Illini Basketball 2025-2026

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#76      
Illini2010-11
NarrowJ said:
Alabama game was without Tomi - the end of that game was really back and forth, Boswell made like 3 layups in a row and Andrej had a tip in, needed a stop at the end and Philon got the whistle on a drive and made 1/2 free throws to give them a 3 point lead... they fouled with 6 seconds left so we couldn't get off a 3 pointer

Nebraska was the Lawrence step back buzzer beater... a shot that doesn't go in 65% of the time

Michigan State was without KB and was the Jaxon Kohler travel that didn't get called... we'd have had the ball with a 1 point lead with 8 seconds left

First Wisconsin game was without AS & KB and was an Austin Rapp 3 to force overtime... again a shot that doesn't go in 65% of the time

UCLA was just a massive failure, I think that game and the most recent game are coloring a lot of people's opinions

Feels odd I have listed only a handful of games here
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Heck, even Friday, Wagler short armed a shot he makes with regularity in the last minute of regulation. These games happen. We will be fine as long as the team is mentally strong (I believe they are).
 
#77      
Fighter of the Nightman
NarrowJ said:
Need to look at more than the final score… Illinois has had several very close games where they just ran away at the end.

vs Texas Tech, as you pointed out
vs Tennessee was a 6 pt game with 4:21 left
at Ohio State was a 3 pt game with 1:19 left
at Iowa was a 4 pt game with 1:53 left
at Northwestern was a 6 pt game with 4:13 left
at Purdue was a 2 pt game with 45 seconds left
at Maryland shouldn’t have been close but was

We’ve lost a few overtime games by one possession, and the closer you get to the score being even the more luck factors in (unless you just believe certain teams are preordained to win the final possession)
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Regarding your last point, I don’t believe that by any stretch. However, I’ve played enough sports at even just a high school level to know those final moments of a close game on a big stage can be a whirlwind … when that much luck is involved and players are sort of acting on adrenaline and instinct, the TINIEST margin in better preparation and mindset can be the difference.

My personal guess is that most third party viewers would have said MSU, UCLA and Wisconsin (both times) looked like they were going to beat us very quickly into OT. And I think that could at least indicate that we aren’t exactly confident or that we don’t feel supremely prepared in those clutch situations. All just conjecture, but it looks like we sort of go out and approach it like any other 5 minutes of basketball as if it’s this business-like approach and we “just need to execute” … and I think that’s a wrong way to look at those situations and can cause a player to just be a half step slower, a touch less urgent, literally 5% less alert than he needs to be, etc. It might sound like a cooked up theory without hard evidence, but the other argument is that we’re unlucky on a cosmic scale, and I find that infinitely more difficult to believe than there is something about our approach/plan in these situations what puts us at a disadvantage, however tiny.
 
#78      
EmeraldCityIllini
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Regarding your last point, I don’t believe that by any stretch. However, I’ve played enough sports at even just a high school level to know those final moments of a close game on a big stage can be a whirlwind … when that much luck is involved and players are sort of acting on adrenaline and instinct, the TINIEST margin in better preparation and mindset can be the difference.

My personal guess is that most third party viewers would have said MSU, UCLA and Wisconsin (both times) looked like they were going to beat us very quickly into OT. And I think that could at least indicate that we aren’t exactly confident or that we don’t feel supremely prepared in those clutch situations. All just conjecture, but it looks like we sort of go out and approach it like any other 5 minutes of basketball as if it’s this business-like approach and we “just need to execute” … and I think that’s a wrong way to look at those situations and can cause a player to just be a half step slower, a touch less urgent, literally 5% less alert than he needs to be, etc. It might sound like a cooked up theory without hard evidence, but the other argument is that we’re unlucky on a cosmic scale, and I find that infinitely more difficult to believe than there is something about our approach/plan in these situations what puts us at a disadvantage, however tiny.
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we pulled a top 10 kenpom team as a 9 seed and a top 5 kenpom team as a 5 seed.

we lost a first team all american to one of the most outrageous criminal charges you will ever see and probably cost us a 2 seed instead of a 3 versus UCONN.

BYU moved to the best 5 to the worst 6, which im still confused how became our problem.

