Illini Basketball 2025-2026

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Illini Basketball 2025-2026 (24-7, 15-5)

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Baker-Mazara available for next year and his 8th college basketball season after quitting/kicked off the team at USC?

Winding down.
I wish I could say that Coach really has them playing the best that they have all season. I'm excited about our chances in the NCAA Tourney. I can't.
Maybe he will get them going again. Maybe he will come up with a counter to the teams that are playing us physical and taking us out of our pretty style.

Grandpa said:

Winding down.
I wish I could say that Coach really has them playing the best that they have all season. I'm excited about our chances in the NCAA Tourney. I can't.
Maybe he will get them going again. Maybe he will come up with a counter to the teams that are playing us physical and taking us out of our pretty style.

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I get the frustration, but in the month of February they were still a top 10 team metrics wise. It seems a lot worse than it really is IMO. I am more concerned with defensive metrics taking a big slide as the season goes on for 3 straight years.

Illinialldayeveryday said:

I get the frustration, but in the month of February they were still a top 10 team metrics wise. It seems a lot worse than it really is IMO. I am more concerned with defensive metrics taking a big slide as the season goes on for 3 straight years.

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In 1997 we'd all be screaming that we lost four of six heading into the postseason. Now we can see that while the results haven't been what we wanted, the metrics still show we are performing well.

And really, I don't mind the Michigan loss, but the UCLA loss is going to end up being the worst loss we had all season. The absolute ref jobs against MSU and Wisconsin are up there as well, but losing to UCLA when you're up 23 at one point has cost you a couple spots on the S curve and also a much easier road in the B1G Tournament. We have to beat a desperate and somewhat reeling Purdue then follow it up with Michigan. Now I'm hoping we can just go 1-1.

BalloonsTheElephant said:

In 1997 we'd all be screaming that we lost four of six heading into the postseason. Now we can see that while the results haven't been what we wanted, the metrics still show we are performing well.

And really, I don't mind the Michigan loss, but the UCLA loss is going to end up being the worst loss we had all season. The absolute ref jobs against MSU and Wisconsin are up there as well, but losing to UCLA when you're up 23 at one point has cost you a couple spots on the S curve and also a much easier road in the B1G Tournament. We have to beat a desperate and somewhat reeling Purdue then follow it up with Michigan. Now I'm hoping we can just go 1-1.

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Letting the comeback happen was inexcusable...

My biggest gripe is how we really haven't won a close game (1 -2 possession) it's really hard to UCONN 2024 your way through the tourney.

Purdue win is the closest game we won off the top of my head.

BrownTown said:

Letting the comeback happen was inexcusable...

My biggest gripe is how we really haven't won a close game (1 -2 possession) it's really hard to UCONN 2024 your way through the tourney.

Purdue win is the closest game we won off the top of my head.

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We have. The games at Purdue, at Ohio St., at Nebraska, Texas Tech. Minnesota , at Iowa were all less than 10 point games, 2 score games until those teams have to start fouling in the last minute or half minute. We end up winning those games by 4-10 points due to those teams fouling out of desperation.. This misnomer that we can't win close games is grossly exaggerated.

No real point here, but I wanted to look at how we did in the same general date range in previous seasons compared to this current 2-4 stretch.

2026
Feb. 7 - L 82-85 in OT at #10 Michigan State
Feb. 10 - L 90-92 in OT vs. Wisconsin
Feb. 15 - W 71-51 vs. Indiana
Feb. 18 - W 101-65 at USC
Feb. 21 - L 94-95 in OT at UCLA
Feb. 27 - L 70-84 vs. #3 Michigan

2025
Feb. 5 - L 73-82 at Rutgers
Feb. 8 - W 95-74 at Minnesota
Feb. 11 - W 83-78 vs. UCLA
Feb. 15 - L 65-79 vs. #11 Michigan State
Feb. 18 - L 74-95 at #11 Wisconsin
Feb. 22 - L 67-110 vs. #3 Duke (New York, NY)
Feb. 25 - W 81-61 vs. Iowa

