Illini Basketball 2026-2027

#51      
EmeraldCityIllini
HoopsterMan said:
I see it a bit differently, both on recent and historical data, when it counts.

As shared previously, 10 of the last 18 tournament MOP's have been PG's, including the last three. Of the other 8, 4 were shooting guards.

Great front courts keep your floor high, great guards elevate your ceiling. This is why I feel Duke's last two super talented teams flopped - their guards weren't great.

A lot hinges on Vaaks and Coleman becoming special to win this year.
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michigan is kinda a good example though. Cadeau got the counting stats, but no one actually thinks Cadeau was as valuable to that team as Yaxel, Mara, and Morez. There's a reason hes back at school, and those big guys were all top 12 picks. Tristan Newton was one of the MOP's you referenced, as Illini fan I know for sure who i feared more between Clingan and Newton lol. Sadly.

Like i said, I wouldn't be shocked if Fears gets it over Haugh because he'll have the pretty numbers (and hes really good!). No doubt a lot hinges on Vaaks and Coleman - its 40% of our starting lineup and close to 40% of our minutes so ofcourse, but I think a lot hinges on all our guys.

I do disagree slightly on Duke - you don't think Kon was an awesome guard? Last year, sure - especially because one of the guards was hurt in the tourney.
 
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#52      
OB positive
HoopsterMan said:
I see it a bit differently, both on recent and historical data, when it counts.

As shared previously, 10 of the last 18 tournament MOP's have been PG's, including the last three. Of the other 8, 4 were shooting guards.

Great front courts keep your floor high, great guards elevate your ceiling. This is why I feel Duke's last two super talented teams flopped - their guards weren't great.

A lot hinges on Vaaks and Coleman becoming special to win this year.
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That and Duke's head coach.
 
#53      
March2TheArch
Det_Illini_fan said:
Mirks injury won’t be a factor by then.
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I'd love to adopt your view on this. But any time a 250lb human has an injury on a foot he's constantly pivoting, cutting, jumping, etc. off you want to be cautiously optimistic.

2 months away from full speed, full contact basketball during prime prepratory months of August / September will create a debt of strength & conditioning and team chemisty build with a new cast (Coleman, Vaaks, Lincoln Williams). That said, if there's any guy I trust to get right physically and mentally quickly it would be Dah-veed Mir-kovic.
 
#54      
EmeraldCityIllini
March2TheArch said:
I'd love to adopt your view on this. But any time a 250lb human has an injury on a foot he's constantly pivoting, cutting, jumping, etc. off you want to be cautiously optimistic.

2 months away from full speed, full contact basketball during prime prepratory months of August / September will create a debt of strength & conditioning and team chemisty build with a new cast (Coleman, Vaaks, Lincoln Williams). That said, if there's any guy I trust to get right physically and mentally quickly it would be Dah-veed Mir-kovic.
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I agree on being somewhat skeptical Mirk will be Mirk atleast very early on .

The good news is, we’ve turned that into positives in recent years with player and role development
 
#55      
AnnoyedWithGarza
March2TheArch said:

He’s going to get much, much easier looks. This is hyper exciting. He’s going to have so much gravity which will open up lanes for Quentin and Dre. It’s going to be a pick your poison defending us.

If not for Mirk’s injury, I would have been very confident that we could beat everybody but Duke in the non-conference. @ Duke when they’re the #1/2 team in the country is just a win-win scenario. A win is worth a seed line. A loss doesn’t hurt you one bit so long as we’re not blown out.
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I'm not sure how anyone can watch this and say "not a PG."
 
#56      
HoopsterMan
EmeraldCityIllini said:
michigan is kinda a good example though. Cadeau got the counting stats, but no one actually thinks Cadeau was as valuable to that team as Yaxel, Mara, and Morez. There's a reason hes back at school, and those big guys were all top 12 picks. Tristan Newton was one of the MOP's you referenced, as Illini fan I know for sure who i feared more between Clingan and Newton lol. Sadly.

Like i said, I wouldn't be shocked if Fears gets it over Haugh because he'll have the pretty numbers (and hes really good!). No doubt a lot hinges on Vaaks and Coleman - its 40% of our starting lineup and close to 40% of our minutes so ofcourse, but I think a lot hinges on all our guys.

