.
 
#27      
NarrowJ
Another fun one from EvanMiya.com:

1767641941562.png
 
#28      
IlliniFanTX
Fighter of the Nightman said:
My recollection was that the 11:00 am games tended to be more of a problem for our home games over the last few years, but I wanted to look up to be sure. Going back to 2022-2023...

Home Games at 11:00 am CST
2022-2023
L 59-74 vs. Penn State (ILL #17)

2023-2024
N/A

2024-2025
L 72-82 vs. USC (ILL #13)

Away Games at 11:00 am CST
2022-2023
L 68-71 at #14 Indiana
L 60-72 at Ohio State
L 71-76 at #5 Purdue

2023-2024
L 79-86 at #17 Tennessee (ILL #20)

2024-2025
L 78-80 at #12 Michigan State (ILL #19)

So while you can obviously just look at the record and draw the conclusion that we always lose these, it seems like there are two things that should be considered:

1) Even in the losses, the efforts for the away games were much better overall.
2) The 2022-2023 team was just sort of a disaster anyway, and they own over half of these losses all by themselves, lol.

BTW, if you go back to 2022, we pick up two very impressive road wins in 11:00 am games - W 74-57 at Indiana and W 79-74 at #19 Michigan State.
Click to expand...
Trent hit that deeeeep 3 to seal it. A masterpiece.
 
#29      
RollChief
Considering all the KenPom/stats talk, it seemed like an opportune time to update on our team's advanced stats for this season. The left column is our offense and the right column is our defense.

1767641456386.png


Looks like the team has had a pretty good response to the bad FT performance at Alabama. This team is now ranked 8th in FT%.

Kenpom recently added a new stat, Average 2-point attempted distance. Gear up to hear about this one a lot from commentators, as it's heavily correlated to coaching style, with a lot of the more analytical, midrange denouncing head coaches floating to the top. All of the top 10 offenses are ranked better than 100 in this category except Purdue (ranked 344), Gonzaga (ranked 203) , and Vanderbilt (ranked 304).

KenPom has an interesting article about it here: https://substack.com/home/post/p-183501012

There is also a clear correlation on the defensive side of forcing long 2's (presumably from a strong front court) and having high Defensive Efficiency (note that we're now ranked 21 in DE)

1767642645557.png
 
#31      
RockfordIllini
So I pulled up Z’s KenPom stats last night which confirmed the eye test. He is defensive rebounding at an elite level (top 40ish nationally), is one of the best shot blockers in the country (I think third nationally in block rate?), and is also very efficient offensively (top 70ish).

I know the thinking going into this year is we would get one more year of Tomi and 2 more of Z. Tomi’s struggles aside, if Z continues to do the 3 things the nba values in modern bigs (protect the rim, rebound, stretch the floor) at high level, at what point do NBA GMS decide he’s worth a second round pick or better, even if he’s not even averaging 20 minutes a game?

I recognize we have a long ways to go this season, and Z’s biggest knock has been consistency. So who knows if he falls off at some point. But if he sustains this level of production I think he’s an NBA draft pick. And I also think what he’s doing is sustainable barring injury.
 
#32      
blackdog
RockfordIllini said:
So I pulled up Z’s KenPom stats last night which confirmed the eye test. He is defensive rebounding at an elite level (top 40ish nationally), is one of the best shot blockers in the country (I think third nationally in block rate?), and is also very efficient offensively (top 70ish).

I know the thinking going into this year is we would get one more year of Tomi and 2 more of Z. Tomi’s struggles aside, if Z continues to do the 3 things the nba values in modern bigs (protect the rim, rebound, stretch the floor) at high level, at what point do NBA GMS decide he’s worth a second round pick or better, even if he’s not even averaging 20 minutes a game?

I recognize we have a long ways to go this season, and Z’s biggest knock has been consistency. So who knows if he falls off at some point. But if he sustains this level of production I think he’s an NBA draft pick. And I also think what he’s doing is sustainable barring injury.
Click to expand...

The biggest thing Z needed to improve was the mental side of the game and he has taken a huge leap this year. His positioning, patience, and effort have all improved tremendously even just from the early games. He keeps that up he definitely will be a want for some NBA teams.
 
#33      
BalloonsTheElephant
blackdog said:
The biggest thing Z needed to improve was the mental side of the game and he has taken a huge leap this year. His positioning, patience, and effort have all improved tremendously even just from the early games. He keeps that up he definitely will be a want for some NBA teams.
Click to expand...
Even just earlier this season he was very undisciplined on defense at times. He's really cleaned it up and it's showing.
 
