Illini Basketball 2026-2027

#1,376      
NarrowJ
HoopsterMan said:
Really depends on how you look at it - some may say Duke should have never been in that position. Saw a stat were overall 1's were 134-0 when leading by 15 at the half prior to that game, Duke had a 99% of winning when it was up 17 in the second half.
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You can choose to look at it however you’d like to, but Hurley did not draw that sequence up as it transpired. We can agree on that, hopefully.

“Okay, Boozer is gonna screw this up. All you have to do is heave a 40 foot shot. Guaranteed win. Break!”

That isn’t what happened.
 
#1,377      
Fly Illini Fly!
HoopsterMan said:
Do you think the outcome of a 40 minute game is reliant on one play that determines the winner?
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Yes.

When it’s a close game, the outcome is ALWAYS reliant on the plays at the end.

What you did prior to that is just putting yourself in position for those final moments. BUT — what happens in those final moments determine whether what you did prior, is looked at as a failure or masterpiece.

If that 40 footer didn’t go in, the narrative would be “why did you get down 19 points.”

Because it went in, everyone will say “what an amazing effort to come back.”

Same thing with our UCLA play at the end.
 
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#1,378      
HoopsterMan
NarrowJ said:
You can choose to look at it however you’d like to, but Hurley did not draw that sequence up as it transpired. We can agree on that, hopefully.

“Okay, Boozer is gonna screw this up. All you have to do is heave a 40 foot shot. Guaranteed win. Break!”

That isn’t what happened.
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Of course. You can't anticipate a broken play, you can only coach your kids up to be ready for anything. The extra pass was almost as impressive as the shot.
 
#1,379      
lstewart53x3
NarrowJ said:
You can choose to look at it however you’d like to, but Hurley did not draw that sequence up as it transpired. We can agree on that, hopefully.

“Okay, Boozer is gonna screw this up. All you have to do is heave a 40 foot shot. Guaranteed win. Break!”

That isn’t what happened.
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Yeah, let’s start here.

Let’s imagine for a sec that the steal with a few seconds to go was defensive skill, not luck. Arguable for sure, but let’s stick with that.

Let’s focus solely on the shot. A shot from 40 feet out. What percentage of the time does that shot go in? Maybe 25% of the time?

Which means there’s a 75% chance he misses that shot. Had the shot not went in, they of course would have lost the game. Therefore, they were decently lucky to win that game.

 
#1,380      
hangdog
NarrowJ said:
You can choose to look at it however you’d like to, but Hurley did not draw that sequence up as it transpired. We can agree on that, hopefully.

“Okay, Boozer is gonna screw this up. All you have to do is heave a 40 foot shot. Guaranteed win. Break!”

That isn’t what happened.
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I'm looking at it like good coaching isn't all about drawing up sequences. Illini fans should appreciate that.

I look at it like UCONN was down by 10 with under 7min again the #1 ranked team. Somehow they found the fortitude to get within 2 with time on the clock, when anything can happen. Looks like great coaching to me.

I'd rather have played Duke.
 
#1,381      
NarrowJ
lstewart53x3 said:
Yeah, let’s start here.

Let’s imagine for a sec that the steal with a few seconds to go was defensive skill, not luck. Arguable for sure, but let’s stick with that.

Let’s focus solely on the shot. A shot from 40 feet out. What percentage of the time does that shot go in? Maybe 25% of the time?

Which means there’s a 75% chance he misses that shot. Had the shot not went in, they of course would have lost the game. Therefore, they were decently lucky to win that game.

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I think the issue is two sides are arguing against something the other side isn't even saying.

When I say it was lucky they won, people respond "but Hurley's a great coach"

When they say Hurley's a great coach, I respond "He is but that sequence was still luck"

Everyone is correct here. If that wasn't a lucky play/sequence, then someone should show me one that is.
 
#1,382      
From the cheap seats
Kinda overlooked in this autopsy of Duke’s collapse against UConn is the Duke collapse against Houston…just 12 months earlier. Not sure 2 in a row is a trend yet, but I’m not ready to chalk it up to just bad luck.
Might have something to do with being heavily reliant on freshmen, even if they are one-and-dones.
 
#1,383      
wc_illini
lstewart53x3 said:
Yeah, let’s start here.

Let’s imagine for a sec that the steal with a few seconds to go was defensive skill, not luck. Arguable for sure, but let’s stick with that.

Let’s focus solely on the shot. A shot from 40 feet out. What percentage of the time does that shot go in? Maybe 25% of the time?

Which means there’s a 75% chance he misses that shot. Had the shot not went in, they of course would have lost the game. Therefore, they were decently lucky to win that game.

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The last play surely involved luck, and we'll never know if coaching made any difference in how it played out. But even without the last sequence, they would have beaten the spread by 2.5, so there's some credit/blame to be had regardless.
 
#1,384      
EmeraldCityIllini
lstewart53x3 said:
Yeah, let’s start here.

Let’s imagine for a sec that the steal with a few seconds to go was defensive skill, not luck. Arguable for sure, but let’s stick with that.

Let’s focus solely on the shot. A shot from 40 feet out. What percentage of the time does that shot go in? Maybe 25% of the time?

Which means there’s a 75% chance he misses that shot. Had the shot not went in, they of course would have lost the game. Therefore, they were decently lucky to win that game.

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I think it’s perfectly okay to say Hurley coached well, and they were lucky to win haha.

We have a tendency, especially on this board, to think every win is good coaching, and every loss bad coaching.
 