2024
Feb. 4 - W 87-84 in OT vs. Nebraska
Feb. 10 - L 80-88 at Michigan State
Feb. 13 - W 97-68 vs. Michigan
Feb. 17 - W 85-80 at Maryland
Feb. 21 - L 89-90 at Penn State
Feb. 24 - W 95-85 vs. Iowa
Feb. 28 - W 105-97 vs. Minnesota

2023
Feb. 4 - L 79-81 at Iowa
Feb. 11 - W 69-60 vs. #24 Rutgers
Feb. 14 - L 81-93 at Penn State
Feb. 18 - L 68-71 at #14 Indiana
Feb. 20 - W 78-69 vs. Minnesota
Feb. 23 - W 66-62 vs. #21 Northwestern
Feb. 26 - L 60-72 at Ohio State

2022
Feb. 5 - W 74-57 at Indiana
Feb. 8 - L 68-84 at #3 Purdue
Feb. 13 - W 73-66 vs. Northwestern
Feb. 16 - L 59-70 at Rutgers
Feb. 19 - W 79-74 at #19 Michigan State
Feb. 24 - L 83-86 vs. #22 Ohio State
Feb. 27 - W 93-85 at Michigan

2021
Feb. 6 - W 75-60 vs. #19 Wisconsin
Feb. 12 - W 77-72 in OT at Nebraska
Feb. 16 - W 73-66 vs. Northwestern
Feb. 20 - W 94-63 at Minnesota
Feb. 23 - L 72-81 at Michigan State
Feb. 25 - W 86-70 vs. Nebraska

It goes without saying that every season is different and these schedules are obviously not apples to apples by any means, so take this all worth a grain of salt. However, I do find it interesting that each team (at least IMO) had one loss that sort of threw the goal we were on track for up in the air. Here are my subjective picks for those losses.

2021
Feb. 23 - L 72-81 at Michigan State

2022
Feb. 16 - L 59-70 at Rutgers

2023
Feb. 14 - L 81-93 at Penn State

2024
Feb. 21 - L 89-90 at Penn State

2025
Feb. 15 - L 65-79 vs. #11 Michigan State

2026
Feb. 21 - L 94-95 in OT at UCLA

- In 2021, the MSU loss made me wonder if we'd still be able to finish a top 10 team with a top 2 seed given that Ayo was out ... needless to say, we finished the year with an epic run and got a #1 seed and BTT championship banner. The Loyola loss was a stunner, of course, but this group showed remarkable toughness down the stretch and played like an angry team that was hungry to prove itself.
- In 2022, that Rutgers loss made me question if our ranking was too based off of "what we returned" and if this squad was more of a #6 seed-type team. Other than a heartbreaking loss to OSU, we finished the regular season strong and won a Big Ten championship and earned a #4 seed. We were a bit banged up by the NCAA Tournament, but overall I think they responded quite well to the "backs against the wall" situation.
- In 2023, the loss at PSU (a totally uninspiring effort vs. a team who had punked us in Champaign earlier that year) officially had me questioning if we had any hope of ending up above the dreaded #8/#9 seed line. We would have a few good games down the stretch, but we proved who we really were in earning our #9 seed and First Round exit. The loss at PSU effectively lit zero fire, and it was just salt in the wound that we lost to them in our first BTT game toe seal our fate as a #8/#9 seed.
- In 2024, I remember SO distinctly turning to my wife after that epic collapse at PSU and saying, "I think we just played ourselves into being a #4 seed" ... and any Illini fan is rightfully a bit traumatized by the #4 seed path, given our history. Thankfully, the team responded incredibly well and wound up winning a BTT championship and earning a #3 seed that led to an Elite Eight run.
- Lastly, in 2025, I hoped that that home loss to MSU where we absolutely FOLDED down the stretch was going to FINALLY be the thing that fired these guys up to the point that we could regain our level of play from earlier in the year like when we smoked Oregon and Indiana on the road. There were some bright spots down the stretch like finally beating Purdue and smoking Michigan in Ann Arbor, but you always knew that "back to Earth" game was coming, and it came vs. Maryland in the BTT and Kentucky in the NCAAs.

