Illini Basketball 2026-2027

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#151      
Davis needs to look for his shot more. He's the best shooter on the team.

Ben and Jake were virtually identical players offensively. However, Ben's 3pt attempts per game were significantly higher.

Jake should have many of the same shots available to him (and he's a far better shooter than Ben).
Ben was pretty quick to get his shot off and was looking to shoot anytime he could when under 30 ft. Jake only shoots when open and was deterred anytime a defender was within 6 ft. He can get more shots, but needs to work on a quicker process and maybe some moves to get open. I can't recall him shooting off a screen but that could happen (maybe it did but I did not see it). It is somewhat surprising that he is not more aggressive in his shooting... but then with all the other offensively talented guys on the team, he does not have to be. That could change though.
 
#152      
Davis needs to look for his shot more. He's the best shooter on the team.

Ben and Jake were virtually identical players offensively. However, Ben's 3pt attempts per game were significantly higher.

Jake should have many of the same shots available to him (and he's a far better shooter than Ben).
I think Ben's 3pt shot attempts were higher because he played more (22.2 MPG vs Jake's 19.4). If you adjust Jake's total 3PA over the year of 133 to 22.2 MPG, you get 153 3PA on the season, vs Ben's 158 total, so Ben actually took approx. 3% more 3PA than Jake over the course of the season.

To your point, there are other usage stats they share that are remarkably close. They both only took 24 FT attempts on the full season, they both had top 5 turnover rates in CBB, and had very similar OReb rates. Ben had more counting stats on defense (2x as many DReb, 3x as many blocks).
 
#153      
Ben was pretty quick to get his shot off and was looking to shoot anytime he could when under 30 ft. Jake only shoots when open and was deterred anytime a defender was within 6 ft. He can get more shots, but needs to work on a quicker process and maybe some moves to get open. I can't recall him shooting off a screen but that could happen (maybe it did but I did not see it). It is somewhat surprising that he is not more aggressive in his shooting... but then with all the other offensively talented guys on the team, he does not have to be. That could change though.
I agree Ben has the higher quicker release of the two. But I think Jake’s release is quicker/better than you’re giving him credit for. I can’t go along with the “six feet” stuff.

Also, you have to consider Jake was utilized primarily as a corner spacer/sniper in most all of our sets. That was what was asked of him. Ben often found himself in different situations; often out front in pick and pop situations; more than Jake.
So…different roles…different situations. It’s tough to compare. (They were often used differently.)
 
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#154      
Not sure we expect Jakstys to play anything close to meaningful minutes. He's in the Brandon Lieb role.
Jakstys 6'10' 220 is significantly stronger than Lieb so he can help out of somebody is beating up Tomas or Big Z in the paint and David is in foul trouble.
Landon Davis is 6'9" 220 lbs but does not look as strong.

in 2027 we run the risk of Tomas, Big Z graduating and David to NBA. Depending on what bigs we can bring in Jakstys and Landon Davis might be playing significant 4 or 5 roles.
 
#155      
Jakstys 6'10' 220 is significantly stronger than Lieb so he can help out of somebody is beating up Tomas or Big Z in the paint and David is in foul trouble.
Landon Davis is 6'9" 220 lbs but does not look as strong.

in 2027 we run the risk of Tomas, Big Z graduating and David to NBA. Depending on what bigs we can bring in Jakstys and Landon Davis might be playing significant 4 or 5 roles.
Neither will play a significant role next year. Illinois will likely be a big player for bigs in the transfer portal and Euro market. Rumor is had one of Z or Tomi went pro, we would’ve landed 7’4 big man Luigi this year.
 
#157      
Well… let’s just land Luigi next year. 😎
This has been my thought all along. It's like Z the year he went to Arkansas. Or when Boswell went to AZ.

"If he were to hypothetically transfer from this school, where's he most likely to end up?" At no point is it too early to ask the question (especially if we have that kind of ties to him).

Guys transfer left and right now. NEVER is it a good idea to burn bridges.

.....

Luigi reminds me of Mara, who wasn't anywhere near as good playing for Cronin.
 
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#158      
Jakstys 6'10' 220 is significantly stronger than Lieb so he can help out of somebody is beating up Tomas or Big Z in the paint and David is in foul trouble.
Landon Davis is 6'9" 220 lbs but does not look as strong.

in 2027 we run the risk of Tomas, Big Z graduating and David to NBA. Depending on what bigs we can bring in Jakstys and Landon Davis might be playing significant 4 or 5 roles.
I don't buy that Jakstys (pending a full recovery) is the same as Lieb. In the brief time we've seem him, he looked like he put on quality weight. He's also much more athletic than Lieb.
 
#162      
Worth noting that the game has changed.

Our 125.5 rating in 2024 was good for 3rd for that year, but would be 10th in 2026.

