Illini Basketball 2026-2027

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#1,501      
From the cheap seats
Kinda overlooked in this autopsy of Duke’s collapse against UConn is the Duke collapse against Houston…just 12 months earlier. Not sure 2 in a row is a trend yet, but I’m not ready to chalk it up to just bad luck.
Might have something to do with being heavily reliant on freshmen, even if they are one-and-dones.
 
#1,502      
wc_illini
lstewart53x3 said:
Yeah, let’s start here.

Let’s imagine for a sec that the steal with a few seconds to go was defensive skill, not luck. Arguable for sure, but let’s stick with that.

Let’s focus solely on the shot. A shot from 40 feet out. What percentage of the time does that shot go in? Maybe 25% of the time?

Which means there’s a 75% chance he misses that shot. Had the shot not went in, they of course would have lost the game. Therefore, they were decently lucky to win that game.

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The last play surely involved luck, and we'll never know if coaching made any difference in how it played out. But even without the last sequence, they would have beaten the spread by 2.5, so there's some credit/blame to be had regardless.
 
#1,503      
EmeraldCityIllini
lstewart53x3 said:
Yeah, let’s start here.

Let’s imagine for a sec that the steal with a few seconds to go was defensive skill, not luck. Arguable for sure, but let’s stick with that.

Let’s focus solely on the shot. A shot from 40 feet out. What percentage of the time does that shot go in? Maybe 25% of the time?

Which means there’s a 75% chance he misses that shot. Had the shot not went in, they of course would have lost the game. Therefore, they were decently lucky to win that game.

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I think it’s perfectly okay to say Hurley coached well, and they were lucky to win haha.

We have a tendency, especially on this board, to think every win is good coaching, and every loss bad coaching.
 
#1,504      
NarrowJ
HoopsterMan said:
Of course. You can't anticipate a broken play, you can only coach your kids up to be ready for anything. The extra pass was almost as impressive as the shot.
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The mistake: made by a player, not the coach

The extra pass: made by a player, not the coach

The 40 foot heave: made by a player, not the coach

Nobody has denied Hurley is a great coach, we all think he is (at least that I've seen)

There is no secret magical divinely-intervented tactical play that automatically gets you the ball back and a 40 foot shot to go in with 5 seconds left

If that wasn't a lucky play, can you show me one that was?

"coach up your kids to be ready for anything" <-- all you are saying is he happens to coach the team that got lucky

hangdog said:
I'm looking at it like good coaching isn't all about drawing up sequences. Illini fans should appreciate that.

I look at it like UCONN was down by 10 with under 7min again the #1 ranked team. Somehow they found the fortitude to get within 2 with time on the clock, when anything can happen. Looks like great coaching to me.

I'd rather have played Duke.
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Agreed on the great coaching. The sequence at the end of the game was lucky for them, though.
 
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#1,505      
logjam
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Yes.

When it’s a close game, the outcome is ALWAYS reliant on the plays at the end.

What you did prior to that is just putting yourself in position for those final moments. BUT — what happens in those final moments determine whether what you did prior, is looked at as a failure or masterpiece.

If that 40 footer didn’t go in, the narrative would be “why did you get down 19 points.”

Because it went in, everyone will say “what an amazing effort to come back.”

Same thing with our UCLA play at the end.
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hangdog said:
I'm looking at it like good coaching isn't all about drawing up sequences. Illini fans should appreciate that.

I look at it like UCONN was down by 10 with under 7min again the #1 ranked team. Somehow they found the fortitude to get within 2 with time on the clock, when anything can happen. Looks like great coaching to me.

I'd rather have played Duke.
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I think we should kick Loyola's butt then start checking off other offenders...
 
#1,506      
mysterio2525
the amount of ifs, buts, and if only's when talking about UConn is just too much. I'm all for analytics and predictive metrics but man at some point you just to have know an outlier when you see one and stop calling it luck. 3 finals games in 4 years and 3 !!! whoopings our beloved specifically taking away the thing we are elite at. results matter.
 
#1,507      
lstewart53x3
mysterio2525 said:
the amount of ifs, buts, and if only's when talking about UConn is just too much. I'm all for analytics and predictive metrics but man at some point you just to have know an outlier when you see one and stop calling it luck. 3 finals games in 4 years and 3 !!! whoopings our beloved specifically taking away the thing we are elite at. results matter.
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Literally, no one is arguing against Hurley as a coach.

The conversation is about that one specific play.
 
#1,508      
HoopsterMan
From the cheap seats said:
Kinda overlooked in this autopsy of Duke’s collapse against UConn is the Duke collapse against Houston…just 12 months earlier. Not sure 2 in a row is a trend yet, but I’m not ready to chalk it up to just bad luck.
Might have something to do with being heavily reliant on freshmen, even if they are one-and-dones.
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The collapse against Houston was worse - I think Duke could have simple stalled and won that game. They were up 9 with a little over 2 minutes to go and gave Houston 3 offensive rebounds in one possession. A rebound there and they win it.

Teams often resemble the calm their coach provides in preparation and how they conduct on the sidelines. They trust that coach, they execute when it matters. Scheyer's teams win with talent, but when they need him in tight ones, they look lost.
hangdog said:
I'm looking at it like good coaching isn't all about drawing up sequences. Illini fans should appreciate that.

I look at it like UCONN was down by 10 with under 7min again the #1 ranked team. Somehow they found the fortitude to get within 2 with time on the clock, when anything can happen. Looks like great coaching to me.

I'd rather have played Duke.
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I think Duke was the better matchup.
 
#1,509      
HoopsterMan
lstewart53x3 said:
Literally, no one is arguing against Hurley as a coach.

