Illini Basketball 2026-2027

#826      
Fly Illini Fly!
hodgesonfire said:
I think without Ben the team is a bit thin defensively at the post. Will need Jason J to step up because there are only 4 bigs on the roster.
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Jason J. getting legitimate minutes would mean two things:
1) None of our trio of Zens, Brown, and Williams are ready for any sort of limited minutes role (or as some would say #9thMan role).
2) We're likely battling one or two injuries to our top 8.
 
#827      
RollChief
hodgesonfire said:
I think without Ben the team is a bit thin defensively at the post. Will need Jason J to step up because there are only 4 bigs on the roster.
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Honestly I think the biggest defensive liability is Vaaks. He’s going to be so essential to our offensive engine but I feel like I’ve seen him get cooked several times both on Providence and playing for Estonia over the summer. Going to need him to not be an iso target.

I would bet Mirk takes another step defensively this year, and I bet Jake does as well. Jake took a substantial step up last year and was more than serviceable, some marginal athletic gains over the summer probably makes him a bit better of a defensive asset.
 
#828      
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?
hodgesonfire said:
I think without Ben the team is a bit thin defensively at the post. Will need Jason J to step up because there are only 4 bigs on the roster.
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And thats my concern. Jason Jakstys being the 9th best player on other final four contending teams is very unlikely.

It just signifies depth issues, along with the freshman underperforming and not being good enough to play here (if it were to turn out that way).
 
#829      
bavanga3
PepeSilvia said:
I didn't watch Providence enough to give a super great answer and college basketball individual defensive ratings are kind of a mess.

However, so much about being a decent defender is just effort and a lot of how you will look depends on the situation you are in(teammates around you and what you're asked to do in the scheme).

Providence was the 170th ranked defense in the country per Kenpom. Take any individual Illini last year and place them on Providence and they would look way worse on defense.

Vaaks has all the physical traits to be a serviceable defender and I don't think effort will be an issue playing under Brad. Plus, he will be surrounded by way more talent in a scheme designed for him to cover up his flaws on that end.
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He was part of the reason they were ranked 170th. He has a lot of work to do in that area and Brad has shown a knack for fixing that.
 
#830      
NarrowJ
PepeSilvia said:
Im not saying "insane homer take" as an insult. Just a take that you're only ever going to hear from the Illini fan base.

I don't think Jake would appear among top bench pieces from any neutral fans or general consensus.
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Appreciate you walking this back a bit. What you say is true -- most normal fanbases don't spend an entire summer talking about bench players.

I'm still sort of wondering who we rank above him as a wing off the bench, though. I'm sure there are guys out there, but Jake has a good enough resume we don't have to say someone is crazy / homer for thinking it:

1) Was 6th/7th guy on a F4 team and has another summer under his belt
2) Led the nation in ORtg
3) 2nd in the nation in turnover rate
4) Shot 41% from 3
5) Doesn't suck defensively
6) Said to be leader in the locker room

I saw a list somewhere, but would be interested to see yours to compare. McKenney and McCoy both likely start for Michigan. Or we thinking Teng? That's a reasonable one, because I'll assume they're going to start Bonke/Ward up front (Carr would work at the 4, but would be 'small ball' lineup).
 
#831      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
NarrowJ said:
I'm still sort of wondering who we rank above him as a wing off the bench, though. I'm sure there are guys out there, but Jake has a good enough resume we don't have to say someone is crazy / homer for thinking it:

1) Was 6th/7th guy on a F4 team and has another summer under his belt
2) Led the nation in ORtg
3) 2nd in the nation in turnover rate
4) Shot 41% from 3
5) Doesn't suck defensively
6) Said to be leader in the locker room

I saw a list somewhere, but would be interested to see yours to compare. McKenney and McCoy both likely start for Michigan. Or we thinking Teng? That's a reasonable one, because I'll assume they're going to start Bonke/Ward up front (Carr would work at the 4, but would be 'small ball' lineup).
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Christian Collins out of USC would rank 1st in the big ten for me in that department. He’s a top 5-10 recruit, and projected 1st round pick.
 
#833      
NarrowJ
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Christian Collins out of USC would rank 1st in the big ten for me in that department. He’s a top 5-10 recruit, and projected 1st round pick.
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I thought Collins is a post (PF)? Maybe hybrid 3/4? I'm going with the established senior that's played 20mpg on a F4 team over the freshman with potential. He's a black box right now.
 
#835      
NarrowJ
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Quentin Coleman is the #18 prospect on 247composite — and we think he’ll start over Jake and have a bigger impact.

Collins is #8.
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Agreed. Large chance that Collins starts over Cofie and thus isn't part of this conversation about bench pieces anyway.

If he is coming off the bench there's something wrong -- either not as good as advertised or else Cofie made a huge jump in the offseason. Either could happen, hence my 'black box' comment. I just wasn't impressed with him in my limited viewings (that and the fact he didn't seem to play on the wing at all).
 