I do disagree slightly on Duke - you don't think Kon was an awesome guard? Last year, sure - especially because one of the guards was hurt in the tourney.
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Get that - but Cadeau was the difference maker in the title game. PG's are at the POA, leaders, distributors, conductor and catalysts. This is what I mean about a FC establishing your floor and guards establishing your ceiling.

I don't think NBA potential is a fair way to assess a college PG's value to a team. They're usually small at the college level.

I don't think Kon was a guard at all, I think he was a SF. Duke had ridiculous talent at SF, PF and C. Sion James and Tyrese Proctor were an imbalanced backcourt. Scheyer tried to go positionless with Flagg as a point forward - bad idea.

There is a difference in play/style at the college level and NBA. In CBB they're kids, haven't faced major pressure and usually only play together for 1-2 years these days. NBA are men, play together for years. Why the PG is a factor in college.
 
#57      
RollChief
AnnoyedWithGarza said:
I'm not sure how anyone can watch this and say "not a perfect initiator for Illinois' offensive system."
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Modified your statement a bit but totally agree. It's impossible to replace KW but Vaaks seems like a great action initiator in our offensive scheme. Someone else mentioned it but his ability to shoot off the bounce will draw so much defensive attention which will allow the rest of our offensive talent to gain advantages each possession, especially if guys are getting downhill to offensive rebound and keep that OReb% one of the best in the country.
 
#58      
lstewart53x3
AnnoyedWithGarza said:
I'm not sure how anyone can watch this and say "not a PG."
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They’re not looking at that. They’re looking at this

IMG_1479.jpeg
 
#60      
EmeraldCityIllini
HoopsterMan said:
Get that - but Cadeau was the difference maker in the title game. PG's are at the POA, leaders, distributors, conductor and catalysts. This is what I mean about a FC establishing your floor and guards establishing your ceiling.

I don't think NBA potential is a fair way to assess a college PG's value to a team. They're usually small at the college level.

I don't think Kon was a guard at all, I think he was a SF. Duke had ridiculous talent at SF, PF and C. Sion James and Tyrese Proctor were an imbalanced backcourt. Scheyer tried to go positionless with Flagg as a point forward - bad idea.

There is a difference in play/style at the college level and NBA. In CBB they're kids, haven't faced major pressure and usually only play together for 1-2 years these days. NBA are men, play together for years. Why the PG is a factor in college.
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I just think we’re talking chicken or the egg here. My point is Michigan in the aggregate needed all those guys to maximize their team - without those 3 big men, we don’t think Cadeau leads them to a title, right? And your point would be vice versa.

It’s true Illini guards will probably determine their ceiling this year, but that’s only cuz our ceiling is sky high because the frontcourt is already locked and loaded - if our bigs weren’t good our ceiling by Vaaks and Coleman isn’t national title good. It’s the same for Florida (although I’d argue I’d take our guards and maybe slightly lean their bigs, but the idea is the same).

MSU? Vice versa. You need both spots good - I think Kenpom shows that.
 
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#61      
HoopsterMan
EmeraldCityIllini said:
I just think we’re talking chicken or the egg here. My point is Michigan in the aggregate needed all those guys to maximize their team - without those 3 big men, we don’t think Cadeau leads them to a title, right? And your point would be vice versa.

It’s true Illini guards will probably determine their ceiling this year, but that’s only cuz our ceiling is sky high because the frontcourt is already locked and loaded - if our bigs weren’t good our ceiling by Vaaks and Coleman isn’t national title good. It’s the same for Florida (although I’d argue I’d take our guards and maybe slightly lean their bigs, but the idea is the same).

MSU? Vice versa. You need both spots good - I think Kenpom shows that.
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If you want to know how the floor looks with a top 2 front court, look no further than Florida last year. It kept them high against a soft SEC, tanked against top flight OOC competition.
 
#64      
EmeraldCityIllini
HoopsterMan said:
If you want to know how the floor looks with a top 2 front court, look no further than Florida last year. It kept them high against a soft SEC, tanked against top flight OOC competition.
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We can do this all day.

