Illinois returns five rotation players from last season's Final Four team
247sports.com
For those interested, here is the
full list.
1. Illinois - 498 (18)
2. Michigan State - 483 (9)
3. Michigan - 436 (1)
4. UCLA - 375
5. Nebraska - 369
6. Purdue - 347
7. USC - 340
8. Ohio State - 324
9. Indiana - 292
10. Iowa - 264
11. Wisconsin - 240
12. Maryland - 203
13. Minnesota 168
14. Oregon - 147
15. Washington - 116
16. Northwestern - 88
17. Rutgers- 68
18. Penn State - 35
And if we consider the top 4 the "upper tier" of contenders, these are their schedules ordered by these rankings:
#1 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
vs. #2 Michigan State
at #3 Michigan
vs. #4 UCLA
-------------------------------
vs. #5 Nebraska
at #6 Purdue
vs. #6 Purdue
vs. #7 USC
vs. #8 Ohio State
at #9 Indiana
vs. #10 Iowa
at #11 Wisconsin
vs. #11 Wisconsin
at #12 Maryland
at #13 Minnesota
at #14 Oregon
-------------------------------
at #15 Washington
at #16 Northwestern
vs. #16 Northwestern
at #17 Rutgers
vs. #18 Penn State
--- 3 vs. Top 4 (2H, 1A)
--- 12 vs. Middle (6H, 6A)
--- 5 vs. Bottom 4 (2H, 3A)
#2 MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
at #1 Illinois
at #3 Michigan
vs. #3 Michigan
at #4 UCLA
-------------------------------
at #5 Nebraska
vs. #5 Nebraska
vs. #6 Purdue
at #7 USC
at #8 Ohio State
at #9 Indiana
at #10 Iowa
vs. #11 Wisconsin
at #12 Maryland
vs. #12 Maryland
vs. #13 Minnesota
vs. #14 Oregon
-------------------------------
vs. #15 Washington
at #16 Northwestern
vs. #17 Rutgers
vs. #18 Penn State
--- 4 vs. Top 4 (1H, 3A)
--- 12 vs. Middle (6H, 6A)
--- 4 vs. Bottom 4 (3H, 1A)
#3 MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
vs. #1 Illinois
at #2 Michigan State
vs. #2 Michigan State
at #4 UCLA
-------------------------------
at #5 Nebraska
vs. #6 Purdue
at #7 USC
at #8 Ohio State
vs. #8 Ohio State
at #9 Indiana
vs. #10 Iowa
at #11 Wisconsin
vs. #12 Maryland
at #13 Minnesota
vs. #13 Minnesota
vs. #14 Oregon
-------------------------------
vs. #15 Washington
vs. #16 Northwestern
at #17 Rutgers
at #18 Penn State
--- 4 vs. Top 4 (2H, 2A)
--- 12 vs. Middle (6H, 6A)
--- 4 vs. Bottom 4 (2H, 2A)
#4 UCLA BRUINS
at #1 Illinois
vs. #2 Michigan State
vs. #3 Michigan
-------------------------------
at #5 Nebraska
at #6 Purdue
at # 7 USC
vs. #7 USC
vs. #8 Ohio State
at #9 Indiana
vs. #10 Iowa
vs. #11 Wisconsin
at #12 Maryland
vs. #13 Minnesota
at #14 Oregon
vs. #14 Oregon
-------------------------------
at #15 Washington
vs. #15 Washington
at #16 Northwestern
at #17 Rutgers
vs. #18 Penn State
--- 3 vs. Top 4 (2H, 1A)
--- 12 vs. Middle (6H, 6A)
--- 5 vs. Bottom 4 (3H, 2A)
COMPARISON OF GAMES VS. TOP 4
Illinois - 3 vs. Top 4 (2H, 1A)
UCLA - 3 vs. Top 4 (2H, 1A)
Michigan - 4 vs. Top 4 (2H, 2A)
Michigan State - 4 vs. Top 4 (1H, 3A)
[All Top 4 Teams Have 12 Games vs. the Middle (6 Home and 6 Away)]
COMPARISON of GAMES VS. BOTTOM 4
UCLA - 5 vs. Bottom 4 (3H, 2A)
Illinois - 5 vs. Bottom 4 (2H, 3A)
Michigan State - 4 vs. Bottom 4 (3H, 1A)
Michigan - 4 vs. Bottom 4 (2H, 2A)
So in those categories, we have the easiest lineup of games vs. the Top 4, and we have the second easiest lineup of games vs. the Bottom 4. Also, let's be real ... we don't have to play THE FIGHTING ILLINI like the other contenders.
I really feel like we have an excellent chance at our first regular season title since 2022 this year.
I think a huge win we need to nab early is January 2 at Wisconsin. We will hopefully be 2-0 (winning at Minnesota and vs. PSU), the students will not be back in town and we will have the following games coming up that can really allow us to build a lead in the conference standings and gain some momentum:
Jan. 5 - vs. #6 Purdue
Jan. 9 - vs. #8 Ohio State
Jan. 13 - at #16 Northwestern
Jan. 16 - at #12 Maryland
Jan. 19 - vs. #5 Nebraska
Jan. 24 - at #9 Indiana
Jan. 27 - vs. #7 USC
We will enter all of those games as favorites, and it would be absolutely awesome to sit at 10-0 in Big Ten play (i.e., undefeated and past the halfway mark!!) before we head to Nashville for a break to play UNC. We then start this absolute gauntlet, where we can at least drop a game or two and still be in the driver's seat. It will be essential to be H-E-A-L-T-H-Y as we begin this brutal stretch.
Feb. 2 - vs. #4 UCLA
Feb. 5 - vs. #2 Michigan State
Feb. 9 - at #3 Michigan
Feb. 12 - at #6 Purdue
I mean, that is just a murder's row! If we can get out of that with a 2-2 record, we would be sitting at 12-2 in-conference, and the rest of our schedule is INCREDIBLY manageable compared to what we will have just gone through.
Feb. 16 - vs. #16 Northwestern
Feb. 20 - at #14 Oregon
Feb. 23 - at #15 Washington
Feb. 28 - vs. #11 Wisconsin
March 3 - vs. #17 Rutgers
March 6 - vs. #10 Iowa
TL;DR
After looking over that poll, I am a lot more optimistic about a regular season championship! I know anything can happen in college hoops, but I really do think our schedule stacks up very nicely. Some folks might be so Tournament-minded that they feel a regular season conference title isn't that important. I very much disagree, but think about this instead ... in this year's Big Ten, winning the league sets you up QUITE nicely for a #1 seed, and that is the single best way to get back to the Final Four.
In 3 of the last 6 seasons, the regular season Big Ten champion has been a #1 seed, and the champion has been a #2 seed or better in 4 of the last 6 years. The exceptions were 2022 (#3 and #4) and 2024 (#3) when the league was perceived to be weak nationally ... that will not be the case this year. And just as a reminder for everyone - courtesy of Illinois' very own
Bracket Odds Analysis!! - the odds* of improving on last year's Final Four run and especially cutting down the nets decrease pretty sharply as you go down the seed line:
National Championship
65.9% #1 Seed
12.2% #2 Seed
9.8% #3 Seed
4.9% #4 Seed
National Title Game Appearance
51.2% #1 Seed
17.1% #2 Seed
13.4% #3 Seed
4.9% #4 Seed
Let's go win a conference AND national title!
* Check out the site for the explanation of how the percentages are calculated.