So, while I understand I might be spinning a narrative where there isn't one here, I am a little disappointed that the UCLA loss didn't lead to a particularly extra-hyped Illini effort vs. Michigan. The Wolverines looked fantastic, but our effort was part of the problem. Our two most successful teams (2021 and 2024) both reached a point where I would argue their mental outlook/sense of urgency and motivation regarding the home stretch of the season received a fundamental boost ... and if this team is going to go on the run we are all hoping for, I think we will see a return to form as far as intensity and focus in next couple games. If we come out and beat Oregon but look pretty "meh" doing it, I don't think anyone should criticize posters for being worried. We need to get in March Madness form quickly.

BalloonsTheElephant said:

In 1997 we'd all be screaming that we lost four of six heading into the postseason. Now we can see that while the results haven't been what we wanted, the metrics still show we are performing well.

And really, I don't mind the Michigan loss, but the UCLA loss is going to end up being the worst loss we had all season. The absolute ref jobs against MSU and Wisconsin are up there as well, but losing to UCLA when you're up 23 at one point has cost you a couple spots on the S curve and also a much easier road in the B1G Tournament. We have to beat a desperate and somewhat reeling Purdue then follow it up with Michigan. Now I'm hoping we can just go 1-1.

Click to expand...

I get where you are coming from, but I have more issues with losing at home against teams you should handle. We were up by 12 with under 9 minutes to go (97.6% chance of winning by ESPN) against Wisconsin. That game getting away from us was more frustrating than what happened in LA, IMO. We need to build the House of Paign being an intimidating place to play, and home losses like what we had against Wisconsin really hurt that narrative. To be fair, the UCLA game was also hurtful because it stopped the momentum gained against IU and USC.

Crazy to think how important two Quad 3 games to close out the season will be for this team to get their head on straight after the 11 game tear we went on after the Nebraska loss.

Just for some perspective, here's a list of the top 50 college basketball coaches somebody put out six months ago. BU clocks in at #19:



For fun, and perspective, I made a table listing these coaches current records, and current seed line per Bracketmatrix.com:


*Retired before season started, left program in shambles

the juiceman cometh said:

Just for some perspective, here's a list of the top 50 college basketball coaches somebody put out six months ago. BU clocks in at #19:

View attachment 47947

For fun, and perspective, I made a table listing these coaches current records, and current seed line per Bracketmatrix.com:

Rank	Coach	Team	Current Record	Projected Seed
1	Dan Hurley	UConn	27-3	1
2	Kelvin Sampson	Houston	24-5	2
3	Mark Few	Gonzaga	28-3	4
4	Rick Pitino	St. John's	23-6	6
5	Matt Painter	Purdue	22-7	3
6	Bill Self	Kansas	20-6	3
7	Nate Oats	Alabama	22-7	4
8	Bruce Pearl*	Auburn	15-14	OUT
9	Jon Scheyer	Duke	28-2	1
10	Todd Golden	Florida	23-6	2
11	Scott Drew	Baylor	15-14	OUT
12	Tom Izzo	Michigan State	24-5	3
13	Chris Beard	Ole Miss	12-17	WAY  OUT
14	Rick Barnes	Tennessee	20-9	5
15	Tommy Lloyd	Arizona	27-2	1
16	Brian Dutcher	San Diego St.	19-9	OUT
17	Dusty May	Michigan	27-2	1
18	John Calipari	Arkansas	21-8	5
19	Brad Underwood	Illinois	22-7	2
20	Greg McDermott	Creighton	14-16	OUT
21	T.J. Otzelberger	Iowa State	24-5	2
22	Mick Cronin	UCLA	19-10	10
23	Grant McCasland	Texas Tech	22-7	3
24	Eric Musselman	USC	18-11	OUT
25	Dana Altman	Oregon	11-18	OUT
26	Shaka Smart	Marquette	10-19	OUT
27	Sean Miller	Texas	18-11	10
28	Mark Pope	Kentucky	19-10	6
29	Will Wade	NC State	19-11	9
30	Randy Bennett	Saint Mary's	27-4	7
31	Greg Gard	Wisconsin	20-9	7
32	Kevin Young	BYU	20-9	6
33	Pat Kelsey	Louisville	20-9	6
34	Ben McCollum	Iowa	20-9	8
35	Kevin Willard	Villanova	22-7	7
36	Buzz Williams	Maryland	11-18	OUT
37	Brad Brownell	Clemson	21-8	8
38	Hubert Davis	North Carolina	23-6	5
39	Chris Collins	Northwestern	13-16	OUT
40	Ryan Odom	VCU	22-7	OUT
41	Chris Jans	Mississippi St.	13-16	OUT
42	Jamie Dixon	TCU	19-10	11
43	Darian DeVries	Indiana	17-12	11
44	Richard Pitino	New Mexico	22-7	11
45	Mark Byington	Vanderbilt	22-7	5
46	Fred Hoiberg	Nebraska	25-4	3
47	Leon Rice	Boise State	18-11	OUT
48	Ed Cooley	Georgetown	13-16	OUT
49	Kyle Smith	Stanford	18-11	OUT
50	Niko Medved	Minnesota	14-15	OUT