Houston lost a stud big man, replaced them with a top 10 pick guard along with their other 2 veteran guards and went from the doorsteps of a title to wrecked in a sweet 16. I’d take Houston’s backcourt over Michigans backcourt last year in a heartbeat

saying you need an overall good team shouldn’t be controversial
 
#65      
HoopsterMan
NarrowJ said:
Florida had the 4th most Q1 wins in the country last year
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OOC vs tourney teams

Duke - L
UConn - L
Arizona - L
TCU - L
Iowa - L
Miami Fl - W
Sixteen Seed - W

If not for a Texas run and an Iowa St injury, SEC would have had a pretty bleh performance in the dance. Florida mauled a lot of SEC teams that played no defense and couldn't rebound.
 
#66      
NarrowJ
HoopsterMan said:
OOC vs tourney teams

Duke - L
UConn - L
Arizona - L
TCU - L
Iowa - L
Miami Fl - W
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The Q1 bucket I referenced is 3x the sample size

Losing to Duke/UConn/Arizona certainly didn't hurt the resume in any way, shape or form
 
#68      
Fly Illini Fly!
NarrowJ said:
The Q1 bucket I referenced is 3x the sample size

Losing to Duke/UConn/Arizona certainly didn't hurt the resume in any way, shape or form
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Florida only had FOUR Quad 1A wins. That’s rather pretty low for a 1seed.

For context: Michigan had 10. Duke and Arizona both had 9.

2025: Auburn had 9. FLA and Houston each had 7. Duke had 6.
 
#69      
NarrowJ
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Florida only had FOUR Quad 1A wins. That’s rather pretty low for a 1seed.

For context: Michigan had 10. Duke and Arizona both had 9.

2025: Auburn had 9. FLA and Houston each had 7. Duke had 6.
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Losing the trio of games vs Arizona/UConn/Duke really hurt them in that aspect (Q1A) and is a great point.

Teams like Louisville and Wisconsin seem to me to be inverse examples where the frontcourt isn’t the strength.
 
#70      
HoopsterMan
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Florida only had FOUR Quad 1A wins. That’s rather pretty low for a 1seed.

For context: Michigan had 10. Duke and Arizona both had 9.

2025: Auburn had 9. FLA and Houston each had 7. Duke had 6.
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Felt like the default 1, after UConn spittled down the stretch again Marquette and Creighton.
 
#71      
Fly Illini Fly!
NarrowJ said:
Losing the trio of games vs Arizona/UConn/Duke really hurt them in that aspect (Q1A) and is a great point.

Teams like Louisville and Wisconsin seem to me to be inverse examples where the frontcourt isn’t the strength.
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They avoided the hard road games in the SEC. They didn't play @Alabama, nor @Tennesee, nor @Arkansas.

@Vandy was their only legitimate non-home win. And they lost to them 91-74 in the SECT.

They played very well at home, and had huge margins of victory (which was ultimately their calling card).
 
#72      
Fly Illini Fly!
HoopsterMan said:
I see it a bit differently, both on recent and historical data, when it counts.

As shared previously, 10 of the last 18 tournament MOP's have been PG's, including the last three. Of the other 8, 4 were shooting guards.

Great front courts keep your floor high, great guards elevate your ceiling. This is why I feel Duke's last two super talented teams flopped - their guards weren't great.

A lot hinges on Vaaks and Coleman becoming special to win this year.
Click to expand...
Wisconsin had really good guards, but lost in the 1st round to High Point. The makeup of your whole team is important.
mysterio2525 said:
it's true. egor demon was a center.... everyone knows this. magic Johnson, same thing. he's too tall to pass!
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MAN, would that have been the perfect example:

1788403172255.png
 
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#73      
NarrowJ
Fly Illini Fly! said:
They avoided the hard road games in the SEC. They didn't play @Alabama, nor @Tennesee, nor @Arkansas.

@Vandy was their only legitimate non-home win. And they lost to them 91-74 in the SECT.

They played very well at home, and had huge margins of victory (which was ultimately their calling card).
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Yeah they only played (and beat) #10 Vanderbilt on the road, so they did have a cupcake-ish SEC schedule

Makes sense they had a worse record OOC if that was where all of their most difficult games landed on the schedule
 
#74      
HoopsterMan
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Wisconsin had really good guards, but lost in the 1st round to High Point. The makeup of your whole team is important.

MAN, would that have been the perfect example:

View attachment 51427
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Egor is a pretty good call actually. Then Young pivots to as traditional of a college PG as it gets in Wright, which is interesting. I'm staying open to this and it's growing on me.
 
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