Illini Basketball

RockfordIllini · Mar 23, 2022

Hopingfor500 said:
This might be unpopular, but maybe others agree...

I think the Big Ten the last two years has been very, very overated. I'm not saying that it was not good, but it was not 9 teams in the NCAA worthy.

As such, I think that while we were better than Loyola, the gap wasn't much. I'm ok using the deer in the headlights perspective there.

However, we weren't as good as Houston this year and the disparity, while not great, was clearly evident. They were more athletic, they were bigger on the perimeter and they had multiple ways to score. We were undersized and limited offensively.

From my perspective, it had nothing to do with BU's coaching this time around. They were just better than us and he has to bring in the size and athleticism to compete with teams of that caliber. I think that applies to all Big Ten teams, which is why we're seeing these results in back to back years.

Eh, I don’t know about over rated.

I think we had a lot of good, not great teams this year, with few capable of making it to the second weekend. Rutgers had a good chance to beat ND, IU won their play in game. MSU won in the first round, etc. Iowa is the only one you could really say laid an egg this year. Based on the seedings, you wouldn’t expect more than 2-3 teams to make it to the S16. We got 2, which is in line with other P5 conferences. I realize ACC and Big 12 had 3, but that’s not drastically more than the BIG.

We probably had 8-9 teams in the 10-50 range, which is a really good conference. But realistically, you wouldn’t expect many teams in that range to make it in the second weekend. Not like we had a bunch of 1 and 2 seeds lose early like last year.

Hopingfor500 · Mar 23, 2022

RockfordIllini said:
Eh, I don’t know about over rated.

I think we had a lot of good, not great teams this year, with few capable of making it to the second weekend. Rutgers had a good chance to beat ND, IU won their play in game. MSU won in the first round, etc. Iowa is the only one you could really say laid an egg this year. Based on the seedings, you wouldn’t expect more than 2-3 teams to make it to the S16. We got 2, which is in line with other P5 conferences. I realize ACC and Big 12 had 3, but that’s not drastically more than the BIG.

We probably had 8-9 teams in the 10-50 range, which is a really good conference. But realistically, you wouldn’t expect many teams in that range to make it in the second weekend. Not like we had a bunch of 1 and 2 seeds lose early like last year.

I definitely agree with that. There were good teams, not great teams and the seedings/results demonstrated that.

jumpingjack · Mar 23, 2022

lstewart53x3 said:
Final thoughts regarding the freshman:

Most assume that a player only improves by playing game minutes and the more game minutes they play, the better the player becomes.

If that were the case, why then do we typically see the biggest jump in player improvement happen in the summer between two seasons, when no games are being played?

Kinda seems like improvement tends to happen in practice, not games.

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Illinifan533 · Mar 23, 2022

Hopingfor500 said:
From my perspective, it had nothing to do with BU's coaching this time around. They were just better than us and he has to bring in the size and athleticism to compete with teams of that caliber. I think that applies to all Big Ten teams, which is why we're seeing these results in back to back years.

Case in point: Purdue and Michigan have the type size and athleticism you're referring to and are in the only conference teams in the Sweet 16.,

JJE · Mar 23, 2022

illini0440 said:
Right behind Kofi.

The insiders have been throwing a lot of red meat out here for the common folk the past couple of days....
And...

Emerson Bigguns · Mar 23, 2022

Illinifan533 said:
Case in point: Purdue and Michigan have the type size and athleticism you're referring to and are in the only conference teams in the Sweet 16.,

I reject the notion that we didn’t have the talent. We were too beat up. Two of our three best shooters couldn’t shoot.
We knock down a couple more wide open 3’s (they were there), it’s a different game.

Chukwuwumba · Mar 23, 2022

illini0440 said:
We got into a lot of our half court sets this year through Jake…..sorely missed

Believe I heard on one of the podcasts that Jake was the best passer to feed the post, especially in the 2nd half (of games I think)

Bigtex · Mar 23, 2022

lstewart53x3 said:
Wouldn’t it have sucked to have played the freshman more and because they weren’t quite ready at the time, lost an additional 1-2 games, which cost us the B1G championship …

… and *still* lost to Houston because they were a better team and the marginal increase in skill that our freshman received by playing more minutes wasn’t enough to make a difference?

Then we’d have absolutely nothing to show for this season.

Or wouldn’t it have been great if they played and contributed and we beat Ohio st at home

Williams 2 points 2 rebounds in 26 minutes

Or beat Purdue at home:

Williams 3 points 6 rebounds 4 assists in 45 minutes
Goode same 3 points 1 rebound in 6 minutes RJ DNP

And won b1g outright

alaskaillini · Mar 23, 2022

To address those claims that BU has massively underperformed in the tourney, I dug out some data on blue bloods - Duke and Kansas - and MSU (because Izzo is arguably one of the best tourney coaches based upon results. This data is for last 20 years with one year cancelled due to Covid.

