Illini Basketball 2026-2027

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#676      
HoopsterMan
Fly Illini Fly! said:
I have the Torvik ADJ offense ratings for both: each team AND the D1 average.

Here’s every top 2 offense each season; their ratings divided by the national average.

….

2026:

National average was 109.3. Purdue and Illinois were the #1 and #2 offenses.

Purdue: 133.3 / 109.3 = 1.220
Illinois: 131.8 / 109.3 = 1.209

….

2025:

National average was 106.7. Duke and Florida were the #1 and #2 offenses.

Duke: 130.6 / 106.7 = 1.224
Florida: 127.8 / 106.7 = 1.198

….

2024:

National average was 105.5. UCONN and Alabama were the #1 and #2 offenses.

UCONN: 128.0 / 105.5 = 1.213
Alabama: 126.1 / 105.5 = 1.195

(note: even with this logic, Purdue's offense in 2026 is supreme to UCONN's in 2024)

….

2023:

National average was 104.1. Gonzaga and Baylor were the #1 and #2 offenses.

Gonzaga: 123.2 / 104.1 = 1.183
Baylor: 121.7 / 104.1 = 1.169

….

2022:

National average was 102.3. Duke and Purdue were the #1 and #2 offenses.

Duke: 122.7 / 102.3 = 1.199
Purdue: 121.6 / 102.3 = 1.189

….

2021:

National average was 102.2. Gonzaga and Baylor were the #1 and #2 offenses.

Gonzaga: 125.9 / 102.2 = 1.232
Baylor: 124.9 / 102.2 = 1.222

….

If you want the team that was the furthest ahead of their time, I’m pretty sure it’s going to be 2015 Wisconsin.

2015 national average was 104.3.
Wisconsin’s rating was 130.5 / 104.3 = 1.251 (I don’t think anyone has come close to touching that ratio; at least since offenses have been tracked)
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Interesting data.


Here is a question:

Take a strong neutral defense, let's call it Arizona's this year. Give each team 10 possessions against them to score as many points as they can.

Do you take 2026 Purdue or 2024 UConn?

I know which way I'm going, for multiple reasons. I'm not sure where the flaw in the data is, but this one screams it. It makes me think the ying/yang of committing to offense sparing defense has impact in some way.
 
#677      
RandyfromTuscola
We really are in the dog days of summer with all of these posts about advanced analytics. Dear god, thank you for the minor distraction of Illinois Football on Thursday and then get our Big Ten schedule release in a couple of weeks so we can have something meaningful to talk about.

Or can some of the insiders, just feed us something...anything...so we don't have to argue about offensive ratings, Torvik, or the ratio of nose hairs to points scored by our recruits who grew up east of the Mississippi river and north of the Mason-Dixon line. 😵‍💫😵‍💫
 
#678      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
HoopsterMan said:
Should probably pump the breaks on historical status. KenPom's have become more and more inflated year over year because the nature of KP is evaluating against the mean, or the 177th-ish team. With how the portal/NIL have basically pushed all the talent to the top and stripped teams in the middle to not being competitive, the numbers become more an more skewed. I'd only look at KP's on an annual relative basis, not against previous or other years at this point.

For instance, Purdue was 131.6 to UConn 24's 127.5. In no world was Purdue last year on the same planet as that UConn team, further evidenced in how they toyed with a much better version of them in the NC game.

Last year was not the 2nd most efficient/best offense historically. They were really good, but not historically good.
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The point was that it's rare for a team to be top 5 in offense and top 30 in defense on Selection Sunday, and be less than a 2 seed (never happened before).

The fact that we were just speaks to how rare to is, how unlucky we were in close games, among other factors.

Has nothing to do with NIL or pushing talent to the top. It was rare in 2026 and it was equally rare in 2012 (like I said, it's never happened in the T-Rank database).
 
#679      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
HoopsterMan said:
Interesting data.


Here is a question:

Take a strong neutral defense, let's call it Arizona's this year. Give each team 10 possessions against them to score as many points as they can.

Do you take 2026 Purdue or 2024 UConn?

