Yep. Efficiency stats, Net RTg, aka scoring margin, is the best indicator of outcomes.
Illini Basketball 2025-2026
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Also: NET is resume and we're ahead of Nebraska in NET
We could, but we don't. This team seems really loathe to push the ball in transition. Even when we have numbers it seems we prefer to run our sets. Over much of the last decade we've had an Ayo or TSJ who were absolute killers in transition. We don't have that dude right now.
Almost as anomalous as our slow pace is that fact that our assist percentage is a very pedestrian 50.5%, tied for 228th in the country. Considering how efficient the offense is, that really surprises me.
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2026/stats-adv-assist-percent
1. We probably get a lot more points from offensive rebounds than other teams and those are less likely to have assists, 2. Wagler, our top scorer, has just gotten better and better at scoring off the dribble as the season has progressed.
Some on here have postulated that the reason for the low assist rate is because our offense "match up hunts". Which may lead to fewer assists.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Well, we are officially heading to the Illini game in Evanston next week. We attended in 2019 (L), 2020 (W), 2022 (W) and last year (L) ... so I would like to get back to a winning record! I saw the game is sold out (NU's only sellout of the year) and tickets on StubHub were expensive, so I am curious how many Illini fans will be in attendance. Total back-of-the-napkin guesses for the games I have been at would be...
2018-19: Lower bowl 70/30 Northwestern. Upper bowl 55/45 Illinois.
2019-20: Lower bowl 60/40 Illinois. Upper bowl 80/20 Illinois. This year was ridiculous, lol.
2021-22: Lower bowl 55/45 Northwestern. Upper bowl 65/35 Illinois.
2024-25: Lower bowl 70/30 Northwestern. Upper bowl 60/40 Illinois.
I didn't calculate a weighted average or anything, but it seems like it has ranged from 55/45 Northwestern to nearly 70/30 Illinois, mostly depending on how well the NU students show up and how many NU season ticketholders sell to Illini fans. Hoping we can bring a big crowd!
2018-19: Lower bowl 70/30 Northwestern. Upper bowl 55/45 Illinois.
2019-20: Lower bowl 60/40 Illinois. Upper bowl 80/20 Illinois. This year was ridiculous, lol.
2021-22: Lower bowl 55/45 Northwestern. Upper bowl 65/35 Illinois.
2024-25: Lower bowl 70/30 Northwestern. Upper bowl 60/40 Illinois.
I didn't calculate a weighted average or anything, but it seems like it has ranged from 55/45 Northwestern to nearly 70/30 Illinois, mostly depending on how well the NU students show up and how many NU season ticketholders sell to Illini fans. Hoping we can bring a big crowd!
One of things I love about their stadium is the camera faces the opposing team crowd because the seats under the camera are reserved and usually pretty empty.
It’s my biggest gripe with the team at the current moment.
I was expecting Petro to be that guy when he committed. Shows you how much I know.
I agree that there isn't an Ayo or TJ, but I think Stoja, Boz, and Big Z might be pretty good on the break. But, things going as they are, it's hard to argue that it needs to change.
Iowa is top 20 on defense? That's certainly bucking recent tradition.
Fran's gone.
Tevo
- Wilmette, IL
I think our biggest impediment to transition offense is our lack of steals. When we get a live ball steal, Boswell and Stojakovic especially are willing to take off running. We just don't get many. And then we have some big minute guys who just aren't especially fast -- like the Brothers Ivisic, Merk, Ben, Jake, Wagler, etc. We could TRY to do more transition, but it might just lead to more misses or bad outcomes on the other end.
They aren’t there yet, but to me it needs to be Bam and Stoj.
Agreed...one thing we do have is a balanced team that's getting better game by game and identifying their places and minutes...also small sample but defense does seem better since Nebby game...
That is true that we don't have a real transition player nor passer.
Drawing off of memory (notoriously bad), so please take this with a spoonful of salt and fact check, but I believe we checked out similar in offensive efficiency at this point last year. We looked great coming off some big wins where we hit a lot of shots (e.g., Oregon). If those shots don’t fall from outside, the whole equation changes. We’re efficient when we hit the shots we will always take (lots of 3s namely), but we aren’t a very diverse offense. In other words, I’d categorize our offense as theoretically efficient (in reality right now) but not resilient. If option A fails, option B seemingly doesn’t exist.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
There was some concern early on about our free throw shooting. We are now shooting 79.7% on the season, which is good for #4 in the country. If we finish the season there, it would be a new Illinois basketball record. Last year was #2 all time at 76.2%. The 04-05 team shot 72.8%.
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I think the women are currently leading the nation in ft% or recently... we're at around 82ish...is there something in the water...?
More likely the coaching than the water. Since this staff has been here we've shot .756, .795, .793 and .831.
Battle89
- Cary-Grove, the better Trojan team
Went last year but have a work conflict this year
I will be there. Be carefuly of the parking restricitions around the Stadium.
Bigtex
- DFW
Lot of iso offense
If communication was one of the big problems, as Underwood and LaTulip both have said, perhaps the more this group plays together the better it gets. Except for a few wide-open threes and a couple layups down the stretch, the Illini made Iowa really work to get open looks.
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