MSU - Izzo
19 appearances in 19 years
5 final fours

Hopingfor500 · Mar 23, 2022

Emerson Bigguns said:
I reject the notion that we didn’t have the talent. We were too beat up. Two of our three best shooters couldn’t shoot.
We knock down a couple more wide open 3’s (they were there), it’s a different game.

Those shooting/offensive issues tracked back to the beginning of February. The last game that wasn't a meat grinder was versus Indiana @ Bloomington. The notion that this was a 2 game issue is in Pittsburgh is wrong.

We we're very, very average the last six weeks of the season. We finished 6-5 down the stretch and those games were highlighted by limited, one dimensional offense. Frazier and Plummer were so undersized in the backcourt and trotting Williams out there to guard the 4 in some instances...there's only much you can do with that. Those kids played so hard, but unfortunately, size does matter in basketball, as does athleticism. In the absence of both....it's tough.

Losing Miller hurt and obviously losing Ayo hurt. That was a 6'4" and 6'5" backcourt, which when combined with Frazier.....it worked. Our boys took this season as far as they were going to rationally take it. Houston, physically, was just bigger, stronger and better.

illini0440 · Mar 23, 2022

alaskaillini said:
To address those claims that BU has massively underperformed in the tourney, I dug out some data on blue bloods - Duke and Kansas - and MSU (because Izzo is arguably one of the best tourney coaches based upon results. This data is for last 20 years with one year cancelled due to Covid.

MSU - Izzo
19 appearances in 19 years
5 final fours

Jay Wright….didn’t make it to a sweet sixteen in his first 5 or 6 years at Nova(or something close to that) I can’t remember exactly

alaskaillini · Mar 23, 2022

To address those claims that BU has massively underperformed in the tourney, I dug out some data on blue bloods - Duke, N Car and Kansas - and MSU (because Izzo is arguably one of the best tourney coaches based upon results). This data is for last 20 years with one year cancelled due to Covid.

MSU - Izzo
19 appearances in 19 years
seeds: 1(1), 2(3), 3(2), 4(1), 5(3), 6(1), 7(4), 9(2), 10(1), 11(1)
5 final fours
2 elite 8s
9 first weekend exits (5 in first game)

Duke - Coach K
18 appearances in 19 years
seeds: 1(7), 2(7), 3(2), 4(1), 6(1)
3 final fours w/ 2 of those ending in titles
3 elite 8s
5 first weekend exits (3 in first game)

Kansas - Self
18 appearances in 18 years (only coached 19 years at Kansas)
seeds: 1(9), 2(3), 3(3), 4(3)
3 final fours ending in 1 title
5 elite 8s
7 first weekend exits (2 in first game)

N Carolina - Williams
17 appearances in 18 years (only 19 years at NC)
seeds: 1(8), 2(1), 3(1), 4(1), 6(2), 8(3)
5 final fours ending in 3 titles
3 elite 8s
6 first weekend exits (1 in first game)

So the best in the business combined total:

72 appearances
16 final fours (with 6 titles)
13 elite 8s
27 first weekend exits (11 in the first game) with all of the teams/coaches having had back-to-back first weekend losses at some point

To be successful in the tourney, you need to get there a lot, and with highly rated teams. The best teams in the business lose over 30% of their time in the first weekend often (more than 20% of the time) as a top 4 seed. Before giving hot takes over whether Underwood is a good tourney coach, people might want to consider (1) the data is pretty slim at this point, (2) Illinois is not a blueblood program full of McDAAs and (3) he has proven he can coach during the regular season.

Just some food for thought.

Illiniguy13 · Mar 23, 2022

alaskaillini said:
To address those claims that BU has massively underperformed in the tourney, I dug out some data on blue bloods - Duke, N Car and Kansas - and MSU (because Izzo is arguably one of the best tourney coaches based upon results). This data is for last 20 years with one year cancelled due to Covid.

MSU - Izzo
19 appearances in 19 years
seeds: 1(1), 2(3), 3(2), 4(1), 5(3), 6(1), 7(4), 9(2), 10(1), 11(1)
5 final fours
2 elite 8s
9 first weekend exits (5 in first game)

Duke - Coach K
18 appearances in 19 years
seeds: 1(7), 2(7), 3(2), 4(1), 6(1)
3 final fours w/ 2 of those ending in titles
3 elite 8s
5 first weekend exits (3 in first game)

Kansas - Self
18 appearances in 18 years (only coached 19 years at Kansas)
seeds: 1(9), 2(3), 3(3), 4(3)
3 final fours ending in 1 title
5 elite 8s
7 first weekend exits (2 in first game)