#1,385      
NarrowJ
HoopsterMan said:
Of course. You can't anticipate a broken play, you can only coach your kids up to be ready for anything. The extra pass was almost as impressive as the shot.
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The mistake: made by a player, not the coach

The extra pass: made by a player, not the coach

The 40 foot heave: made by a player, not the coach

Nobody has denied Hurley is a great coach, we all think he is (at least that I've seen)

There is no secret magical divinely-intervented tactical play that automatically gets you the ball back and a 40 foot shot to go in with 5 seconds left

If that wasn't a lucky play, can you show me one that was?

"coach up your kids to be ready for anything" <-- all you are saying is he happens to coach the team that got lucky

hangdog said:
I'm looking at it like good coaching isn't all about drawing up sequences. Illini fans should appreciate that.

I look at it like UCONN was down by 10 with under 7min again the #1 ranked team. Somehow they found the fortitude to get within 2 with time on the clock, when anything can happen. Looks like great coaching to me.

I'd rather have played Duke.
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Agreed on the great coaching. The sequence at the end of the game was lucky for them, though.
 
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#1,386      
logjam
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Yes.

When it’s a close game, the outcome is ALWAYS reliant on the plays at the end.

What you did prior to that is just putting yourself in position for those final moments. BUT — what happens in those final moments determine whether what you did prior, is looked at as a failure or masterpiece.

If that 40 footer didn’t go in, the narrative would be “why did you get down 19 points.”

Because it went in, everyone will say “what an amazing effort to come back.”

Same thing with our UCLA play at the end.
Click to expand...
hangdog said:
I'm looking at it like good coaching isn't all about drawing up sequences. Illini fans should appreciate that.

I look at it like UCONN was down by 10 with under 7min again the #1 ranked team. Somehow they found the fortitude to get within 2 with time on the clock, when anything can happen. Looks like great coaching to me.

I'd rather have played Duke.
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I think we should kick Loyola's butt then start checking off other offenders...
 
#1,387      
mysterio2525
the amount of ifs, buts, and if only's when talking about UConn is just too much. I'm all for analytics and predictive metrics but man at some point you just to have know an outlier when you see one and stop calling it luck. 3 finals games in 4 years and 3 !!! whoopings our beloved specifically taking away the thing we are elite at. results matter.
 
#1,388      
lstewart53x3
mysterio2525 said:
the amount of ifs, buts, and if only's when talking about UConn is just too much. I'm all for analytics and predictive metrics but man at some point you just to have know an outlier when you see one and stop calling it luck. 3 finals games in 4 years and 3 !!! whoopings our beloved specifically taking away the thing we are elite at. results matter.
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Literally, no one is arguing against Hurley as a coach.

The conversation is about that one specific play.
 
#1,389      
HoopsterMan
From the cheap seats said:
Kinda overlooked in this autopsy of Duke’s collapse against UConn is the Duke collapse against Houston…just 12 months earlier. Not sure 2 in a row is a trend yet, but I’m not ready to chalk it up to just bad luck.
Might have something to do with being heavily reliant on freshmen, even if they are one-and-dones.
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The collapse against Houston was worse - I think Duke could have simple stalled and won that game. They were up 9 with a little over 2 minutes to go and gave Houston 3 offensive rebounds in one possession. A rebound there and they win it.

Teams often resemble the calm their coach provides in preparation and how they conduct on the sidelines. They trust that coach, they execute when it matters. Scheyer's teams win with talent, but when they need him in tight ones, they look lost.
hangdog said:
I'm looking at it like good coaching isn't all about drawing up sequences. Illini fans should appreciate that.

I look at it like UCONN was down by 10 with under 7min again the #1 ranked team. Somehow they found the fortitude to get within 2 with time on the clock, when anything can happen. Looks like great coaching to me.

I'd rather have played Duke.
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I think Duke was the better matchup.
 
#1,390      
HoopsterMan
lstewart53x3 said:
Literally, no one is arguing against Hurley as a coach.

The conversation is about that one specific play.
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You can look at it two ways:

1) Outcome was the product of one lucky play. If so, then sure there was a good amount of luck that went into that. Boozer could have chosen about 4-5 different options and they would have won that game. He could have just throw it out of bounds, and odds were better. Someone said 25% from the logo under those elements, that is generous.
2) Outcome was the product of 40 minutes of basketball, where one coach blew a big lead and the other found a way back in. Then it's not luck - it's great coaching.
 
#1,391      
EmeraldCityIllini
mysterio2525 said:
the amount of ifs, buts, and if only's when talking about UConn is just too much. I'm all for analytics and predictive metrics but man at some point you just to have know an outlier when you see one and stop calling it luck. 3 finals games in 4 years and 3 !!! whoopings our beloved specifically taking away the thing we are elite at. results matter.
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I honestly only really think that about this year with UConn. I’m not sure anyone here is saying they got lucky at all in their 2 team steam rolling national titles
 
#1,392      
wc_illini
lstewart53x3 said:
Literally, no one is arguing against Hurley as a coach.

The conversation is about that one specific play.
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Tracing this thread back, it mostly started with:
BretMyBeachHouse said:
and in the unmeasurable category of post season coaching, UConn was better.

I see both sides.
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BretMyBeachHouse even clarified that this statement wasn't about one game (much less one play), but Hurley's overall tourney success. I still wouldn't necessarily prefer to have faced Duke, but the piling on about the luck on the last play seems a bit like a straw-man or at least a deflection from having to give Hurley any credit.
 
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