InDaAZ
- Eugene, Oregon
Illini Basketball 2026-2027
Vaaks 3 point percentage should also increase with a better shot diet.
That game exposed the achilles heel of the offense when playing elite teams that have the size and athleticism to match up with Illinois.
The offense stagnated If Illinois was unable to force help defenders to come. If they could force help it created open looks and forced defenders to rotate which also left them out of rebounding position which in turn creates more open looks off offensive rebounds.
UConn did get away with being extremely physical but that is just how the NCAA tournament is called. They basically just stayed home defensively and forced Stojakovic and Wagler into a bunch of tough contested two's. Illinois did miss some bunnies that they should have made but the offense was never able to get into a rhythm or create any easy looks.
I think that Illinois will need to add some more off ball movement and sets into the offense to create some open looks if it wants to truly be an elite team that's capable of winning a national championship and beating the likes of Duke, Florida, etc. on the way to doing so. I just don't think you're going to consistently have success against those other elite teams if you're relying on converting contested 2s and off the dribble 3s.
The other hope is that Coleman adds some quickness to the roster and blow by guys and forcing defenses to help. Stojakovic can do this a bit but didn't really look to pass while attacking the basket and a lot of his game was simply finishing tough 2s over defenders.
so in an effort to show that it wasn’t limiting to mostly elite players, you chose elite players from an elite team to back that? hmm
I'd be a bit more skeptical about 3 point percentage increasing.
Here's our last 9 transfers - their 3 point percentage the season before transferring to Illinois, and their 3 point percentage the season after transferring to Illinois:
Domask: 34.8% before / 29.7% after
Gurrier: 34.7% before / 37.5% after
Harmon: 34.0% before / 30.6% after
Humrichous: 41.4% before / 34.3% after
Davis: 38.7% before / 34.4% after
Tre White: 29.9% before / 32.9% after
Boswell: 37.9% before / 24.5% after
Big Z: 37.6% before / 28.0% after
Andrej: 31.8% before / 24.4% after
So, 7 of our last 9 transfers shot a worse percentage after transferring here (at least in their first season, which will be the situation for Vaaks as well).
Would caveat by saying all offenses do not perform as well vs longer more athletic defenses. Thats not a thing that’s somehow just limited to Illinois’ elite offense.
The offense wasn’t as good as usual vs Houston either (better defense than UConn) but was good enough to win the game fairly comfortably.
I also watched that game vs UConn and the amount of shots that barely missed / rolled around the rim / rattled in and out was soul crushing in a way lol.
Do you understand how miniscule a sample size of 9 guys is? Also this has been covered multiple times in depth previously and the Illinois transfer 3 point shooting hex has been disproven each time.
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Is there anything you’re actually optimistic on?
I buy this the first tournament game against UCONN.
I can’t get too riled up with the looks in the final four game. Just make 3 more layups and we’re playing in a title game. That game was so cheeks - I legitimately think if that was a 7-game series we win in 6 or 5.
Houston had the size and athleticism with us and they got whalloped. We just missed so many bunnies and they hit like 4 or 5 just pure garbage, and WE still were in a 4 point game with a minute (and then Mullins moonwalked that wasn’t called.)
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Great take. While Andrej made 2's at an excellent rate, a lot of his shots are not analytically friendly and become much tougher against top teams with rim protection.
UConn has been top 5-10 nationally in Assist rate for the last 4 years. Not sure why we can't pick off a couple of their actions and employ. One of the wilder aspects of their last 4 years is that they've covered 19 of their last 20 tournament games. Think about that. Easy money on them in the tourney.
But that's my point with Houston.
They didn't really have the size to match up. 3 6'3 guards and an undersized big in Tugler alongside Cenac.
Also, Houstons defensive style and insistence on trapping actually played into the Illini's hands.
Illinois was big enough and skilled enough to simply pass over the double which then constantly put Houston into rotations and created open looks and good ball movement for Illinois.
UConn just played straight up and basically dared Wagler and company to beat them by making contested 2s.
Iowa actually employed the same game plan and it worked for a lot of that game but in the end they just weren't big or talented enough(that game turned a bit with Tomi scoring a few baskets in the post).
Yes, obviously offenses will perform worse against good defenses, but Illinois could really benefit from adding a few wrinkles that can create some open looks and easy baskets. Off balls movement/screens and some different sets designed to create an open look when you need it(close games, end scoring droughts, etc.)
skyIdub
"I can't tell you. Secret."