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#836      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
NarrowJ said:
Agreed. Large chance that Collins starts over Cofie and thus isn't part of this conversation about bench pieces anyway.

If he is coming off the bench there's something wrong -- either not as good as advertised or else Cofie made a huge jump in the offseason.
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Cofie was a combine invite. He's definitely starting.

Rothstein 45 rankings have it:

G Alijah Arenas

G Rodney Rice

G KJ Lewis

F Jacob Cofie

C Eric Reibe

Projected Bench: Adonis Ratliff (5 star), Darius Ratliff (5 star), Christian Collins (5 star), Jalen Cox (All Patriot League 1st team).
 
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#837      
NarrowJ
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Cofie was a combine invite. He's definitely starting.

Rothstein 45 rankings have it:

G Alijah Arenas

G Rodney Rice

G KJ Lewis

F Jacob Cofie

C Eric Reibe

Projected Bench: Adonis Ratliff, Darius Ratliff, Christian Collins, Jalen Cox (not order specific).
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Since you are using NBA 'stock' to define who the starter is, per your "Cofie was a combine invite so he's definitely starting" comment, how are you reconciling that with the fact that Collins is mocked in the teens while Cofie is nowhere to be found?

I'm also dubious that he is a wing vs post player as he appeared to mostly play in the paint in the FIBA games and looked uncomfortable (at best) with the ball outside of 8 feet.
 
#838      
skyIdub
Ahhhhh Stage 4 of Illinois Basketball offseason.

We quietly transition from The Ninth Man, the death of DJ Carstenwhatever, and OMG Morez Johnson!…to player projections, schedule predictions, practice highlights, and only the best Loyalty Hot Takes.
Speaking of which, stick this one in your sauna rocks…
And this goes back appx 723 pages (forgive my math) to a post about Fletch and Mirks athleticism progress.
David Mirkovic as “Point Mirk” forward with a legit first step and shooting 35-40% from 3…..is a lottery pick. Take a pencil out of your kids back to school pack and write it down. No wait, make it a permanent marker you animals. I ain’t skrrd.

It’s truly a magical time to jump back and forth from Illinois Football to see how we are preparing, and dream of what could be.

I’m pretty proud of all of us for a very sane offseason after our FF run!
Ok I’m mostly proud of the majority of us for a semi sane offseason.
Ok fine, I’m generally satisfied with about 30% of us.
 
#839      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
NarrowJ said:
Since you are using NBA 'stock' to define who the starter is, per your "Cofie was a combine invite so he's definitely starting" comment, how are you reconciling that with the fact that Collins is mocked in the teens while Cofie is nowhere to be found?
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Experience matters. Also, Cofie was USC’s best player last year after CBM quit the team (either him or Ezra Asar). He averaged 9.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.8 blocks, 0.9 steals.

Just provides a lot of things in a lot of areas.
NarrowJ said:
I'm also dubious that he is a wing vs post player as he appeared to mostly play in the paint in the FIBA games and looked uncomfortable (at best) with the ball outside of 8 feet.
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He’s primarily recruited a small forward, but can play both as he’s extremely versatile.

IMG_1224.jpeg


At USC, he’ll likely play SF because they have so much talent with Cofie, Reibe, and the Ratliff twins filling the 4 and the 5.

About the original point, Collins is likely the best “backup wing” in the big ten. And if he starts over either Arenas or Lewis, then those guys take that spot likewise. Jake is great at what he does, but those guys provide lots more firepower.

I do think Davis is 2nd. And yes, I will take him over Kur Teng at USC. Teng just averaged more points because he attempted more threes, but the efficiency stats are much more in Jake’s favor.

Teng posted an Offensive Box Plus Minus of 1.6, while Jake was at 4.3. Teng posted offensive win shares of 0.7 compared to Jake’s 1.9.

Jake also posted a better Defensive BPM of 3.1 compared to Teng’s 2.0. Both had identical Defensive Win Shares (0.8).

Most notably, Jake had an offensive rating of 149.0 which led the country, while Teng was at 108.9.
 
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#841      
NarrowJ
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Experience matters. Also, Cofie was USC’s best player last year after CBM quit the team (either him or Ezra Asar). He averaged 9.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.8 blocks, 0.9 steals.

Just provides a lot of things in a lot of areas.

He’s primarily recruited a small forward, but can play both as he’s extremely versatile.

View attachment 50923

At USC, he’ll likely play SF because they have so much talent with Cofie, Reibe, and the Ratliff twins filling the 4 and the 5.

About the original point, Collins is likely the best “backup wing” in the big ten. And if he starts over either Arenas or Lewis, then those guys take that spot likewise. Jake is great at what he does, but those guys provide lots more firepower.

I do think Davis is 2nd. And yes, I will take him over Kur Teng at USC. Teng just averaged more points because he attempted more threes, but the efficiency stats are much more in Jake’s favor.