Purdue is gonna pass us because they got rewarded for losing to wisconsin and an easier draw - which somehow got even more lucrative with a UCLA team without their 2 best players

We are cosmically unlucky a lot. to be fair lol.
 
#79      
NarrowJ
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Regarding your last point, I don’t believe that by any stretch. However, I’ve played enough sports at even just a high school level to know those final moments of a close game on a big stage can be a whirlwind … when that much luck is involved and players are sort of acting on adrenaline and instinct, the TINIEST margin in better preparation and mindset can be the difference.

My personal guess is that most third party viewers would have said MSU, UCLA and Wisconsin (both times) looked like they were going to beat us very quickly into OT. And I think that could at least indicate that we aren’t exactly confident or that we don’t feel supremely prepared in those clutch situations. All just conjecture, but it looks like we sort of go out and approach it like any other 5 minutes of basketball as if it’s this business-like approach and we “just need to execute” … and I think that’s a wrong way to look at those situations and can cause a player to just be a half step slower, a touch less urgent, literally 5% less alert than he needs to be, etc. It might sound like a cooked up theory without hard evidence, but the other argument is that we’re unlucky on a cosmic scale, and I find that infinitely more difficult to believe than there is something about our approach/plan in these situations what puts us at a disadvantage, however tiny.
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The whole "unlucky on a cosmic scale" thing is what I made sure to point out isn't happening though. Nobody is saying we should have won every single one of the overtime games and just got luckboxed out of them. The argument is simply that we've played a handful of coin flip games and lost all of them, which typically doesn't happen. If the obvious Kohler travel is called? If Lawrence misses the step back 3? If Rapp misses the 3 they needed to tie? We had starters out for 4 of these games we're discussing too, which is an another critical piece of context.

Nobody is arguing the existence of sorcery here.
 
#80      
Illini in Italy
NarrowJ said:
The whole "unlucky on a cosmic scale" thing is what I made sure to point out isn't happening though. Nobody is saying we should have won every single one of the overtime games and just got luckboxed out of them. The argument is simply that we've played a handful of coin flip games and lost all of them, which typically doesn't happen. If the obvious Kohler travel is called? If Lawrence misses the step back 3? If Rapp misses the 3 they needed to tie? We had starters out for 4 of these games we're discussing too, which is an another critical piece of context.

Nobody is arguing the existence of sorcery here.
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Maybe we should be . . .

Harry Potter No GIF
 
#81      
illini510
NarrowJ said:
Don’t count those? lol ok.. they were close games that we won



Which are just luck games, single possession games are coin flips
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We are talking about close games against tournament teams aka Quad 1 games, not teams that are below .500 that are more easily winnable even if both of those were on the road
 
#82      
NarrowJ
illini510 said:
We are talking about close games against tournament teams aka Quad 1 games, not teams that are below .500 that are more easily winnable even if both of those were on the road
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I'm talking about all close games, because when you approach a problem you don't purposely leave out context... unless, of course, you want the results to show what you hope they show
 
#83      
Illinicpa14
EmeraldCityIllini said:
we pulled a top 10 kenpom team as a 9 seed and a top 5 kenpom team as a 5 seed.

we lost a first team all american to one of the most outrageous criminal charges you will ever see and probably cost us a 2 seed instead of a 3 versus UCONN.

BYU moved to the best 5 to the worst 6, which im still confused how became our problem.

Purdue is gonna pass us because they got rewarded for losing to wisconsin and an easier draw - which somehow got even more lucrative with a UCLA team without their 2 best players

We are cosmically unlucky a lot. to be fair lol.
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To use your own example, we didn’t even play BYU…we played an 11 seed Duquesne so that ended up helping us. people are only looking at one side of the unfair coin.
 
#85      
STLini25
In the last 2 years, Illinois is 0-9 in OT and games of 3 points or less. I think that reflects poorly on the staff especially since Underwood thinks it’s horrible to even ask a question about it when most coaches would be doing an analysis on we have have lost our last NINE one possession games.
 