I know which way I'm going, for multiple reasons. I'm not sure where the flaw in the data is, but this one screams it. It makes me think the ying/yang of committing to offense sparing defense has impact in some way.
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2026 Purdue.

UCONN has the way better defense. Purdue has the marginally better offense.

Your logic is being skewed by confusing team stature with offense stature.

Team stature is about offense AND defense.

Offense stature is exclusively about the offense.
 
#680      
HoopsterMan
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
The point was that it's rare for a team to be top 5 in offense and top 30 in defense on Selection Sunday, and be less than a 2 seed (never happened before).

The fact that we were just speaks to how rare to is, how unlucky we were in close games, among other factors.

Has nothing to do with NIL or pushing talent to the top. It was rare in 2026 and it was equally rare in 2012 (like I said, it's never happened in the T-Rank database).
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I'd throw 2012 data out the window. The game has evolved big time in terms of talent distribution and swith it being so talent top heavy, it won't be as rare going forward. Zags were 6 and 29 last year and an 8 seed for what it's worth.

This is why I only see these data points as directional markers only.
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
2026 Purdue.

UCONN has the way better defense. Purdue has the marginally better offense.

Your logic is being skewed by confusing team stature with offense stature.

Team stature is about offense AND defense.

Offense stature is exclusively about the offense.
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UConn was 1 KPO and 4 in KPD. Yes their defense was very good and maybe that accounts for deterioration in their KPO, but I still take that UConn team 10 out of 10 times offensively over Purdue.

I'd take the UConn player over the Purdue players 1-5 with the only debate being Smith/Newton.

A data point for you - Maya has Castle's offensive efficiency at 3.7, Loyer's was 6+. You tell me who the better offensive player is. Fletcher Loyer is a fairly average college basketball player.
 
#681      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
HoopsterMan said:
I'd throw 2012 data out the window. The game has evolved big time in terms of talent distribution and swith it being so talent top heavy, it won't be as rare going forward.
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T-Rank database dates back to 2008.

Regardless of the “talent,” it hasn’t happened before. If something is a first time occurrence in literally decades, I think it’s fair to say it’s very rare. If Illinois has the same Offense / Defense ranks next year, I’d bet we’re at least a 2 seed (or higher).
HoopsterMan said:
Zags were 6 and 29 last year and an 8 seed for what it's worth.
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I said on Selection Sunday.

On Selection Day, Gonzaga was 11th in offense and 32nd in defense (2025; when they were a 8 seed).

No where close to top 5 offense. Not a top 30 defense either.

Illinois was 2nd and 24th last year.
HoopsterMan said:
This is why I only see these data points as directional markers only.

UConn was 1 KPO and 4 in KPD. Yes their defense was very good and maybe that accounts for deterioration in their KPO, but I still take that UConn team 10 out of 10 times offensively over Purdue.

I'd take the UConn player over the Purdue players 1-5 with the only debate being Smith/Newton.

A data point for you - Maya has Castle's offensive efficiency at 3.7, Loyer's was 6+. You tell me who the better offensive player is. Fletcher Loyer is a fairly average college basketball player.
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Castle’s main attribute was his defense (where he was awesome).

Tristen Newton was who ran the show offensively.
 
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#682      
Fly Illini Fly!
HoopsterMan said:
A data point for you - Maya has Castle's offensive efficiency at 3.7, Loyer's was 6+. You tell me who the better offensive player is. Fletcher Loyer is a fairly average college basketball player.
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Loyer averaged 14.1 points to Castle’s 11.1

He also had less turnovers (1.0 to 1.5).

His eFG% was 60.2%. Castle’s was 50.7%.

His 3pt% was 43.2%. Castle’s was 26.7%.

His FT% was 87.4%. Castle’s was 75.5%.
 
#683      
HoopsterMan
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Loyer averaged 14.1 points to Castle’s 11.1

He also had less turnovers (1.0 to 1.5).

His eFG% was 60.2%. Castle’s was 50.7%.

His 3pt% was 43.2%. Castle’s was 26.7%.

His FT% was 87.4%. Castle’s was 75.5%.
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Are you putting the ball in Loyer or Castle's hands against a great D when it matters? Castle might make an all nba team next year, Loyer might be an accountant.

