Illini Basketball 2025-2026
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MLT on EvanMiya:
Someone recently mentioned whether we'd be getting Jekyll or Hyde for our game against Oregon...
The comment was a bit hyperbolic but it got me thinking that this team might actually be the best Underwood team at beating teams we're supposed to beat, without any true stinkers on the schedule looking back. As long as we win Saturday, this will be the only BU team besides 2020-2021 that went into the post-season with losses only to other NCAAT teams (2021 is a bit of an asterisk; we lost to a MSU team that was 15-11 and finished 15-13, but was an 11 seed).
The key going into the NCAAT this year is shaping up to be don't go into overtime, and don't play Michigan.
The comment was a bit hyperbolic but it got me thinking that this team might actually be the best Underwood team at beating teams we're supposed to beat, without any true stinkers on the schedule looking back. As long as we win Saturday, this will be the only BU team besides 2020-2021 that went into the post-season with losses only to other NCAAT teams (2021 is a bit of an asterisk; we lost to a MSU team that was 15-11 and finished 15-13, but was an 11 seed).
The key going into the NCAAT this year is shaping up to be don't go into overtime, and don't play Michigan.
Something that I don’t think is discussed enough about this team is how high their floor is.
According to torvik our worst game score of the year was UConn at 65. We don’t have another under 80.
For comparisons sake MSU has games of 34,64, 69,69, and a few in the 70s. Purdue’s got a 53 and 65 to go along with a couple of 70s. Most other non one seeds are even worse off.
To me that signals a couple things. First off, that even though the results have been disappointing, we’ve had very few bad games. Some mediocre here and there, but truly one bad game efficiency wise.
I think it also points to our ability to be versatile. We haven’t shot well from three in multiple games this year and still had high efficiency numbers. Likewise at the FT line.
All this is to say I think it’ll take an all time game against a decent team to knock us out of the tournament.
I’m still very high on this teams march potential.
According to torvik our worst game score of the year was UConn at 65. We don’t have another under 80.
For comparisons sake MSU has games of 34,64, 69,69, and a few in the 70s. Purdue’s got a 53 and 65 to go along with a couple of 70s. Most other non one seeds are even worse off.
To me that signals a couple things. First off, that even though the results have been disappointing, we’ve had very few bad games. Some mediocre here and there, but truly one bad game efficiency wise.
I think it also points to our ability to be versatile. We haven’t shot well from three in multiple games this year and still had high efficiency numbers. Likewise at the FT line.
All this is to say I think it’ll take an all time game against a decent team to knock us out of the tournament.
I’m still very high on this teams march potential.
Agree. And in the UConn game, Hurley said afterward that if the Illini had hit their open shots at their normal rate, Illinois would have won. The keys to the offense were given to Wagler after the UConn game...and the offense went to another level. As far as March goes, defense and rebounding will dictate how far the Illini go. Have to be able to find a way when the shots don't fall (says Capt. Obvious).
One of the most underrated stats of the year: Boswell only has 28 turnovers all season.
Assist to turnover of 2.82
Assist to turnover of 2.82
this is one of the few years where I'm not worried about our players getting fouls because if the depth and style of play which is such a relief I was always scared kofi would get an early foul or Terrance getting a offense foul called on him because of the impact of them being taken out.
I have always been a proponent of college basketball changing the foul/foul out situation. I don't like sports that allow their best talent to be eliminated from the action. foul calls are so subjective that there should be more leeway and never a foul out opinion. you can increase the penalty (extra foul shot) but never elimination. maybe just PTSD from Fatboy may bowling into James Augustine and picking up cheap fouls
Wow!
Not that our placement on that graph isn’t awesome, but that chart is inherently stupid. At most it proves a very basic assumption that the more fouls you commit the more makes at the line the opponents will have.
Yeah, everyone is hugging the line as would make sense
Duke might be the one team that has some explaining to do: “why are a disproportionate ratio of the fouls you commit non-shooting fouls?”
Or maybe some good free throw defense
/s
Seriously though, they must commit most of their fouls around the perimeter rather than on shots. I like our low-foul approach, but Duke's suggests we might want to be more aggressive in non-shooting situations
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I was gonna say perhaps a bit too harsh but it really looks like the only team taking high advantage of non-ft giving fouls is Duke.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Kind of crazy to compare Turnovers per 40 Minutes for this year's team (so far) compared to last year's team, only looking at players who got any material playing time.