#34      
HereSoIDontGetFined
blackdog said:
The biggest thing Z needed to improve was the mental side of the game and he has taken a huge leap this year. His positioning, patience, and effort have all improved tremendously even just from the early games. He keeps that up he definitely will be a want for some NBA teams.
Click to expand...
Agreed. He's been better than I thought he'd be. Sad that Tomi seems to have taken a step back for whatever reason.
 
#35      
Fighter of the Nightman
Obviously certain milestones matter more for a given individual season and to an individual fan. For example, in 2021 and 2022, I really wanted some Big Ten championship banners to add to the collection, but by 2024 pretty much all of the focus had shifted to getting that NCAAT Second Weekend monkey off of our backs. With that said, count me in the camp of fans who thinks everything you could accomplish in a season IS important; I will never understand the "nothing but the Tournament matters" folks, honestly. And while my main goal is a deep NCAAT run every year, I also want to achieve things like getting to 25+ wins, finishing the season ranked in the top 10/15 and especially winning the BTT or Big Ten regular season title.

So, here are the updated Big Ten standings after last night. I'm including each team's NET Ranking to perhaps provide some perspective of who the players might still be in a month.

#11 Nebraska: 4-0
#1 Michigan: 3-0
#6 Purdue: 3-0

#12 Michigan State: 3-1
#10 Illinois: 2-1
#14 Iowa: 2-1
#30 Indiana: 2-1
#40 UCLA: 2-1
#93 Minnesota: 2-1

#41 Ohio State: 2-2
#61 Washington: 1-2
#63 Wisconsin: 1-2

#44 USC: 1-3
#102 Oregon: 1-3
#181 Rutgers: 1-3
#82 Northwestern: 0-3
#132 Penn State: 0-3
#160 Maryland: 0-3

While it sucks we dropped a home game, it is also nice that we have bagged two road wins already in-conference. We are one of just four teams that already have two road wins in the league:
- OSU also has two road wins, but they have actually lost both home games.
- Purdue won at Rutgers and Wisconsin, the latter of which is looking surprisingly bad.
- Nebraska won at Ohio State and obviously at Illinois ... so they definitely are ahead of the curve in just about every way.

I would say that the main competitors for the Big Ten Championship and thus the highly likely double bye teams in the BTT are Michigan, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska and MSU. I think Iowa is good, but I need to see them win on the road. Not sold on anyone else. So, if we assume most of those teams can more or less protect home court from here on out, these are the road games each has left. Games against each other are highlighted.

#11 Nebraska: 4-0
Jan. 10 - at #30 Indiana
Jan. 17 - at #82 Northwestern
Jan. 24 - at #93 Minnesota
Jan. 27 - at #1 Michigan
Feb. 7 - at #181 Rutgers
Feb. 17 - at #14 Iowa
Feb. 28 - at #44 USC
March 3 - at #40 UCLA

---> Avg. NET = #60.6

#1 Michigan: 3-0
Jan. 6 - at #132 Penn State
Jan. 14 - at #61 Washington
Jan. 17 - at #102 Oregon
Jan. 30 - at #12 Michigan State
Feb. 8 - at #41 Ohio State
Feb. 11 - at #82 Northwestern
Feb. 17 - at #6 Purdue
Feb. 24 - at #93 Minnesota
Feb. 27 - at #10 Illinois
March 5 - at #14 Iowa

---> Avg. NET = #55.3

#6 Purdue: 3-0
Jan. 17 - at #44 USC
Jan. 30 - at #40 UCLA
Jan. 27 - at #30 Indiana
Feb. 1 - at #160 Maryland
Feb. 10 - at #11 Nebraska
Feb. 14 - at #14 Iowa
March 1 - at #41 Ohio State
March 4 - at #82 Northwestern
March 7 - at #63 Wisconsin

---> Avg. NET = #53.9

#12 Michigan State: 3-1
Jan. 17 - at #61 Washington
Jan. 20 - at #102 Oregon
Jan. 27 - at #181 Rutgers
Feb. 4 - at #93 Minnesota
Feb. 13 - at #63 Wisconsin
Feb. 26 - at #6 Purdue
March 1 - at #30 Indiana
March 8 - at #1 Michigan

---> Avg. NET = #67.1

#10 Illinois: 2-1
Jan. 11 - at #14 Iowa
Jan. 14 - at #82 Northwestern
Jan. 24 - at #6 Purdue
Feb. 1 - at #11 Nebraska
Feb. 7 - at #12 Michigan State
Feb. 18 - at #44 USC
Feb. 21 - at #40 UCLA
March 8 - at #160 Maryland

---> Avg. NET = #46.1

So yeah, we have by far the toughest road schedule left if you go by the opponents' average NET Ranking and the number of times we play on the road vs. the top of the league. While it's a tough draw, you can always look at it the opposite way, too ... these are incredible opportunities to (A) get a huge leg up over whatever top team we beat on the road and (B) obtain some truly marquee Quad 1 road wins for the Committee to consider as we make a push for a #2/3 seed!