*Retired before season started, left program in shambles

Click to expand...

If Baylor, SDSU, and Creighton don't end up making the tournament, then Illinois would be one of five remaining schools to make the tournament every year of the 2020s, including the projected field in 2020.

Michigan St., Gonzaga, Houston, and Kansas are the others.

One interesting tidbit:

Illinois 2pt percentage allowed last season was 14th in the nation. This year we're 31st.

Now, 31st isn't terrible, but to me that's pretty surprising considering all we added was an elite rim protector in Z ?

Last two games we've allowed 80 points in the paint; so I'm guessing that may have tanked the numbers a bit.

Fly Illini Fly! said:

One interesting tidbit:

Illinois 2pt percentage allowed last season was 14th in the nation. This year we're 31st.

Now, 31st isn't terrible, but to me that's pretty surprising considering all we added was an elite rim protector in Z ?

Last two games we've allowed 80 points in the paint; so I'm guessing that may have tanked the numbers a bit.

Click to expand...

Opposing 3pt% down significantly though. Shift in defensive priorities/ philosophy?

the juiceman cometh said:

Opposing 3pt% down significantly though. Shift in defensive priorities/ philosophy?

Click to expand...

It's what I figured originally. However, this is what Brad said after our Nebraska win:


Seems to have been the opposite stats wise.

Our 3pt defense has gone from 159 last year to 81 this year.

2pt defense from 14th to 31st.

It's a bit unideal (and honestly, quite surprising) to see both UCLA and scUM dominate us inside (at will).

If we win the last two, my season prediction will have been dead on up to this point (outside of conference seeding, but who cares about that). Which means we’re going to make the E8. Enjoy

the juiceman cometh said:

Just for some perspective, here's a list of the top 50 college basketball coaches somebody put out six months ago. BU clocks in at #19:

View attachment 47947

For fun, and perspective, I made a table listing these coaches current records, and current seed line per Bracketmatrix.com:

Rank	Coach	Team	Current Record	Projected Seed
1	Dan Hurley	UConn	27-3	1
2	Kelvin Sampson	Houston	24-5	2
3	Mark Few	Gonzaga	28-3	4
4	Rick Pitino	St. John's	23-6	6
5	Matt Painter	Purdue	22-7	3
6	Bill Self	Kansas	20-6	3
7	Nate Oats	Alabama	22-7	4
8	Bruce Pearl*	Auburn	15-14	OUT
9	Jon Scheyer	Duke	28-2	1
10	Todd Golden	Florida	23-6	2
11	Scott Drew	Baylor	15-14	OUT
12	Tom Izzo	Michigan State	24-5	3
13	Chris Beard	Ole Miss	12-17	WAY  OUT
14	Rick Barnes	Tennessee	20-9	5
15	Tommy Lloyd	Arizona	27-2	1
16	Brian Dutcher	San Diego St.	19-9	OUT
17	Dusty May	Michigan	27-2	1
18	John Calipari	Arkansas	21-8	5
19	Brad Underwood	Illinois	22-7	2
20	Greg McDermott	Creighton	14-16	OUT
21	T.J. Otzelberger	Iowa State	24-5	2
22	Mick Cronin	UCLA	19-10	10
23	Grant McCasland	Texas Tech	22-7	3
24	Eric Musselman	USC	18-11	OUT
25	Dana Altman	Oregon	11-18	OUT
26	Shaka Smart	Marquette	10-19	OUT
27	Sean Miller	Texas	18-11	10
28	Mark Pope	Kentucky	19-10	6
29	Will Wade	NC State	19-11	9
30	Randy Bennett	Saint Mary's	27-4	7
31	Greg Gard	Wisconsin	20-9	7
32	Kevin Young	BYU	20-9	6
33	Pat Kelsey	Louisville	20-9	6
34	Ben McCollum	Iowa	20-9	8
35	Kevin Willard	Villanova	22-7	7
36	Buzz Williams	Maryland	11-18	OUT
37	Brad Brownell	Clemson	21-8	8
38	Hubert Davis	North Carolina	23-6	5
39	Chris Collins	Northwestern	13-16	OUT
40	Ryan Odom	VCU	22-7	OUT
41	Chris Jans	Mississippi St.	13-16	OUT
42	Jamie Dixon	TCU	19-10	11
43	Darian DeVries	Indiana	17-12	11
44	Richard Pitino	New Mexico	22-7	11
45	Mark Byington	Vanderbilt	22-7	5
46	Fred Hoiberg	Nebraska	25-4	3
47	Leon Rice	Boise State	18-11	OUT
48	Ed Cooley	Georgetown	13-16	OUT
49	Kyle Smith	Stanford	18-11	OUT
50	Niko Medved	Minnesota	14-15	OUT

