Joel Goodson
- it's all ball bearings, nowadays
barring getting racked on the injury front, we're gonna be a wagon
hoping for an absolute wagon
I'm so ready for it
hoping for an absolute wagon
I'm so ready for it
Illini Basketball 2026-2027
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I don't think we should look at a season like Purdue's as a failure if it happens, but because we've already got a FF in the bag, I would be inclined to say "NO DEAL" to the banker and risk a worse outcome for a chance to get a better one.
Purdue is an instructive example though of a situation where continuity of a really good team was just kind of the same rather than taking a leap upward. That can happen.
Well, 3 of 7 made the second weekend the next year so they came close to matching their previous success.
But I really don't see a pattern. (I thought I would when I started looking this up but like BWA above, was mildly shocked to see the number of complete failures.) There are just so many other circumstances around each team that it's hard to draw any conclusions.
Purdue - Although they returned a bunch, they lost Edey from that team. It was hardly a run-it-back type of situation.
Alabama - Went from a 4 seed the year they made the FF to a 2 seed the next year. Just fell a game short.
FAU - Improved from a 9 seed the year they made the FF to an 8 seed the next year. Just didn't have another Cinderella run.
Miami - Lost two seniors who were drafted in the 2nd round. Still kinda inexcusable to miss the tourney completely though.
Villanova - Lost Jay Wright.
UNC - Objectively hilarious. Returned so much. Preseason #1 team. Probably should've fired Davis then. Glad they let him hang around.
UCLA - Improved from an 11 seed to a 4 seed. Just fell a couple games short.
No? You aren't going to score on every single one of your possessions. At best you're probably going to score on 50-60%? (estimated guess; assuming we're very efficient). Last season we were at 65.7 poss per 40 -- let's say that creeps up a little and this year we're around 68.
But regardless.... that would only mean 35-40 possessions per game where you actually score a point.
Add in the factor of role identification, what shots players are/aren't allowed, how many shots, etc... there's definitely a constructed sample to work from.
MAYBE in hockey or soccer that would make sense... "score as many goals as you possibly can." But even then there's player value.
Well there IS a limit to have many shots one can take (to get said number of baskets), which varies given how good a team you are on.
Nick Martinelli averaged 23 points per game at Northwestern. Do you think he would've done the same at Illinois?
I still think they add one more sometime before the season.
Think they’re going to add another piece …
A versatile power forward capable of playing the 3 or 5 if needed I’m hoping.
I hope so. I think this team as it stands will be good. Doesn't seem like a top 5 team to me unless we have another very positive surprise. Maybe not as drastic a surprise as Wagler but someone has to be much better than advertised. Especially given that the FF run was likely at least a mild overperformance last year / a good draw.
I agree that this will be the biggest point of emphasis coming in for the new guards (as it was for Andrej), and I also see this as more of a learning curve than a deficiency.
We were top 10 in rebounding margin in each of the last 3 seasons, and I don't expect that to change this season, with probably one of the 3 best front courts in all of college basketball. From an outsider's standpoint, it seems like Brad and Co. have made it abundantly clear that rebounding wins and if you don't want to go for a rebound off every single miss, you'll be spending more time than you'd expect on the bench.
In both Vaaks and QC case, I highly doubt rebounding was as big of a point of emphasis for them in their respective previous roles.
welcome back.
Great post. No question that QC will likely score over 20 pts. in some game. It is also a safe bet that he will not scored in some game. But on this team with so many guys who can score, 15-18 per game is not likely reachable for any of them, but no one needs to or will be expected to do that.
The entire key to success for this team is their scoring efficiency as a team. In other words, when your opportunities to score present theimselves (and some games you will be intentionally shut down by defensive focus on that task), you need to put the ball in the basket most of the time.
There will be 8 guys expected to do that. If one of them is not getting the opporunity or is not efficient, he will need to go play the heck out of it on the other end, rebound, hit open guys, and take care of the ball. The concept is simple, but the execution is very complex.
lstewart53x3
- Scottsdale, Arizona
We finished last year at #6 in Torvik. Making the F4 as the 6th best team wasn’t that unlikely:
And Torvik’s prediction model for 2027 currently has us at #4, so I think a preseason top 5 ranking in the AP is fairly likely:
Last I remember, Torvik had us around #12, but I didn't pay much attention since rosters were in flux- does anyone know what changed since then? Did he just put Andrej on our roster?
seems like we'll start the season as exactly that.
We've had six 17ppg scorers the last 6 years.
And nine 15ppg scores the last 7 years.
I think it's very likely.
here is what I am seeing now. up to#4 but not sure if this is fully updated. it does have andrej on the roster
Having Duke so far ahead of everyone... #1 defense, #1 offense... can't wait for the season to start so I can see that not actually happen
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I actually think our draw was SUPER underrated ... it pretty much rests on (A) the assumption going into the Tournament that UConn was the most overrated top seed and (B) that Iowa wasn't actually that good so we got lucky to play them. Considering how UConn just continued to beat everyone in their path until they finally fell to a (possibly historically) great Michigan team and how Iowa both knocked off one of the hottest #1 seeds in Florida in what was virtually a Gators home game and MORE than passed the eye test late in the season ... I would argue we actually played three teams playing REALLY good basketball during the Houston/Iowa/UConn stretch.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Eh, we got really lucky to avoid Florida. It is what it is, and we should apologize to precisely nobody for it.
I am very curious if this is an aspect of aggregation vs rotation players. duke is extremely deep so wondering if when they cut their rotation to 8 or 9 people. usage I'm sure will change a lot for them
I probably land somewhere in between. As a 3-seed, we definitely got lucky. But based on final computer rankings, we should have been a 2-seed and Houston was essentially tied with whoever would be worst 1-seed.
And if you swap Houston and Iowa, our draw doesn't look that different from what the top 2-seed might expect.
Here’s the truth about this.
Only 107 out of 160 all time 1seeds have made the elite 8.
That means:
1 - (160/160 - 53/160) ^ 4
1 - (0.66875) ^ 4
1 - 0.2000
80% probability that a 1seed in a given tournament will not make the Elite 8. What happened wasn’t that abnormal; you just have to be in the correct bracket.
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