BTW, here is just a simpler layout of when each of these teams play each other and/or already played.

#11 Nebraska: 4-0
Dec. 13 - W 83-80 at #10 Illinois
Jan. 2 - W 58-56 vs. #12 Michigan State
Jan. 27 - at #1 Michigan
Feb. 1 - vs. #10 Illinois
Feb. 10 - vs. #6 Purdue


#1 Michigan: 3-0
Jan. 30 - at #12 Michigan State
Feb. 17 - at #6 Purdue
Feb. 27 - at #10 Illinois
March 8 - vs. #12 Michigan State


#6 Purdue: 3-0
Jan. 24 - vs. #10 Illinois
Feb. 10 - at #11 Nebraska
Feb. 17 - vs. #1 Michigan
Feb. 26 - vs. #12 Michigan State


#12 Michigan State: 3-1
Jan. 2 - L 56-58 at #11 Nebraska
Jan. 30 - vs. #1 Michigan
Feb. 7 - vs. #10 Illinois
Feb. 26 - at #6 Purdue
March 8 - at #1 Michigan


#10 Illinois: 2-1
Dec. 13 - L 80-83 vs. #11 Nebraska
Jan. 24 - at #6 Purdue
Feb. 1 - at #11 Nebraska
Feb. 7 - at #12 Michigan State
Feb. 27 - vs. #1 Michigan

So yeah ... not going to try to figure out what we should root for this early in the season, haha. However, it would serve us in two ways if these other four teams start getting upset by the bottom and middle of the league. For one, it gives us a better chance at a Big Ten title and a higher BTT seed. However, and perhaps more importantly, we are going to be competing with all of these teams for a Chicago Regional (especially Michigan, Purdue and MSU) and a First Weekend location in St. Louis (especially Nebraska).
 
#36      
NarrowJ
HereSoIDontGetFined said:
Agreed. He's been better than I thought he'd be. Sad that Tomi seems to have taken a step back for whatever reason.
Click to expand...

Teams are keying on him + injury/health issues + decreased usage.

(decreased usage is good because it means we have more players this season who can complete possessions… there are 4 guys averaging 15, 15, 15, 13 ppg and another off the bench averaging 9 ppg)

That isn’t to say he’s not looked worse this season by eye test, because I agree that he has… whether that is physical or mental: who knows? As good as Wagler and Mirkovic have both been, per ON/OFF metrics we are still at our best when Boswell & Tomi are on the floor, so that is certainly worth noting.

I think if teams want to do what Penn State did and take Tomi out of the game with blitzes and digs and double teams, then they’ll have to bear the consequences of that which is either (a) giving up open looks to other guys and/or (b) deal with trying to run an offense with Z out there.

There was some chatter during the offseason that Tomi would average 18 & 10 this year and I think mere expectations are causing a lot of the worry. His minutes and usage are down this season, but he’s also had games where he’s just not looked very good at all too.
 
#42      
ImGonnaBeILL
Nice seeing Mikel Brown down closer where he belongs. The Field of 68 dipshits (insert Jeff Goodman) had Mikel Brown on their 2nd team All Freshman like a week ago 🤣🤣🤣

FWIW Wagler somehow wasn't on their 1st/2nd team. I know LaTulip had to be rolling his eyes with that list.

Mikel Brown's been nothing but a chucker this season to date. Now he's been out with mysterious injury for a month.

I actually really like Trey McKenney getting some love with Michigan. Guy is a stud (despite coming off the bench). Hoping he decides to go pro after 1 year as I think he'll run wild if he's back for another collegiate season.
 
#48      
NarrowJ
BWA said:
KJ definitely was on draft boards by the time he got to campus.
Click to expand...

Don't think so, I do recall that someone did find a singular preseason mock (maybe it was Bleacher Report? idk) that had him somewhere way, way down the list...

