But it isn't the rating vs the median team (i.e. the #177 team), but the average, and the concentrated talent at the top theoretically pulls up the average just as much as it would if distributed across more teams. You could argue that top teams stash some of that talent on their bench, but NIL is keeping more good players in college for longer, so who knows whether it shifts things one way or the other.
Illini Basketball 2026-2027
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It's against the average team.
If you have more talent at the top and less at the bottom then you naturally get a wider spread in those efficiency numbers.
So you're far more likely to get higher highs and lowers lows than you would have even a few years ago which naturally leads to higher efficiency ratings which show the lack of parity between teams.
I think this really makes sense when you look at how March madness has transpired recently. Lack of upsets, no real mid major tourney runs, and 3 of the last 4 champions(UConn x2 and Michigan) were never even really challenged by anyone in the tourney.
Kenpom only goes back to 2002 and in the 00s and 10s we really saw mid majors close the talent gap with power schools and really started seeing a lot of upsets and tourney runs from small schools. We watched the first 1-16 upset and 2-15 upsets were becoming increasingly common.
Now with NIL and the transfer portal you have more fringe guys staying in college and mid major guys transferring up which imo has led to the least amount of parity we've seen in the kenpom era. We even kind of have tiers to the power conference level where it really only feels like 3-4 teams are even capable of winning the championship.
I think the landscape is a lot more similar to 70s or 80s when most guys were staying 3 or 4 years and you saw the rise of blue blood programs that would dominate year in year out.
Against the average defence. Not that average team. When a team plays another team which has a better defense than the average defence then the adjusted ppp would go up correct? When we look at the difference between Kenpom and Sports Reference, Kenpom ortg is 3 to 7 pp100 higher than unadjusted. That makes sense. But it doesn't say whether the average defense is going up or down from year to year. You have no idea whether the average defense is better in 2026 than 2019. imo NIL has kept players in college more than before. Then theoretically the average team would be better at defense. Also more Euros playing US college bb. Anyway it is a theoretical discussion.
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I agree there's been an increase in the spread (and I agree it's presumably due to the concentration of talent), but that doesn't tell us anything about whether the average team changed (if anything I'd argue the average -not median- has gone up due to players staying longer in college).
It's a pointless argument, though, since as I've said we don't care how we perform against an average or median team anyway- we care how we perform against the top teams, and those are likely better than pre-NIL (due to concentration and also more players staying longer in college).
this team might have a bit more flexibility regarding running the floor. Q and another of the kids (williams?) are fast and more importantly,
fast with the ball in their hands giving us the ability to push the pace after D- rebounds and have ample 3 pt. shooters to kick to.. if its not
there, it'll be similar to last year where penetration, lay ups or kicks to shooters will be our bread and butter. but i do think against some
slower big ten teams (you know who they are!) we can get out and get those transition baskets this year. personally,
i'd like to see the bigs develop a bit more post O and D on the blocks from the vic's. we were weakish against UConn and other teams (Duke?)
will be strong down there. those kind of problems are final four/elite 8 ones, good ones to have.
Andrej's defense on StirtzThe end of the Elite 8 game with Iowa is on BTN right now!
So would Big Z if he could find his 3 pt shot. Coming into last season I thought Z had better numbers from beyond the arc but stuggled some last season. I hope they both get up closer to 38% or so. If that happens our team is so scary to try and stop..
Some? I think that's an understatement. He went on a 3 for 30 type stretch(or something of the like), which stretched February - April.
I really wonder if his minutes increase this year, pretty noticeably (like, 20+ minutes).
Say Tomi plays 26 at the 5; and Z plays 14 at the 5; at Mirk plays 30 at the 4.
Who else is getting the non-Mirk 4 minutes? Saying Z wouldn't get at least 5-6 .... the logic just wouldn't add up.
3 for his last 31.
Starting from the MSU game all the way to UCONN.
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I expect Vaaks is the best shooter on the team, especially if they are being guarded. If Brad feels he is the best offensive player in the portal a huge part of it is his diffucult shot making ability. The distance and difficulty of the type of shots he took at Providence are not the same as Jakes open corner 3s. Now, if Jake is wide open and Vaaks is too i bet they are real similar and awesome from 3. Ill take either all day long on a wide open look.
In close games i bet Mirk plays as much as possible and closer to 35 but i do think most games Z will get 15 or a lil more at the 5 and another 5 to 8 backing up Mirk. If its not a blow out id expect Z and T to have fairly similar minutes on the floor. In blow outs some others will get some tick behind Mirk and maybe even T.
I really don’t get the position-minutes logic.
For instance, Ben last year played 22.5 minutes and Mirk played 29.5.
Let’s say Mirk played all his minutes at the 4. That only leaves 10.5 available for Ben. So where are the 12 other minutes coming from?
The 3? That’s where we have Stojakovic and Davis, who each played 19.6 and 26.3 respectively.
Obviously he’s not a PG, SG, or C.
Stojakovic and Davis both played a non-negligible amount of minutes at the 2… Having Mirkovic as a ballhandler allowed you to play Jake at SG as a non-handling connector.
More than a few times (mostly while Bam was out) we ran a lineup of Wagler, Davis, Ben, Mirk and Tomi for an extended period and another game we ran out a giant Wagler, Ben, Mirk, Z, Tomi lineup (anyone remember which game this was? I remember it happened but can’t recall against who).
IlliniwekKDR
- Colorado Springs, CO
Maybe a little off topic, but I really hope Hunter sent Kofi a card today
Vaaks will be a machine.
I have read many articles that he was the highest rated transfer portal player
If he learns to play defense. Stoyakovic had to sit until he turned into a pretty good defender. I'm sure Vaaks can become an average to good defensive player but there will be quick guards who will give him fits. It might be a shock for him competing in the Big Ten night after night....
You should’ve watched the Texas Tech game that just aired on BTN. Only one game where Braden gave him fits… he was always a very good defender.
Only reason he had to sit is due to injury.
Joel Goodson
- it's all ball bearings, nowadays
NEED SOME NUGGIES, STAT!!!
Sounds like Lucas Morillo has turned a good amount of heads so far.
Stojakovic did a better job on Christian Anderson in November than Boswell did.
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