Beet juice?
UConn wasn't big / long, range from 6'2" to 6'10"
Give ol' Brad a call and have him install your stuff on offense, man. It's obvious that #2 nationally ranked offense needs a big shot in the arm.
6'3 Ball, 6'5 Demary, 6'6 Mullins, 6'8 Karaban, and 6'10 Reed with 6'7 Ross off the bench playing most of their minutes is certainly more equipped to handle the positional size of Illinois than Houston was playing 3 6'3 guards.
Plus, UConn didn't trap a incredibly large team that arguably had the best passing bigs in the country with the trio of Mirk and the twins. Illinois was basically just taking the trap out and then playing 4 on 3 with the ball in the hands of one of those bigs in the middle of the court.
Lol and it's not my stuff. You just take a page out of what the teams in the NBA are running or crib some stuff from Hurley/Murray or Hoiberg. If you want to legitimately compete for a title then you're going to have to beat the likes of Duke, Florida, or Michigan last year and so on.
You have a veteran team with a bunch of returning guys in the system. Why not add some wrinkles and some occasional sets? But hey if Brad wants to give me a call I'll help in anyway I can. I sure could have set up a better defensive set against UCLA on the last play of the game.
Not a dog in this fight, but here’s the stats for the UCONN / Houston comparison.
Illinois offense against Houston’s defense: 1.121 points per possession
Illinois offense against UCONN’s defense: 0.986 points per possession
UCONN offense against Illinois’s defense: 1.108 points per possession
1.121 points per possession is not outstanding (perhaps against Houston it might be) — but if we replicated that same output against UConn, we probably would’ve won, since UConn only scored 1.108 against our defense.
….
Here’s how our offense faired against each defense:
TO rate vs Houston: 15.5%
TO rate vs UCONN: 12.7%
Percentage of shots taken at the rim against Houston: 33.3%
Percentage of shots taken at the rim against UConn: 23.2%
Free throw rate against Houston: 41.2%
Free throw rate against UConn: 41.2%
OREB rate against Houston: 34.2%
OREB rate against UCONN: 30.8%
Percentage of Free Throws made against Houston: 12-21 (57%)
Percentage of Free Throws made against UConn: 18-23 (78%)
Percentage of layups made against Houston: 9-17 (53%)
Percentage of layups made against UConn: 6-13 (46%)
Percentage of threes made against Houston: 9-23 (39%)
Percentage of threes made against UConn: 6-26 (23%)
…..
For me it’s about that 3pt percentage.
Other than that:
Some things we did better against UConn than against Houston — free throws, turnovers.
Some things we did better against Houston than against UConn — rim, OREBs.
You just can’t shoot threes that poorly and expect to win a F4 game.
Maybe you’d say we should’ve gotten more OREBs, but you also have to realize UConn (93) is better defensive rebounding team than Houston (172) or Iowa (119) or VCU (159) or PENN (216).
At the end of the day, you just have to shoot it better than that.
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You’re right, Houston wasn’t big and I definitely think the over the top halfcourt showed there, as well as the rebounding ofcourse. But even then, that was still the 4th ranked defense.
I don’t mean to diminish the UConn point, and they do have length and a good defense. And sure we didn’t get easy ones off a double team, but I really thought they were good looks.
Like I get the argument you want some easy buckets, but did we not have some easy buckets we just smoked somehow?
Wasn't necessarily comparing them to Houston. UConn is probably middle of the pack as far as size & length, though. Frontcourt being 6'8 and 6'10 seems a bit undersized, though the guards have decent size. The POA there, they're very athletic and get into you. But we didn't really have issues with that having only 8 turnovers, we just shot 23% on 26 attempts from 3 and that was kind of the ball game (read further below).
And I know it's not your stuff, its just that...
Random person on internet: "We really need to improve this elite offense we're running, because it doesn't perform as well against good defenses. I'm basing this off a sample size of one game vs a top 5-10 defense. Also, I can handle late game defensive plays much better than this staff as well".
Sorry if its hard for me to take that too seriously.
Very good summary / rundown here, topped off with the largest discrepancy there was between the two games (three point shooting)
Absolutely. And we only turned it over 8 times and UConn recorded only 1 block, so it seems like their athletic defenders didn't really do us in and it was more that we bricked a whole bunch of 3s and bonked a few layups / easy 2s.
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