2025
Jakucionis - 4.7
Boswell - 2.7
T. Ivisic - 2.4
Riley - 1.9
Gibbs-Lawhorn - 1.8
Johnson, Jr. - 1.7
White - 1.7
Davis - 1.1
Humrichous - 0.8
---> Group Average = 2.1
2026
Mirkovic - 2.6
T. Ivisic - 2.2 (8% improvement)
Wagler - 2.1
Stojakovic - 2.1
Boswell - 1.6 (41% improvement)
Z. Ivisic - 1.4
Davis - 0.4 (64% improvement)
Humrichous - 0.3 (63% improvement)
---> Group Average = 1.5 (40% improvement)
Overall, we averaged 11.7 turnovers per game last year ... this year, we average 9.0. Looking at the especially bad games through the same date last year...
10+ Turnovers
- 21 in 2025
- 13 in 2026
15+ Turnovers
- 6 in 2025 (high of 17)
- 0 in 2026 (high of 13)
Another fun fact is that of our 13 games with 10+ turnovers, 8 occurred before January 1! Pre-January, we averaged 9.8 per game. Since January 1, we are only averaging 7.9, and since February 1, we are only averaging 7.6.
This team's MUCH improved ability to take care of the ball this year is definitely an underrated part of our success...
I just noticed that in Torvik's rankings, we are #4 in net efficiency (AdjO minus AdjE), but #6 in Barthag (the pythagorean expectation, or expected winning percentage based on AdjO and AdjE). Barthag is more aligned with the ratio of AdjO and AdjE rather than net efficiency. At the extremes, this is typically more accurate (AdjO/E of 80/60 is more dominant than 140/120).
But KenPom went away from pythagorean expectation in 2016 or 2017 in favor of net efficiency. I think that change was primarily to make the ratings easy to understand and compare between teams, but I doubt he would have done it if it meaningfully reduced accuracy.
But KenPom went away from pythagorean expectation in 2016 or 2017 in favor of net efficiency. I think that change was primarily to make the ratings easy to understand and compare between teams, but I doubt he would have done it if it meaningfully reduced accuracy.
What card was he buying?
1) Ayo over Boo Buie
2) TSJ over Liddell
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kofi over trayce. 2 time all American kofi
Here is my framework for evaluating this 2025-26 Illini season, and any season for that matter, and it's absolutely march madness/big tourney driven
Don't make it: Not acceptable season
First round exit: Bad season
2nd round exit: Average season
Sweet 16 exit: Good
Elite 8 exit: Very good
F4 or Runner up: Great
F4 Winner: Championship season
All that we do over the entire season should ultimately aspire to, build to and get a Championship season. Period.
This doesn't mean I don't pay attention until tourney time. I go to games and I try to watch every minute of each game. And in doing that there can be & are a lot of really "nice to haves" along the way. Win the Braggin Rights game, win in Maui if we are there, beat Iowa in Iowa City, win the B1G regular season title (extra nice), win the B1G tourney title (extra nice), etc...
But for me, the season is defined by the big tourney. How this season will be defined is quickly approaching and I'm stoked for it.
Anyone else with me on this type of framework that is absolutely tourney driven? I believe there are but we might be the minority.
Don't make it: Not acceptable season
First round exit: Bad season
2nd round exit: Average season
Sweet 16 exit: Good
Elite 8 exit: Very good
F4 or Runner up: Great
F4 Winner: Championship season
All that we do over the entire season should ultimately aspire to, build to and get a Championship season. Period.
This doesn't mean I don't pay attention until tourney time. I go to games and I try to watch every minute of each game. And in doing that there can be & are a lot of really "nice to haves" along the way. Win the Braggin Rights game, win in Maui if we are there, beat Iowa in Iowa City, win the B1G regular season title (extra nice), win the B1G tourney title (extra nice), etc...
But for me, the season is defined by the big tourney. How this season will be defined is quickly approaching and I'm stoked for it.
Anyone else with me on this type of framework that is absolutely tourney driven? I believe there are but we might be the minority.
IllinoisFan733
- Chicago
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I highly disagree with this particular framework.
The Illini could play 6 more games and be bounced in the second round of the tourney. That would be highly disappointing end to season. On the other hand, 6 games could also be a run to the E8 if the Illini lose their first game in the B1G tourney. I would call that more than good. It is actually possible that the Illini win the National Championship in only 8 games or makes the Final Four only playing 7 more games (who would not call that overly fantastic?).
The reality is the legacy of this team will not be based on what happens at the United Center but what happens in the NCAAT.
It looks like he limited the pool to players who spent their entire career at the same team and it needed to be at least two years.
Otherwise there's like 10+ players who go in over Johnny Davis.
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