Loyer averaged 8ppg UConn 24/Houston 25/Arizona 26. Castle averaged 18 ppg in the 24 final four.

I would also take Andrej over him.

Net net, NBA talent on the roster matters when things get real. We had that last year, and hoping we have that this year with Vaaks/Coleman. The F4 last year had 8 players drafted in the first round. The prior F4 had a handful as well.
 
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#684      
Fly Illini Fly!
Fly Illini Fly! said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/2093868227172475100
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Some more clips from this.

Coleman, nice moves:

IMB_wlySgr.gif


Boswell missed dunk:

IMB_8H4UGZ.gif


Wagler and Coleman basket:

IMB_T7Jngx.gif
 
#686      
Fly Illini Fly!
HoopsterMan said:
Net net, NBA talent on the roster matters when things get real. We had that last year, and hoping we have that this year with Vaaks/Coleman. The F4 last year had 8 players drafted in the first round. The prior F4 had a handful as well.
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Who had more NBA talent, Oakland or Kentucky?

IMG_1511.jpeg


…..

It’s funny because this time last year, people unanimously voted against having that “NBA talent” because they were young guys and young guys can’t help you win in March.

Just glad Keaton changed that narrative.
 
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#687      
Fly Illini Fly!
HoopsterMan said:
Are you putting the ball in Loyer or Castle's hands against a great D when it matters? Castle might make an all nba team next year, Loyer might be an accountant.
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It’s not about whose hands you want the ball in (neither player was a primary ball handler on their team).

Your magic word was efficiency:
HoopsterMan said:
A data point for you - Maya has Castle's offensive efficiency at 3.7, Loyer's was 6+. You tell me who the better offensive player is. Fletcher Loyer is a fairly average college basketball player.
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….

Loyer was more efficient (offensively).

Castle’s NBA potential is much higher (and no one’s doubting that).
 
#692      
ejam21
HoopsterMan said:
I'd throw 2012 data out the window. The game has evolved big time in terms of talent distribution and swith it being so talent top heavy, it won't be as rare going forward. Zags were 6 and 29 last year and an 8 seed for what it's worth.

This is why I only see these data points as directional markers only.

UConn was 1 KPO and 4 in KPD. Yes their defense was very good and maybe that accounts for deterioration in their KPO, but I still take that UConn team 10 out of 10 times offensively over Purdue.

I'd take the UConn player over the Purdue players 1-5 with the only debate being Smith/Newton.

A data point for you - Maya has Castle's offensive efficiency at 3.7, Loyer's was 6+. You tell me who the better offensive player is. Fletcher Loyer is a fairly average college basketball player.
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I'm sorry but fletcher loyer being a "fairly average college basketball player" in bonkers. He would get 7 figure offers in the portal if he had transferred

He finished just outside of hte top 10 in purdue history in scoring(11), which would rank top 70 in the b10 since 1947 per sports ref, as well as their all time 3pt makes leader and top 10 in b10 history (excluding 5 year players)

He's one of like 300 college basketball players to average 40+% from 3 for his whole career. That's like top tier of the 1% of shooters for a career. Our best was Cory bradford at 38.8%, Loyer was 41.1% for career (side note you would see plummer also at 40ish but he wasnt b10/illinois all 4 years)

Not sure who id take between castle/loyer in their last year in college at same time, but i damn sure would never call loyer average at the college level. He wasnt some sort of superstar, but far better than average

Going to go wash my hands after defending this dude LOL
 
#694      
Fly Illini Fly!
HoopsterMan said:
Furthermore, KP says their Defensive efficiency was 5.5 points better than the 24 Purdue team. So not only does KP data say that 26 Purdue has the best offense in 26, best offense all time, but also materially better in both offense and defense to their 24 team. Anyone with two eyeballs knows their 24 team was materially better.
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What are you talking about?

2024 Purdue defensive rating: 94.6 (12th nationally)

2026 Purdue defensive rating: 100.5 (36th nationally)

Not once has Kenpom said Purdue’s 2026 defense was better than their 2024 defense.

2026 Purdue gave up 108.1 ppp. In 2024, they gave up 100.3. That’d be an insane claim to say 2026 is better lol.
 
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