Alabama finished with the #3 offense last year at 129.7.

To be a top 3 offense next year, we’re probably gonna have to be pushing 130.
Please keep in mind that Kenpom is compared to the mean of that season. It's not useful to compare an o-rating from season to season.

I would venture a guess that a lot of the inflation in orating is simply a result of their being a worse mean as NIL has continued to expand and a lot of the best players on mid majors transfer up to power conference programs(even in bench roles).

Basically NIL and the instant transfer are just allowing talent to consolidate at the top moreso than it did 5 or even 10 years ago.
 
#163      
We are "grandfathered" in given it is a long standing agreement?
I don’t think “grandfathered” is a thing in this scenario.

Texas Tech football didn’t seem interested in keeping scheduling agreements when they allegedly bought out their scheduled first game of the year and Texas’ first game this season.

If the conference does make a unified ban, I’m sure Illinois would be persuaded to follow suit. Many ADs and coaches in the coaching fraternity did not appreciate Texas Tech athletic dept, President, and admin pressing hard and far against NCAA rules to enable a person who gambled on his own team to gain eligibility.
 
#164      
I don’t think “grandfathered” is a thing in this scenario.

Texas Tech football didn’t seem interested in keeping scheduling agreements when they allegedly bought out their scheduled first game of the year and Texas’ first game this season.

If the conference does make a unified ban, I’m sure Illinois would be persuaded to follow suit. Many ADs and coaches in the coaching fraternity did not appreciate Texas Tech athletic dept, President, and admin pressing hard and far against NCAA rules to enable a person who gambled on his own team to gain eligibility.
And that isn’t mentioning Cody Campbell’s involvement in the save college sports act, which isn’t in the interest of Big 10/SEC well being.
 
#165      
This has been my thought all along. It's like Z the year he went to Arkansas. Or when Boswell went to AZ.

"If he were to hypothetically transfer from this school, where's he most likely to end up?" At no point is it too early to ask the question (especially if we have that kind of ties to him).

Guys transfer left and right now. NEVER is it a good idea to burn bridges.

.....

Luigi reminds me of Mara, who wasn't anywhere near as good playing for Cronin.
Most likely a 1 & done.
 
#166      
Already hearing some stuff.....will post something by the end of the weekend after the first week is done.

I will add one nugget already: Stefan Vaaks has exceeded expectations so far.
Hd Reaction GIF by MOODMAN
 
#167      
Please keep in mind that Kenpom is compared to the mean of that season. It's not useful to compare an o-rating from season to season.

I would venture a guess that a lot of the inflation in orating is simply a result of their being a worse mean as NIL has continued to expand and a lot of the best players on mid majors transfer up to power conference programs(even in bench roles).

Basically NIL and the instant transfer are just allowing talent to consolidate at the top moreso than it did 5 or even 10 years ago.
No. O-rating is points per 100 possession adjusted for opponent. Not mean.
 
#171      
No. O-rating is points per 100 possession adjusted for opponent. Not mean.
I'd say yes and no.

From KenPom's methodology page (my bad if this has been changed; there isn't an easy way to know if this is his latest post about it):

"AdjEM is the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency...It represents the number of points the team would be expected to outscore the average D-I team over 100 possessions"

By extension, AdjO is Pts/100 against an average defense.

However, shifting players from mid-majors to power conferences changes the median moreso than the mean, so it isn't ridiculous to compare across seasons. But it isn't perfect either, since what we really care about is how we perform against other top teams.
 
#174      
I'd say yes and no.

From KenPom's methodology page (my bad if this has been changed; there isn't an easy way to know if this is his latest post about it):

"AdjEM is the difference between a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency...It represents the number of points the team would be expected to outscore the average D-I team over 100 possessions"

By extension, AdjO is Pts/100 against an average defense.

However, shifting players from mid-majors to power conferences changes the median moreso than the mean, so it isn't ridiculous to compare across seasons. But it isn't perfect either, since what we really care about is how we perform against other top teams.
Yea. I should have added I do agree that comparing ortg numbers between seasons is not valid because no matter the methodology defenses are not the same year to year. Even if we use unadjusted numbers such as sports reference comparison would not be meaningful. Interesting tho, last years unadjusting offensive numbers and ranking was 125 ppp and #1 in the country. fwiw.
 
#175      
No. O-rating is points per 100 possession adjusted for opponent. Not mean.
I mean it takes offensive production and then rates against the average team(the mean) from that season. To predict how each offense would produce over 100 possessions against the average opponent.

It still doesn't work as a comparison across years. If talent consolidates at the top and the average team has less talent compared to the top than previous seasons than you will see higher o ratings from that team.

There are 354 division 1 teams. When the talent condenses and the power schools naturally take the best players from small schools every year, it makes perfect sense that the efficiency gap between them would grow.
 
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