N Carolina - Williams
17 appearances in 18 years (only 19 years at NC)
seeds: 1(8), 2(1), 3(1), 4(1), 6(2), 8(3)
5 final fours ending in 3 titles
3 elite 8s
6 first weekend exits (1 in first game)

So the best in the business combined total:

72 appearances
16 final fours (with 6 titles)
13 elite 8s
27 first weekend exits (11 in the first game) with all of the teams/coaches having had back-to-back first weekend losses at some point

To be successful in the tourney, you need to get there a lot, and with highly rated teams. The best teams in the business lose over 30% of their time in the first weekend often (more than 20% of the time) as a top 4 seed. Before giving hot takes over whether Underwood is a good tourney coach, people might want to consider (1) the data is pretty slim at this point, (2) Illinois is not a blueblood program full of McDAAs and (3) he has proven he can coach during the regular season.

Just some food for thought.

One thing we can be confident in is that we’ll be a perennial tournament team under Brad. As a fan that’s so refreshing. I’d say more often than not we’ll have a low seed, so it’s a numbers game. We certainly would rather make a deeper run sooner rather than later, but it’ll happen

alaskaillini · Mar 23, 2022

I saw that Illini040 mentioned Jay Wright and Villanova. Here is data on them.

Villanova - Wright
16 appearances in 19 years
seeds: 1(4), 2(4), 3(1), 5(2), 6(1), 9(3), 12(1)
3 final fours with 2 titles
2 elite 8s
8 first weekend exits (3 in the first game)

In the last 9 tournaments, he has won 2 titles but only got beyond the first weekend 2 other times including this year (4 of 9 total). During that time, he had three 1 seeds and three 2 seeds. In three of those years, he had a 1 or 2 seed and didn't get to the second weekend. It is amazing if you get lucky and go on a run a couple of times over a 10 year period, how people will forget all the early exists.

Edit: just noticed I somehow posted part of a post above - sorry.

Emerson Bigguns · Mar 23, 2022

alaskaillini said:
I saw that Illini040 mentioned Jay Wright and Villanova. Here is data on them.

Villanova - Wright
16 appearances in 19 years
seeds: 1(4), 2(4), 3(1), 5(2), 6(1), 9(3), 12(1)
3 final fours with 2 titles
2 elite 8s
8 first weekend exits (3 in the first game)

In the last 9 tournaments, he has won 2 titles but only got beyond the first weekend 2 other times including this year (4 of 9 total). During that time, he had three 1 seeds and three 2 seeds. In three of those years, he had a 1 or 2 seed and didn't get to the second weekend. It is amazing if you get lucky and go on a run a couple of times over a 10 year period, how people will forget all the early exists.

Edit: just noticed I somehow posted part of a post above - sorry.

Single elimination tournaments lead to a lot of variance in results. Not only does the best team not always win, it’s routine.
That said, we played some of our worst basketball in March. Everyone associated with the team has to own that. There are a million contributing variables, but that is the truth.
Last year’s round of 32 game was a complete disaster. Plenty of blame to go around…
This year, I don’t blame the players or coaches. I think they did all that could be done. Physically, we were a mess. We had a very difficult path, and didn’t get help from an upset. Everyone played in the last game & no one had the answer.
Only one team goes home happy. It just wasn’t our year.

logjam · Mar 23, 2022

alaskaillini said:
To address those claims that BU has massively underperformed in the tourney, I dug out some data on blue bloods - Duke, N Car and Kansas - and MSU (because Izzo is arguably one of the best tourney coaches based upon results). This data is for last 20 years with one year cancelled due to Covid.

MSU - Izzo
19 appearances in 19 years
seeds: 1(1), 2(3), 3(2), 4(1), 5(3), 6(1), 7(4), 9(2), 10(1), 11(1)
5 final fours
2 elite 8s
9 first weekend exits (5 in first game)

Duke - Coach K
18 appearances in 19 years
seeds: 1(7), 2(7), 3(2), 4(1), 6(1)
3 final fours w/ 2 of those ending in titles
3 elite 8s
5 first weekend exits (3 in first game)

Kansas - Self
18 appearances in 18 years (only coached 19 years at Kansas)
seeds: 1(9), 2(3), 3(3), 4(3)
3 final fours ending in 1 title
5 elite 8s
7 first weekend exits (2 in first game)

N Carolina - Williams
17 appearances in 18 years (only 19 years at NC)
seeds: 1(8), 2(1), 3(1), 4(1), 6(2), 8(3)
5 final fours ending in 3 titles
3 elite 8s
6 first weekend exits (1 in first game)

So the best in the business combined total:

72 appearances
16 final fours (with 6 titles)
13 elite 8s
27 first weekend exits (11 in the first game) with all of the teams/coaches having had back-to-back first weekend losses at some point

To be successful in the tourney, you need to get there a lot, and with highly rated teams. The best teams in the business lose over 30% of their time in the first weekend often (more than 20% of the time) as a top 4 seed. Before giving hot takes over whether Underwood is a good tourney coach, people might want to consider (1) the data is pretty slim at this point, (2) Illinois is not a blueblood program full of McDAAs and (3) he has proven he can coach during the regular season.

