Illini Basketball 2026-2027

#277      
RollChief
wc_illini said:
I know I'm quibbling over something that was a tangent to the point of this post, and Fly! already mentioned this, but scoring efficiency is up overall. Normalized to the yearly average (AdjD/NCAA_avg_AdjD * 100), they were very typical:
View attachment 51218

I agree that if we could get halfway closer to Michigan's defense from last year (including playing at least as well against Q1A), our championship odds would look quite different.
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Yeah that’s a good counterpoint (and apologies if I missed the original point from you or Fly! about scoring efficiency)

I’m an optimist and I try to find ways in the numbers to try and prove that we can win a championship haha
 
#278      
Fly Illini Fly!
EmeraldCityIllini said:
Honestly, the fact one was second in efficiency and the other was third makes my general point.
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Well, Wagler also had to be the No. 1 scorer on that offense. Domask didn't need to be, as he had Shannon.

Both as a scorer AND facilitator, Wagler clears here.
EmeraldCityIllini said:
If you wanna say 5th overall pick Wagler, or Ayo, you’re probably right. But Domask was nails
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The condition you mentioned was "felt good with him having the ball."

For that exercise, yes, this would be my ranking:

1. Wagler
2. Ayo
3. Domask

The three boxes I'd look for in terms of "comfort having the ball" (by increasing priority):

1. Facilitator
2. Scorer
3. Quality of your offense

I'd put Keaton ever-so-slightly above Ayo because:

1. Ayo had a much higher assist rate. But Keaton had a much lower turnover rate (while maintaining a good assist rate).

2. Both were the same level of scorer. Ayo: 32.2 points per 100 possessions. Keaton: 32.2 points per 100 possessions. (Ayo's team just played faster)

3. This would be where Keaton clears. 2021 O Rating: 118.0. 2026 O Rating: 131.1. Also, the 2021 team was 125th in turnover rate, while the 2026 team was 8th.

Ayo did have a clutch gene unlike any other Illinois player I've seen. So if this was only the last 5 minutes of a game, it would be Ayo and it's not close. There were so many games we "could've" or "should've" lost that we didn't, just because of him. (that Nebraska game almost gave me a heart attack)
 
#279      
EmeraldCityIllini
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Well, Wagler also had to be the No. 1 scorer on that offense. Domask didn't need to be, as he had Shannon.

Both as a scorer AND facilitator, Wagler clears here.

The condition you mentioned was "felt good with him having the ball."

For that exercise, yes, this would be my ranking:

1. Wagler
2. Ayo
3. Domask

The three boxes I'd look for in terms of "comfort having the ball" (by increasing priority):

1. Facilitator
2. Scorer
3. Quality of your offense

I'd put Keaton ever-so-slightly above Ayo because:

1. Ayo had a much higher assist rate. But Keaton had a much lower turnover rate (while maintaining a good assist rate).

2. Both were the same level of scorer. Ayo: 32.2 points per 100 possessions. Keaton: 32.2 points per 100 possessions. (Ayo's team just played faster)

3. This would be where Keaton clears. 2021 O Rating: 118.0. 2026 O Rating: 131.1. Also, the 2021 team was 125th in turnover rate, while the 2026 team was 8th.

Ayo did have a clutch gene unlike any other Illinois player I've seen. So if this was only the last 5 minutes of a game, it would be Ayo and it's not close. There were so many games we "could've" or "should've" lost that we didn't, just because of him. (that Nebraska game almost gave me a heart attack)
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Ok so we all feel good with Domask having the ball here.

Behind only Wagler and ayo is amazing. Loved him
 
#280      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Well, Wagler also had to be the No. 1 scorer on that offense. Domask didn't need to be, as he had Shannon.

Both as a scorer AND facilitator, Wagler clears here.

The condition you mentioned was "felt good with him having the ball."

For that exercise, yes, this would be my ranking:

1. Wagler
2. Ayo
3. Domask

The three boxes I'd look for in terms of "comfort having the ball" (by increasing priority):

1. Facilitator
2. Scorer
3. Quality of your offense

I'd put Keaton ever-so-slightly above Ayo because:

1. Ayo had a much higher assist rate. But Keaton had a much lower turnover rate (while maintaining a good assist rate).

2. Both were the same level of scorer. Ayo: 32.2 points per 100 possessions. Keaton: 32.2 points per 100 possessions. (Ayo's team just played faster)

3. This would be where Keaton clears. 2021 O Rating: 118.0. 2026 O Rating: 131.1. Also, the 2021 team was 125th in turnover rate, while the 2026 team was 8th.

Ayo did have a clutch gene unlike any other Illinois player I've seen. So if this was only the last 5 minutes of a game, it would be Ayo and it's not close. There were so many games we "could've" or "should've" lost that we didn't, just because of him. (that Nebraska game almost gave me a heart attack)
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Keaton having a low turnover rate, is why I think he didn't end up with the same usage rate as some other STARS.

If he turned the ball over more, he probably would've had a higher usage.

During the draft process alot of people were saying he didn't have the same usage as some of the other 1st round guards.
 
#281      
Second place is 1st loser
RabidDawgClassic said:
He’s obviously not jumping or doing anything strenuous, but he IS putting pressure on that foot, so I choose to view this as a positive.
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It's what expected with any sort of fracture/non structural related injury. Doctors don't want you off your feet. Getting up and getting around promotes bone healing. Like you said, he's not going to be running the break in practices for the next month, but the injury was far, far, far less than some had feared. I suspect he'll go back to the doc in a few weeks, they'll take an x-,ray and will go from there. Just have to let mother nature and Fletch do their thing.
 
#286      
illini0440
Season 8 Wtf GIF by The Office
 
#287      
Fly Illini Fly!
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Keaton having a low turnover rate, is why I think he didn't end up with the same usage rate as some other STARS.

If he turned the ball over more, he probably would've had a higher usage.

During the draft process alot of people were saying he didn't have the same usage as some of the other 1st round guards.
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Darius Acuff had just a 11.6 TOV rate but still got to 29.5 usage. Terrance Shannon just had a 12.1 TOV rate but still got to 27.9 usage.

But usage by definition is: the quantity of possessions ending in a player's shot attempt, free throws, or turnover. So perhaps you might be right.

.....

Wagler last year: 25.7 usage | 23.2 assist rate | 12.5 TOV rate.

It's just rare for a player to be able to: 1) handle lots of usage 2) produce high assist rates .... WITHOUT turning the ball over.

Here's a graph of every HM player last year that produced at least a 20% assist rate AND had at least a 25% usage. Their turnover rates compared on the y axis:

Screenshot 2026-08-17 222926.png

Wagler is the orange dot on the 12.5 cut line^^

Here's the same graph for 2025: every HM player that produced at least a 20% assist rate AND had at least a 25% usage. Their turnover rates compared on the y axis:

Screenshot 2026-08-17 223025.png

Kasparas is the orange dot at the bottom of the data^^

If I could point to a single improvement from our PG position from 2025 to 2026, that's EXACTLY what it would be: handling the responsibility of being our leading scorer, highest usage player, highest assist-generating player .... WHILE not turning the ball over.

.....

It's rare for your primary ball handler to have Keaton's TOV rate, period. Let's use Illinois as the example:

2026: Wagler, 12.5 TOV
2025: Kasparas, 25.4 TOV (which is honestly bad, but it did happen).
2024: Domask, 16.4 TOV
2023: really did not have one, but I'll say Shannon since he had the best assist rate. 17.2 TOV
2022: Trent Frazier or Curbelo? Trent, 16.7 TOV. Curbelo, 26.7 TOV.
2021: Ayo, 18.0 TOV
 
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