#86      
NarrowJ
STLini25 said:
In the last 2 years, Illinois is 0-9 in OT and games of 3 points or less. I think that reflects poorly on the staff especially since Underwood thinks it’s horrible to even ask a question about it when most coaches would be doing an analysis on we have have lost our last NINE one possession games.
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When we lose (not often) its usually close, when we win (happens way more often) its usually not close
 
#87      
EmeraldCityIllini
STLini25 said:
In the last 2 years, Illinois is 0-9 in OT and games of 3 points or less. I think that reflects poorly on the staff especially since Underwood thinks it’s horrible to even ask a question about it when most coaches would be doing an analysis on we have have lost our last NINE one possession games.
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You guys and this brad sturdy question. And you're not even right, they beat Mizzou by 3 last year.

They were up 2 points with 9 seconds left against Purdue, Wagler hit two clutch free throws, we got a clutch defensive stop, and Smith missed a 3-pointer as the buzzer went off. So you've talked yourself into some bizarre scenario where you'd be happier if Wagler and Mirk either missed a free throw(s) or Smith made the 3 at the buzzer. All so you can convince yourself to be more mad at Brad.
 
#89      
STLini25
EmeraldCityIllini said:
You guys and this brad sturdy question. And you're not even right, they beat Mizzou by 3 last year.

They were up 2 points with 9 seconds left against Purdue, Wagler hit two clutch free throws, we got a clutch defensive stop, and Smith missed a 3-pointer as the buzzer went off. So you've talked yourself into some bizarre scenario where you'd be happier if Wagler and Mirk either missed a free throw(s) or Smith made the 3 at the buzzer. All so you can convince yourself to be more mad at Brad.
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You are correct. 1-9 in the last 2 years in one possession games.
 
#92      
wc_illini
NarrowJ said:
The whole "unlucky on a cosmic scale" thing is what I made sure to point out isn't happening though. Nobody is saying we should have won every single one of the overtime games and just got luckboxed out of them. The argument is simply that we've played a handful of coin flip games and lost all of them, which typically doesn't happen. If the obvious Kohler travel is called? If Lawrence misses the step back 3? If Rapp misses the 3 they needed to tie? We had starters out for 4 of these games we're discussing too, which is an another critical piece of context.

Nobody is arguing the existence of sorcery here.
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I agree that the pessimistic view shouldn't be taken too far. There's a ton of variance even over full games (per KenPom: "in the 44 cases where the home team won the first game by exactly 30 points, they won the road rematch by an average of four points"), much more so for a handful of 5 minute overtimes. And you're right to point out the close games where we pulled way.

However, TeamRankings ranks us #2 (+15.4 pts/half) in first half of games, but #16 (+9.5 pts/half) in the second halves (I wish I could further split this by opponent quality and/or offense/defense ratings, so if anyone knows of a site that can do that, let me know).

This isn't true of our prior Underwood teams, so I'd guess it's the conditioning/athleticism/small rotation of this particular group rather than a persistent coaching weakness, but it could be the particular schemes the staff has worked on with this group are limited or exploitable within games. Regardless, these rankings suggest the odds are less than we would otherwise expect if a game goes to overtime, and especially so if fatigue is the main reason.
 
#95      
NarrowJ
wc_illini said:
I agree that the pessimistic view shouldn't be taken too far. There's a ton of variance even over full games (per KenPom: "in the 44 cases where the home team won the first game by exactly 30 points, they won the road rematch by an average of four points"), much more so for a handful of 5 minute overtimes. And you're right to point out the close games where we pulled way.

However, TeamRankings ranks us #2 (+15.4 pts/half) in first half of games, but #16 (+9.5 pts/half) in the second halves (I wish I could further split this by opponent quality and/or offense/defense ratings, so if anyone knows of a site that can do that, let me know).

This isn't true of our prior Underwood teams, so I'd guess it's the conditioning/athleticism/small rotation of this particular group rather than a persistent coaching weakness, but it could be the particular schemes the staff has worked on with this group are limited or exploitable within games. Regardless, these rankings suggest the odds are less than we would otherwise expect if a game goes to overtime, and especially so if fatigue is the main reason.
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That's a really interesting way of looking at it. I'm not trying to persuade people into 4-5 more wins... but maybe 1-2?
 
#100      
Rooftop
NarrowJ said:
Yes!

They were 6-7 in their last 13 conference games... meaning regular season games

Then win the BTT

So it is possible a rough patch doesn't end your season
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But to truly consider what you wrote, you said “…way worse slide than what we are on”.

They now arent
 
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