The conversation is about that one specific play.
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You can look at it two ways:

1) Outcome was the product of one lucky play. If so, then sure there was a good amount of luck that went into that. Boozer could have chosen about 4-5 different options and they would have won that game. He could have just throw it out of bounds, and odds were better. Someone said 25% from the logo under those elements, that is generous.
2) Outcome was the product of 40 minutes of basketball, where one coach blew a big lead and the other found a way back in. Then it's not luck - it's great coaching.
 
#1,510      
EmeraldCityIllini
mysterio2525 said:
the amount of ifs, buts, and if only's when talking about UConn is just too much. I'm all for analytics and predictive metrics but man at some point you just to have know an outlier when you see one and stop calling it luck. 3 finals games in 4 years and 3 !!! whoopings our beloved specifically taking away the thing we are elite at. results matter.
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I honestly only really think that about this year with UConn. I’m not sure anyone here is saying they got lucky at all in their 2 team steam rolling national titles
 
#1,511      
wc_illini
lstewart53x3 said:
Literally, no one is arguing against Hurley as a coach.

The conversation is about that one specific play.
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Tracing this thread back, it mostly started with:
BretMyBeachHouse said:
and in the unmeasurable category of post season coaching, UConn was better.

I see both sides.
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BretMyBeachHouse even clarified that this statement wasn't about one game (much less one play), but Hurley's overall tourney success. I still wouldn't necessarily prefer to have faced Duke, but the piling on about the luck on the last play seems a bit like a straw-man or at least a deflection from having to give Hurley any credit.
 
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#1,514      
NarrowJ
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Crazy to me there's this many Hurley supporters on IllinoisLoyalty.
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Agreed, guy is a great coach but a giant tool bag. But our fanbase seems to worship him for some reason.

Brad got lucky that Florida lost to Iowa, but is that an indictment on his overall coaching ability? Of course not. And you don’t see me running around here forcing everyone to say he’s a great coach in response.
 
#1,515      
Fly Illini Fly!
wc_illini said:
Tracing this thread back, it mostly started with:

BretMyBeachHouse even clarified that this statement wasn't about one game (much less one play), but Hurley's overall tourney success. I still wouldn't necessarily prefer to have faced Duke, but the piling on about the luck on the last play seems a bit like a straw-man or at least a deflection from having to give Hurley any credit.
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I don't think it's a "deflection from having to give Hurley any credit."

What's resulted in this pile up is the claim that facing Duke would've been better for our chances of victory than UCONN (there's been numerous posts asserting that).

The reasoning for that claim has been Scheyer's an awful coach and Hurley's an awe-inspiring coach.

To that, people are just pointing out the final play of the Duke game didn't have anything to do with Scheyer or Hurley, and was just a fluky sequence of events in the most pivotal moment.
 
#1,517      
ejam21
lstewart53x3 said:
Yeah, let’s start here.

Let’s imagine for a sec that the steal with a few seconds to go was defensive skill, not luck. Arguable for sure, but let’s stick with that.

Let’s focus solely on the shot. A shot from 40 feet out. What percentage of the time does that shot go in? Maybe 25% of the time?

Which means there’s a 75% chance he misses that shot. Had the shot not went in, they of course would have lost the game. Therefore, they were decently lucky to win that game.

Click to expand...
And on top of that Mullins was 4-23 in the tourney and 0-4 in that very game on normal threes before swishing a 40 footer. Lucky af
 
#1,519      
BretMyBeachHouse
Fly Illini Fly! said:
I don't think it's a "deflection from having to give Hurley any credit."

What's resulted in this pile up is the claim that facing Duke would've been better for our chances of victory than UCONN (there's been numerous posts asserting that).

The reasoning for that claim has been Scheyer's an awful coach and Hurley's an awe-inspiring coach.

To that, people are just pointing out the final play of the Duke game didn't have anything to do with Scheyer or Hurley, and was just a fluky sequence of events in the most pivotal moment.
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Lol. Can you ever make an argument that doesn't introduce a strawman?

No one is saying Scheyer's awful.

The results right now point to Hurley being better.
 
#1,521      
Illini in Italy
RabidDawgClassic said:
But if our #6thman is relegated to #7thman, is our #8thman really good enough to become our #9thman? Most stressful offseason EVER!!!
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Confused Rooster Teeth GIF by Achievement Hunter
 
#1,523      
HoopsterMan
Fly Illini Fly! said:
I don't think it's a "deflection from having to give Hurley any credit."

What's resulted in this pile up is the claim that facing Duke would've been better for our chances of victory than UCONN (there's been numerous posts asserting that).

The reasoning for that claim has been Scheyer's an awful coach and Hurley's an awe-inspiring coach.

To that, people are just pointing out the final play of the Duke game didn't have anything to do with Scheyer or Hurley, and was just a fluky sequence of events in the most pivotal moment.
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Coaching or not, there is hard data over three games showing that system they run has us by the balls defensively. 3 lowest scoring games over three years isn't coincidence.
 
#1,524      
RabidDawgClassic
Fly Illini Fly! said:
I don't think it's a "deflection from having to give Hurley any credit."

What's resulted in this pile up is the claim that facing Duke would've been better for our chances of victory than UCONN (there's been numerous posts asserting that).

The reasoning for that claim has been Scheyer's an awful coach and Hurley's an awe-inspiring coach.

To that, people are just pointing out the final play of the Duke game didn't have anything to do with Scheyer or Hurley, and was just a fluky sequence of events in the most pivotal moment.
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*sigh* I never would've guessed I'd long for the days when the Loyalty board debate was about USC's bench prowess... yet here we are.
 
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