*Retired before season started, left program in shambles

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Great post! Only Tommy Lloyd is ranked higher than BU and hasn’t made a FF as a head coach. We’re getting there!

21ChampaignSt said:

If Baylor, SDSU, and Creighton don't end up making the tournament, then Illinois would be one of five remaining schools to make the tournament every year of the 2020s, including the projected field in 2020.

Michigan St., Gonzaga, Houston, and Kansas are the others.

Click to expand...

Not bad company! I was thinking the other day that there really are two huge obstacles that lead to Coach Underwood (and by extension, our program) not getting anywhere near the recognition that he (we) should.

(1) The Loyola loss. Something crazy like 20% of brackets had our Illini winning it all that year, and for good reason. That Second Round loss put SUCH a stain on that great season to outsiders, and it kickstarted a narrative among our haters that we "couldn't make the Second Weekend."

(2) The 2023 fiasco. Even though we still won 20 games in the regular season and made the NCAA Tournament, 2023 had so much potential to loudly declare that "Illinois doesn't rebuild, it reloads." We got some rather shiny portal additions even after losing so much from the 2020-2022 era, and we were right back to being in the preseason top 25. With all of the drama of the 2023 locker room and the season giving our haters ammo that we were coming back down to Earth without Ayo and Kofi, it really did sort of act as a black eye as far as our program's consistency.

If we even just got upset in the Sweet Sixteen in 2021 and had a 2025-level season in 2023 (i.e., #6 seed and Second Round loss), I think we'd all be shocked how much more highly Illini basketball and Underwood would be thought of ... JMO. A deep run this year decidedly would change the narrative of his tenure, though, in a great way!!

Fighter of the Nightman said:

Not bad company! I was thinking the other day that there really are two huge obstacles that lead to Coach Underwood (and by extension, our program) not getting anywhere near the recognition that he (we) should.

(1) The Loyola loss. Something crazy like 20% of brackets had our Illini winning it all that year, and for good reason. That Second Round loss put SUCH a stain on that great season to outsiders, and it kickstarted a narrative among our haters that we "couldn't make the Second Weekend."

(2) The 2023 fiasco. Even though we still won 20 games in the regular season and made the NCAA Tournament, 2023 had so much potential to loudly declare that "Illinois doesn't rebuild, it reloads." We got some rather shiny portal additions even after losing so much from the 2020-2022 era, and we were right back to being in the preseason top 25. With all of the drama of the 2023 locker room and the season giving our haters ammo that we were coming back down to Earth without Ayo and Kofi, it really did sort of act as a black eye as far as our program's consistency.

If we even just got upset in the Sweet Sixteen in 2021 and had a 2025-level season in 2023 (i.e., #6 seed and Second Round loss), I think we'd all be shocked how much more highly Illini basketball and Underwood would be thought of ... JMO. A deep run this year decidedly would change the narrative of his tenure, though, in a great way!!