Just some food for thought.

Dang...I'm impressed with the research...must be the dark time up there

. Seriously thanks.

PNWIllini · Mar 24, 2022

logjam said:
Dang...I'm impressed with the research...must be the dark time up there . Seriously thanks.

So Underwood is filling in those required “First weekend exits” fine .. we just need him to proceed to Elite 8 and Final 4 and winning titles.

So far seems like he’s got the program right on schedule.

Redbull · Mar 24, 2022

Bigtex said:
Or wouldn’t it have been great if they played and contributed and we beat Ohio st at home

Williams 2 points 2 rebounds in 26 minutes

Or beat Purdue at home:

Williams 3 points 6 rebounds 4 assists in 45 minutes
Goode same 3 points 1 rebound in 6 minutes RJ DNP

And won b1g outright

Or lost at Northwestern
DMW last few seconds rebound and slam
Or lost vs PSU
DMW leading scorer
Or a number of other games when DMW was needed to guard their best or second best scorer

And we didn’t get a share of the title

Illini in OC · Mar 24, 2022

PNWIllini said:
So Underwood is filling in those required “First weekend exits” fine .. we just need him to proceed to Elite 8 and Final 4 and winning titles.

So far seems like he’s got the program right on schedule.

I appreciate the sarcasm but anyone who thinks we are not on the right track is just wrong.
Adding to Alaska's analysis... here is what I found on the interweb for results since 2000 for some noteworthy programs..

Winning in the tournament is a crap shoot. Success prior to March doesn't guarantee success in March. Just keep showing up and eventually it will happen. BU's train is barely leaving the station... let's look again in 10 years.

FrankNitty30 · Mar 24, 2022

skyIdub said:
JAF (just actual fact)....he did win.

Are you suggesting that he should have forgone a B1G Championship in favor of "developing" freshmen and sophomores with more playing time in place of the seniors?

Before you answer that, are you suggesting that the freshmen and sophomores weren't developing in the roles they had?

Hopefully people here learn that losing one game in a 'one and done' tourney (vs. very worthy opponents with little preparation time) has less to do with convoluted fan interpretations of "success" or a successful season, and more to do with random factors at the time of the game. (injuries, illness, matchups etc)

It literally plays out every year in March. Teams that "should" win, don't.....and then everyone clamors for a reason other than "we got outplayed for one game".

Brad is not only doing "his job"....he's literally doing it better than any coach in Illinois basketball history for the last three years.

If you are going to give credit to having the players (Ayo, Kofi, Trent) that led you there.....it's silly to avoid giving the coach the same or even more credit for guiding them there....especially given what he had to guide them through over this year...as well as the pandemic realted shutdowns and bubble tourney.

This

RockfordIllini · Mar 24, 2022

FrankNitty30 said:
This

Just to pile it on a bit more, the freshman did play and did contribute and aren’t the reason we lost to UH. Is the argument something like had the freshmen played more during the season they would have each scored 20+ and we would have beaten UH? Seems unlikely.

HailtotheChief · Mar 24, 2022

ptgrd23 said:
Both Pods and RJ showed they could create their own shot. We needed offense badly vs IU UTchat and Houston. Cant wait till next year

When did Podz do this? Not saying he couldn't but I didn't see it. I don't think BU would've like Podz going one on one trying to create his own shot. That wasn't part of his plan and I didn't see it at all.

Champaignheat · Mar 24, 2022

I agree. Not sure about the Podz creating as much as some others. I think he is certainly a hustler, but he was a typical freshman.

alaskaillini · Mar 24, 2022

logjam said:
Dang...I'm impressed with the research...must be the dark time up there . Seriously thanks.

Actually, it is equinox, so we Alaskans now have as much daylight, and more twilight than the rest of you (sun comes up at less of an angle to horizon due to lattitude). Snow is now breaking up - it is a mess.
It didn't take me that long - went to ESPN page for each team and scrolled through last 20 years schedules. You can actually still get the game recap for any game within that timeframe there. ESPN is at least good for something.

alaskaillini · Mar 24, 2022

Illini in OC said:
View attachment 16608

I appreciate the sarcasm but anyone who thinks we are not on the right track is just wrong.
Adding to Alaska's analysis... here is what I found on the interweb for results since 2000 for some noteworthy programs..
View attachment 16609
Winning in the tournament is a crap shoot. Success prior to March doesn't guarantee success in March. Just keep showing up and eventually it will happen. BU's train is barely leaving the station... let's look again in 10 years.

The bolded is the most important observation in all this.

Illini Basketball

In. The. Alley.