Teng posted an Offensive Box Plus Minus of 1.6, while Jake was at 4.3. Teng posted offensive win shares of 0.7 compared to Jake’s 1.9.

Jake also posted a better Defensive BPM of 3.1 compared to Teng’s 2.0. Both had identical Defensive Win Shares (0.8).

Most notably, Jake had an offensive rating of 149.0 which led the country, while Teng was at 108.9.
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Mainly threw Teng out there because I wasn't sure who else it could be. Interesting we can both ask AI if Collins is a SF or a PF and get two different answers, haha:

1784390164156.png


I think they have 4 really good perimeter guys that will all play 25-35 minutes (Rice, Arenas, Cox, Lewis) and while Collins might project as a SF he didn't look to have those types of skills (admittedly, limited viewings here). Torvik predicts Reibe is not even in their rotation, which is kind of weird and not really believeable.

Now, if they roll out a Cox/Rice/Arenas at the 1/2/3, and Lewis comes off the bench, then he's in the conversation.
 
#842      
Fly Illini Fly!
NarrowJ said:
I think they have 4 really good perimeter guys that will all play 25-35 minutes (Rice, Arenas, Cox, Lewis) and while Collins might project as a SF he didn't look to have those types of skills (admittedly, limited viewings here). Torvik predicts Reibe is not even in their rotation, which is kind of weird and not really believeable.
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They payed him a ton, but I’m not sure he was that impressive at UConn.

At certain points he wasn’t even in the rotation.
 
#843      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
WhereDoWeStandWithStorr? said:
And thats my concern. Jason Jakstys being the 9th best player on other final four contending teams is very unlikely.

It just signifies depth issues, along with the freshman underperforming and not being good enough to play here (if it were to turn out that way).
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I don't think it will "turn out that way." At least one of the freshman should be better than Jakstys.
 
#844      
NarrowJ
Fly Illini Fly! said:
They payed him a ton, but I’m not sure he was that impressive at UConn.

At certain points he wasn’t even in the rotation.
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He played in all 40 games for UConn and never played less than 5 minutes in any of those 40 games.

Rothstein has him starting, and Torvik says he won't even play at all. Which is sort of a microcosm of their entire team going into this season: difficult to say who starts outside of Rice and maybe Arenas.

I just think Cox has to start alongside Rice and Arenas. Otherwise you have 3 ball-hungry guys and no distributor. Lewis was a fringe top 100 kid as a recruit, and had a decent 2nd season at Arizona, but have to remember he played for a terrible Georgetown team last year and barely shot 40% (and is a career 27% three point shooter).

Arenas shot 34% overall and 21% from three on pretty large volume (13 attempts, 4.4 threes).

Rice is the most efficient of the three, but has played a total of 50 games across 4 seasons so you have to question the durability.

There's just a lot more that goes into this than recruit rankings. I don't think their mix of talent is optimal, and they're relying on a lot of young guys up front which rarely pans out.

I've dominated this thread along with couple other of you guys the last day or two, so I'm going to head out and touch some grass now and give others an opportunity to chime on on the USC vs Illinois debate.
 
#845      
Fly Illini Fly!
NarrowJ said:
He played in all 40 games for UConn and never played less than 5 minutes in any of those 40 games.

Rothstein has him starting, and Torvik says he won't even play at all. Which is sort of a microcosm of their entire team going into this season: difficult to say who starts outside of Rice and maybe Arenas.
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5 minutes is a low bar. Out of those 40 games, he had 12 of under 10 minutes.

In the tournament, his minutes were essentially equivalent to freshman DGL.
 
#846      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
NarrowJ said:
There's just a lot more that goes into this than recruit rankings. I don't think their mix of talent is optimal, and they're relying on a lot of young guys up front which rarely pans out.
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They are, but only for depth. It's the same way we're using Morillo.

Most likely scenario is that none of the freshmen will be starters.
Fly Illini Fly! said:
5 minutes is a low bar. Out of those 40 games, he had 12 of under 10 minutes.

In the tournament, his minutes were essentially equivalent to freshman DGL.
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He was playing behind the best center in the country, in Tarris Reed.

5.9 points per game in 13.8 minutes is very good production, in small opportunities.
 
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#849      
NarrowJ
Fly Illini Fly! said:
5 minutes is a low bar. Out of those 40 games, he had 12 of under 10 minutes.

In the tournament, his minutes were essentially equivalent to freshman DGL.
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You said he was out of the rotation for much of the season. He wasn’t.

Unless you mean 5 minutes isn’t significant enough to be a rotation player, in which case the entire #9thman argument falls on its face.
 
#850      
NarrowJ
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
They are, but only for depth. It's the same way we're using Morillo.

Most likely scenario is that none of the freshmen will be starters.

He was playing behind the best center in the country, in Tarris Reed.

5.9 points per game in 13.8 minutes is very good production, in small opportunities.
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You like Reed over Mara for best center? Wild… not even sure he was best center in their subpar concerence (Ejiofor).

Anyway, off to the lake now for me lol.
 
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