Either way, its 4 freshman in 2 seasons way outplaying their expectations based on preseason draft "stock"
 
#49      
Fighter of the Nightman
Only somewhat OT, but a win at Iowa would be our fourth straight Big Ten road win. That got me wondering how rare that was, so I looked up the longest Big Ten road winning streaks we have had since 2000. Each list shows the streak of wins and the loss that eventually broke the streak. I also only included streaks of 4 straight wins or longer.

2001-2002 to 2002-2003 | 5 Wins in a Row
Feb. 7, 2002 - W 68-60 at Michigan (ILL #21)
Feb. 12, 2002 - W 63-61 at Michigan State (ILL #18)
Feb. 23, 2002 - W 56-41 at Northwestern (ILL #16)
March 3, 2002 - W 67-66 at Minnesota (ILL #15)
Jan. 7, 2003 - W 76-70 at Minnesota (ILL #10)
Jan. 15, 2003 - L 61-68 at Iowa (ILL #8)

2003-2004 to 2004-2005 | 13 Wins in a Row
Feb. 3, 2004 - W 51-49 at Indiana
Feb. 8, 2004 - W 76-69 at Minnesota
Feb. 21, 2004 - W 66-58 at Penn State
Feb. 25, 2004 - W 78-59 at Iowa (ILL #23)
March 3, 2004 - W 81-79 in OT at Purdue (ILL #18)
March 7, 2004 - W 64-63 at Ohio State (ILL #18)
Jan. 8, 2005 - W 68-59 at Purdue (ILL #1)
Jan. 15, 2005 - W 78-66 at Northwestern (ILL #1)
Jan. 25, 2005 - W 75-65 at #18 Wisconsin (ILL #1)
Feb. 1, 2005 - W 81-68 at #12 Michigan State at xxx (ILL #1)
Feb. 8, 2005 - W 57-51 at Michigan (ILL #1)
Feb. 16, 2005 - W 83-63 at Penn State at xxx (ILL #1)
Feb. 19, 2005 - W 75-65 at Iowa (ILL #1)
March 6, 2005 - L 64-65 at Ohio State (ILL #1)

2020-2021 | 5 Wins in a Row
Dec. 23, 2020 - W 98-81 at Penn State (ILL #18)
Jan. 7, 2021 - W 81-56 at Northwestern (ILL #12)
Feb. 2, 2021 - W 75-71 in OT at Indiana (ILL #12)
Feb. 12, 2021 - W 77-72 in OT at Nebraska (ILL #6)
Feb. 20, 2021 - W 94-63 at Minnesota (ILL #5)
Feb. 23, 2021 - L 72-81 at Michigan State (ILL #5)

2020-2021 to 2021-2022 | 6 Wins in a Row
Feb. 27, 2021 - W 74-69 at #23 Wisconsin (ILL #5)
March 2, 2021 - W 76-53 at #2 Michigan (ILL #4)
March 6, 2021 - W 73-68 at #7 Ohio State (ILL #4)
Dec. 6, 2021 - W 87-83 at Iowa
Jan. 4, 2022 - W 76-53 at Minnesota
Jan. 11, 2022 - W 81-71 at Nebraska (ILL #25)
Jan. 21, 2022 - L 65-81 at Maryland (ILL #17)

2024-2025 to 2025-2026 | 3 Wins in a Row So Far
March 2, 2025 - W 93-73 at #15 Michigan
Dec. 9, 2025 - W 88-80 at Ohio State (ILL #13)
Jan. 3, 2026 - W 73-65 at Penn State (ILL #20)
Jan. 11, 2026 - #16 Illinois at #19 Iowa

So yeah, it's pretty rare to go on winning streaks of Big Ten road games, and it is incredibly rare to win 4 straight! We should be more appreciative of how good we have been on the road in the Underwood Era, with the 3-game stretch to end 2021 remaining one of my favorite regular season Illini memories. Needless to say, the streak to end 2004 and into 2005 was absolutely crazy and unlikely to ever be replicated.

Let's beat Rutgers, go get a win at Iowa and go on a real winning streak here!

P.S. Regarding the "winning streak," we are a buzzer beater 3-pointer vs. Nebraska away from being on a 6-game winning streak, with a serious possibility of turning that streak into 11 before heading to West Lafayette. I was as annoyed as anyone with the slow start vs. Nebraska, but we should try to remember that!
 
#50      
Guest
Just curious. I was wondering if Toni Bilic has arrived on campus and is practicing, etc., with the team. And how he looks. I know that he is going to be focusing on strength training and development for the remainder of this season, and will not participate in games, but, like I said, just curious if he is here, practicing, and how he looks so far.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back