Click to expand...

Right, and this is how I mostly made my peace with 2021. If we’d lost in the S16, it still would have stung but it wouldn’t have been quite the gut punch. And based on KenPom, Loyola probably should have been a 4 or a 5 seed that we shouldn’t have had to play in the round of 32, so in my head it’s not quite worth dwelling on what was the equivalent of a S16 loss.

Houston in 2022 too. If we’d gotten a reasonable draw good chance we make the S16 even with how banged up we were. Even without a F4, if we’d had 2 S16s and an E8 in a 4 year span our national perception is noticeably higher.

So you still have to win the games, it’s not like we’ve had the out of nowhere embarrassing losses like Purdue had before their F4, even if they’ve made a lot more second weekend than us. An amazing but true fact, for a 3 year stretch Purdue beat the likes of Duke, Baylor etc you name it and their only 3 non con losses were to North Texas, St Peters and Farleigh Dickinson.

EDIT: And we are certainly not playing our best ball at the moment but if we can just firm up our defense a little bit I still like our chances for a deep run. Outside 4-5 teams at the top we can find mismatches to exploit against most teams. Between Keaton, our stretch bigs, Kyland and Andrej slashing, just feels like we have a lot more levers we can pull than in years past. There’s a reason we have a historically good offense.

Fighter of the Nightman said:

Not bad company! I was thinking the other day that there really are two huge obstacles that lead to Coach Underwood (and by extension, our program) not getting anywhere near the recognition that he (we) should.

(1) The Loyola loss. Something crazy like 20% of brackets had our Illini winning it all that year, and for good reason. That Second Round loss put SUCH a stain on that great season to outsiders, and it kickstarted a narrative among our haters that we "couldn't make the Second Weekend."

(2) The 2023 fiasco. Even though we still won 20 games in the regular season and made the NCAA Tournament, 2023 had so much potential to loudly declare that "Illinois doesn't rebuild, it reloads." We got some rather shiny portal additions even after losing so much from the 2020-2022 era, and we were right back to being in the preseason top 25. With all of the drama of the 2023 locker room and the season giving our haters ammo that we were coming back down to Earth without Ayo and Kofi, it really did sort of act as a black eye as far as our program's consistency.

If we even just got upset in the Sweet Sixteen in 2021 and had a 2025-level season in 2023 (i.e., #6 seed and Second Round loss), I think we'd all be shocked how much more highly Illini basketball and Underwood would be thought of ... JMO. A deep run this year decidedly would change the narrative of his tenure, though, in a great way!!

Click to expand...

Just gotta keep fielding good teams and keep making it to the Tourney. BU's consistency is not some flaw, it's the thing that makes him most likely to get us where we want to be. It took Scott Drew until year 5 at Baylor to make the Tourney, until yeat 7 to make the second weekend (he went to Elite Eight that year), and then it wasn't until yesterday 18 that he made his first Final Four and won the whole thing. The only reason Baylor isn't with us in the "good programs that have never won the Tourney" heap is that they didn't cut bait on Drew for "not winning the big game."

Gotta stop looking at this program in the lens of single game sample sizes (which is invariably what any Tournament loss comes down to). We are in a position where every year has the potential to be the year. That significantly increases our chances of breaking through, and few programs enjoy that status.

And also, doesn't it make the process of being an Illini fan more fun? Maybe the singular memory of cutting the nets would be better, but my guess is that if we won a natty and then failed to make the tournament the next 9 years, a lot more of you would lose interest than if we made the tourney the every year for the next decade but never won it.

the juiceman cometh said:

The only reason Baylor isn't with us in the "good programs that have never won the Tourney" heap is that they didn't cut bait on Drew for "not winning the big game."

Click to expand...

Agree with the sentiment. But before Scott Drew took over, they had made the tournament 4 times ever. They went 70 years without winning their conference. We could lose every game for the next 12 years and they could go undefeated during the same span, winning 12 straight national titles, and they still would have fewer all time wins than we do.

I would certainly hope no one is lumping us in with them.

But it's really all the more credit to Scott Drew that he won one there and probably only bolsters your main point.